Opinions - Middle East and North Africa

What the SDF’s Miscalculations Meant for Turkey and Syria

by Mustafa Enes Esen, published on 19 January 2026

The ceasefire signed on January 18 between Damascus and the SDF was not the product of prolonged bargaining or mutual compromise. It was imposed by developments on the ground that had already stripped the SDF of its bargaining power. As such, the ceasefire agreement formalizes the collapse of the March 10 deal and largely marks the end of the SDF’s ability to shape outcomes in Syria.

An Iranian Collapse Would Pose Security Risks for Azerbaijan

by Rufat Ahmadzada, published on 14 January 2026

The protests in Iran are continuing to escalate. What started as a protest by traders against the fall in the value of the local currency, rising prices, economic mismanagement and worsening economic conditions in the country has quickly transformed into a growing movement for political change. This is evident from the chants of protestors and is threatening the legitimacy of the ruling clerical regime.

Syria’s Fate Still Hinges on Trump

by Haşim Tekineş, published on 13 January 2026

Videos showed fighting erupting in residential areas as civilians fled en masse, while green buses later transported defeated fighters out of the city under a mediated evacuation arrangement. The Aleppo clashes in early January 2026 brought back grim memories of Syria's civil war, even as the new government in Damascus, led by President Ahmad al-Sharaa, claimed another military win against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Aleppo.

The Role of Ideas in Turkey's Syria Policy: Disillusionment with Ideology or Transformation?

by Haşim Tekineş, published on 7 January 2026

Turkey’s Syria policy is often portrayed as a case of foreign policy failure driven by ideology. According to this view, Ankara abandoned realism in favor of Islamist enthusiasm during the Arab Spring and later returned to pragmatism after paying significant political and strategic costs. While this narrative highlights an important shift, it relies on a simplified understanding of the relationship between ideas and foreign policy.

How Syria and Gaza Affect the Divide Between Israel and Turkey

by Servet Akman, published on 6 January 2026

The fall of the Assad regime in Syria has opened a new chapter in Turkish–Israeli relations. For a long time, the Assad regime was a major security concern for Turkey. For Israel, it was “the devil they knew.” Israel focused on containing the Assad regime and Iran’s proxies, while Turkey’s military presence in Syria remained a secondary issue.

Syria’s Way Ahead: Prospects for a Ruined Economy

by Mehmet Demirbaş, published on 5 January 2025

On the eve of the civil war, Syria was a lower-middle-income country with steady growth and relatively stable macroeconomic indicators. Between 2000 and 2010, real GDP grew by an average of 4.8 percent annually, inflation averaged 4.9 percent. Trade accounted for 64 percent of GDP, and GDP per capita stood at 2,731 dollars in 2010.

Reports - Middle East and North Africa

Turkey's Vision For a New Syria

by Mustafa Enes Esen, Haşim Tekineş, Mehmet Demirbaş and Servet Akman, published on 14 February 2026

This report analyzes Turkey’s vision for Syria following the fall of the Assad family and the rise of the HTS under the leadership of Ahmad al-Sharaa. In this regard, it focuses on the foreign actors that, alongside Turkey, now have the greatest ability to shape Syria’s future: namely the United States and Israel.

Videos - Middle East and North Africa

Oil, Power, and Politics: Inside the Turkey-Iraq Pipeline War

July 28, 2025

Haşim Tekineş

by Haşim Tekineş, published on 28 July 2025

In this video, we break down the complex dispute between Turkey, Iraq, and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) over the Kirkuk-Ceyhan oil pipeline.

Suriye Türkiye için Zafer mi Zaafiyet mi?

July 17, 2025

Haşim Tekineş

by Haşim Tekineş, published on 17 July 2025

Suriye'de artan gerilim bir kere daha bölgedeki dengelerin nezaketini ortaya koydu. İsrail ise Şam'ı vurarak Suriye konusunda kararlılığını ortaya koydu? Türkiye nasıl cevap verecek?

İran'ın 13. Günü

July 13, 2025

Haşim Tekineş

Mehmet Akif Koç

by Haşim Tekineş and Mehmet Akif Koç, published on 13 July 2025/

İran'ın İsrail'le yaşadığı askeri gerilim İran'ı nasıl etkiledi?

Israel vs. Iran: What It Means for Turkey

June 26, 2025

Haşim Tekineş

by Haşim Tekineş, published on 26 June 2025

In this in-depth analysis, we explore how Turkey is responding to the Israel–Iran war and what it means for Ankara’s security, its role in the Middle East, and its delicate balance between its alliances and rivalries. From Turkey’s historical neutrality in regional conflicts to its growing tensions with both Israel and Iran, this video takes a closer look at the biggest geopolitical shift in the Middle East — and how it could redefine Turkey’s future.

İran ve İsrail Arasında Rusya

June 25, 2025

Haşim Tekineş

Kerim Has

by Haşim Tekineş and Kerim Has, published on 25 June 2025

Bu hafta instituDE'nin konuğu Dr. Kerim Has, İran-İsrail krizinde Rusya'nın pozisyonunu analiz ediyor.

Trump ve İran-İsrail Gerilimi

June 19, 2025

Haşim Tekineş

by Haşim Tekineş, published on 19 June 2025

Trump İran ve İsrail arasındaki gerilime katılıp katılmama konusunda yol ayrımında.