The latest unrest in Syria was precipitated by the circulation of a voice recording, allegedly made by a member of the Druze community, that insulted the Prophet Muhammad. The violence initially erupted in Jaramana and subsequently spread to Sahnaya, a predominantly Druze area on the outskirts of Damascus.

Negotiations are currently underway to end the war in Ukraine and to strike a new nuclear deal with Iran. Given this proximity and high stakes for Turkey, it would seem natural for Ankara to play a role in these diplomatic efforts. Yet despite closely monitoring developments in both theaters, Turkey remains notably absent from the negotiation tables. Several reasons help explain why.

Tunus Asliye Ceza Mahkemesi’nde görülen ve aralarında çok sayıda muhalif siyasetçi, eski kamu görevlisi, iş insanı ve avukat bulunan dokuzu tutuklu 40 kadar sanığın yargılandığı “devlet güvenliği aleyhine komplo” davasının 18 Nisan 2025 tarihinde yapılan karar duruşmasında, mahkeme sanıklar hakkında dört ila 66 yıl arasında değişen hapis cezaları verdi.

Önümüzdeki aylarda başka ülkelerde de yeni savaşların başlama tehlikesi bulunuyor. Bu tehlikenin en yüksek olduğu ülkeleri sırasıyla Güney Sudan, Yemen ve İran teşkil ediyor.

Recent Israeli airstrikes on military infrastructure in Homs, Hama, and Damascus—coupled with accusations that Ankara is attempting to transform Syria into a Turkish protectorate—underscore the extent to which Israeli officials perceive Turkey’s involvement in Syria as a threat. Ankara argues that the Israeli military strikes are undermining regional stability and counterterrorism efforts against ISIS. But behind this rhetoric lies a much deeper strategic divergence.

In a landmark agreement, the Syrian government and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have reached a deal on March 10. At the heart of the deal is the integration of all civil and military institutions in northeastern Syria into the administration of the Syrian state. Nonetheless, the agreement’s intentionally vague language on military integration suggests that key issues remain unresolved, with implications for Turkey and the US.