Israel’s superior air power and strike capabilities during the 12-Day War exposed Iran’s structural weaknesses. Yet the consequences of this confrontation extend well beyond the battlefield. The war has acted as a catalyst, accelerating trends already present inside Iran and pushing the political system into a phase of recalibration. 

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) emerged as a dominant military and territorial actor in eastern Syria following the U.S.-led campaign against ISIS. Their control of large areas has created sustained tension with Turkey, which views the SDF as an extension of the PKK. Turkey’s opposition to an independent SDF military structure, alongside Damascus’s efforts to reassert authority in eastern Syria, has made the status of the YPG, the SDF’s armed wing, a central issue in the negotiations, including the most recent talks in December.

President Donald Trump has issued an executive order to designate several chapters of the Muslim Brotherhood as terrorist organizations. The order is a reflection of sustained lobbying by the United Arab Emirates and Israel, with support from other Arab governments. While the designation reflects regional geopolitical pressures more than U.S. domestic concerns, it will nevertheless create complications for Turkey and Qatar, both of which maintain close ties with the movement.

Birleşmiş Milletler Güvenlik Konseyi (BMGK), 17 Kasım'da basında ABD Başkanı Donald Trump'ın adıyla anılan 20 maddelik Gazze "Kapsamlı Planı"nı onayladı (2803/2025). Buna göre geçici bir uluslararası istikrar gücü (International Stabilisation Force, ISF) kurulması ve Gazze’nin yeniden inşasını koordine edecek bir Barış Kurulu (Board of Peace, BoP) oluşturulması kabul edildi.

The foreign ministers of Turkey and Egypt met in Ankara on Wednesday for the first session of the Joint Planning Group. Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty was also received by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Such routine meetings, which Turkey holds with many countries, provide a useful moment to review where relations stand and how current dynamics may shape future cooperation.

The bilateral relationship between Turkey and Israel have experienced its ebbs and flows, but since the war in Gaza, the trajectory has remained mostly downward. The Trump administration has so far exerted pressure on Israel and Turkey to settle their differences. Yet this does not mean that the worsening of relations with Israel comes without costs for Turkey.

This report analyzes Turkey’s vision for Syria following the fall of the Assad family and the rise of the HTS under the leadership of Ahmad al-Sharaa. In this regard, it focuses on the foreign actors that, alongside Turkey, now have the greatest ability to shape Syria’s future: namely the United States and Israel.