Report: "Turkey's Vision for a New Syria" by Mustafa Enes Esen, Hasim Tekines, Mehmet Demirbas and Servet Akman, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
The question of who governs Syria — and how the country is governed — has been one of the most critical foreign policy issues for Turkey, with direct implications for its domestic politics. From Ankara’s perspective, prolonged instability in Syria could weaken the new authorities and complicate efforts to stabilize the country. This approach has shaped Turkey’s posture since the collapse of the Assad system. Ankara moved quickly to recognize the new authorities and positioned itself as one of their key external partners.
There is a strong belief in Ankara that a political opening in a fragmented society could trigger renewed violence and weaken Sharaa’s authority. In this vein, Turkish policymakers have shown little interest in pushing for political liberalization in Syria. Its immediate focus has been on supporting institutions capable of controlling territory and maintaining internal order.
Eastern Syria remains the most sensitive issue for Turkey. The Syrian Democratic Forces lost much of their territorial and economic leverage after the fighting in early 2026. Still, the legacy of autonomous political and security structures continues to complicate reintegration under Damascus.
Economic recovery will be critical for the survival of the new political order. Syria’s infrastructure remains heavily damaged. Energy supply is inconsistent. Poverty remains widespread. Without visible improvements in daily life, the new authorities could face growing pressure from within. If reconstruction progresses, Syria’s recovery will likely become more closely linked to Turkish trade and energy networks.
Syria’s trajectory is unfolding within a broader regional and international landscape shaped by several major external actors. Turkey has become one of the most influential actors on the ground, but developments are also shaped by the policies of the United States, Israel and other Gulf countries.
Turkey can influence Syria’s direction but cannot determine it. The durability of Turkey’s position will ultimately depend on whether the new Syrian leadership can gradually rebuild state authority, restore economic functionality, and re-establish Syria as a functioning sovereign state.
"Who Will Succeed Erdogan? Son’s Rising Profile Fuels Talk" by Selcan Hacaoglu and Firat Kozok, Bloomberg
Who will eventually take over from Turkey’s longest-serving leader has been a persistent question for foreign investors and ordinary Turks for years. But within Erdogan’s political movement, the 71-year-old remains a cult figure and any talk about his health or what comes next are shut down.
Bilal, who has a master’s degree in public policy from Harvard University, is receiving informal political leadership training and is building a network of loyalists, the people with knowledge of the situation said. He is closely involved in selecting senior officials for both the AKP and the government, they said.
If Erdogan can win the election, he could gradually clear the way for his son to replace him as chairman of the AKP through a vote, party insiders predicted. They added that Erdogan could possibly appoint Bilal as deputy president later, which is allowed by the constitution.
"Jordan’s growing role in Turkish foreign policy" by Dr. Sinem Cengiz, Arab News
Jordan has long pursued a status quo-oriented foreign policy, prioritizing stability along its borders. Turkiye’s support for a centralized and territorially unified Syria closely aligns with Jordanian interests in this regard. Both countries view fragmentation and instability in Syria as a direct threat to their security, making their policy convergence not only strategic but also necessary.
As a NATO partner, Turkiye views the alliance’s cooperation with Amman as increasingly significant, as its presence in the country will help strengthen the regional security architecture. Amman not only occupies a key position in terms of security cooperation, but also in economic coordination. Jordan and Turkiye, along with Syria, are working on a joint initiative to restore the historic Hejaz railway, focusing on the segment linking the three countries as part of efforts to rebuild regional transport and trade networks disrupted by years of conflict and border closures.
Former AKP Minister Warns of Moral Decline and Waning Religiosity in Turkey
Bulent Arinc, a founder of President Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) and a former speaker of the Turkish parliament, said a political movement that came to power promising “virtue” has failed to provide moral leadership. Without naming the ruling party directly, he argued that people in Turkey are abandoning Islam and moving away from religious practices such as daily prayers and the headscarf.
Arinc made the comments on February 14 at a conference in Ankara focused on democracy, law and politics. He said religiosity has increasingly become something people avoid. He attributed this shift to public religious discourse that he believes has lost credibility.
Arinc added that Turkiye should not expect progress without rebuilding ethical standards, framing the problem as both a political failure and a broader social decline.
DEM Party Discusses Peace Efforts with Erdogan; Links Process to Ocalan’s Status
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) lawmaker Pervin Buldan and former lawmaker Mithat Sancar on February 11. The DEM Party delegation said the talks focused on regional developments and their potential impact on the government’s “Terrorism‑free Turkey” initiative.
According to the delegation, both sides reaffirmed a shared intention to keep a renewed peace initiative on track. They also called on parliament, ministries and public institutions to accelerate “concrete” steps tied to the process.
On February 13, DEM Party Co‑chair Tuncer Bakirhan told BBC Turkish that peace efforts cannot be separated from the situation of imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan. He argued that the idea of “Let there be peace and let Ocalan remain the same” is incompatible with the logic of a genuine peace initiative and would not be accepted by much of society.
Bakirhan added that any resolution would require legal steps, including a “right to hope” framework that would permit the release of prisoners serving life sentences, including Ocalan.
He also denied claims that the DEM Party would support a new constitution or early elections in exchange for concessions from Ankara. Bakirhan said constitutional changes were not on the agenda and insisted the party would not act as a “sidekick” to Erdogan or his political allies.
Erdogan Appoints Akin Gurlek as New Justice Minister
President Erdogan has appointed Istanbul chief public prosecutor Akin Gurlek as Turkey's new justice minister, according to a decree published in the Official Gazette on February 11.
Gurlek replaces the incumbent justice minister, Yilmaz Tunc. Erdogan also reassigned the interior ministry: Ali Yerlikaya stepped down, and Mustafa Ciftci, the governor of the eastern province of Erzurum, took over the post.
Authorities did not immediately disclose the reason for the reshuffle. The Official Gazette said both ministers requested to be excused from their duties.
Gurlek, 44, is widely known for overseeing investigations targeting opposition politicians, particularly figures from the main opposition Republican Peoples Party (CHP), and for filing cases against them over their criticism of his actions.
Turkey’s Current Account Deficit Hits $25.2 Billion in 2025
In December alone, the current account posted a deficit of $7.253 billion. Excluding gold and energy, the monthly deficit narrowed to $691 million.
On an annualized basis, the current account deficit stood at roughly $25.2 billion as of December. Over the same period, the balance of payments-defined foreign trade balance, recorded a deficit of $69.7 billion.
Turkey's Central Bank Raises 2025 Inflation Forecast to 15-21%
Turkey's central bank expects annual inflation to slow to between 15% and 21% by the end of the year, slightly higher than its previous forecast of 13% to 19%, Governor Fatih Karahan announced on 12 February at a quarterly presentation in Istanbul. The bank left its inflation targets for 2026 and 2027 unchanged at 16% and 9%, respectively.
Governor Karahan attributed the upward revision to adjustments in the inflation calculation framework, rising food prices and increases in certain commodity prices.
The central bank signaled that future interest rate cuts remain possible, though officials suggested a more cautious approach. Karahan said the "threshold" for accelerating the pace of cuts is high, while Deputy Governor Cevdet Akcay noted that the size of rate reductions "has to decrease."
TPAO Signs Global Oil and Gas Cooperation Deal with BP
Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar announced that Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO) would sign a cooperation agreement with British energy company BP, following a similar deal with US-based Chevron. The agreements will cover joint oil and gas exploration and production activities worldwide, Bayraktar told Bloomberg in an interview on February 11.
Bayraktar also cited Syria, Libya, Iraq, Kazakhstan and Venezuela as potential locations for the first joint projects to be launched under the Chevron deal.
The TPAO–BP agreement referenced by Bayraktar was signed on 12 February. According to a statement from the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, the agreement was concluded in Istanbul by TPAO General Manager Cem Erdem and BP Head of International Oil and Gas Business Development Andrew McAuslan, in the presence of Minister Alparslan Bayraktar.
In his assessment of the partnership, Bayraktar said that TPAO aims to become a company producing around 500,000 barrels of oil and natural gas per day by 2028, and intends to raise this output to 1 million barrels per day through such international agreements.
Bayraktar also noted that TPAO secured the right to obtain licenses in two blocks — one offshore and one onshore — in a tender held in Libya on 11 February. He added that another agreement is expected next week, stating: “The other is a different agreement, more concrete and clearer. We will form a partnership with a specific location and country. We plan to sign that next week as well.”
Uber to Acquire Getir’s Turkey Delivery Operations From Mubadala
Uber Technologies has agreed to acquire the delivery business of Turkey-based Getir from its Emirati controlling shareholder Mubadala. In a statement on February 9, Uber said the deal covers Getir’s delivery operations in Turkey, including food, grocery, retail and water delivery services.
In a separate filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, Uber disclosed that it would pay $335 million in cash, on a cash- and debt-free basis, to acquire Getir’s food delivery business.
The transaction will place Getir and Trendyol Go — in which Uber acquired a $700 million stake last year — under the same corporate umbrella.
WE Soda Says Arrest Warrant for Turkish Businessman Turgay Ciner Lifted
UK-based holding company WE Soda Ltd announced that Turkish businessman Turgay Ciner, who ultimately controls the company, is no longer subject to an arrest warrant in Turkiye.
Turkish prosecutors had issued a warrant for Ciner, and a court placed his group’s Park Holding and its subsidiaries under the control of the Savings Deposit Insurance Fund (TMSF) in late September 2025 as part of a money-laundering investigation.
In a statement released on February 9 to inform stakeholders, WE Soda said the warrant for Ciner has been rescinded. The company also confirmed that the court-appointed trusteeship over Park Holding, one of the core firms in the Ciner Group, has been lifted and replaced with a temporary supervisory regime overseen by TMSF.
Turkey Ranks Among Top Global Decliners in 2025 Corruption Index
Transparency International released its 2025 Corruption Perception Index report on February 10, delivering a sobering assessment of global integrity standards. The annual study, widely regarded as a benchmark for measuring public sector corruption, reveals that Turkey continues its decade-long downward trend.
Turkey lost 3 points over the past year, finishing 2025 with a score of 31. This decline places the nation 124th out of 182 countries evaluated. Data also showed that Turkey has faced a consistent drop in its score since 2013.
The report also highlighted the countries with the most significant long-term regressions. Eswatini, located in Southern Africa, leads this list with a 20-point loss since 2014. Turkey follows closely in second place, having shed 19 points since 2013.
EP Condemns Turkey’s Expulsion of Journalists and Christians
The European Parliament adopted a resolution on February 12 addressing the human rights situation in Turkey. The motion passed with overwhelming support, receiving 502 votes in favour, 2 against, and 59 abstentions.
Parliament strongly condemned the targeted expulsion of foreign journalists and Christians from Turkey, actions it stated were carried out under unsubstantiated national security pretexts and without due process.
Citing a lack of access to evidence and meaningful judicial review, the resolution called on Turkish authorities to immediately end all forms of judicial and administrative harassment against foreign journalists. It further urged Ankara to cease using administrative measures that bar individuals from entering or re-entering the country.
Turkish Authorities Intensify Crackdown on Alleged Gulen Movement Links
Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya announced on February 9 that Turkish police have detained 63 people and formally arrested 41 of them over the past two weeks for alleged links to the Gulen movement.
Yerlikaya said in a post on X that security forces carried out operations in 29 provinces, including Ankara, Antalya, Istanbul and Izmir.
Separately, Turkish police detained 93 current and former tax inspectors in raids across 11 provinces on February 13 as part of an Istanbul-based investigation into alleged Gulen movement ties.
The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office said it issued arrest warrants for 94 tax inspectors who are currently employed by, or previously worked at, the Ministry of Treasury and Finance. The group includes individuals dismissed in the sweeping crackdown that followed the failed coup attempt in 2016.
Talent Manager Sentenced to 12 Years Over Gezi Park Protests
An Istanbul court sentenced celebrity talent manager Ayse Barim to 12-and-a-half years in prison on February 11 for aiding an alleged attempt to overthrow the Turkish government during the 2013 Gezi Park protests.
Barim had previously been released from prison due to poor health. Following the verdict, the court did not order her immediate arrest, citing her ongoing medical treatment. However, it maintained an existing travel ban against her.
The Istanbul 26th High Criminal Court initially imposed an aggravated life sentence for attempting to overthrow the government. The court reportedly reduced the term to 15 years because Barim’s role was classified as "aiding," and applied a further reduction to 12 years and six months.
Erdogan Postpones UAE Trip, Uncertainty Over Ethiopia Visit
President Erdogan has postponed a planned visit to the United Arab Emirates, after previously announcing travel to the UAE on February 16 and to Ethiopia on February 17, according to statements from Turkey’s Directorate of Communications.
Earlier, Burhanettin Duran, head of the Communications Directorate, said Erdogan was set to meet with the UAE President, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, on February 16. Duran said the talks would focus on steps to deepen cooperation between Turkey and the UAE, as well as regional and global developments. He also said Erdogan would travel to Addis Ababa on February 17 at the invitation of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali for official engagements, and that the visits were expected to include the signing of several agreements and documents already finalized in negotiations.
On February 15, however, Duran said Erdogan informed Al Nahyan by phone that he would delay the UAE visit and reschedule it for a mutually convenient date. The statement did not provide a reason for the postponement, and it remained unclear whether the Ethiopia trip would also be affected.
Erdogan Says Aegean, Mediterranean Disputes with Greece Are “Not Insurmountable”
Turkish President Erdogan said on 11 February that Turkey and Greece can resolve their disputes in the Aegean and the Mediterranean seas, as Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis urged Ankara to lift a long-standing threat of war.
The two leaders spoke in Ankara after talks aimed at sustaining dialogue between the longtime rivals amid renewed tensions.
“In our meeting, we once again openly and sincerely addressed our positions regarding the Aegean and eastern Mediterranean,” Erdogan said. “While the current issues are complex, they are not insurmountable under international law. All that is needed is good faith, constructive dialogue and a will to find a solution.”
Mitsotakis said the recent positive momentum in Greek-Turkish relations makes it timely to remove what he described as threats that continue to weigh on bilateral ties.
He led a delegation of senior ministers for the High-Level Cooperation Council meeting, where Greek and Turkish officials held separate bilateral discussions. Erdogan and Mitsotakis later oversaw the signing of a series of agreements covering investment, maritime trade, economic cooperation, disaster response, culture, and science and technology.
Turkish Demand for Greece’s Golden Visa Surges in 2025
Investors from Turkey, Israel, China, Iran and the United States dominated approvals under Greece’s Golden Visa residency-by-investment program in 2025, as demand rose sharply amid economic strain, conflict and security concerns abroad, the Greek outlet Kathimerini reported.
Greek authorities approved a total of 8,879 new residence permits last year, a 95% jump from the 4,535 permits issued in 2024. Permits granted to Turkish investors increased by 160% in 2025, reaching 3,291 and accounting for 15.9% of all approvals, making them the program’s second-largest investor group after investors from China.
The report noted that higher-income Turkish citizens increasingly sought options abroad to protect their wealth against currency depreciation and economic instability. Political considerations and the opportunity for visa-free travel within the Schengen area also contributed to the surge in applications, the outlet said.
Fidan Says Turkey May Join Regional Nuclear Arms Race if Iran Goes Nuclear
Turkey would consider entering a regional nuclear arms race if Iran pursued nuclear weapons, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said late on 9 February.
Speaking to CNN Turk, Fidan said Ankara does not want to upset the fragile balance of power in the Middle East, warning that such a move could trigger broader nuclear competition. However, in response to a question on whether Turkey would view Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons as a threat, he added: “We may inevitably have to join the same race.”
In a separate interview published on 12 February, Fidan told the Financial Times that the United States and Iran appeared ready to compromise in order to secure a nuclear deal. He cautioned, however, that expanding the talks to include Tehran’s ballistic missile programme would risk “nothing but another war”.
Fidan said Washington had signalled a willingness to show flexibility on its long-standing demand that Iran halt all uranium enrichment. “It is positive that the Americans appear willing to tolerate Iranian enrichment within clearly set boundaries,” he said. The minister added that he believes Tehran “genuinely wants to reach a real agreement” and would accept limits on enrichment levels alongside a stringent inspections regime.
Suspected Russian Drone Washes Ashore on Turkey’s Black Sea Coast
A drone washed ashore on February 10 in the Unye district of Ordu province. The Ministry of National Defense said at its weekly briefing that officials assessed the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) to be of Russian origin. The ministry stated that it dispatched a team from the Underwater Defense Group Command to the area and confirmed that the UAV contained no explosives. Authorities then handed the drone over to Unye police for further examination.
160 Turkish Nationals Among ISIL-Linked Detainees Transferred from Syria to Iraq
Thousands of detainees suspected of links to the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and transferred in recent weeks from northeastern Syria to Iraq under a US-led operation include 160 Turkish nationals, according to Iraqi security officials.
The detainees come from more than 27 countries, including France, Germany, Turkey, China and Russia. The largest group consists of 3,245 Syrians, while Iraqis make up the second-largest contingent with 271 individuals. Other foreign nationals include 208 men from Tunisia, 160 from Turkey, 142 from Morocco and 100 from Egypt. Officials said that once the final group arrives, the total number of detainees relocated from Syria to Iraq is expected to approach 7,000.
Separately, DW Turkish reported that Turkey is preparing to take back Turkish citizens who are ISIL members and were transferred from Syria to Iraq. Diplomatic sources told DW that authorities have not yet confirmed the exact number of Turkish nationals involved and that identification efforts remain ongoing. The sources said returned Turkish nationals will face trial in Turkey.
Turkey Sends Drillship to Somalia for First Offshore Mission Abroad
Turkey dispatched its deep-sea drilling vessel Cagri Bey to Somalia on February 15 for what Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar described as Ankara’s first offshore exploration mission outside its own maritime jurisdiction. Bayraktar said Cagri Bey, which recently joined Turkey’s drilling fleet, is expected to reach Somalia in about 45 days and will travel under the escort of three Turkish naval warships. Calling the deployment a “historic moment” for Turkey’s oil and gas exploration drive, Bayraktar said the vessel is set to begin drilling in April at the Curad-1 well off Somalia.
Turkey Delivers Patton Tanks to Somalia
Turkey has delivered M48 and M60 Patton main battle tanks to Somalia, according to footage showing the armored vehicles moving in convoy through Mogadishu after being offloaded from a Turkish naval vessel.
Based on the available video and defense sources, the tanks arrived aboard the Turkish Navy landing ship TCG Sancaktar and were unloaded at the port of Mogadishu. Footage circulating online shows the vehicles leaving the port area under escort before continuing through the capital in an organised convoy.
.svg.avif){kind=small}
