Negotiations are currently underway to end the war in Ukraine and to strike a new nuclear deal with Iran. Given this proximity and high stakes for Turkey, it would seem natural for Ankara to play a role in these diplomatic efforts. Yet despite closely monitoring developments in both theaters, Turkey remains notably absent from the negotiation tables. Several reasons help explain why.

Recent Israeli airstrikes on military infrastructure in Homs, Hama, and Damascus—coupled with accusations that Ankara is attempting to transform Syria into a Turkish protectorate—underscore the extent to which Israeli officials perceive Turkey’s involvement in Syria as a threat. Ankara argues that the Israeli military strikes are undermining regional stability and counterterrorism efforts against ISIS. But behind this rhetoric lies a much deeper strategic divergence.

The arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu on charges of corruption and aiding a terrorist group, has sent shockwaves through Turkey. While opposition leaders decry the move as a "coup against our next president," the reaction from Western capitals has been notably restrained or absent.

When the idea of a European army resurfaces, Turkey often emerges as a potential partner. Its strategic location and military capabilities make it an attractive ally. Turkey’s democratic shortcomings have long blocked its EU membership bid, yet it might still play a key role in a new European defense framework. But is Erdoğan’s Turkey a reliable partner or a wildcard?

In a landmark agreement, the Syrian government and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have reached a deal on March 10. At the heart of the deal is the integration of all civil and military institutions in northeastern Syria into the administration of the Syrian state. Nonetheless, the agreement’s intentionally vague language on military integration suggests that key issues remain unresolved, with implications for Turkey and the US.

Trump’ın yeniden seçilmesiyle ABD’nin Avrupa’ya yönelik tutumundaki değişim, Avrupa’nın savunma ve ekonomik bağımsızlık arayışlarını hızlandırıyor. Ekonomik alanda ABD, müttefiklerine yüksek gümrük tarifeleri uygularken, savunma alanında ise Rusya karşısında Avrupa’yı kendi kaderine terk edebileceğinin sinyallerini veriyor. Avrupa’nın askeri kapasitesini artırması zaman alacağından, Türkiye’nin bu süreçteki rolü önem kazanıyor.

In the past year, through our various publications, analyses and podcasts, instituDE has strived to shed light on Turkey; its domestic politics, economy, foreign policy and human rights situation. We have worked to provide valuable information and comments on Turkey for the foreign observers as well as the Turkish public. We put effort into raising awareness on the human rights violations and authoritarian practices in Turkey.