Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s arrival at Baku airport marked a new low in recent Turkish-Azerbaijani relations. Fidan had travelled to attend the summit of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA), which brings together heads of state. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan did not attend, possibly in protest against harsh remarks from Baku.

There is an old, unforgiving rule in financial markets: when the relationship between risk and return appears to have broken down, it is rarely the risk that has disappeared. More often, it is the market's willingness to recognize it.

By activating the collective defense mechanism, the Turkish government is not only joining a war in Yemen but also becoming part of a regional conflict that could have much larger consequences than Ankara anticipates. As this regional war drags on, the stakes will rise for all parties, pushing them to take greater risks. Ankara may therefore find that what begins as a limited military deployment in Saudi Arabia ultimately ends centuries of relative peace between Turkey and Iran.

On October 5, 2026, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan agreed in Riyadh "to move immediately to the practical implementation of the collective defense commitments" under the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement. The decision puts the pact to its first real test and raises the question of how far Turkey is prepared to go in Saudi Arabia's defense. Our experts weigh in.

Last week, Saudi Arabia called an urgent meeting of the military chiefs of Turkey and Pakistan under the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, as Houthi attacks on the kingdom intensified. When the chiefs met in Riyadh on September 25, they discussed intelligence sharing, military coordination and the integration of defense capabilities. The meeting has renewed the question of whether Turkey could be drawn into the war in Yemen.

Over the weekend of September 11–13, Yemen's Houthis captured the Red Sea port of Mocha and the island of Perim, completing their takeover of Yemen's Red Sea coast and increasing their control over the Bab al-Mandeb strait. Saudi Arabia was forced to shut down a critical oil pipeline that had become one of the kingdom's principal outlets to the sea after Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

It has been five years since the failed coup attempt in Turkey and no one has any clear idea yet what actually happened that night. While the complete narrative and evidence about the failed coup have yet to be clarified, the scope of the reaction by the Turkish government to the coup attempt was quite horrifying.

In the past year, through our various publications, analyses and podcasts, instituDE has strived to shed light on Turkey; its domestic politics, economy, foreign policy and human rights situation. We have worked to provide valuable information and comments on Turkey for the foreign observers as well as the Turkish public. We put effort into raising awareness on the human rights violations and authoritarian practices in Turkey.