By activating the collective defense mechanism, the Turkish government is not only joining a war in Yemen but also becoming part of a regional conflict that could have much larger consequences than Ankara anticipates. As this regional war drags on, the stakes will rise for all parties, pushing them to take greater risks. Ankara may therefore find that what begins as a limited military deployment in Saudi Arabia ultimately ends centuries of relative peace between Turkey and Iran.

On October 5, 2026, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan agreed in Riyadh "to move immediately to the practical implementation of the collective defense commitments" under the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement. The decision puts the pact to its first real test and raises the question of how far Turkey is prepared to go in Saudi Arabia's defense. Our experts weigh in.

Last week, Saudi Arabia called an urgent meeting of the military chiefs of Turkey and Pakistan under the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, as Houthi attacks on the kingdom intensified. When the chiefs met in Riyadh on September 25, they discussed intelligence sharing, military coordination and the integration of defense capabilities. The meeting has renewed the question of whether Turkey could be drawn into the war in Yemen.

Over the weekend of September 11–13, Yemen's Houthis captured the Red Sea port of Mocha and the island of Perim, completing their takeover of Yemen's Red Sea coast and increasing their control over the Bab al-Mandeb strait. Saudi Arabia was forced to shut down a critical oil pipeline that had become one of the kingdom's principal outlets to the sea after Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Israeli government is exploring closer cooperation with Japan on semiconductor technology, and Tokyo has already approved subsidies for an Israeli chip investment in Japan. The investment's importance, however, extends beyond commerce, reflecting an intent to deepen ties between the two countries.

South Korea’s first trial container voyage via the Arctic route should not be viewed simply as an experiment for faster shipping. Its genuine implication hinges on a more difficult question: how could South Korea, one of the most trade-dependent countries in the world, minimize exposure to maritime disruption without creating new geopolitical vulnerabilities?

This report analyzes Turkey’s vision for Syria following the fall of the Assad family and the rise of the HTS under the leadership of Ahmad al-Sharaa. In this regard, it focuses on the foreign actors that, alongside Turkey, now have the greatest ability to shape Syria’s future: namely the United States and Israel.