Evolution of Erdoğan's Victory Speeches From 2002 To 2023

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s arrival at Baku airport marked a new low in recent Turkish-Azerbaijani relations. Fidan had travelled to attend the summit of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA), which brings together heads of state. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan did not attend, possibly in protest against harsh remarks from Baku.

By activating the collective defense mechanism, the Turkish government is not only joining a war in Yemen but also becoming part of a regional conflict that could have much larger consequences than Ankara anticipates. As this regional war drags on, the stakes will rise for all parties, pushing them to take greater risks. Ankara may therefore find that what begins as a limited military deployment in Saudi Arabia ultimately ends centuries of relative peace between Turkey and Iran.

On October 5, 2026, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan agreed in Riyadh "to move immediately to the practical implementation of the collective defense commitments" under the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement. The decision puts the pact to its first real test and raises the question of how far Turkey is prepared to go in Saudi Arabia's defense. Our experts weigh in.