ANALYSIS
"How Syria and Gaza Affect the Divide Between Israel and Turkey" by Servet Akman, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
Compared to Turkey’s more ambitious plans, Israel’s strategic objectives in Syria are easier to achieve. After all, building a new nation is far harder than fueling divisions in an already vulnerable country. Turkey and Israel have serious doubts about each other’s intentions. Yet, both sides are aware of the costs of such a direct confrontation. This has led them to engage in de-escalation talks, making a direct military clash less likely. Overall, Syria is evolving into a geopolitical challenge for Israel and Turkey, with each pursuing conflicting agendas. These differences are hard to align and will remain a persistent source of tension between Turkey and Israel.
"The Role of Ideas in Turkey's Syria Policy: Disillusionment with Ideology or Transformation?" by Hasim Tekines, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
The comparison between Turkey’s Syria policy in 2011 and 2025 reveals a fundamental shift in how Ankara understood the region, power, and its own capacity to shape outcomes. Early in the conflict, Turkish decision-makers interpreted the Arab Spring as a historically corrective process that aligned moral legitimacy with strategic interest. This view sustained ambitious policies despite mounting costs and unfavorable developments. Over time, however, prolonged conflict, external intervention, and direct security threats undermined these assumptions and reduced the explanatory power of earlier ideas.
By the time Assad was overthrown, Ankara was no longer framing Syria as a site of regional transformation but as a problem requiring careful management. Islamist language persisted, yet it no longer defined policy expectations or alliance choices. Turkey’s foreign policy had become more flexible, transactional, and risk-averse, reflecting a new set of ideas about stability, threat, and influence.
POLITICS
Erdogan Sues CHP Leader Over Trump Claims
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan filed a 500,000 lira defamation lawsuit against the leader of Turkey’s main opposition party after the opposition leader alleged that US President Donald Trump was threatening Erdogan over his personal assets.
Erdogan’s lawyer, Huseyin Aydin, said in a statement on X that the lawsuit was filed with an Ankara civil court over remarks made by Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader Ozgur Ozel at a rally in Istanbul’s Beykoz district on January 7. At the rally, Ozel said Erdogan was acting out of concern for his personal future rather than Turkey’s national interest and claimed Trump was pressuring the president through threats related to his wealth.
Aydin added that they also filed a criminal complaint with prosecutors on accusations of insulting the president.
Three Opposition Lawmakers Defect to Erdogan’s AK Party
Three lawmakers elected from opposition lists in Turkey’s 2023 general election joined President Erdogan's ruling Justice and Development Party on January 7, including a former member of the main opposition Republican People’s Party.
At the AK Party’s parliamentary group meeting in Ankara, Erdogan personally pinned party badges on Hasan Ufuk Cakir, a former CHP lawmaker from Mersin; Irfan Karatutlu from the Democracy and Progress Party; and Isa Mesih Sahin from the Future Party.
Speaking to the AK Party group, Sahin said political paths may diverge but eventually “meet in the same sea,” pledging to work tirelessly for what he called a “strong Turkey” under Erdogan’s leadership.
Karatutlu said he had already supported the government “in mind and conscience” and was now formalizing that support, adding that “this is the time to stand with our president.”
Cakir said he had faced slander and injustice but had “never bowed his head,” arguing that positions are temporary while honour is permanent. He described Erdogan as one of Turkey’s two commanders in chief, alongside Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, and ended his remarks with a military salute.
DEM Party Urges Concrete Steps on Kurdish Peace Process
Tulay Hatimogullari, co-chair of the pro-Kurdish DEM Party, said on January 6 that what she described as a historic opportunity for peace has not translated into concrete political action. She warned that the government is managing the process through uncertainty and deliberate delay.
Speaking at her party’s weekly parliamentary group meeting, Hatimogullari stated that the government has not taken steps commensurate with recent developments regarding the Kurdish issue.
“The process cannot be left to uncertainty, stretched over time or reduced to statements of intent,” Hatimogullari said. “Peace can only advance through concrete democratic reforms passed by parliament.”
Turkish Court Sentences Demirtas to 18 Months for Insulting Erdogan
A Turkish court on January 6 sentenced jailed Kurdish politician Selahattin Demirtas to one and a half years in prison on charges of insulting President Erdogan.
Demirtas did not attend the hearing and was represented by his lawyer.
The court based the conviction on remarks Demirtas made in two speeches delivered in Mersin and Diyarbakir in 2015. In those speeches, he accused Erdogan and then prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu of supporting the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, Jabhat al Nusra and Ahrar al Sham. He alleged that the government provided the groups with weapons, funding and logistical support.
ECONOMY
Annual Inflation Eases to 30.89 Percent in December
Turkey’s annual inflation slowed to 30.89 percent in December, marking a fourth straight monthly decline and falling sharply from 44.4 percent a year earlier, official figures released on January 5 showed. The reading matched the central bank's expectations, after it projected year-end inflation of about 31 to 33 percent.
The Turkish Statistical Institute said the 12-month annual average inflation rate for 2025 stood at 34.9 percent, down from 58.5 percent in 2024.
ENAG, a group of independent economists, reported a higher year-on-year inflation estimate of 56.14 percent for December.
Turkey M&A Volume Doubled in 2025 to $11.81B
The value of mergers and acquisitions in Turkey reached $11.81 billion in 2025, excluding privatizations, Turkey’s competition authority revealed on January 8, marking a doubling in volume from 2024.
In a statement, the antitrust authority said it reviewed 416 merger, acquisition, and privatization transactions in 2025, recording the largest annual transaction volume since it began publishing the data in 2013.
Turkey Proposes Raising Minimum Pension to 20,000 Lira
The ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) submitted a bill to parliament on January 9 to raise the minimum pension to 20,000 Turkish lira, effective January 2026. Party parliamentary group chair Abdullah Guler acknowledged the limitations of the increase, stating that while the amount may not be sufficient, the national economy and budget are stretched to their limits.
The proposal increases the minimum pension from 16,881 lira to 20,000 lira, a 18.47 per cent increase. Guler said the measure requires a transfer of 69.5 billion lira, approximately 1.6 billion dollars, from the central budget.
Parliament’s Planning and Budget Committee expects to debate the proposal next week before sending it to the floor for a final vote. If the bill does not pass before January payments go out, the government will pay the 3,119 lira difference retroactively once the law takes effect.
Turkey’s TPAO Signs MoU With Exxon Mobil Affiliate for Exploration Talks
The Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO), Turkey’s state-owned oil and gas company, signed a memorandum of understanding in Istanbul on January 8 with Exxon Mobil affiliate ESSO Exploration International Limited to explore potential cooperation on oil and natural gas exploration in new areas in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean, Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar announced.
The minister said the agreement aims to combine TPAO’s technical capabilities in deep-sea exploration and drilling with ExxonMobil’s international experience to boost operational effectiveness and support discoveries.
Dongfeng in Talks to Produce Passenger Cars in Turkey
China’s Dongfeng Motor is negotiating with an investor to produce passenger cars in Turkey, according to the company’s Turkish distributor. “We are working hard to begin production this year,” Yavuz Cirak, CEO of Dongfeng’s local distributor Marcar and a participant in the talks, said in a statement.
The investor has already secured a production facility, though the statement noted that talks are ongoing and a final investment decision is not yet guaranteed, Cirak added.
Turkish Police Detain 70 in Grand Bazaar Money Laundering Probe
Turkish police have detained 70 people in a money laundering investigation linked to Istanbul’s Grand Bazaar, prosecutors said on January 6.
The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office said officers initially detained 68 of 80 suspects sought in the case during simultaneous raids in Istanbul and 14 other provinces. Authorities later captured two more suspects, raising the total number of detainees to 70.
In a written statement, prosecutors said the suspects obtained funds through foreign exchange-style investment schemes, cyber-enabled fraud and illegal online betting. Authorities alleged the money was funnelled through front companies and personal bank accounts into the formal banking system, then transferred to cryptocurrency companies and sent abroad.
Prosecutors requested the arrest of 53 suspects and the imposition of judicial control measures on 17 others. The court ordered the arrest of 44 suspects and placed 26 under judicial supervision.
SCZone Signs $5.6M Deal With Turkish Firm to Build Garment Factory
The Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone) signed a $5.6 million agreement with Turkish garment manufacturer Eroglu Moda Tekstil to establish a ready-made garments factory in the Qantara West Industrial Zone, the authority revealed on January 5.
The fully self-financed project will be built on a 5,700-square-meter site and is expected to create about 700 direct jobs once it becomes operational.
The factory will produce ready-made garments and denim items with an annual capacity of up to one million pieces. SCZone said about 95% of output will be exported, while the remaining 5% will be supplied to the local market.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Istanbul Bar Association Acquitted of Terrorism Charges
An Istanbul court acquitted the president of the Istanbul Bar Association and 10 executive board members of terrorism-related charges on January 9, ruling that the case failed to meet the legal threshold for conviction.
The charges stemmed from a statement the association published on December 21, 2024, which called for an effective investigation into the deaths of journalists Nazim Dastan and Cihan Bilgin in northern Syria. Prosecutors had sought prison sentences, accusing the defendants of disseminating terrorist propaganda and spreading misleading information through the press.
The Istanbul 26th High Criminal Court delivered the ruling during a hearing held inside the Marmara Prison complex in Silivri, west of Istanbul.
77 Detained in Nationwide Operations Over Gulen Movement Links
Turkish authorities detained 77 people in nationwide operations over the past two weeks for alleged links to the Gulen movement, Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya announced on January 10 in a statement posted on X.
The operations were carried out by gendarmerie units across 34 provinces. Yerlikaya said the detainees are accused of operating within what authorities describe as the movement’s so-called “current structure.” According to the minister, 43 of the 77 people taken into custody have been jailed pending trial.
FOREIGN POLICY
Report: Turkey Expected to Join Trump-Led Gaza Board of Peace
Turkey is expected to be among the countries invited to join the Gaza Board of Peace, which would oversee Gaza’s postwar governance and reconstruction, according to the US news website Axios.
Axios reported that US President Donald Trump will announce the initiative next week and will chair the body. The board is expected to include about 15 world leaders.
In addition to Turkey, the expected participants include the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt, the report said. Axios cited two US officials and two sources with direct knowledge of the plan, adding that invitations are currently being sent to key governments.
Axios also said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s agreement in a recent meeting with Trump to proceed with the second phase of the ceasefire helped clear the way for the initiative.
UNRWA to Open Ankara Office Within Weeks, Agency Chief Says
The UN agency for Palestinian refugees is set to open an office in Ankara within weeks, UNRWA chief Philippe Lazzarini said during a visit to the Turkish capital on January 8.
“We have signed the final agreement with the government of Turkey, and this time the parliament has also endorsed it,” Lazzarini told reporters.
The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) has said it is facing a dire financial crisis after a drop in voluntary contributions, which forced the agency to lay off 571 staff members in Gaza.
Erdogan Denies US Offered Maduro Exile in Turkey
Turkish President Erdogan on January 7 denied claims that the United States offered Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro exile in Turkey before his capture, saying Ankara received no such proposal.
The denial contradicts previous reports suggesting Turkey had been considered as a potential exile destination for the Venezuelan leader.
"There was no such thing. We received no information to that effect," Erdogan told reporters after a parliamentary group meeting of his ruling Justice and Development Party.
Erdogan Warns Trump Against Instability in Venezuela After US Operation
Commenting on a US operation that reportedly led to Nicolas Maduro being seized in Caracas and transferred to the United States, Turkish President Erdogan said on January 5 that he urged US President Donald Trump to prevent Venezuela from slipping into chaos or instability.
Erdogan spoke after a cabinet meeting and said he conveyed the message during a phone call with Trump. “Any attack on the sovereignty of the people and any violation of international law will generate serious complications within the international order,” Erdogan said he told Trump.
SDF Claims Turkish Drones Support Syrian Army in Aleppo Clashes
Violence broke out on January 6 in Aleppo’s predominantly Kurdish neighbourhoods of Sheikh Maqsoud, Ashrafiyah, and Bani Zaid after talks to merge the Kurdish-led SDF into Syria’s national army failed to make progress.
Turkey denied direct involvement in the Aleppo operation. On January 8, the Turkish Defense Ministry said the Syrian army was conducting the operation against the SDF in Aleppo on its own, and that Turkey would provide support if requested.
Speaking at a joint news conference in Ankara with Omani Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad al-Busaidi on January 8, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said the SDF’s determination to hold its positions “at any cost” remains the main obstacle to peace and stability in Syria. He also claimed the SDF had become “a tool” of Israeli policy, arguing that Israel benefits from division, chaos, and weakness in the region.
On January 9, Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler welcomed the Syrian army’s operation in Aleppo. He said Turkey considers Syria’s security its own and supports Syria’s fight against terrorist groups.
In contrast, a security force aligned with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces claimed Turkish Bayraktar drones are supporting the Syrian army’s operation. The group alleged that the attacks were carried out with direct support from Turkish unmanned aerial vehicles.
The SDF agreed to withdraw from Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafieh neighbourhoods after several days of clashes with the Syrian army, according to state media and local officials. SANA, Syria’s state news agency, said buses transported the remaining SDF fighters to SDF-held areas in northeastern Syria.
SDF commander Mazlum Abdi also confirmed the ceasefire and the evacuation plan in a social media statement.
Turkish FM Says Iran Protests Being Manipulated by Rivals
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said protests in Iran are being manipulated by the country’s rivals, arguing that external actors are exploiting Iran's domestic problems.
In an interview with TRT Haber on January 9, Fidan stated Iran has faced major sanctions for more than 30 years, creating economic blockages that have fueled periodic mass protests. He said Iran has real grievances and structural problems, but added that the current demonstrations are also being manipulated from abroad.
Fidan specifically pointed to Israel's foreign intelligence service, Mossad, claiming it is encouraging Iranians to protest against the country's clerical leadership through social media.
Turkey, Malaysia Deepen Defense and Maritime Cooperation During Anwar Visit
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim paid a three-day official visit to Turkey from January 6 to 8 at the invitation of President Erdogan. The two sides signed seven documents during the visit.
Speaking at a joint press conference, Erdogan said defense industry cooperation is built on a win-win framework and highlighted expanding collaboration in advanced technologies.
Anwar described Ankara as a strategic partner in Malaysia's innovation-driven growth. Turkey also awarded him the Order of the Republic, the country's highest honour for foreign leaders.
Turkey and Malaysia signed a joint declaration establishing a High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council to be co-chaired by both leaders.
The two governments also agreed to establish a 443-million-dollar joint shipyard in the southern Malaysian state of Malacca to expand cooperation in the maritime and defense industries. The Enrique of Malacca Shipyard, to be developed with Turkish shipbuilder Desan Shipyard, is expected to become operational in 2028. The facility will be built on about 9.4 hectares of coastline along the Strait of Malacca, one of the world's busiest maritime trade routes.
Separately, Desan Shipyard and Malaysia's Home Ministry signed an 83.6 million dollar contract for a second Multi-Purpose Mission Ship for the Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency. Turkish defense contractors Aselsan and Havelsan will integrate weapons, electronic and communications systems. The vessel will also include an unmanned surface vehicle developed by Desan.
Fidan Says Russia-Ukraine War May Be Near Lasting Peace
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan announced that the war between Russia and Ukraine could be nearing a lasting peace after talks on January 6 in Paris attended by Western leaders. Fidan joined the meeting on behalf of President Erdogan.
Speaking to reporters after a session of the so-called “Coalition of the Willing” on Ukraine, Fidan said he believes the sides are “quite close to a permanent peace” in a conflict that has continued for four years. He said participants are now examining several core issues that could unlock a settlement and are discussing them in detail.
Fidan said the summit brought together European leaders and senior officials from the European Union and NATO. He said the agenda included proposals to monitor the ceasefire and to take potential military steps if the truce collapses.
On the sidelines of the talks, Fidan also met Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani and US Special Envoy for Syria Tom Barrack. He said they discussed negotiations involving Syria, Israel, and the United States.
Turkey in Talks to Join Saudi-Pakistan Defense Pact
Turkey is seeking to join the defense alliance between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. The pact, signed by Saudi Arabia and Pakistan in September, says any aggression against one member would be treated as an attack on all.
The sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that talks are at an advanced stage and a deal is likely.
Erdogan Discusses Regional Issues in Calls with Saudi, UAE Leaders
President Erdogan held a telephone call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on January 5, Turkey’s Communications Directorate said.
In a statement, the directorate said the two leaders discussed Turkey-Saudi Arabia ties and regional and global issues. Erdogan told bin Salman that Turkey is closely monitoring developments in Somalia and Yemen and said Ankara is ready to contribute to efforts to bring the parties in Yemen together.
Erdogan also spoke by phone the same day with United Arab Emirates President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan, the Communications Directorate announced.
The directorate stated that Erdogan told bin Zayed that Turkey supports the territorial integrity, unity, and sovereignty of Yemen and Somalia, and stands ready to contribute to initiatives aimed at ensuring peace and stability in both countries.
.svg.avif){kind=small}
