War-weary Europe is anxiously waiting for a sign of an end to the conflict in Ukraine. In 2023, the world witnessed ongoing brutal Russian aggressions, stiff Ukrainian resistance and an unsuccessful counterattack, and indecisive actions by the United States that worried European leaders who continue to support Ukraine and impose sanctions on Russia. As the war persists, its political and economic toll on the continent has escalated. Rising energy costs, inflationary pressures, and a new wave of immigrants have become stark realities, prompting increased public eagerness for peace. Yet, the cessation of fighting does not guarantee a return to the prewar status quo. Instead of passively waiting for troubles to disappear, European decision-makers must engage more deeply with the challenges at hand.
The cost of the Ukrainian war is immense for Europe. Beyond providing tens of billions of dollars in military aid to Ukrainian forces, Europe has had to decrease its energy dependency on Russia, impose sanctions, and open its doors to refugees. Despite the initial fervor surrounding the Ukrainian resistance and Churchillian spirit, the disappointing counteroffensive has dimmed hopes of swift victory against Russia. With the war expected to drag on for years, if not result in total Ukrainian defeat, the economic and political costs for Europe will continue to mount, potentially leading to a waning of European support for Ukraine.
The termination of hostilities in Ukraine alone will not resolve Europe's energy crisis unless leaders are committed to breaking their energy dependency on Moscow. The invasion in February 2022 prompted EU countries to halt gas imports from Russia, yet the subsequent impact on energy costs and inflation cannot be ignored. Reverting to Russian energy supplies is no longer an option as Russian President Putin showed how he can weaponize Russia’s energy sources to blackmail its customers. This means that European consumers will continue to pay high prices, and prices will continue to be volatile. Therefore, European leaders must prioritize completing the transition from fossil fuels and establishing alternative, stable supply chains.
A Russian defeat and withdrawal could alleviate security concerns in Europe, but such an outcome is uncertain. A Russian victory or a temporary ceasefire would provide only brief relief, as the war has significantly depleted both Russia and Ukraine. Russia, with around 90 percent of its prewar army lost, may rebuild its forces in the coming years, posing a renewed threat to Europe. Consequently, European countries must still invest in their security by building up their military capabilities and industries even after the Ukraine war.
The political gap between Europe and Russia will persist and possibly widen. The war has led to the establishment of new supply lines, reducing energy and commercial dependencies. NATO's failure to defeat Russia may embolden Moscow to adopt more aggressive policies against Europe, like airspace violations, more assertive Russian crime syndicates, intensified espionage activities, or cyber-attacks. This will also reflect upon the harmony within the EU – which is already difficult to maintain. Undistracted by the war, Moscow will be better able to manipulate the internal differences among European countries. Given Putin’s personal appetite for exacting revenge, Moscow might be more eager to teach Europe a lesson.
Moscow will also need to reestablish its authority over its traditional influence zone in eastern Europe, Caucasia, and Central Asia – the influence which has weakened with the war in Ukraine. This can lead Russia to act more aggressively towards its region and thereby force Europe to deal with more crises like Ukraine.
Moreover, post-war Ukraine will depend on Europe's economic, political, and military support for reconstruction. The European Union, having initiated the accession of Ukraine as a member, bears significant responsibility for Ukraine's recovery. This entails both economic and military commitments. A potential ceasefire will not rule out another Russian attempt to invade Ukraine. Hence, the EU will have to keep the Ukrainian army deterrent enough against Russia.
European countries must also consider Ukrainian refugees as potentially more permanent than temporary. With nearly 6 million Ukrainian refugees seeking shelter in European countries, the conflict has triggered the largest refugee crisis since World War II. While the end of the war and the reconstruction of Ukraine may encourage some refugees to return, many may choose to establish new lives in their host countries.
The war in Ukraine has proven costly for Europe, and this cost is expected to rise further. Merely waiting for the war to end will not resolve Europe's troubles. Returning to the status quo ante is no longer feasible. European leaders must take bold steps to address the continent's problems and effectively communicate their strategies to citizens. The urgency of the situation demands proactive engagement and decisive actions to navigate the complex aftermath of this conflict.
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