Opinions - Middle East and North Africa

What Comes Next in the U.S./Israel–Iran Conflict? Mapping the Escalation Trajectory

by Mehmet Akif Koç, published on 6 April 2026

While it remains too early to fully assess the long-term consequences of the Gaza war, one outcome is obvious: whatever Hamas hoped to achieve on October 7, the fallout has significantly undermined Iran's quasi-hegemonic position in the region.

The Causes of the Iran War and the Prospects for a Ceasefire

by Mehmet Akif Koç, published on 4 April 2026

The Prussian general and military theorist Carl von Clausewitz famously defined war not merely as an act of violence, but as "the continuation of politics by other means" — an extension of diplomacy rather than its abandonment. Wars are not fought to satisfy some destructive impulse, nor do states enter conflict for its own sake.

IRAN’S DRONE STRIKES ON NAKHCHIVAN SERVED AS A TEST OF AZERBAIJAN'S RESOLVE

by Rufat Ahmadzada, published on 23 March 2026

Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan exclave contains neither U.S. nor other foreign military bases, contrary to the Iranian official narrative. What motivated the Iranian regime to target a civilian airport and a school in Nakhchivan on 5 March?

İran’a kara harekatı senaryosu: %55 savaş, %45 ateşkes

by instituDE, published on 23 March 2026

Bu hafta içi uzmanlarımızla bir anket daha yaptık. Katılımcılara 1- İran’da rejim yıkılır mı, 2- Yakın dönemde bir ateşkes olur mu, 3- ABD kara harekatı yapar ve savaş uzar mı diye soruldu.

When THAAD Leaves: The Risks to South Korea’s Missile Defense and What Washington, Tokyo, and Seoul Must Do Next

by Ju Hyung Kim, published on 16 March 2026

The redeployment of U.S. missile defense assets, including Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) batteries and Patriot systems from South Korea to the Middle East has triggered understandable concern in Seoul.

Collateral Allies: Why the Gulf States Are Paying the Price for the War with Iran

By Sidra Shaukat, published on 10 March 2026

On Saturday morning, February 28, white contrails streaked across the blue skies above Abu Dhabi. They were not passenger jets. They were Iranian ballistic missiles. Within 24 hours, six Gulf States (Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman) had all been struck, even though not one of them had fired a single shot at Iran. Apart from military installations, luxury hotels and airports were also targeted by Iran.

Reports - Middle East and North Africa

Turkey's Vision For a New Syria

by Mustafa Enes Esen, Haşim Tekineş, Mehmet Demirbaş and Servet Akman, published on 14 February 2026

This report analyzes Turkey’s vision for Syria following the fall of the Assad family and the rise of the HTS under the leadership of Ahmad al-Sharaa. In this regard, it focuses on the foreign actors that, alongside Turkey, now have the greatest ability to shape Syria’s future: namely the United States and Israel.

Videos - Middle East and North Africa

İran'ın 13. Günü

July 13, 2025

Haşim Tekineş

Mehmet Akif Koç

by Haşim Tekineş and Mehmet Akif Koç, published on 13 July 2025/

İran'ın İsrail'le yaşadığı askeri gerilim İran'ı nasıl etkiledi?

Israel vs. Iran: What It Means for Turkey

June 26, 2025

Haşim Tekineş

by Haşim Tekineş, published on 26 June 2025

In this in-depth analysis, we explore how Turkey is responding to the Israel–Iran war and what it means for Ankara’s security, its role in the Middle East, and its delicate balance between its alliances and rivalries. From Turkey’s historical neutrality in regional conflicts to its growing tensions with both Israel and Iran, this video takes a closer look at the biggest geopolitical shift in the Middle East — and how it could redefine Turkey’s future.

İran ve İsrail Arasında Rusya

June 25, 2025

Haşim Tekineş

Kerim Has

by Haşim Tekineş and Kerim Has, published on 25 June 2025

Bu hafta instituDE'nin konuğu Dr. Kerim Has, İran-İsrail krizinde Rusya'nın pozisyonunu analiz ediyor.

Trump ve İran-İsrail Gerilimi

June 19, 2025

Haşim Tekineş

by Haşim Tekineş, published on 19 June 2025

Trump İran ve İsrail arasındaki gerilime katılıp katılmama konusunda yol ayrımında.

Suriye'de Zamana Karşı Yarış!

May 3, 2025

Haşim Tekineş

by Haşim Tekineş, published on 3 May 2025

instituDE Dış Politika Analisti Haşim Tekineş Suriye'de son haftalarda yaşanan gelişmeleri, ana aktörlerin oyun planlarını ve ülkedeki dengeleri ele aldı

Is a Turkey-Israel Clash Coming?

April 9, 2025

Haşim Tekineş

by Haşim Tekineş, published on 9 April 2025

In this video, we break down the rising tensions between Turkey and Israel following the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. As Ankara emerges as the dominant power in post-war Syria, Israel grows increasingly concerned about Turkish influence spreading across the region.