
The U.S. Midterms and Erdoğan's Lost Bet
by Dr. İmdat Öner, published on 7 November 2026
The results of the U.S. midterm elections exceeded even the most optimistic Democratic forecasts. What had been anticipated as a blue wave became, in effect, a blue tsunami. For Turkey, the outcome carries particular significance. Over the last decade, Ankara has built its Washington strategy largely on Erdoğan's personal rapport with Trump rather than on institutional ties with Congress. A weakened U.S. president facing a more assertive legislature, where distrust of Erdoğan cuts across party lines, leaves that strategy exposed.