ANALYSIS ***
"Why Caution Is Warranted in Turkey’s PKK Deal" by Mustafa Enes Esen, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
The government has designed a process it can control, insulated it from parliamentary and public scrutiny, written advance protection for the officials who run it, and confined its substance largely to disarmament, return, and amnesty, while leaving the political core of the Kurdish question untouched. The regional dimension, embodied in the PJAK, adds a variable that Ankara does not fully command.
None of this makes failure inevitable, and an end to the armed conflict would remain a significant gain for Turkey and the region. A settlement engineered for reversibility and shielded from accountability is nonetheless a fragile one. The accumulation of warning signs, in the text of the law and in the manner of its passage, is reason enough to temper the current optimism, and to watch closely how its next stages unfold.
"Our Experts Assess the Turkey-Saudi Arabia-Pakistan Defense Pact", The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
On August 7, 2026, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan signed a trilateral defense pact in Mecca, stipulating that "any armed attack against any one of the three States shall be regarded as an attack against them all." Signed amid the Iran-US war and renewed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, the agreement binds the three to a collective defense commitment. Our experts weigh in.
Servet Akman: It enables the three countries to strengthen their deterrence against the threats they face while providing a framework for deeper defense-industrial cooperation built on mutual trust. For Turkey, it opens a major market for its military equipment and a potential source of financing for the projects needed to develop that equipment.
The agreement also brings a Saudi Arabia widely expected to join the Abraham Accords further into Turkey's orbit. At the same time, it helps undermine Israel's recent efforts to portray Turkey and Qatar as patrons of Muslim Brotherhood "radicalism."
Mustafa Enes Esen: For Turkey, this agreement is largely symbolic. The most plausible interpretation is that Turkey signed the agreement to signal to Iran that it does not wish to see the war in the region escalate through attacks on the Gulf states, and to secure substantial funding from Saudi Arabia by demonstrating its good faith. If the situation escalates into open conflict, however, Ankara will most probably not be a direct party to it. Should these countries develop joint defense mechanisms, joint command centers, and coordinated troop movements, we will have to reassess our position, but as it stands the agreement remains largely symbolic.
Omer Guler: It is obvious that this agreement was signed at Saudi Arabia's initiative and primarily for its benefit. So perhaps the more pertinent question is whether fighting alongside Saudi Arabia, for example against the Houthis in Yemen or against Iran, would be vital to Turkey's national interests. Turkey wants stability in the region, but that is very different from fighting other countries' wars.
Considering all of this, this agreement is unlikely to deter other countries or produce tangible results. Even the security guarantees of the United States have failed to deter Iran from attacking Gulf states, so this agreement is unlikely to fare any better.
"The Beylikova dilemma: Turkey weighs economic boom against toxic risks in rare earth push" by Diego Cupolo, Turkey Recap
Environmentalists have expressed concerns that rising REE demand will inevitably increase their market value, rendering even low-yield mining projects economically viable in the near future—and opening more sites in Turkey and beyond to potential contamination.
Yet without international certification, Beylikova’s future remains hard to predict, said Imdat Öner, a former Turkish diplomat and current senior fellow at the Jack D. Gordon Public Policy Institute of Florida International University, who recently co-authored a comprehensive assessment of Turkey’s REEs prospects.
“Turkey is highly interested in making deals with the US on rare earth elements, but it would depend on Turkey meeting strict US supply‑chain transparency and security requirements,” Öner told Turkey recap.
POLITICS
Bahceli Calls for Release of Kurdish Leaders Ahead of Peace Process Bill
Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahceli called for the release of Abdullah Ocalan, the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), and Selahattin Demirtas, a Kurdish political leader who has spent 10 years in prison.
“Selahattin Demirtas should return home, the two Ahmets should return to office, and Ocalan should be granted the right to hope,” Bahceli told reporters in Ankara, referring to removed Mardin Metropolitan Mayor Ahmet Turk and removed Esenyurt district Mayor Ahmet Ozer.
“I regularly speak with Selahattin Demirtas through his lawyers and ask how he is doing,” he added.
Turkish Parliament to Debate Peace Bill as PKK Criticizes Draft
A Turkish parliamentary committee on August 7 approved a 12-article bill that would suspend certain criminal investigations and court proceedings for five to 10 years and establish oversight bodies for the government’s efforts to end its conflict with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).
The bill bears the signatures of 367 lawmakers from the ruling alliance and several opposition parties, including the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party), the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the New Path parliamentary group.
Lawmakers from the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) described the bill as the result of political consensus and rejected claims that it amounted to an amnesty.
The New Path parliamentary group, however, called the proposal a conditional general amnesty. The opposition Good Party, which opposes the peace initiative, said the bill violated the Constitution and urged parliament to refer it to the Constitutional Committee first.
The legislation, formally titled the “Bill on Strengthening National Solidarity and Social Integration,” would postpone investigations and prosecutions for certain offenses. It would also create a parliamentary monitoring commission and a separate board chaired by Turkey’s vice president.
Parliament’s General Assembly will begin debating the bill on August 10.
The PKK criticized the draft, saying it contained serious shortcomings and failed to reflect democratization proposals outlined in an earlier commission report. It also objected to the bill’s failure to mention Kurds, saying its focus on disarmament alone showed that lawmakers had not addressed the issue comprehensively.
The PKK said the bill also failed to define a coordinator role that MHP leader Devlet Bahceli had proposed and relied on vague language. “It is impossible for a process that is not directly managed and directed by Ocalan to succeed”, the PKK said.
Turkish Prosecutors Seek Removal of Immunity for Opposition Leader
Turkish prosecutors have asked parliament to lift the immunity of New Party leader Ozgur Ozel and lawmaker Veli Agbaba over allegations that they accepted bribes on several occasions while serving as senior members of the main opposition CHP.
The Ankara Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office said it sent two case summaries to the Justice Ministry and requested authorization to prosecute Ozel and Agbaba.
Prosecutors allege that Ozel used his influence as CHP chairman to secure the renomination of Antalya Mayor Muhittin Bocek in the March 2024 local elections in exchange for benefits from Bocek and his son, Mustafa Gokhan Bocek. The prosecutor’s office said Ozel received the alleged benefits directly or through Agbaba on several occasions.
Prosecutors also accuse Ozel of receiving financial benefits from Usak Mayor Ozkan Yalim in connection with the CHP congress held on Nov. 4 and 5, 2023. Ozel defeated longtime party leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu at the congress to become CHP chairman.
Turkish Court Jails Ankara District Mayor in Corruption Case
On August 3, a Turkish court ordered the pretrial detention of Erdal Besikcioglu, an actor and mayor of Ankara’s Etimesgut district, along with 39 others in a corruption investigation.
Authorities detained Besikcioglu, a member of the main opposition CHP, and 54 others during raids across nine provinces on July 30.
Besikcioglu denied wrongdoing. He said municipal tenders fell outside his direct authority and denied personal or commercial ties to the companies under investigation. Besikcioglu further denied issuing unlawful instructions or personally benefiting from any municipal transaction.
ECONOMY
Turkey’s Annual Inflation Eases to 31.75% in July
Turkey’s annual inflation rate eased to 31.75% in July from 32.11% in June, although an independent research group estimated the rate at 50.49%.
The Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) reported a 1.78% monthly increase in consumer prices on August 3. Transportation costs climbed 2.59% from June, while housing costs rose 2.25% and food and non-alcoholic beverages prices increased 1.61%.
The independent Inflation Research Group (ENAG) recorded a 3.07% monthly increase in its inflation index. It put annual inflation at 50.49%, down from 51.49% in June.
Turkey-Iran Gas Import Deal Expires as Supplies Continue
Turkey’s agreement to import 9 billion to 10 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually from Iran expired on July 29, with no official statement yet on whether the two countries will renew it.
The agreement entered into force in 2001. Gas deliveries have continued despite the contract’s expiry, industry sources said.
The sources said the U.S.-Iran war had prevented Turkey and Iran from renegotiating the import agreement. They added that supplies could continue for some time under the contract’s force majeure clause.
Turkey's Gulf Exports Fall as Iran Trade Rises During Conflict
Turkey's exports to Gulf countries fell sharply as the U.S.-Israel war with Iran disrupted regional trade and threatened logistics routes, according to data compiled by the Turkish Exporters' Assembly.
Exports to Gulf markets fell 21% in the first seven months of the year to $11.05 billion from $13.9 billion a year earlier.
From March through July, as the conflict intensified, Turkey's exports to the Gulf dropped 17% to $7.908 billion from $9.574 billion in the same period last year. The decline amounted to a net export loss of $1.666 billion over the five months.
The United Arab Emirates recorded the biggest fall among Gulf markets. Turkey's exports to the UAE dropped 48.1% in the first seven months, falling to $2.363 billion from $4.556 billion a year earlier.
Trade with Iran moved in the opposite direction. Turkish exports to Iran rose 17% between March and July to $993.2 million, compared with $851.2 million a year earlier, as demand shifted toward a wartime economy.
STM Launches Final Corvette for Malaysian Navy in Istanbul
Turkish defense firm STM launched the third and final corvette for the Royal Malaysian Navy at Istanbul Shipyard on August 9, completing the launch of all three vessels within four months. Senior Turkish and Malaysian officials and industry representatives attended the ceremony.
The ships form Turkey’s first corvette export program to the Asia-Pacific region. They will now undergo outfitting and sea trials, with delivery scheduled by the end of 2027.
Each vessel displaces about 2,500 tons and carries Turkish-made weapons and sensors from around 50 domestic companies, including Aselsan radar systems, Roketsan anti-ship missiles and Havelsan combat management systems.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Turkey Records More Than 196,000 Juvenile Crime Cases in 2025
Turkish security units recorded 196,308 incidents involving minors classified as “pushed into crime” in 2025, while 267,794 minors appeared as crime victims, according to official data released by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) on Aug. 4.
Security units handled 609,959 incidents involving juveniles during the year, a 0.4% decline from 2024. Authorities listed 92,301 minors as witnesses in the cases.
Minors classified as “pushed into crime” accounted for 32.2% of all juvenile cases, while victims made up 43.9%.
Assault ranked as the most common alleged offense among minors in the first category, accounting for 41.6% of cases. Theft followed with 14.7%, while drug-related offenses involving the use, sale or purchase of narcotics accounted for 9.7%.
Turkish Law Professors Scholars Urge Courts to Apply ECHR Rulings in Terrorism Charges
Five Turkish law professors have urged courts to fully apply European human rights rulings in cases involving people convicted over alleged links to the Gulen movement, arguing that lawful conduct and unverified digital evidence cannot alone establish membership in a terrorist organization.
Professors Adem Sozuer, Izzet Ozgenc, Faruk Turhan, Cumhur Sahin, and Tolga Sirin signed the joint legal opinion, which Ankara Bar Association lawyer Levent Maziliguney presented.
The professors said prosecutors must show that defendants knowingly and intentionally joined the movement. They also said that courts must consider the European Court of Human Rights’ (ECHR) findings in other cases involving similar circumstances.
The opinion said authorities cannot treat lawful civic activities as criminal evidence on their own.
Kurdish Asylum Seeker Jailed in Turkey After Switzerland Deportation
Turkish authorities detained Bahar Yalçınkaya after Switzerland deported her with her two children despite her lawyer’s warning that she faced a high risk of imprisonment over her pro-Kurdish political expression, the Bianet news website reported.
A court later ordered Yalçınkaya’s pretrial detention and sent her to Bakirkoy Women’s Prison in Istanbul with her 15-month-old child. Authorities held her in police custody for a day after she entered Turkey.
According to her lawyer, prosecutors are investigating allegations that Yalçınkaya disseminated propaganda linked to Turkey’s Kurdish political movement.
A resident at the return center where Yalçınkaya stayed told that police officers forcibly removed her from her room during the deportation operation. The witness said officers handcuffed her behind her back in front of her children before taking all three to a flight to Turkey.
Swiss authorities later deported Yalçınkaya from the Rückkehrzentrum Ober Halden return center in Hinteregg, in the canton of Zurich, together with her two children. Turkish authorities detained her immediately after her arrival.
FOREIGN POLICY
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan Sign Mutual Defense Pact in Mecca
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed a mutual defense agreement in Mecca on August 7 that treats an armed attack on any one of them as an attack on all three, deepening security ties amid the U.S.-Iran war and renewed Houthi attacks.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif signed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement during a meeting in the Muslim holy city. Erdogan arrived in Jeddah before traveling to Mecca for the ceremony.
The agreement aims to strengthen collective deterrence against aggression. Under the pact, the three countries would treat an armed attack against any one of them as an attack against all, the leaders said in a joint statement.
Turkish Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz said the agreement did not target any specific country. A Turkish official described it as purely defensive and said it would not affect existing agreements between the three countries and other states.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on August 8 that the pact mirrored NATO’s Article 5 mutual-defense principle but did not target Iran. The three countries would consult on the degree, form and format of support they would request if one of them came under attack, he said.
Fidan added that Erdogan wanted to expand the alliance and identified Egypt as one potential future member.
Erdogan Expresses Solidarity with Saudi Arabia in Call with Crown Prince
President Erdogan spoke by phone with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on August 3 and expressed sadness over recent attacks against Saudi Arabia. Erdogan said Turkey was working to help establish lasting peace and promote peace and stability across the region.
He also stressed that Israel must strictly follow the roadmap for the second phase of the Gaza Peace Plan to ensure its success.
Intelligence Chief Meets Hamas Official in Istanbul to Discuss Gaza Peace Plan
Turkish National Intelligence Agency (MIT) Director Ibrahim Kalin met Hamas Political Bureau Chief Khalil al-Hayya in Istanbul on August 4, Anadolu Agency reported.
The talks focused on a roadmap for the transition to the second phase of the Gaza Peace Plan, the agency said.
The officials expressed concern that Israel had increased its attacks on Gaza instead of responding to the roadmap. They urged the international community to act immediately to halt what they described as Israeli aggression.
Turkey, Syria Agree to Form High-Level Strategic Council
Turkey and Syria agreed to establish a High-Level Strategic Council during talks on August 6 between Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and his Syrian counterpart, Asaad al-Shibani.
Speaking at a news conference after the meeting, Fidan said Israel’s attacks on Syria posed one of the greatest threats to stability in Turkey’s southern neighbor. He accused the Israeli government of escalating violence across the region.
Shibani also criticized Israel, saying its continued attacks on southern Syria threatened regional stability. He, however, said deconfliction talks mediated by the United States were ongoing between Syria and Israel.
The ministers also discussed plans to revive the Four Seas Initiative, which seeks to place Turkey and Syria at the center of an energy and transportation network linking the Gulf, the Mediterranean and the Black Sea.
Shibani separately met Turkey’s intelligence chief, Ibrahim Kalin, to discuss efforts to integrate the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces and its civilian administration into Syria’s central government in Damascus.
Turkish, Libyan Officials Discuss Unity and Regional Stability in Ankara
Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin met senior Libyan officials on August 4 in Ankara as part of a high-level Libyan delegation’s visit. The delegation included Government of National Unity Deputy Defense Minister Abdulsalam al-Zoubi, National Security Adviser Ibrahim Dbeibeh and Interior Minister Emad Trabelsi.
The Libyan officials held separate meetings with Kalin, Interior Minister Mustafa Ciftci and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. They discussed developments in Libya and the wider region, ways to expand cooperation between Ankara and Tripoli, and efforts to maintain stability in Libya.
Kalin said Turkey would continue to support Libya’s territorial and political unity. He also reaffirmed Ankara’s backing for efforts to bring Libya’s eastern and western administrations together under a single national framework.
Turkey’s growing engagement with Benghazi partly seeks to persuade Libya’s eastern-based parliament to ratify the maritime agreement that Ankara signed with the Tripoli government in 2019. A wider political unification process could also strengthen the agreement’s legitimacy across Libya.
Turkey Urges Russia, Ukraine to Protect Shipping After Black Sea Drone Strike
Turkey on August 4 called on Russia and Ukraine to take steps to ensure navigational safety in the Black Sea after a drone attack struck a Turkish-owned vessel near Russia’s Novorossiysk port and seriously injured three crew members.
The Turkish Foreign Ministry said Ankara remained deeply concerned about attacks on civilian vessels in the Black Sea despite repeated warnings.
Turkey has also restricted commercial ship traffic into the Black Sea, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg.
The Directorate General of Coastal Safety told several ships bound for Novorossiysk, a major oil and grain export hub, that it had stopped issuing transit permits for such voyages or needed more time to review applications for passage through the Dardanelles Strait, the people said.
Ukraine Purchases ATACMS Missiles and MLRS Launchers From Turkey
Ukraine has purchased 70 M39 ATACMS ballistic missiles, 12 M270 multiple launch rocket system launchers and tens of thousands of cluster munitions from Turkey.
The U.S. Congress published notifications on Aug. 6 in the Congressional Record as part of the required review process for reexporting American-made defense equipment. The records state that Turkey plans to reduce its stocks of older weapons to free up funds for modernizing and maintaining systems currently in service.
The transfer is expected to begin immediately after the congressional review period ends. Turkish, Bulgarian, and U.S. defense and logistics companies specializing in military exports will handle the delivery.
Drone Explodes Near Bulgaria-Romania Border Close to Gas Pipeline
A drone that entered Bulgaria exploded on August 8 near the Romanian border, about 1 kilometer from the Trans-Balkan gas pipeline linking Turkey and Ukraine, Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev said.
Radev did not identify the drone’s origin or type. Authorities reported no casualties.
The drone exploded near the Kardam border crossing with Romania in northeastern Bulgaria, close to the Black Sea and about 1,000 meters from the compressor station serving the Trans-Balkan pipeline, Radev said.
He added that the drone carried a large quantity of explosives, citing the sound of the blast, which people heard from a distance, and the heavy black smoke it produced.
*** The next newsletter will be published on 31 August 2026 due to summer period. Thanks for your understanding.
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