ANALYSIS
"Will Turkey Acquire Nuclear Weapons?" by Mustafa Enes Esen, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
For decades, Turkey has relied on NATO’s nuclear deterrence, with U.S. warheads stationed at Incirlik Air Base. But shifting regional dynamics have begun to test this arrangement. Israel’s military operations in Syria, its regional overreach, and uncertainty over NATO’s willingness to defend Turkey raise a troubling question: could Ankara rethink its nuclear stance?
For now, Ankara’s calculus rests on deterrence through alliances and advanced conventional weapons. Yet circumstances could change. If NATO’s reliability continues to erode, if regional powers embark on a nuclear arms race, or if relations with Israel become more confrontational, Turkey’s leaders might reconsider their stance on nuclear weapons. Nonetheless, as the Israeli–Iran war demonstrates, neither nuclearization nor ballistic missiles necessarily bring security. For Turkey, they could just as easily invite premature, avoidable, and potentially disastrous confrontations.
"Erdoğan and Trump: Affinity over Discord" by Marc Pierini, Carnegie Europe
Erdoğan and Trump’s meeting served both leaders’ domestic and personal agendas. For Europe, it highlights how America’s transactional approach risks sidelining allies and empowering authoritarians.
Only time will tell how much, aside from the photo op, Ankara has won in the Oval Office and at what cost. In the past nine months, the world has grown accustomed to the White House’s changes of policy direction at a moment’s notice and its appetite for praise. Erdoğan’s unexpected September 29 statement lauding Trump’s twenty-point peace plan for Gaza has already triggered serious criticism in Turkey. Similarly, whether Ankara’s involvement in future peace talks on Gaza will be acceptable to Israel remains an open question.
"From Outcast to Broker: Erdogan's Turkey Reclaims Its Role in Gaza Diplomacy" by Zvi Bar'el, Haaretz
Excluded for years – largely at Israel's insistence – from involvement in the "Palestinian issue," Turkey now seeks not only to rejoin mediation efforts but to secure a future role in Gaza's postwar administration. That ambition itself provides Hamas with a form of political reassurance.
Hamas' expectations of Turkey rest largely on Erdogan's warm relationship with Trump, whom he hopes will grant further Israeli concessions and perhaps even a written U.S. commitment guaranteeing that Israel will not resume the war after all hostages are released, and will withdraw from Gaza according to a defined timetable. Ankara may yet help the organization to continue to exist as a political movement.
"Turkey's gas shift threatens Russia and Iran's last big European market" by Can Sezer, Reuters
Diversifying supply would also strengthen Turkey's energy security and support its ambitions to become a regional gas hub. Ankara aims to re-export imported liquefied natural gas and its own gas production to Europe while burning Russian and Iranian gas domestically, analysts said.
Domestic production and contracted LNG imports are set to exceed 26 bcm annually from 2028 from 15 bcm this year, according to Reuters calculations.
That would cover more than half of Turkey's gas demand of around 53 bcm, reducing the gap for pipeline imports to around 26 bcm - well below the 41 bcm of current contracted supplies from Russia, Iran and Azerbaijan combined.
The country has built 58 bcm annual LNG import capacity, enough to cover its entire demand, according to Turkey's energy exchange.
POLITICS
Prosecutor Seeks Permission to Investigate Ankara Mayor Over Concert Expenses
The Ankara Chief Public Prosecutor's Office has requested permission from the Ministry of Interior to investigate Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas and his Chief of Staff Nevzat Uzunoglu for "abuse of office" and "neglect of supervisory duty" in connection with alleged irregularities in concert expenses.
In a written statement, Yavas said, "The Prosecutor's Office does not need permission from the Ministry to conduct an investigation. If summoned, we are ready to testify voluntarily. We have nothing to hide, nothing to hesitate about, and nothing to conceal."
As part of the ongoing investigation, five people have been arrested, while nine others were released on probation.
MHP Leader Urges Lawmakers to Visit Imrali for Talks with Ocalan
Devlet Bahceli, leader of the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) said on October 7 that members of a parliamentary commission established to oversee legal steps supporting peace efforts with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) should visit Imrali Island to meet with jailed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan.
“A group of deputies serving on the commission should go to Imrali to hold face-to-face talks. Messages should be received firsthand and shared with the public. I see no reason to hesitate,” Bahceli said.
He also urged Ocalan to make a public appeal to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and its main Kurdish militia, the People’s Protection Units (YPG), calling on them to comply with the agreement signed with the Damascus administration on March 10.
On October 11, Pervin Buldan, a member of the DEM Party's Imrali delegation, stated that a five-person team representing parties with parliamentary groups is planned to visit Ocalan. Buldan added that Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmus will not be visiting the island.
Seven Opposition Mayors Join AK Party as Former District Mayor Detained in Corruption Probe
Seven district mayors from four different opposition parties joined ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) on October 8, continuing a wave of political defections. More than 60 opposition mayors have switched sides in the past 18 months, a trend that analysts link to government pressure and arrests targeting opposition figures.
Turkish President and AK Party Chairman Recep Tayyip Erdogan personally welcomed the new members at AKP headquarters in Ankara, pinning party badges on them after a parliamentary group meeting.
Meanwhile, Turgay Erdem, 66, who served as mayor of Nilufer district from 2019 to 2024, was taken into custody at his home in the nearby Mudanya district on the morning of October 8. Authorities detained 21 people, including Erdem’s wife.
The Bursa Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office said Erdem is under investigation for “establishing and managing a criminal organization, membership in a criminal organization, bribery, and laundering assets derived from crime.”
Ankara Court Sentences 13 in Retrial Over Turkey’s 1997 ‘Postmodern Coup’
An Ankara court on October 6 sentenced 13 people, including retired generals, military officers, and a former higher education official, to 18 years in prison in a retrial over their role in the 1997 military intervention known as the February 28 “postmodern coup.”
The Ankara 5th High Criminal Court found the defendants guilty of aiding an attempt to overthrow the government after years of legal proceedings. Among those convicted were retired generals Orhan Yoney and Sukru Sariisik, along with Kemal Guruz, the former president of the Higher Education Board (YOK). The court dropped charges against three defendants who died during the course of the trial.
ECONOMY
U.S. Supreme Court Rejects Halkbank Appeal as Turkey Seeks Settlement Talks
The U.S. Supreme Court on October 6 declined to hear another appeal by Turkey’s state-owned lender Halkbank, which sought to dismiss fraud, money laundering, and conspiracy charges related to allegations of helping Iran evade U.S. economic sanctions.
By rejecting the appeal, the justices allowed a lower court’s ruling to stand, clearing the way for the U.S. government’s criminal case against the bank to proceed. Following the decision, Halkbank shares fell 10% on the Istanbul Stock Exchange.
In a statement, Halkbank said it would continue to defend its legal rights. “Initiatives to find a legal ground of conciliation within the framework of the understandings between the United States and Turkey are also ongoing in a positive direction,” the bank added.
Meanwhile, Reuters reported—citing two sources—that Turkish officials proposed a $100 million settlement during a meeting between President Donald Trump and President Erdogan at the White House last month.
According to the report, the proposal included several conditions and allowed Halkbank to avoid admitting guilt—an important point for Ankara. It remains unclear how Washington responded or whether the talks have continued since the meeting.
Opposition Lawmaker Accuses Government of Delaying Rare Earth Projects to Benefit U.S.
Deniz Yavuzyilmaz, deputy chairman from CHP has accused the government of intentionally delaying efforts to build facilities for processing newly discovered rare earth elements, alleging that the government plans to hand them over to the United States at low prices.
On October 7, Yavuzyilmaz revealed in a post on X that a 2023 audit of the state-owned mining company Eti Maden revealed that no processing plants had been established more than a decade after Turkish geologists identified the Beylikova reserves in western Eskisehir province.
He argued that the findings confirm the government never intended to develop domestic processing capacity. “These priceless minerals are being held back so they can be given away to the United States,” Yavuzyilmaz wrote in a post on X.
Turkey Eyes Rare-Earth Partnership with US in Western Anatolia
Turkey moves closer to its NATO ally, the United States, to develop rare-earth reserves in western Anatolia after talks with China and Russia slowed over disputes about technology transfer and refining rights.
Ankara and Washington are exploring a partnership to tap a large rare-earth deposit recently discovered in Beylikova, near Eskisehir in central Anatolia, according to sources familiar with the matter who spoke to Bloomberg. The site contains cerium, praseodymium, and neodymium, though the exact quality of the ore remains uncertain.
The Beylikova deposits, located in Eskisehir province, are believed to be the world’s second-largest rare-earth reserve after China. Turkey plans to build a refinery in Beylikova, where initial tests show ore with more than 1% rare-earth oxide by weight — enough to make extraction commercially viable.
In addition, Turkey is holding talks with Canada and Switzerland to explore cooperation, including feasibility studies necessary to advance the project, the sources said.
Sanctioned Venezuelan Gold Moves Through Istanbul’s Grand Bazaar
An estimated $900 million a year in sanctioned Venezuelan gold is reportedly passing through Istanbul’s Grand Bazaar, exchanged for Russian and Iranian commodities, according to the New York Post. The trade is helping to keep the economies of these sanctioned nations afloat.
International criminologists have identified a pipeline in which Venezuelan gold is sent to Turkey for refinement. While the process is legal if the gold is returned to Venezuela, experts say it rarely happens.
The gold is melted down and forged into new bullion with different serial numbers in small workshops run by retail sellers, according to Oguzhan Akin, a financial crime expert at Transparency International.
Experts say the gold is then exchanged with Iran and Russia for banned oil, with gold markets in the United Arab Emirates acting as another middleman.
Turkey Secures Over €2.6 Billion in Loans for Major Highway Projects
Turkish conglomerate Limak Holding has secured a €1.7 billion ($2 billion) loan from 14 institutions to build a new highway linking the tourism hubs of Antalya and Alanya. The new route will reduce travel time between the two southern coastal cities from two and a half hours to just 36 minutes.
About 87% of the sustainability-linked loan, with a 14-year maturity, comes from foreign-capital financial institutions. Limak will collaborate with a financing consortium that includes the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, Islamic Development Bank, Silk Road Fund, Akbank, Deutsche Bank, Garanti Bank, and Ziraat Bank.
Separately, Turkey’s planned highway connecting the capital Ankara to Delice has obtained a €974 million ($1.13 billion) loan for a total investment of €1.4 billion, Transport Minister Abdulkadir Uraloglu announced on October 8.
Speaking at the signing ceremony, Uraloglu said that 30% of the project, amounting to €417 million, will be financed through equity. The banks providing the loan include Ziraat Bank, Isbank, Yapi Kredi, and Akbank.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Former AK Party Lawmaker Arrested After Criticizing Erdogan
A former lawmaker from the AK Party was detained on the morning of October 7 after publicly accusing the party of favoritism and criticizing President Erdogan over his crackdown on rivals and critics.
Huseyin Kocabiyik’s detention followed an interview published in the Cumhuriyet daily on October 6. Kocabiyik, who served two terms in parliament before being expelled from the party in March, announced on X that he had been taken into custody. He was formally arrested later in the day. Kocabiyik’s expulsion from the party came after he strongly condemned the detention of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu on March 19.
Government Study Finds One in Eight Women in Turkey Have Faced Physical Violence
One in eight women in Turkey have experienced physical violence at some point in their lives, according to a nationwide government-backed study on violence against women.
The “Turkey Survey on Violence Against Women,” conducted by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) and Marmara University on behalf of the Ministry of Family and Social Services, interviewed 18,275 women aged 15 to 59 between November 2024 and January 2025.
The study found that 12.8% of women reported experiencing physical violence, 28.2% psychological violence, and 18.3% economic violence during their lifetime.
Divorced women reported the highest rates, with 62.1% saying they had faced psychological abuse, 42.5% economic violence, and 41.5% physical violence. Among married women, 26.4% experienced psychological violence, 19.9% economic, and 11.6% physical violence.
Regionally, physical violence was most prevalent in northeastern Anatolia, where 25.9% of women said they had experienced it, compared with just 8.8% in southeastern Anatolia — the lowest rate recorded.
The study also revealed that nearly half of the women (47.7%) who experienced violence from a partner did not tell anyone about it.
Violence Against Women in Turkey Claims 290 Lives in Nine Months
Data from the Federation of Women’s Associations of Turkey (TKDF) show that violence against women continues to take a deadly toll. According to the federation, 290 women were killed by men in the first nine months of this year, while the deaths of 71 women were classified as suspicious. Most victims were shot, and the majority were killed in their own homes.
Between January 1 and September 30, the TKDF reported that 108 women were killed by family members and 41 were murdered by men from whom they were seeking divorce. Among the victims, 125 were married, and 45% were between the ages of 19 and 35.
FOREIGN POLICY
Trump to Hold Gaza Leaders Summit in Egypt
President Trump plans to host a summit of world leaders on Gaza during his visit to Egypt on October 13, Axios reported, citing four sources familiar with the matter. The meeting will take place in Sharm el-Sheikh, where negotiations for the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal were held.
The summit is being organized by Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. Officials said leaders or foreign ministers from Germany, France, the U.K., Italy, Qatar, the UAE, Jordan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Indonesia are expected to participate. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is not expected to attend, according to a U.S. official.
Sources said the summit will likely take place on the morning of October 14, but the date could be moved to October 13.
Turkey to Join Joint Task Force as Israel and Hamas Reach Deal
Israel and Hamas agreed on October 8 to move forward with the first phase of U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan for Gaza, Trump announced on Truth Social.
The breakthrough came after indirect talks in Egypt, which produced an agreement on the initial stage of Trump’s 20-point framework aimed at restoring peace in the Palestinian enclave. Senior officials from the United States, Qatar, and Turkey joined the discussions that began on October 6 in the Egyptian resort city of Sharm el-Sheikh.
“This is a GREAT Day for the Arab and Muslim World, Israel, all surrounding Nations, and the United States of America. We thank the mediators from Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey who helped make this Historic and Unprecedented Event happen,” Trump said.
The United States announced it will deploy up to 200 troops to Israel to set up a new mission coordinating efforts in Gaza. On October 9, US officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the troops will establish a Civil-Military Coordination Center (CMCC) to monitor Gaza’s ceasefire and support humanitarian and security assistance, without entering the Palestinian territory. The mission will bring together officers from Egypt, Qatar, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates under US Central Command to coordinate aid deliveries and prevent renewed clashes.
The same day, Turkish President Erdogan said Turkey would participate in a joint task force established to monitor the Gaza ceasefire and assist in locating the bodies of Israeli hostages believed to be dead.
Speaking at the presidential palace during a ceremony marking the new academic year, Erdogan said Ankara will “closely follow the implementation on the ground” and contribute to recovery efforts linked to the first phase of the ceasefire deal.
Turkey and Syria Hold High-Level Summit in Ankara
A high-level meeting between Turkish and Syrian officials took place in Ankara on October 12. The Syrian delegation included Foreign Minister Asaad El-Sheibani, Defense Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra, and Intelligence Chief Hussein El-Salam. The Turkish delegation was led by Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, Defense Minister Yasar Guler, and MIT Chief Ibrahim Kalin.
The talks lasted about two and a half hours and focused on key topics such as counterterrorism cooperation, border security and crossings, military coordination and joint training, and intelligence sharing and coordination.
Erdoğan Calls on Syrian Kurds to Integrate with Damascus After Ceasefire Announcement
President Erdogan has urged Syrian Kurds to “complete their integration” with Syria’s new government following the announcement of a comprehensive ceasefire.
“The Syrian Democratic Forces [SDF] must keep their word. They must complete their integration with Syria,” he told Turkish journalists aboard his return flight from Azerbaijan.
Syria declared a nationwide ceasefire with Kurdish forces after a meeting on Tuesday between Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and Kurdish leader Mazloum Abdi, which came in the wake of deadly clashes in the northern city of Aleppo.
Turkey Lifts Flight Ban on Iraq’s Kurdish Region Airport
On October 9, Turkey lifted its flight ban on Sulaymaniyah International Airport in Iraq’s semiautonomous Kurdish region. The decision was announced by the office of Nechirvan Barzani, president of the Kurdish Region, following a meeting in Ankara with Turkish President Erdogan.
According to a statement from Erdogan’s office, the leaders discussed Turkey’s relations with Iraq and the Kurdish region, regional developments, and opportunities for cooperation.
In a statement, the Kurdistan Region Presidency welcomed Turkey’s decision. Turkish Airlines also confirmed the resumption of flights.
Turkey and Iraq Agree on Water Management Framework
Top diplomats from Turkey and Iraq reached a tentative agreement on October 10 on sharing water and managing declining flows in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers amid worsening drought conditions.
Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein told a joint news conference that the draft “framework” agreement on water management between the two neighbors will soon be signed in Iraq.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said, “The waters of the Euphrates and Tigris belong to all of us.” He added that he hopes water rehabilitation projects will be implemented quickly, warning, “This water shortage will continue to be a problem not only today but also for years to come.”
Kosovo Receives Turkish Drones, Draws Harsh Criticism from Serbian President
Kosovo has taken delivery of Turkish-made kamikaze drones, drawing sharp criticism from Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, who accused Ankara of destabilizing the Balkans.
Kosovar Prime Minister Albin Kurti said on October 8 that the Skydagger drones, produced by Turkish defense contractor Baykar, arrived three months ahead of schedule. Kurti personally welcomed the shipment in Pristina and noted that dozens of Kosovo Security Force personnel have already been trained to operate the systems.
Serbian President Vucic initially denounced the move as “a violation of the UN Charter and Resolution 1244,” which ended NATO’s 1999 intervention and formalized Serbia’s withdrawal from Kosovo. He said, "It is now completely clear that Turkey does not want stability in the Western Balkans and is once again dreaming of restoring the Ottoman Empire. Serbia is a small country, but we understand their real intentions."
However, Vucic later softened his stance, expressing regret over his previous accusations. "Yesterday, I reacted strongly, some would say too sharply. Turkey's behavior is of the utmost importance for the stability of this region," he said.
.svg.avif){kind=small}
