As Poland Heads to Runoff, Far-Right Gains Shape the Debate

On May 18, Polish citizens participated in the first round of voting to elect the next President of the Republic of Poland. The election set a record for the number of candidates, with thirteen officially registered. As anticipated by numerous previously shared polls, Rafał Trzaskowski, a long-time member of the PO (Citizen Platform) party and Mayor of Warsaw, secured the highest share of the vote, with 31.36%. He was closely followed by the right-wing candidate Karol Nawrocki, who received 29.54% of the vote. While the final result is not surprising and reflects what has been predicted by political analysts and various polls, the narrow margin between the leading candidates was surprising. The most recent polls released three days before the first round of elections predicted a 4.9% lead for Rafał Trzaskowski.

An even greater surprise came from the extreme far-right candidates. Sławomir Mentzen, a member of the far-right Confederacy party, outperformed expectations with 14.8% of the votes, above the projected 12%, putting him in third spot. Another surprise came from Grzegorz Braun, a controversial figure and a current member of the European Parliament, who received 6.3% of the vote. Taken together, while the main two contenders predictably finished first and second, the better-than-expected results for the right and far-right candidates have raised concerns.

Second Round Campaigns Underway

With no candidate receiving a majority of the votes, a second-round vote will take place on June 1. The campaigns are already underway. Rafał Trzaskowski has secured endorsements from left-wing candidates from the coalition government, Magdalena Biejat and Szymon Hołownia. 

Both candidates are now courting far-right voters. So far, neither Mentzen nor Braun has endorsed a candidate, keeping the far-right vote in play. They are known for their nationalist rhetoric and controversial positions, including calls for closer ties with the Russian Federation and openly critical statements regarding Ukraine and Ukrainian refugees. 

Mentzen has invited both candidates to join him for a meeting that would be streamed on his YouTube channel. He requested them to agree to a number of demands, such as promising not to raise taxes as president, not to send the Polish army to Ukraine in any capacity, and to oppose any future steps that would allow Ukraine to join the EU or NATO.

Karol Nawrocki has signed the document to this end. However, it is not yet known whether the PO candidate, Trzaskowski, will do the same. Regardless, it is evident that both candidates are already appealing to right-wing voters, a tendency also adopted by the current government. One of the most contentious topics of this election has been migration and refugees.

Changes in the migration policy

On March 27, the Polish government passed a law imposing a temporary limit on the ability to apply for international protection in designated areas along the Polish border. The restriction was initially set for 60 days but has since been extended for another 60 days. While Belarus was not explicitly mentioned in the law, it is widely understood that the measure targets areas associated with the so-called ‘instrumentalization of migrants.’ The law has sparked significant controversy, with international and non-governmental organizations publishing position papers arguing that it is incompatible with Poland’s obligations as a signatory to the 1951 Geneva Convention.

At the same time, support for Ukrainian refugees is also decreasing. Prime Minister Donald Tusk proposed legislation that would revoke Ukrainian refugees’ eligibility for benefits of 800 zł (188€) unless they are actively employed. These changes were implemented under the coalition government, whose main motivation was to move Poland away from the far-right-wing PiS government.

While the presidential race heads into its decisive phase, the broader political environment in Poland reflects a notable shift to the right. The unexpectedly strong performance of far-right candidates, combined with increasingly restrictive migration policies, signals potential long-term implications for refugee protection, civil rights, and Poland’s role in European security. The outcome of the runoff on June 1 will not only determine the next president, but also redefine the country's political direction and approach to human rights and migration for years to come.