ANALYSIS
"Why Turkey Chooses Continuity Over Change in Iran" by Mustafa Enes Esen, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
Turkish policymakers, similar to some Gulf governments, are more comfortable dealing with an Iran that is constrained and partially isolated than with a country that is fully reintegrated into the Western system and able to fully use its vast economic and resource potential.
For Turkey, the strategic goal is therefore clear: prevent escalation and reduce nuclear and missile risks without triggering wider regional instability. From Ankara’s perspective, further pressure on Iran risks deepening the current shift in regional power dynamics, at a time when Israel has expanded its influence.
"Trump Is Strengthening the Logic of Authoritarianism and Nationalism in Turkey" by Halil Karaveli, Foreign Policy
Ozel may eventually replace Imamoglu as the CHP’s presidential candidate, since Imamoglu is unlikely to be freed from prison in time to run in the 2028 election. Ozel is keenly aware that winning over conservative voters is the key to electoral success. However, economic woes notwithstanding, conservatives will be prompted to return to Erdogan if the CHP fails to reassure them by matching the president as the custodian of national power.
In Trump’s world, which is governed by strength and force, nationalism—not liberalism—will resonate with voters. The CHP’s struggle against autocracy will be impaired if it fails to reassure voters that it will fight for the country’s interests. To stay relevant, the Turkish opposition will be compelled to abandon its faith in the democratic West and embrace Erdogan’s rhetoric of Turkish strength.
"The Israel-Greece-Cyprus axis: A new anti-Turkey alliance? by Sylvain Henry, The New Arab
The trilateral framework extends Israel’s strategic depth while complicating Turkish calculations, particularly in disputed maritime zones. Turkey is likely to respond through intensified naval patrols, military exercises, and diplomatic pressure, making a tense maritime space more prone to dangerous incidents and escalation.
What seems to concern Turkey most is the mounting dependence of Greece and Cyprus on Israel for the procurement of advanced arms systems - a reconfiguration that further entrenches Israel within European security architectures and exacerbates regional fault lines.
POLITICS
MHP Leader Bahceli Signals Support for Legal Path to Ocalan’s Release
Devlet Bahceli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and a key partner in President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) coalition, said on February 3 that jailed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Ocalan should be granted a legal pathway to release, and that imprisoned Kurdish politician Selahattin Demirtas should be allowed to return home.
Speaking in his weekly address to MHP lawmakers, Bahceli linked these steps to broader political reconciliation. “Until Anatolia reaches peace, Ocalan reaches hope, the Ahmets return to office, and Demirtas returns home… We are resolute in this,” he said.
With these remarks, Bahceli alluded to discussions on the “right to hope” for Ocalan, the reinstatement of Ahmet Turk and Ahmet Ozer—both removed from elected office and replaced by government-appointed trustees—and the release of former HDP co-chair Selahattin Demirtas, who remains imprisoned despite court rulings in his favor.
MHP Deputy: Turkey Commission Backs Legal Changes on "Right to Hope"
Members of a parliamentary commission working on a peace initiative involving the outlawed PKK have agreed on legal amendments that could open the way to conditional release for some prisoners serving aggravated life sentences, MHP Deputy Chairman Feti Yildiz said on February 4.
Speaking to reporters after a commission meeting, Yildiz said members reached consensus on the issue known in Turkey as the "right to hope," a term used for the possibility of eventual release under certain conditions.
After his remarks, journalist Ismail Saymaz said he spoke by phone with Yildiz to learn more details and later shared the content of the conversation on Halk TV.
Yildiz reportedly told Saymaz that Turkey's current penal and counterterrorism framework still includes legal barriers that prevent parole for those sentenced to aggravated life imprisonment, as well as for people who previously received death sentences.
He said lawmakers would need to amend the Sentencing Enforcement Law, the Counterterrorism Law, and the Turkish Penal Code. "If these provisions are amended, then the European court's decisions on the right to hope will be automatically applicable," Yildiz reportedly told Saymaz.
CHP Leader Ozel Slams Government Over Earthquake Recovery Failures
Ozgur Ozel, leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), criticized the government on February 2 for what he described as persistent failures in earthquake recovery efforts.
Speaking at a public gathering in Osmaniye, Ozel said the government failed to meet its housing pledges for the disaster region. He recalled that officials had vowed to build 650,000 housing units within a year, but claimed only a small fraction was finished by the first anniversary and about 30 percent by the end of the second year.
"Nearly 270,000 of our citizens are still living in container settlements across 11 provinces," Ozel said. He described the ongoing housing crisis as a "shameful situation" and argued that the government has nothing to boast about regarding its performance in the region.
Istanbul Court Frees Adana Mayor in Corruption Probe
An Istanbul court on February 5 ordered the release of Zeydan Karalar, the mayor of Adana Metropolitan Municipality, and eight other defendants arrested in a sweeping corruption investigation. They faced charges including extortion and money laundering in connection with businessman Aziz Ihsan Aktas, whom prosecutors accuse of leading an organized crime group that allegedly secured public contracts through bribery.
The court ruled that Karalar and the other released defendants remain subject to a travel ban, while ordering the continued detention of 24 suspects, including several opposition mayors, as the investigation proceeds.
ECONOMY
Turkey Inflation Eases Slightly to 30.65 Percent in January
Turkish annual inflation slowed marginally to 30.65 percent in January from 30.9 percent in December, according to official data released on February 3.
The Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) reported that consumer prices rose 4.84 percent on a monthly basis, a sharp acceleration from the 2.1 percent increase recorded in December. Rising costs for housing and food primarily drove this monthly surge, with food prices jumping 7.8 percent and housing costs rising 6.7 percent.
In contrast, the Inflation Research Group (ENAG), an independent body of economists, reported significantly higher figures. ENAG data showed that monthly inflation rose by 6.32 percent in January, bringing the independent estimate for annual inflation to 53.42 percent.
Turkey Taps Ernst & Young to Advise on Bridges and Highways Sale
Turkey has hired Ernst & Young LLP to oversee a multibillion-dollar privatization of two landmark Istanbul bridges and several major highways, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter. The London-based firm will advise on the sale of operating rights for the 15 July Martyrs and Fatih Sultan Mehmet bridges, along with at least nine toll roads, the sources said.
Ankara has also appointed Canada-based BTY Group as technical adviser for the transaction and plans to launch a formal tender process later this year, according to the same sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity. The government expects bids for the package to exceed $7 billion, they added.
CHP Zonguldak MP Deniz Yavuzyilmaz criticized the plan, warning that toll fees would rise by 100 percent if the privatization goes ahead. He argued that the ruling party’s “real intention” is to secure a large upfront payment ahead of upcoming elections rather than improve public finances or infrastructure management.
Turkey, Chevron Sign MOU on Oil and Gas Cooperation
Turkey has signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with US energy major Chevron to assess potential cooperation in oil and natural gas exploration and production, Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said on February 5.
In a post on X, Bayraktar said the agreement was signed in Istanbul between Turkey's state-run oil company, Turkish Petroleum Corp. (TPAO), and Chevron. He said the MOU aims to evaluate possible joint projects in Turkey and abroad. "With this memorandum, we aim to develop joint projects both in Turkey and internationally," Bayraktar said.
He added that overseas partnerships would complement ongoing exploration efforts in the Gabar region of southeastern Sirnak province and in the Black Sea. Bayraktar said the efforts support Ankara's goal of turning TPAO into a global energy company with a production capacity of 1 million barrels per day.
A day earlier, Chevron and Qatar-based Power International Holding signed an MOU with Syria to explore for oil and natural gas in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Local NGO Head Claims BYD May Drop Planned Manisa Plant
Ali Suat Ertosun, president of the Manisa Cultural and Natural Heritage Protection and Environment Association, claimed that Chinese automotive giant BYD has abandoned its planned investment in Manisa.
Citing what he described as reliable sources and insider information, Ertosun claimed the company has abandoned the project despite statements by political officials to the contrary. BYD was expected to invest about $1 billion to build an electric and plug-in hybrid vehicle production facility in Manisa, with an annual capacity of 150,000 units.
Ertosun said the facility was originally scheduled to begin operations in 2026, yet “not a single nail has been hammered” at the site so far. He added that an official announcement confirming the cancellation is expected in February or March.
HUMAN RIGHTS
HRW: Turkey Deepens Authoritarian Turn Amid Opposition Crackdown
Human Rights Watch (HRW) said the Turkish government intensified its authoritarian drift in 2025, mounting what it called an unprecedented campaign against the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) that threatened political freedoms and the integrity of elections.
In its World Report 2026: Turkey chapter, HRW said authorities tightened pressure on media and speech through government-aligned broadcasters, punitive fines and suspensions by the regulator RTUK, and prosecutions targeting journalists and public figures. HRW noted that 27 journalists and media workers were in pretrial detention or serving sentences at the time of writing. It also cited internet throttling and court-ordered content removals, including the blocking in Turkey of Imamoglu’s X account.
HRW also criticized what it described as sustained judicial harassment of lawyers and human rights defenders, as well as ongoing noncompliance with binding rulings of the European Court of Human Rights. The group pointed to the continued imprisonment of civil society figures, including Osman Kavala, despite European court rulings calling for his release in connection with the Gezi Park case.
On the Kurdish issue, HRW said the government pursued talks aimed at ending the conflict with the PKK, but warned that Ankara had yet to take steps such as reforming counterterrorism laws or releasing political prisoners. The report also cited unlawful deportations and coercive “voluntary return” practices affecting refugees and migrants, and said the government used its “year of the family” agenda to undermine women’s rights.
Rights Group: Hundreds Detained Over Protests on Syria Operations
At least 842 people were detained and 118 arrested during demonstrations across Turkey protesting the Syrian transitional government’s military operations against Kurdish-led forces in the Rojava region of northeastern Syria, according to a new report by the Association for the Freedom of Lawyers (OHD).
The group said it documented 49 separate protests in 19 provinces between January 1 and February 2. Of those detained, 133 were released under judicial supervision, while 106 reported being subjected to ill-treatment in custody. The report said at least 99 of those detained and 25 of those arrested were minors.
Speaking at a press conference, OHD executive board member Mehmet Oner said police carried out detentions arbitrarily and without concrete evidence, and that custody periods were unlawfully extended. He added that lawyers and journalists covering the demonstrations were also detained, and that some were physically assaulted.
Turkey Arrests Dozens Targeting Left-Wing Party and Journalists
In coordinated early morning operations on February 3, authorities detained numerous individuals, including Socialist Party of the Oppressed (ESP) co-chair Murat Cepni and several journalists. During the raids, police reportedly seized the equipment of the Etkin News Agency (ETHA) and blocked access to the agency’s social media accounts.
The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office stated that the investigation falls within the scope of the Marxist-Leninist Communist Party (MLKP) and announced that arrest warrants had been issued for 110 people in total.
ETHA was among the institutions targeted in the operation. All of the agency’s equipment was confiscated, and access to its digital accounts was cut off. ETHA journalists Nadiye Gurbuz, Pinar Gayip, Elif Bayburt, Muslum Koyun, and Zuleyha Muldur were detained during the raid.
On February 5, a court ordered the formal arrest of 47 people, primarily members of the left-wing ESP as well as journalists, on charges of membership in a terrorist organization and disseminating propaganda. Those arrested include former lawmaker and ESP co-chair Murat Cepni and journalists Pinar Gayip, Nadiye Gurbuz, and Elif Bayburt. Nine detainees were released pending trial.
On February 7, a Turkish court ordered the arrest of 30 additional people, bringing the total number of arrests to 77. The Istanbul Criminal Magistrate of Peace ruled that 16 other detainees be released pending trial out of 46 people referred to the court. Among those arrested was ETHA reporter Muslum Koyun, while fellow journalist Zuleyha Muldur was released pending trial.
Turkey Moves Toward Stricter Social Media Limits for Minors
Turkey is preparing to tighten controls on children’s access to social media, after a new parliamentary report this week urged sweeping measures such as age verification and content filtering.
The ruling AK Party is expected to submit draft legislation soon. The bill is likely to propose a social media ban for minors, require providers to install content-filtering systems, and expand their legal obligations on child safety online. The commission report also calls for removing certain content without prior notice and for oversight of children’s video games and toys that use artificial intelligence to screen for harmful material.
Lawmakers further recommend night-time internet restrictions for devices used by those under 18, mandatory content filtering on social media until age 18, and a complete social media ban up to age 16.
FOREIGN POLICY
Egypt, Turkey Expand Economic Agenda and Align on Regional Crises
Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan chaired the second meeting of the High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council in Cairo on February 4, where they pledged to boost bilateral trade to $15 billion by 2028.
The leaders issued a joint declaration outlining plans to strengthen cooperation in energy sectors, including electricity, green hydrogen, and nuclear power, while continuing joint work in hydrocarbons and mining. Egypt and Turkey also agreed to improve customs coordination, launch a high-level financial dialogue between their finance ministries, and strengthen regional supply-chain connectivity.
On regional issues, the two countries committed to coordinating de-escalation efforts across the Middle East and called for sustained humanitarian access to Gaza, including the reopening of the Rafah crossing. The declaration also emphasized the need for a humanitarian truce in Sudan to pave the way for a permanent ceasefire.
Turkey’s MKE Signs $350 Million Defence Export Deal with Egypt
Turkish arms supplier Mechanical and Chemical Industry Corporation (MKE) has signed a major export agreement with Egypt’s Ministry of Defence covering ammunition sales and the establishment of production lines in Egypt. The deal was signed during President Erdogan’s visit to Egypt on February 4.
Sources familiar with the agreement told Middle East Eye that the package is worth $350 million. In a statement on February 5, Turkey’s defence ministry said the state-owned MKE will export the Tolga short-range air defence system to Egypt under the agreement.
The ministry added that MKE will also set up a 155mm long-range artillery ammunition factory in Egypt, alongside production facilities for 7.62mm and 12.7mm ammunition.
Reports: Powerful Akinci Drones at Remote Egypt Base Deepen Sudan War Risks
Investigations by The New York Times and Reuters reveal that powerful Turkish-made Akinci drones are operating from East Oweinat, a remote Egyptian air base near the Sudanese border. Satellite imagery and flight-tracking data show a surge in activity at the site, including the arrival of Turkish Air Force cargo planes from Tekirdag, where these drones are tested. While officials confirm the drones are stationed in Egypt for safety, it remains unclear whether Egyptian or Sudanese forces are conducting the missions.
The deployment of the Akinci marks a sharp escalation in Sudan’s civil war, given its massive 4,500-mile range and heavy payload capacity. Experts note that the Akinci can carry three times more bombs than the older TB2 model, providing vastly superior strike capabilities. Analysts warn that the presence of these advanced weapons suggests Egypt is being drawn deeper into the neighboring conflict, significantly raising the stakes for the region.
Erdogan, Saudi Crown Prince Deepen Cooperation with New Deals
Turkish President Erdogan paid an official visit to Saudi Arabia on February 3 and met Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh, where the two leaders discussed regional and global issues, bilateral ties, energy, and defense, according to a statement from the Communications Directorate.
Erdogan said Ankara is determined to elevate Turkey–Saudi relations to a “higher level” and emphasized that Turkey will continue supporting stability in Syria while cooperating with Saudi Arabia on reconstruction efforts.
During the visit, Turkey and Saudi Arabia signed four agreements covering justice, renewable energy, the peaceful use of outer space, and cooperation in research, development, and innovation.
Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar announced a major $2 billion renewable energy investment under an intergovernmental agreement he signed with Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman.
Bayraktar said the project will ultimately reach 5,000 megawatts of renewable capacity, beginning with a 2,000‑megawatt solar power plant. The initial large‑scale solar plants—each with a capacity of 1,000 megawatts—will be built in the central provinces of Sivas and Karaman.
US Sanctions Turkish Firms and Tankers Over Iranian Oil Shipments
The US State Department on February 6 announced sanctions on dozens of entities, including Turkish petrochemical traders and 14 “shadow fleet” tankers accused of illegally transporting millions of barrels of Iranian crude oil.
In a statement, the department said the targeted vessels “have moved millions of barrels of Iranian crude oil and play a key role in the Iranian export supply chain.” The sanctions hit trade and shipping companies in 12 countries, including the United Arab Emirates, Iran, and Turkey.
Five of the blacklisted entities are based in Turkey. Four are accused of “knowingly engaging in a significant transaction” involving Iranian petrochemical products in 2024, the State Department said. They include Starex, a trading company that allegedly imported more than $8 million worth of Iranian petrochemicals.
EU, Turkey Pledge Continued Talks on Customs Union Modernization
European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos met Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan in Ankara on February 6, and the two issued a joint statement saying they would continue engagement to improve the implementation of the existing customs union and pave the way for its modernization.
The statement said both sides “shared a willingness” to work toward an updated framework that would bolster competitiveness and economic security for both sides. It added that Kos raised the rule of law and democratic standards as core elements of EU–Turkey relations and underlined the importance of preventing circumvention of EU sanctions.
In a post on her X social media account, Kos said she discussed with Fidan the steps needed to build trust, strengthen bilateral ties, advance regional infrastructure projects, and unlock the full potential of the two sides’ economic relationship.
Kos also met Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek. Following bilateral talks and delegation-level meetings, the Ministry of Treasury and Finance and the European Investment Bank (EIB) signed a letter of intent under which the EIB will provide €100 million in loans to Turk Eximbank and Development Investment Bank.
Speaking at a joint press conference, Simsek said the agreement “paves the way for broader and more ambitious cooperation between Turkey and the EIB, including green transformation projects, connectivity, and resilience,” and welcomed the bank’s renewed active role in Turkey.
Kos said a new perspective is needed to reassess Turkey–EU relations amid growing global uncertainty. “Much more than what separates Turkey and the EU connects us. Our economies are extremely intertwined,” she noted.
Greek PM Mitsotakis to Visit Ankara for High-Level Cooperation Council
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis will pay an official visit to Ankara on February 11 to attend the sixth meeting of the Turkey–Greece High-Level Cooperation Council, which he will co-chair with Turkish President Erdogan. Relevant ministers from both countries are expected to join the talks.
Burhanettin Duran, the Presidency’s Director of Communications, said on X that Mitsotakis is traveling to Turkey at Erdogan’s invitation. He noted that the two leaders are expected to exchange views on regional and global developments as well as bilateral ties.
Duran added that several agreements aimed at further strengthening relations between Turkey and Greece are due to be signed during the visit.
Turkish Intelligence Detains Two Suspects Over Alleged Mossad Spying
Turkish intelligence has detained two people on suspicion of spying for Israel’s Mossad and providing information that allegedly helped the agency target its enemies.
Security sources said Mehmet Budak Derya, a mining engineer, and Veysel Kerimoglu, a Turkish citizen of Palestinian origin, were taken into custody in Istanbul. The sources said Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization (MIT) had monitored both men for an extended period.
Authorities allege that Derya expanded his activities in the Middle East through Kerimoglu by building social and commercial ties with Palestinians who oppose Israel’s policies, and then shared information about those individuals with Mossad.
Black Box Audio Points to Generator Failures in Ankara Crash
Voice recordings recovered from the black box of an aircraft that crashed in Ankara, killing Libya’s armed forces chief Lt. Gen. Mohammed al-Haddad and seven others, indicate that multiple onboard generators failed shortly after takeoff.
Transport and Infrastructure Minister Abdulkadir Uraloglu said the cockpit voice recorder (CVR) was analyzed in the United Kingdom and showed the pilots repeatedly reporting electrical failures while remaining in continuous contact with air traffic control.
Uraloglu said the crew first issued a “PAN-PAN” call, the second-highest emergency signal, and requested to return to Esenboga Airport. As the situation deteriorated and systems failed, the pilots upgraded the alert to “MAYDAY,” but the aircraft crashed before it could reach the airport.
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