ANALYSIS
Report: "Electrifying Turkey's Roads: EV Adoption Scenarios & Their Impact on Oil Imports" by Baki Kaya, Ömer Güler, Harun Güngör, and Mustafa Enes Esen, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
As of 2024, EVs represent only about 1.1% of Turkey’s total automobile fleet. Although still modest in scale, EV sales have been rising in recent years, reflecting global market trends, technological advances, and shifting consumer preferences. At the same time, the rapid growth of Turkey’s overall vehicle fleet continues to drive up fuel consumption and reinforce the country’s longstanding reliance on imported oil.
Turkey’s total fuel consumption could rise to 129 million tons by 2053—more than four times the 2024 level, if the business-as-usual trajectory in which EV adoption remains stagnant. Greater EV penetration is consistently associated with a reduction in oil import growth, but even ambitious adoption rates only slow the increase in demand rather than reversing it. Under the Global Warming and Zero Emission scenario, which assumes full electrification of the vehicle fleet, automobile fuel consumption falls to nearly zero. Total fuel demand would reach 60.45 million tons, with crude oil imports at 58.97 million tons. Across all scenarios, Turkey’s oil import volumes continue to expand, driven by fleet growth and economic development. This highlights that EV adoption is not optional but essential to reduce dependency and enhance energy security.
“Turkey Between Washington and Beijing: Erdoğan’s Calculated Visit to China” by Haşim Tekineş, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
The SCO summit gave Erdoğan a chance to sit at the same table as Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Narendra Modi. For Turkey, participation signals that it is not bound to one camp and that it can build ties with rising powers beyond the transatlantic alliance.
Erdoğan’s trip to China was less about turning the East and more about hedging bets. In a world where U.S. leadership feels uncertain and China’s rise is undeniable, Turkey is determined not to be cornered. But there are limits. Economically, China is important; strategically, it is not a substitute for NATO. In a China-centered world, Turkey would be a secondary partner, not a linchpin. For all its interest in diversifying ties, Ankara still depends on Western alliances for its defense and much of its economic stability.
"Turkey Could Be Next in Israel's Cross-hairs After Qatar. The Consequences? Catastrophic" by Sinan Ciddi, Haaretz
For now, the risk of war between Israel and Turkey lies not in assassinations or rhetoric but in jousts over control of Syria. After clashes between Syria's Druze and Sunni Bedouin tribes in July, Turkey declared its willingness to provide additional military assistance against Israel, which had moved to protect Druze communities. And just two weeks ago, Israel struck and destroyed Turkish surveillance equipment in Syria.
If war did break out, beyond the immediate destruction in Syria, hostilities could spill into the Mediterranean, where Turkish naval power collides with Israel's offshore energy infrastructure. The result would be not just another Middle Eastern conflict but a strategic earthquake, destabilizing NATO, fracturing alliances and altering the balance of power.
"Ankara's New Syrian Headache" by Gonul Tol, Foreign Policy
Israel today is more militarily powerful, emboldened to reshape the region by force, and far less dependent on Turkey. For Turkish policymakers, that makes Israel the most immediate threat to Ankara's ambitions in Syria.
More troubling for Ankara, the Suwayda crisis has wrecked its own plans: the effort, backed by Turkey, to fold Syrian Kurdish forces into state structures now faces even fiercer resistance.
There is no quick fix to Ankara's mounting problems in Syria—and dusting off the old playbook won't work. What Turkey needs is a different vision altogether. Clinging to the idea of a Turkey-style centralized state ignores the reality that such a model will not produce the stability that Ankara so badly needs.
POLITICS
CHP Rallies in Ankara Ahead of Congress Trial
The main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) staged a major rally in Ankara on September 14, one day before the trial concerning the party's 38th Ordinary Congress.
Members of the CHP Youth Branch gathered in Guvenpark before marching to the rally site. Large groups of young people joined the march, chanting slogans against the government and President Erdogan. Several political parties, unions, and civil society organizations also expressed support.
Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas addressed the crowd, declaring, "With a large majority in the earliest elections, we will definitely bring true justice to this country, in a way that everyone can trust."
A letter from imprisoned presidential candidate Ekrem Imamoglu was also read during the event. Imamoglu warned, "If we cannot protect democracy, if elections lose their meaning, we will lose our historical gains as a nation, and what will be left behind will be great destruction." He urged unity to ensure election security and defend the rule of law.
CHP Chairman Ozgur Ozel accused the government of moving from "electoral authoritarianism" toward "a non-electoral dictatorship." He called for a legal amendment to allow hearings to be broadcast live on state television. Ozel also demanded early elections, proposing November 2 as the date.
Clashes Erupt at CHP Istanbul Headquarters as Tekin Takes Over
On September 8, Gursel Tekin, a longtime CHP figure recently appointed by an Istanbul court as head of a caretaker board, entered the CHP's Istanbul provincial headquarters under police escort. His arrival sparked clashes with both police and rival CHP factions, prompting officers to use tear gas and detain several people on site.
Supporters of Tekin fought with other party members at barricades outside the building, forcing police to intervene and place Tekin's backers into a police vehicle as protesters temporarily blocked its movement.
The party announced the same day that it would close the building, which riot police had surrounded since the previous evening, and that it would no longer serve as the provincial office. The party reported a new provincial headquarters address to the Istanbul Governor's Office and the Supreme Court of Appeals. The contested building is now designated as the working office of party leader Ozgur Ozel in Istanbul.
Beykoz Acting Mayor Switches Sides, Joins Erdogan's AK Party
Ozlem Vural Gurzel, the acting mayor of Istanbul's Beykoz district, officially joined President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) on September 13, just days after leaving the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP).
At a ceremony at Istanbul's Halic Congress Center, Erdogan personally welcomed Gurzel by pinning the AKP badge on her jacket.
In her speech, Gurzel thanked her new colleagues and said, "To my new family, thank you for embracing me." She added that she looked forward to working with the government to deliver services in Beykoz.
Gurzel resigned from the CHP on September 9, citing party members' insults, sexist remarks, and unbearable internal pressure. She also said she was left to deal alone with court allegations in a corruption probe targeting CHP-run municipalities, while the AKP and its ally, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), offered her backing.
Bayrampasa Mayor and 43 Staff Detained in Corruption Probe Targeting CHP
Hasan Mutlu, the mayor of Istanbul's Bayrampasa district, was detained on September 13 along with 43 municipal employees over corruption allegations in a year-long crackdown on opposition-run municipalities.
The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor's Office said it issued detention orders for 47 people on charges including embezzlement, extortion, bribery, and bid rigging. Police searched several homes and workplaces as part of the probe, which focuses on alleged irregularities in procurement and contract awards at the municipality.
CHP Chairman Ozgur Ozel, speaking in Istanbul, accused authorities of trying to "collapse" Bayrampasa Municipality. He said the investigation began with complaints related to the demolition of illegal buildings.
Ali Mahir Basarir, deputy group chair of the CHP, said using law enforcement to remove elected officials was "a declaration of war on the will of the people" and warned that voters would reject such practices at the ballot box.
MHP Leader Bahceli Calls to End Social Media, Backs Erdogan Beyond Term Limits
Devlet Bahceli, leader of Turkey's far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), has called for the eradication of social media and voiced support for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to stay in power beyond his constitutional term limit, in an interview with pro-government daily Sabah.
Bahceli said Erdogan should continue beyond 2028, despite the constitution limiting presidents to two terms. "If he runs again, we will give full support," he stated.
He also sharply criticized social media, saying, "Social media must be eradicated. If it were up to me, I would shut it down in half an hour. It destroys our families, our peace, and the upbringing of the new generation."
ECONOMY
Turkey Delays Single-Digit Inflation Goal to 2027 in New Economic Plan
Turkey's government now expects inflation to ease to 28.5% this year and 16% in 2026, before dropping to single digits in 2027—about a year later than previously forecast—according to its three-year economic roadmap unveiled on September 8.
The medium-term programme, published in the Official Gazette, also projects economic growth of 3.3% in 2024, as tight monetary policy takes effect, before gradually recovering to 3.3% in 2025, 3.8% in 2026, and returning to a trend rate of 5% in 2028.
Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz, presenting the plan in Ankara, said disinflation would continue through year-end, supported by fiscal discipline and moderate commodity prices. He noted that while authorities sometimes step in to smooth "extreme" moves in the lira, Turkey maintains a floating exchange rate regime with no fixed target.
The programme also forecasts tourism revenues climbing to $75 billion in 2028 from $64 billion this year, and exports reaching $308.5 billion in 2028 from $273.8 billion in 2024.
Unemployment is expected to remain steady at 8.5% this year and next, while the current account deficit is projected to narrow from $22.6 billion in 2024 to $18.5 billion by 2028. The budget deficit, however, is set to rise from 2,208.3 billion lira ($53.6 billion) this year to 2,805.1 billion lira in 2028.
Turkey's Central Bank Cuts Interest Rate to 40.5 Percent
Turkey's central bank lowered its main interest rate by 2.5 percentage points on September 11, reducing the one-week repo auction rate from 43 percent to 40.5 percent.
The monetary policy committee said the 250-basis-point cut came despite stronger-than-expected growth in the second quarter. "While growth exceeded projections in the second quarter, final domestic demand remained weak. Recent data suggest that demand conditions remain disinflationary," the bank stated, adding that rising food and service prices continued to put pressure on inflation.
Turkey Revives Plan to Privatize Istanbul Bridges and Highways
Turkey has revived a multibillion-dollar plan to transfer the operating rights of two iconic Istanbul bridges and several highways to private companies, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter. The potential deal could become the largest privatization in the country's history.
According to the report, the Turkish Privatization Administration recently sent requests for proposals to investment banks regarding the Bosphorus and Fatih Sultan Mehmet bridges, along with at least nine toll roads. Sources said the talks are still in an early stage, and there is no guarantee that a final agreement will be reached.
Four days later, the presidency's Directorate of Communications issued a statement denying claims of an outright sale. "The ownership of highways and bridges remains with the state. Only the right to operate and maintain them for a certain period can be transferred to the private sector," the statement said.
Turkey Secures 15 bcm LNG Supply for 2026–2028
Turkey has signed liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply agreements worth about 15 billion cubic metres (bcm) for the 2026–2028 period, Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar announced on September 10.
The deals were unveiled during the Gastech 2025 conference in Milan, where state energy company BOTAS signed contracts with eight international suppliers.
Initial agreements with BP, ENI, and Shell covered 8.7 billion cubic meters. Five additional deals signed on September 10 expanded supply to include deliveries from firms based in Britain, the U.S., Germany, Japan, and Norway.
Turkey imported around 50 bcm of natural gas in 2024, including 14.3 bcm as LNG.
Trustee Appointed to Can Holding Amid Financial Crimes Probe
Istanbul prosecutors have ordered the appointment of a trustee to oversee Can Holding, one of Turkey's largest media and education groups, and seized assets from 121 affiliated companies as part of a major financial crimes investigation. Can Holding owns major television channels, including Haberturk TV, Show TV, and Bloomberg HT, along with their online platforms. The group also operates in education, managing Istanbul Bilgi University and the Doga Koleji school chain.
The Istanbul Kucukcekmece Chief Public Prosecutor's Office launched the investigation, conducting raids targeting 10 individuals on the morning of September 11. Prosecutors are examining allegations including "establishing a criminal organization, smuggling, fraud, and money laundering." In a statement, the office said a criminal organization led by Kemal Can and Mehmet Sakir Can operated through Can Holding companies, engaging in "qualified fraud, tax evasion, and laundering of illicit funds through complex financial activities." The seized assets have been transferred to the Savings Deposit Insurance Fund (TMSF), which will act as trustee for the companies.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Turkey Tops European Court of Human Rights Pending Cases
Turkey leads all countries in pending cases at the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR), with 21,800 applications awaiting judgment, accounting for 34.7 percent of the total, according to recent court data.
The figure far exceeds the second-place country, Russia, which has 8,300 pending cases, followed by Ukraine with 7,450.
The government's broad counterterrorism laws have largely driven the surge in applications from Turkey in recent years. These laws have led to the arrest, extended pretrial detention, and conviction of thousands following the failed coup on July 15, 2016.
TMSF Sells HES Kablo to Nakkas Holding
Turkey's Savings Deposit Insurance Fund (TMSF) has sold HES Kablo, a cable manufacturer previously owned by the Boydak family, whose assets were confiscated by the government after the 2016 coup attempt, to Rize-based Nakkas Holding.
The tender took place on September 9 after several failed attempts to draw interest from buyers. Earlier tenders were cancelled because bids were considered too low. HES Kablo's market value had recently fallen to about 18.6 billion lira ($450 million).
Under the deal, Nakkas Holding purchased 30 billion shares of HES Kablo previously held by the Treasury, giving it full ownership of the company. The sale also included 21,993,325 shares of Celik Halat, representing a 27.49 percent stake in the steel wire producer.
Turkish Court Releases Youth Activist Enes Hocaogullari Pending Trial
A Turkish court on September 8 ordered the release of youth activist Enes Hocaogullari pending trial on charges including "inciting hatred," in a case that has drawn strong criticism from European institutions and rights groups. Diplomats from Western embassies, representatives from civil society, and opposition lawmakers filled the courtroom to observe the hearing.
The court ruled that Hocaogullari, 23, would be freed under judicial control measures while his trial continues. The next hearing is scheduled for February 23.
Hocaogullari had been in custody since August 5, after returning from Strasbourg, where he represented Turkey as a youth delegate at the Council of Europe. In a speech there in March, he denounced the dismissal of opposition mayors and police violence in Turkey.
FOREIGN POLICY
Russia Urges Turkey to Hand Back S-400 Systems as Supplies Run Short
The Kremlin has reportedly asked Ankara to consider selling back the S-400 missile defense systems Turkey purchased in 2017 to Russia, citing limited supply and surging global demand for its flagship air defense platforms. Turkey acquired two S-400 batteries for $2.5 billion, with deliveries completed in 2019—a move that resulted in Ankara’s removal from the F-35 fighter jet program.
Israel Targets Hamas Leaders in Qatar After Scrapping Turkey Strike
Israel carried out an airstrike on September 9 in Doha, aiming to hit political leaders of Hamas, after reconsidering a similar strike in Turkey due to the country's NATO membership, the Jewish Chronicle reported on September 11.
According to Al-Akhbar, Israeli officials had initially planned to target Hamas offices in Turkey, where several senior figures are based. The plan was reportedly abandoned over concerns that striking a NATO member could trigger a serious diplomatic crisis with Washington and other allies.
WSJ: Turkey and Egypt Warned Hamas Ahead of Israeli Strike in Doha
Turkey and Egypt warned Hamas leaders to tighten security around their meetings in the weeks before Israel's airstrike in Doha, The Wall Street Journal reported.
According to the report, at least 10 Israeli fighter jets launched long-range munitions from outside Qatari airspace, striking the building where Hamas leaders had gathered. Israeli and Arab officials told the WSJ that the meeting was held to discuss a new U.S. ceasefire and hostage-release proposal conveyed by special envoy Steve Witkoff.
Hamas figures Khalil al-Hayya and Zaher Jabarin were reportedly present. Hamas later confirmed its senior leadership survived the strike, though five lower-ranking members were killed.
Israel Strikes Syrian Sites Holding Turkish-Made Weapons
An Israeli security source told Saudi broadcaster Al-Hadath that an overnight strike on September 8 in the Syrian city of Homs targeted depots storing Turkish-made missiles and air defense equipment.
The source accused Turkey of "provoking" Israel and said Israeli officials are discussing security arrangements with Syria's new leadership while reserving the right to use force.
The strike reportedly hit areas including the Syrian Air Defense College in Homs and a barracks near Saqoubin, just north of Latakia.
Turkey Begins Training Syrian Forces Under New Security Agreement
Turkey has started training Syrian forces under a security agreement signed between the two countries in August, sources told Middle East Eye.
Around 300 Syrians—mostly soldiers and some police officers—are currently being trained at two bases in central and eastern Turkey, one source said.
A second source added that Ankara plans to train about 5,000 Syrian soldiers and police in the short term, with the number expected to reach at least 20,000 over the medium to long term.
Jordan, Syria and Turkey Sign Memorandum for Joint Transport Projects
Officials from the transport sectors of Jordan, Syria, and Turkey submitted a joint memorandum to their respective transport ministers outlining proposals to revive key regional transport projects after a trilateral meeting in Amman, Jordan's public broadcaster Al Mamlaka reported.
The proposals include reopening the Bab al-Hawa (Cilvegoz) crossing for Jordanian trucks via Syria once technical requirements are met, and reactivating the Hejazi railway line through Turkey with support for Syria's restoration efforts. Jordan would also provide technical assistance by helping maintain Syrian locomotives.
The plan further calls for tripartite cooperation to prepare technical studies for an international-standard railway linking the three countries to global trade networks. Another proposal involved strengthening the truck route from the port of Aqaba toward Turkey and Eastern Europe under a joint cooperation framework.
Israel Deploys Air Defense System to Southern Cyprus
Israel has delivered the Barak MX air defense system to southern Cyprus through Limassol port, according to local reports and eyewitness video. A citizen who filmed the arrival claimed the system was "brought into the country hidden from the public."
The move comes amid political controversy on the island. The main opposition party in Cyprus recently accused Israel of "occupying southern Cyprus" through its growing military presence.
Cyprus's government confirmed that parts of the Barak MX system are already in place, with the remainder expected to become operational in 2025. Turkey had sharply criticized the deployment, warning it could spark an arms race in the Eastern Mediterranean.
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