Opinions - Turkey

Turkey's Bet on Syria: All in for HTS

Turkey's Bet on Syria: All in for HTS

by Mustafa Enes Esen, published on 5 January 2025
Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) faces significant challenges in governing Syria's deeply fractured society. Several reports of arbitrary killings of Alawites and skirmishes between different sects show that the Syrian government is in the early phases of power consolidation. Despite the many uncertainties clouding Syria's future, the Turkish government is fully committing its support to the country’s new government.
Shifting Geopolitics of Turkey-Israel Relations After Assad

Shifting Geopolitics of Turkey-Israel Relations After Assad

by Haşim Tekineş, published on 20 December 2024
The fall of the Assad regime marks a critical juncture in regional geopolitics, fundamentally altering the dynamics between Turkey and Israel. Historically, their relationship has oscillated between pragmatic alliances and ideological rifts. Yet, with their common enemy removed, the regional balance of power has shifted, creating new challenges and testing the resilience of their already fragile ties.
Turkey’s Prospects in Syria Depend on Peace

Turkey’s Prospects in Syria Depend on Peace

by Mustafa Enes Esen, published on 12 December 2024
Both Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the YPG are classified as terrorist organizations by Turkey, yet these two groups have consolidated power across the Syrian landscape in the last couple of weeks. Nonetheless, the joy has been palpable both among Turkey's decision-makers and within the broader public, following the triumph of the HTS.
Ankara Eyes Opportunities Amid Syria’s Turmoil

Ankara Eyes Opportunities Amid Syria’s Turmoil

by Mustafa Enes Esen, published on 1 December 2024
Syrian rebel forces launched their largest offensive against the Assad government in years on Wednesday, capturing Aleppo and advancing south toward Hama. While it is clear that Ankara had prior knowledge of the Syrian opposition’s offensive, dubbed "Stopping the Aggression," it appears to have underestimated the scale and rapidity of the regime’s collapse in Aleppo.
Turkish-American Relations in the Biden Era: A Pragmatic Stability

Turkish-American Relations in the Biden Era: A Pragmatic Stability

by Haşim Tekineş, published on 28 November 2024
The Biden administration marked in a period of relative stability for Turkish-American relations, despite limited personal engagement between President Biden and Turkish President Erdoğan. While the absence of direct presidential rapport marked a significant departure from the Trump era’s personal diplomacy, institutional ties under Biden remained resilient and productive.
The Intelligence Community’s Growing Hold on Turkey’s Foreign Ministry

The Intelligence Community’s Growing Hold on Turkey’s Foreign Ministry

by Mustafa Enes Esen, published on 16 November 2024
Under the leadership of Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, Turkey's Ministry of Foreign Affairs is seeing a noteworthy shift, with a growing number of senior positions now occupied by National Intelligence Organization (MIT) officers and political appointees. This transformation is reshaping the ministry’s traditional role, aligning it more closely with intelligence and security functions than with conventional diplomatic practices.

Reports - Turkey

Turkey's Vision For a New Syria

Turkey's Vision For a New Syria

by Mustafa Enes Esen, Haşim Tekineş, Mehmet Demirbaş and Servet Akman, published on 14 February 2026
This report analyzes Turkey’s vision for Syria following the fall of the Assad family and the rise of the HTS under the leadership of Ahmad al-Sharaa. In this regard, it focuses on the foreign actors that, alongside Turkey, now have the greatest ability to shape Syria’s future: namely the United States and Israel.
Electrifying Turkey's Roads: EV Adoption Scenarios & Their Impact on Oil Imports

Electrifying Turkey's Roads: EV Adoption Scenarios & Their Impact on Oil Imports

by Baki Kaya, Ömer Güler, Harun Güngör, and Mustafa Enes Esen, published on 10 September 2025
This study evaluates, through long-term projections to 2053, the potential impact of increased EV penetration on Turkey’s energy landscape. It provides a comparative assessment of how changes in the share of EVs within the total vehicle fleet, across several scenario frameworks, could influence fuel demand and petroleum import volumes. A second, closely related objective is to measure the scale of Turkey’s oil dependency in order to establish a basis for examining its policy implications.
Geopolitical Constraints of Turkey's Energy Hub Ambitions

Geopolitical Constraints of Turkey's Energy Hub Ambitions

by Mustafa Enes Esen, published on 8 July 2025
This study focuses on the geopolitical dimensions and constraints shaping Turkey’s ambition to become a natural gas hub. The emphasis is on Turkey’s diplomatic relations with key supplier countries, the political instability across the wider Middle East, and the limited capacity of neighboring states to produce and export gas reliably—factors that collectively can make or undermine Turkey’s hub ambitions.
MODERNIZING THE TURKEY–EU CUSTOMS UNION: ISSUES AND PROSPECTS

MODERNIZING THE TURKEY–EU CUSTOMS UNION: ISSUES AND PROSPECTS

by instituDE, published in March 2025
The Turkey–EU Customs Union, established in 1995, has been a defining feature of trade relations between Turkey and the European Union. Over the past three decades, the global economic landscape has evolved significantly, necessitating a modernization of the agreement to address new trade realities, regulatory developments, and emerging geopolitical challenges.
TURKEY‘S MASS PURGE AS VIOLATIONS OF THE RIGHT TO PARTICIPATE IN PUBLIC SERVICE IN ICCPR

TURKEY‘S MASS PURGE AS VIOLATIONS OF THE RIGHT TO PARTICIPATE IN PUBLIC SERVICE IN ICCPR

by instituDE, published on 23 October 2024
'A gift from God' was one of Erdoğan's first descriptions related to coup attempt in July 15. At first no one realized that God's gift meant a chaotic environment in which he needed to declare a national emergency with no checks and balances and then transform Türkiye’s parliamentary democracy into an executive presidency.
JUDICIAL CORRUPTION IN TÜRKİYE

JUDICIAL CORRUPTION IN TÜRKİYE

by instituDE and Arrested Lawyers, published on October 2024
This submission to the Universal Periodic Review (UPR) highlights severe issues undermining the integrity of Türkiye's judiciary, particularly focusing on rampant judicial corruption and impunity as well as human rights abuses which they facilitate. Based on the most recent incidents of corruption concerning members of the judiciary who serve in courts in Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara, this report seeks to examine the high-level corruption within the judiciary and the Turkish government’s failure or even willful ignorance in addressing it.

Videos - Turkey

Gazze ve İnstagram

August 10, 2024
by Haşim Tekineş, Ali Dinçer and Harun R. Halisoğlu, published on 18 August 2024
Ali Dinçer, Harun Reşit Halisoğlu ve Haşim Tekineş Türkiye'nin Uluslararası Adalet Divanı'nda görülen #Gazze soykırım davasına müdahil olmasını, #CHP'nin #Paris çıkarmasını, #İngiltere'de yaşanan sokak olaylarını ve Türkiye'de bu hafta getirilen #İnstagram yasağını ele aldılar.

Haftanın Ortası - Suikastler, Savaşlar ve Seçimler

August 1, 2024
by Ali Dinçer and Haşim Tekineş, published on 1 August 2024
Ali Dinçer ve Haşim Tekineş'in haftanın öne çıkan uluslararası gündemlerini ele aldıkları yeni yayınımızda, İsrail'in Hamas liderlerine yönelik suikast saldırıları, Erdoğan'ın İsrail'e yönelik açıklamaları, bölgesel savaş senaryoları ve ABD seçim sürecine ilişkin son gelişmeler değerlendirildi.

Trump Turkiye'ye Ne Yapar?

July 18, 2024
by Haşim Tekineş, published on 18 July 2024
ABD Başkanlık Seçimlerini kazanacağı tahmin edilen Trump'ın 2. dönemi beraberinde neler getirecek? instituDE dış politika analisti Haşim Tekineş yanıtladı.

Hakan Fidan'dan Çin'in Uygur Politikasına Destek

June 18, 2024
by Haşim Tekineş, published on 17 June 2024
#DışGündem'de instituDE Dış Politika Analisti Haşim Tekineş, #HakanFidan'ın 3-5 Haziran tarihlerinde #Çin ve #Uygur bölgesine yaptığı ziyareti çeşitli boyutlarıyle ele aldı.

AİHM ve Yalçınkaya Kararından Şüphelenmeli Miyiz?

April 26, 2024
by Hakan Kaplankaya and Mehmet Bozkaya, published on 26 April 2024
Hukuk Günlüğü'nün yeni bölümünde Hakan Kaplankaya ve Mehmet Bozkaya AİHM ve Yalçınkaya kararı hakkındaki şüphe ve tereddütleri ele aldılar.

Erdoğan ve Biden Arasında Soğuk Rüzgarlar Mı Esiyor?

April 22, 2024
by Haşim Tekineş and Ömer Murat, published on 22 April 2024
instituDE DışGündem'de Dış Politika Uzmanı Ömer Murat, Erdoğan ve Biden arasındaki soğukluğa, Erdoğan'ın Vaşington ziyaretinin iptaline, Rasmussen planının detaylarına ve İran ile İsrail arasındaki savaş tiyatrosuna ilişkin Haşim Tekineş'in sorularını yanıtladı.