Recent Israeli airstrikes on military infrastructure in Homs, Hama, and Damascus—coupled with accusations that Ankara is attempting to transform Syria into a Turkish protectorate—underscore the extent to which Israeli officials perceive Turkey’s involvement in Syria as a threat. Ankara argues that the Israeli military strikes are undermining regional stability and counterterrorism efforts against ISIS. But behind this rhetoric lies a much deeper strategic divergence.

In a landmark agreement, the Syrian government and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have reached a deal on March 10. At the heart of the deal is the integration of all civil and military institutions in northeastern Syria into the administration of the Syrian state. Nonetheless, the agreement’s intentionally vague language on military integration suggests that key issues remain unresolved, with implications for Turkey and the US.

ABD Başkanı Donald Trump 19 Ocak'ta henüz resmen göreve başlamadan Gazze'de bir ateşkes sağlanmasına katkıda bulundu. İsrailliler, rehinelerin bir bölümünün serbest bırakılmasıyla sevinç gösterileri düzenlerken, savaş nedeniyle yüzde 90'ı evlerini terk etmek zorunda kalan ve en az 47 bin kişinin hayatını kaybettiği Gazze'de ilk kez nispeten sakin bir ortam oluştu. Öte yandan, Trump, ateşkes anlaşmasının üzerinden yalnızca birkaç gün geçtikten sonra, Gazze’deki Filistinlilerin komşu ülkelere yerleştirilmesini öngören tartışmalı bir planı gündeme getirdi.

Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) faces significant challenges in governing Syria's deeply fractured society. Several reports of arbitrary killings of Alawites and skirmishes between different sects show that the Syrian government is in the early phases of power consolidation. Despite the many uncertainties clouding Syria's future, the Turkish government is fully committing its support to the country’s new government.

The fall of the Assad regime marks a critical juncture in regional geopolitics, fundamentally altering the dynamics between Turkey and Israel. Historically, their relationship has oscillated between pragmatic alliances and ideological rifts. Yet, with their common enemy removed, the regional balance of power has shifted, creating new challenges and testing the resilience of their already fragile ties.

Both Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the YPG are classified as terrorist organizations by Turkey, yet these two groups have consolidated power across the Syrian landscape in the last couple of weeks. Nonetheless, the joy has been palpable both among Turkey's decision-makers and within the broader public, following the triumph of the HTS.

This report analyzes Turkey’s vision for Syria following the fall of the Assad family and the rise of the HTS under the leadership of Ahmad al-Sharaa. In this regard, it focuses on the foreign actors that, alongside Turkey, now have the greatest ability to shape Syria’s future: namely the United States and Israel.