Opinions - Turkey

Turkey's Bet on Syria: All in for HTS

Turkey's Bet on Syria: All in for HTS

by Mustafa Enes Esen, published on 5 January 2025
Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) faces significant challenges in governing Syria's deeply fractured society. Several reports of arbitrary killings of Alawites and skirmishes between different sects show that the Syrian government is in the early phases of power consolidation. Despite the many uncertainties clouding Syria's future, the Turkish government is fully committing its support to the country’s new government.
Shifting Geopolitics of Turkey-Israel Relations After Assad

Shifting Geopolitics of Turkey-Israel Relations After Assad

by Haşim Tekineş, published on 20 December 2024
The fall of the Assad regime marks a critical juncture in regional geopolitics, fundamentally altering the dynamics between Turkey and Israel. Historically, their relationship has oscillated between pragmatic alliances and ideological rifts. Yet, with their common enemy removed, the regional balance of power has shifted, creating new challenges and testing the resilience of their already fragile ties.
Turkey’s Prospects in Syria Depend on Peace

Turkey’s Prospects in Syria Depend on Peace

by Mustafa Enes Esen, published on 12 December 2024
Both Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the YPG are classified as terrorist organizations by Turkey, yet these two groups have consolidated power across the Syrian landscape in the last couple of weeks. Nonetheless, the joy has been palpable both among Turkey's decision-makers and within the broader public, following the triumph of the HTS.
Ankara Eyes Opportunities Amid Syria’s Turmoil

Ankara Eyes Opportunities Amid Syria’s Turmoil

by Mustafa Enes Esen, published on 1 December 2024
Syrian rebel forces launched their largest offensive against the Assad government in years on Wednesday, capturing Aleppo and advancing south toward Hama. While it is clear that Ankara had prior knowledge of the Syrian opposition’s offensive, dubbed "Stopping the Aggression," it appears to have underestimated the scale and rapidity of the regime’s collapse in Aleppo.
Turkish-American Relations in the Biden Era: A Pragmatic Stability

Turkish-American Relations in the Biden Era: A Pragmatic Stability

by Haşim Tekineş, published on 28 November 2024
The Biden administration marked in a period of relative stability for Turkish-American relations, despite limited personal engagement between President Biden and Turkish President Erdoğan. While the absence of direct presidential rapport marked a significant departure from the Trump era’s personal diplomacy, institutional ties under Biden remained resilient and productive.
The Intelligence Community’s Growing Hold on Turkey’s Foreign Ministry

The Intelligence Community’s Growing Hold on Turkey’s Foreign Ministry

by Mustafa Enes Esen, published on 16 November 2024
Under the leadership of Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, Turkey's Ministry of Foreign Affairs is seeing a noteworthy shift, with a growing number of senior positions now occupied by National Intelligence Organization (MIT) officers and political appointees. This transformation is reshaping the ministry’s traditional role, aligning it more closely with intelligence and security functions than with conventional diplomatic practices.

Reports - Turkey

Turkey's Vision For a New Syria

Turkey's Vision For a New Syria

by Mustafa Enes Esen, Haşim Tekineş, Mehmet Demirbaş and Servet Akman, published on 14 February 2026
This report analyzes Turkey’s vision for Syria following the fall of the Assad family and the rise of the HTS under the leadership of Ahmad al-Sharaa. In this regard, it focuses on the foreign actors that, alongside Turkey, now have the greatest ability to shape Syria’s future: namely the United States and Israel.
Electrifying Turkey's Roads: EV Adoption Scenarios & Their Impact on Oil Imports

Electrifying Turkey's Roads: EV Adoption Scenarios & Their Impact on Oil Imports

by Baki Kaya, Ömer Güler, Harun Güngör, and Mustafa Enes Esen, published on 10 September 2025
This study evaluates, through long-term projections to 2053, the potential impact of increased EV penetration on Turkey’s energy landscape. It provides a comparative assessment of how changes in the share of EVs within the total vehicle fleet, across several scenario frameworks, could influence fuel demand and petroleum import volumes. A second, closely related objective is to measure the scale of Turkey’s oil dependency in order to establish a basis for examining its policy implications.
Geopolitical Constraints of Turkey's Energy Hub Ambitions

Geopolitical Constraints of Turkey's Energy Hub Ambitions

by Mustafa Enes Esen, published on 8 July 2025
This study focuses on the geopolitical dimensions and constraints shaping Turkey’s ambition to become a natural gas hub. The emphasis is on Turkey’s diplomatic relations with key supplier countries, the political instability across the wider Middle East, and the limited capacity of neighboring states to produce and export gas reliably—factors that collectively can make or undermine Turkey’s hub ambitions.
MODERNIZING THE TURKEY–EU CUSTOMS UNION: ISSUES AND PROSPECTS

MODERNIZING THE TURKEY–EU CUSTOMS UNION: ISSUES AND PROSPECTS

by instituDE, published in March 2025
The Turkey–EU Customs Union, established in 1995, has been a defining feature of trade relations between Turkey and the European Union. Over the past three decades, the global economic landscape has evolved significantly, necessitating a modernization of the agreement to address new trade realities, regulatory developments, and emerging geopolitical challenges.
TURKEY‘S MASS PURGE AS VIOLATIONS OF THE RIGHT TO PARTICIPATE IN PUBLIC SERVICE IN ICCPR

TURKEY‘S MASS PURGE AS VIOLATIONS OF THE RIGHT TO PARTICIPATE IN PUBLIC SERVICE IN ICCPR

by instituDE, published on 23 October 2024
'A gift from God' was one of Erdoğan's first descriptions related to coup attempt in July 15. At first no one realized that God's gift meant a chaotic environment in which he needed to declare a national emergency with no checks and balances and then transform Türkiye’s parliamentary democracy into an executive presidency.
JUDICIAL CORRUPTION IN TÜRKİYE

JUDICIAL CORRUPTION IN TÜRKİYE

by instituDE and Arrested Lawyers, published on October 2024
This submission to the Universal Periodic Review (UPR) highlights severe issues undermining the integrity of Türkiye's judiciary, particularly focusing on rampant judicial corruption and impunity as well as human rights abuses which they facilitate. Based on the most recent incidents of corruption concerning members of the judiciary who serve in courts in Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara, this report seeks to examine the high-level corruption within the judiciary and the Turkish government’s failure or even willful ignorance in addressing it.

Videos - Turkey

BM Akın Öztürk'ü Haklı Buldu!

February 14, 2025
by Hakan Kaplankaya and Haşim Tekineş, published on 14 February 2025
İnsan Hakları Uzmanı Hakan Kaplankaya ve instituDE Analisti Haşim Tekineş Birleşmiş Milletler Keyfi Tutuklamalar Çalışma Grubu'nun Akın Öztürk hakkında verdiği tutuklanmasının haksızlığına, keyfi olduğuna ve maddi temeli bulunmadığına dair ihlal kararını ele aldılar. Kararda insanlığa karşı suçlara ada atıf yapılması önemli.

AİHM'den Yunanistan Puschbacklerine İhlal Kararı | Yasak Başvurusu Büyük Dairede

January 8, 2025
by Haşim Tekineş and Hakan Kaplankaya, published on 8 January 2025
Bu yayınımızda insan hakları uzmanı Hakan Kaplankaya ve instituDE analisti Haşim Tekineş AİHM'in Yunanistan'ın Türkiye'ye geri ittiği sığınmacılar hakkında verdiği yeni ihlal kararını, Yasak başvurusunun Büyük Daire'ye sevkedilmesini ele aldılar.

Halep Düştü! Dengeler Değişti, Türkiye’yi Ne Bekliyor?

December 2, 2024
Halep'in düşmesi ne anlama geliyor? Suriye yeniden dünya gündemine oturdu. Esad rejimi son yıllarda elde ettiği kazanımları kaybetmiş oldu. Peki bu Türkiye'nin hesaplamalarını nasıl etkileyecek? Ankara - Şam normalleşme girişimleri bu gelişmeden nasıl etkilenecek? Türkiye - Rusya ilişkileri ve Türkiye - İran ilişkileri nereye evrilecek? Bu gelimeleri ve daha fazlasını instituDE'den Dış Politika Analisti Haşim Tekineş sizler için analiz etti.

Erdoğan'dan Trump Hazırlıkları

November 22, 2024
instituDE'nin bu yayınında Ali Dinçer ve Haşim Tekineş, ABD Başkanlık seçimlerini kazanan Yeni Başkan Donald Trump'la şekillenecek ABD dış politikasında ne gibi değişiklikler olacağını, Ortadoğu'daki ülkelerin Trump'a yönelik politika değişiklerini, Erdoğan'ın da Trump yönetimine yönelik dış poliitika hazırlıklarını, İsrail-Hamas ekseninde Türkiye'nin duruşunu ve Rusya-Ukrayna savaşında son dönemde yaşanan gelişmelerle savaşan taraflara dışardan verilen destekleri ve olası sonuçlarını ele aldılar.

İran'a Karşı Türkiye-İsrail Cephesi mi?

October 31, 2024
Bu yayınımızda Ali Dinçer ve Haşim Tekineş Türkiye'de güdeme gelen gelişmeleri okumanın ve anlamlandırmanın güçlüğünü, çözüm süreci konuşuluyorken Tusaş'a yönelik PKK saldırısı yaşanması ve CHPli Esenyurt Belediye Başkanı'nın gözlatın alınarak yerine kayyum atanmasını, bu gelişmelere dair dış etkenleri, İran'ı zayıflatan gelişmeler karşısında Türkiye'nin konumlanma ve yeni olgulara hazırlanma olasılığını, İsrail'in İran'a yönelik misilleme saldırısını ve 5 Kasım'da yapılacak ABD başkanlık seçimlerinde son durumu ele aldılar.

Ankara'nın Göbeğinde Terör

October 24, 2024
instituDE'nin bu yayınında Ali Dinçer ve Haşim Tekineş, TUSAŞ'a yönelik terör saldırısını, Türkiye'nin BRICS üyelik başvurusunu ve İsrail'in Hamas ve Hizbullah'a yönelik savaşlarına dair vaziyeti ele aldılar.