Opinions - Middle East and North Africa

What the SDF’s Miscalculations Meant for Turkey and Syria

by Mustafa Enes Esen, published on 19 January 2026

The ceasefire signed on January 18 between Damascus and the SDF was not the product of prolonged bargaining or mutual compromise. It was imposed by developments on the ground that had already stripped the SDF of its bargaining power. As such, the ceasefire agreement formalizes the collapse of the March 10 deal and largely marks the end of the SDF’s ability to shape outcomes in Syria.

An Iranian Collapse Would Pose Security Risks for Azerbaijan

by Rufat Ahmadzada, published on 14 January 2026

The protests in Iran are continuing to escalate. What started as a protest by traders against the fall in the value of the local currency, rising prices, economic mismanagement and worsening economic conditions in the country has quickly transformed into a growing movement for political change. This is evident from the chants of protestors and is threatening the legitimacy of the ruling clerical regime.

Syria’s Fate Still Hinges on Trump

by Haşim Tekineş, published on 13 January 2026

Videos showed fighting erupting in residential areas as civilians fled en masse, while green buses later transported defeated fighters out of the city under a mediated evacuation arrangement. The Aleppo clashes in early January 2026 brought back grim memories of Syria's civil war, even as the new government in Damascus, led by President Ahmad al-Sharaa, claimed another military win against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Aleppo.

The Role of Ideas in Turkey's Syria Policy: Disillusionment with Ideology or Transformation?

by Haşim Tekineş, published on 7 January 2026

Turkey’s Syria policy is often portrayed as a case of foreign policy failure driven by ideology. According to this view, Ankara abandoned realism in favor of Islamist enthusiasm during the Arab Spring and later returned to pragmatism after paying significant political and strategic costs. While this narrative highlights an important shift, it relies on a simplified understanding of the relationship between ideas and foreign policy.

How Syria and Gaza Affect the Divide Between Israel and Turkey

by Servet Akman, published on 6 January 2026

The fall of the Assad regime in Syria has opened a new chapter in Turkish–Israeli relations. For a long time, the Assad regime was a major security concern for Turkey. For Israel, it was “the devil they knew.” Israel focused on containing the Assad regime and Iran’s proxies, while Turkey’s military presence in Syria remained a secondary issue.

Syria’s Way Ahead: Prospects for a Ruined Economy

by Mehmet Demirbaş, published on 5 January 2025

On the eve of the civil war, Syria was a lower-middle-income country with steady growth and relatively stable macroeconomic indicators. Between 2000 and 2010, real GDP grew by an average of 4.8 percent annually, inflation averaged 4.9 percent. Trade accounted for 64 percent of GDP, and GDP per capita stood at 2,731 dollars in 2010.

Reports - Middle East and North Africa

Turkey's Vision For a New Syria

by Mustafa Enes Esen, Haşim Tekineş, Mehmet Demirbaş and Servet Akman, published on 14 February 2026

This report analyzes Turkey’s vision for Syria following the fall of the Assad family and the rise of the HTS under the leadership of Ahmad al-Sharaa. In this regard, it focuses on the foreign actors that, alongside Turkey, now have the greatest ability to shape Syria’s future: namely the United States and Israel.

Videos - Middle East and North Africa

Gazze ve İnstagram

August 10, 2024

Haşim Tekineş

Ali Dinçer

Harun Reşit Halisoğlu

by Haşim Tekineş, Ali Dinçer and Harun R. Halisoğlu, published on 18 August 2024

Ali Dinçer, Harun Reşit Halisoğlu ve Haşim Tekineş Türkiye'nin Uluslararası Adalet Divanı'nda görülen #Gazze soykırım davasına müdahil olmasını, #CHP'nin #Paris çıkarmasını, #İngiltere'de yaşanan sokak olaylarını ve Türkiye'de bu hafta getirilen #İnstagram yasağını ele aldılar.

Haftanın Ortası - Suikastler, Savaşlar ve Seçimler

August 1, 2024

Ali Dinçer

Haşim Tekineş

by Ali Dinçer and Haşim Tekineş, published on 1 August 2024

Ali Dinçer ve Haşim Tekineş'in haftanın öne çıkan uluslararası gündemlerini ele aldıkları yeni yayınımızda, İsrail'in Hamas liderlerine yönelik suikast saldırıları, Erdoğan'ın İsrail'e yönelik açıklamaları, bölgesel savaş senaryoları ve ABD seçim sürecine ilişkin son gelişmeler değerlendirildi.

Haftanın özeti: Trump'a Suikast Girişimi, İngiltere'de Yeni İktidar ve Suriye'yle Normalleşme

July 20, 2024

Haşim Tekineş

Ali Dinçer

by Haşim Tekineş and Ali Dinçer, published on 20 July 2024

Ali Dinçer ve Haşim Tekineş Trump'ın suikastten kurtulmasının ardından kazanma olasılığının çok yüksek görülmesini, #İngiltere'de kurulan yeni hükümet ve sağ partilerin durumunu ve Türkiye-#Suriye normalleşme sürecini ele aldılar.

BOP: Nedir Bu Büyük Orta Doğu Projesi

June 26, 2024

Haşim Tekineş

by Haşim Tekineş, published on 26 June 2024

instituDE Dış Politika Analisti Haşim Tekineş Büyük Orta Doğu Projesi'nin ne anlama geldiğini ve içeriğini ele aldı.

Future of Terrorism in the Era of Hegemonic Rivalry

May 1, 2024

Haşim Tekineş

Hasim Tekines discussed the current state of radical terrorism, particularly ISIS and al-Qaeda with Research Associate Professor Dr. Mahmut Cengiz.

Ortadoğu Isınırken 3. Dünya Savaşına Ne Kadar Yakınız?

April 20, 2024

Haşim Tekineş

Ramazan F. Güzel'in hazırladığı Tv FOCUS GÜNDEM KONUĞU: Dış Politika Uzmanı/ Institute for Diplomacy Economy'den Dış Politika Uzmanı Haşim Tekineş @hasimtekines : İran İsrail geriliminin perde arkasında yaşananlar, - Yaşananlar bir tiyatro muydu, yoksa başka dinamikler mi var? - Gerilimin İran, İsrail, Netanyahu, Molla Rejimi için kazanımları ve Filistin'in konumu. - Gerilim bölgeye sıçrayıp bir 3. Dünya Savaşına yol açar mı, bunu isteyenler var mı? - Böyle bir savaştan Türkiye nasıl etkilenir ve neler yapmalı...?