ANALYSIS
"Warships in the Caribbean: Trump's Gamble with Venezuela" by Imdat Oner, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
If pressure intensifies and Maduro is forced from office, the question of where he might seek refuge looms large. Among the possible destinations—Cuba, Nicaragua, even Russia—Turkey features prominently.
None of this is certain, and it remains speculation. But the mere fact that Turkey is seen as a credible option reflects how deeply embedded the relationship has become. This is not a coincidence. Over the past eight to nine years, Maduro and his circle have cultivated unusually close ties with Ankara. High-level visits have been frequent, and economic interactions have gone beyond normal diplomacy. Gold trade between the two countries became a critical lifeline for Caracas at a time of sanctions. Reports suggest members of Maduro's entourage have opened accounts in Turkish banks, invested in property, and purchased luxury homes in Istanbul.
"Russia's Imperial Black Sea Strategy" by Daniel S. Hamilton and Angela Stent, Foreign Affairs
Brussels must mobilize funding to match the ambitious rhetoric it presented in May 2025 on a so-called connectivity agenda with Black Sea states and the Caucasus, Eurasia, and the Middle East. The EU should forge West-East corridors that link the Mediterranean, Black, and Caspian Seas––circumventing Russia and including Turkey, which EU plans have thus far avoided.
Turkey will be central to any strategy to prevent Russia from controlling the Black Sea. Ankara often diverges from its NATO allies on the nature of regional challenges: it has armed Ukraine and refused to recognize Russia's annexation of Crimea, for instance, but maintains lucrative commercial ties with Moscow. European and U.S. policymakers should recognize this complexity and build on shared interests such as strengthening regional supply chains and infrastructure links as well as upholding freedom of navigation and curbing Russian expansionism in the Black Sea.
"After setbacks in Syria and Turkish gains in Libya, Russia scrambles to retain Mediterranean sway" by Anton Mardasov, Al-Monitor
Turkey's deepening engagement in eastern Libya is putting Moscow on the defensive, as Russia struggles to maintain leverage across the Mediterranean amid Turkey's rising influence and its own diminishing sway in Syria following the fall of the Assad regime.
Two Russian diplomats told Al-Monitor that Moscow sees Ankara's recent rapprochement with the Benghazi-based leadership as aimed at curbing Russian influence in territory controlled by Libyan strongman Khalifa Hifter. Both diplomats, as well as two active employees of the Russian special services, say that Turkey's deepening engagement increases Russia's dependence on Ankara, giving Turkey greater leverage across both Syria and Libya. At the same time, Moscow remains constrained by the slow and tense transfer of power within the Hifter family.
"Will PKK disarmament bring thaw between PUK and Turkey? by Mehmet Alaca, Amwaj.media
Turkey would be well advised to temper any expectation of a radical shift in PUK policy, whether towards Iran or the SDF. Ankara has no real leverage over the party besides continuing to extend flight restrictions. Given that reality, refusing to play ball on issues of mutual concern could instead have the reverse effect of pushing the PUK closer to Iran and Tehran-allied groups in Iraq.
Beyond that, cordial ties with Ankara, particularly as PKK-aligned armed groups in Turkey and Iraq aim to shift to a phase of "democratic politics and law," could help the PUK gain a foothold in fast-reshaping Kurdish politics in the region.
POLITICS
Court Ousts Istanbul CHP Leadership, Appoints Caretaker Board Led by Tekin
On September 2, a Turkish court dismissed the leadership of the Istanbul branch of the CHP and appointed a five-member caretaker board.
The 45th Civil Court of First Instance annulled the October 2023 provincial congress, which had elected the local leadership. The ruling removed provincial chairman Ozgur Celik and his executive team, suspended 196 delegates, and froze the party's ongoing internal election process in Istanbul.
Judges appointed a caretaker group headed by Gursel Tekin, a veteran party figure and former general secretary under ex-chairman Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Tekin said he learned of the appointment through media reports but pledged to "take the party to a congress in unity" and to "help free it from the corridors of courthouses."
CHP Chairman Ozgur Ozel responded by announcing Tekin's expulsion from the party. Ozel declared, "As the CHP, we will take every legal step. We will appeal to the court, but this ruling effectively suspends the election law in the country. From now on, no election conducted by the Supreme Election Council (YSK) can be considered final."
Tekin rejected the expulsion, arguing it was decided without giving him the chance to defend himself.
YSK convened on September 5 to consider the CHP's application to review the court's decision. YSK President Ahmet Yener announced that the party's objection to the court's trustee appointment had been rejected, but the suspension of district congresses had been lifted, allowing them to resume.
Ozel, following a meeting with former party chairman Kilicdaroglu, said that Kilicdaroglu did not accept the appointment request by trustee Tekin. "From now on, I do not think he accepts the trusteeship. We will all protect our party together," he added.
On September 7, Turkish police set up barricades around the CHP headquarters in Istanbul, while the party leadership urged supporters to gather at the provincial office.
CHP Seeks Extraordinary Congress to Secure Leadership Amid Court Challenge
Turkey's main opposition party, the Republican People's Party (CHP), applied on September 5 to hold an extraordinary party congress on September 21, allowing delegates to vote again for party leadership. The party submitted its request to the Cankaya District Election Board in Ankara.
The move is seen as a safeguard against a potential court ruling on September 15 in Ankara that will probably oust the current leadership. In November 2023, CHP delegates elected Ozgur Ozel as chairman, replacing former leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu.
The decision also follows a civil court ruling on September 2 that annulled the party's October 2023 Istanbul provincial congress.
CHP previously held another extraordinary congress in April to counter the possibility of a trustee. Ozel was re-elected with 1,171 votes out of 1,323 registered delegates.
Bahceli Warns SDF/YPG of Possible Turkish-Syrian Military Action
Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) Chairman Devlet Bahceli, an ally of Turkey's ruling AK Party, warned that a joint Turkish-Syrian military intervention against the SDF/YPG would be "inevitable" if the group fails to meet its obligations under a memorandum of understanding signed with Damascus on March 10.
In a written statement released on the party's social media account, Bahceli said the call for "Peace and a Democratic Society" issued on February 27 by the PKK's founding leader, Abdullah Ocalan, was binding on all components of the group.
"The SDF/YPG is not an exception to this call," he said. "If words fail to deliver, countless acts of heroism will succeed."
Tuncer Bakırhan, co-chair of the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Equality and Democracy (DEM) Party, rejected Bahceli's remarks. He argued that the Syrian government was responsible for failing to implement the March 10 accord, and said that laying down arms under current conditions would amount to "surrender."
"If we are to discuss expectations and steps, we must remember that despite historic initiatives, not a single concrete step has yet been implemented," Bakırhan said.
Court Releases, Then Re-Arrests Beykoz Mayor in Corruption Case
On September 5, a Turkish court ordered the release pending trial of Beykoz Mayor Alaattin Koseler from the CHP, along with 12 other defendants held on corruption charges.
The Istanbul Anadolu 17th High Criminal Court ruled on the third day of hearings, citing the state of evidence and the length of detention. Prosecutors had requested the release of seven defendants and the continued detention of five, but the judges granted release to all 13.
However, on September 6, prosecutors objected to the ruling, and the court ordered the re-arrest of Koseler and five other defendants.
ECONOMY
Turkey's Inflation Exceeds Expectations, Economic Growth Surpasses Forecasts
Turkey's inflation rose 2.04 percent in August, bringing the annual rate to 32.95 percent, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat). Independent academic group ENAG calculated higher figures, estimating monthly inflation at 3.23 percent and annual inflation at 65.49 percent.
Turkey's economy expanded by 4.8 percent in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the same period last year, surpassing earlier Reuters poll estimates of 4.1 percent.
After inflation came in above expectations, JPMorgan said Turkey's central bank is likely to scale back its planned interest rate cuts, starting with a 200-basis-point reduction at its upcoming meeting. The bank now expects inflation to rise to 31.8 percent in September, higher than its previous year-end forecast of 29.5 percent.
Turkish Banks Sell $5 Billion to Support Lira After CHP Court Ruling
Turkish state-owned lenders sold an estimated $5 billion on September 2 and 3 to support the lira following a court ruling that dismissed the leadership of the Istanbul branch of the Republican People's Party (CHP) and appointed a five-member caretaker board, Bloomberg reported.
Most of the sales occurred on September 2, according to traders familiar with the transactions who spoke on condition of anonymity.
The court ruling also rattled other markets: the BIST-100 stock index fell nearly 6 percent on September 2, while government bond yields surged. The effects continued on September 3, with two-year bond yields rising 76 points to 40.73 percent and stocks losing an additional 1.7 percent.
Central Bank Total Reserves Reach Record $178.36 Billion
Turkey's Central Bank (CBRT) set a new record by raising its total reserves to $178.36 billion.
According to the CBRT's weekly money and banking statistics, gross foreign exchange reserves fell slightly by $59 million to $91.31 billion as of August 29. Meanwhile, gold reserves rose by $2.09 billion, from $85.24 billion to $87.33 billion.
Overall, the CBRT's total reserves increased by $2.03 billion compared to the previous week, marking a record-breaking level.
Turkey Begins Mass Production of Altay Main Battle Tank
Turkey has started mass production of its new main battle tank, the Altay, at the Ankara factory of domestic automaker BMC. The tank is powered by a locally developed engine known as BATU.
BMC Chairman Fuat Tosyalı said the Altay has entered production after years of prototype testing and will be delivered to the Turkish Armed Forces, with potential exports to allied countries. He added that the factory will also produce the Altug, a new eight-wheeled armored vehicle, and that the BATU engine program still requires thousands of kilometers of endurance testing before full deployment.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Bandwidth Throttling Reported Across Major Platforms in Turkey
Police in Turkey set up barricades around the CHP headquarters in Istanbul on September 7, while the party leadership urged supporters to gather at the provincial office. At the same time, a bandwidth throttling affecting X, Instagram, YouTube, and TikTok was reported, while WhatsApp and Telegram were only experiencing problems with certain service providers.
Istanbul Court Orders Block on Journalist Can Dundar's YouTube Channel
An Istanbul court has ordered the blocking of exiled journalist Can Dundar's YouTube channel, citing "national security and public order."
The decision came after Dundar called on the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) and its supporters to protest the government's appointment of trustees to the party. The court notified internet service providers, though access to the channel had not yet been restricted as of September 7.
In a recent video, Dundar argued that dismantling the rule of law had paved the way for civil disobedience. He said the CHP had "only one way out: to be on the street, to remain on the street, to use its legitimate power that comes from the street."
Turkey's Media Watchdog Orders BirGun TV to Obtain License Within 72 Hours
Turkey's media watchdog, the Radio and Television Supreme Council (RTUK), has given BirGun TV, which launched on YouTube on September 1, 72 hours to obtain a broadcasting license. If no application is submitted within that period, RTUK will seek an access ban on the channel.
CHP RTUK member Ilhan Tasci criticized the move on social media, saying:
"BirGun TV, which began broadcasting on YouTube on September 1, was given a 72-hour deadline by RTUK through a majority vote, despite having no legal basis. Meanwhile, dozens of channels aligned with the government or RTUK continue broadcasting illegally, including digitally, without paying license fees."
RTUK Imposes Five-Day Blackout on TELE 1
RTUK imposed a five-day broadcast blackout on pro-opposition channel TELE 1 starting just after midnight on September 1.
The penalty came after political commentator Merdan Yanardag described the July 15, 2016 coup attempt as an "Islamic coup attempt" and claimed that "the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government is mainly responsible for it" during his program 4 Questions 4 Answers.
In addition to the blackout, the media regulator fined TELE 1 an amount equal to 5 percent of its gross commercial revenue from the previous month.
The channel returned to the air on September 6 after the blackout ended.
41 People Detained in Nationwide Crackdown on Gulen Movement
Turkish Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya announced on September 4 that security forces detained 41 people in nationwide operations over the past 10 days as part of an ongoing crackdown on the Gulen movement.
The raids were carried out across 21 provinces, including major cities such as Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir. Courts ordered the arrest of 25 detainees, while seven others were released under judicial supervision. Legal proceedings for the remaining suspects are still underway, Yerlikaya said.
Turkey to Sell Maydonoz Doner Chain Allegedly Linked to Gulen Movement
Turkey's state-run Savings Deposit Insurance Fund (TMSF) has announced the sale of Maydonoz Doner, one of the country's largest fast-food chains, with a base price of 2.8 billion lira (about $68 million). The auction follows an investigation into allegations that the chain was used to finance the Gulen movement.
The tender covers the "Maydonoz Doner Group Commercial and Economic Integrity," which includes 390 Maydonoz Doner restaurants across Turkey as well as the My Fried Chicken franchise brand.
Interested buyers must place a deposit of 280.1 million lira to join the bidding. The process will begin with sealed offers, followed by an auction among shortlisted candidates. If necessary, TMSF said it may also hold negotiations before finalizing the sale.
FOREIGN POLICY
Erdogan Says Ukraine, Russia' Not Yet Ready' for Leaders' Meeting
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he discussed possible ways to end the Ukraine war with Russian President Vladimir Putin during talks in China and later with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy by phone. However, he noted that the two sides are "not yet ready" for a leaders' summit.
Speaking to reporters on his flight back from China, Erdogan said Turkey supports "gradually raising the level of negotiations" to turn hopes for peace into concrete outcomes. He added that any initiative would ultimately need to be resolved at the leaders' level, but that current conditions do not allow for such a meeting.
Putin, Erdogan Hold Talks in China on Energy and Regional Issues
Russian President Vladimir Putin met Turkish President Erdogan in China on September 1, where the two leaders discussed energy co-operation and regional developments.
Putin called the Russia–Turkey energy partnership "strategic," noting that Moscow supplies gas to Turkey through the Black Sea without interruption. He also thanked Erdogan for his diplomatic and political contributions to resolving the Ukraine crisis. Erdogan reiterated his invitation for Putin to visit Turkey.
According to Turkey's Directorate of Communications, the meeting addressed bilateral relations as well as regional and global issues. Erdogan stressed that Turkey continues its efforts to secure a just and lasting peace in Ukraine. He also expressed hope that negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia would result in lasting peace, adding that stability in the Caucasus is in the mutual interest of both Turkey and Russia.
Erdogan Urges U.S. to Reverse Visa Ban on Palestinian Delegation to UN
Turkish President Erdogan called on the United States to urgently reverse its decision to revoke visas for Palestinian officials, preventing them from attending this month's United Nations General Assembly in New York.
Washington announced last week that it would not allow Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and other officials to travel to New York.
"This move does not fit the United Nations' raison d'être," Erdogan told reporters on his return flight from China. "The decision needs to be urgently revised. The United Nations General Assembly exists for the issues of the world to be discussed and for solutions to be found."
Erdogan added that preventing the Palestinian delegation's participation "would only please Israel."
Erdogan, Xi Agree to Deepen Trade and Technology Ties at SCO Summit
President Erdogan met with Chinese President Xi Jinping during the Shanghai Co-operation Organization summit, where the two leaders agreed to expand co-operation in trade, transportation, and technology, according to Beijing's readout.
The sides pledged to link China's Belt and Road Initiative with Turkey's Middle Corridor project, creating a trade route from Asia to Europe via the South Caucasus and Turkey. They also agreed to develop a southern branch of the China–Europe Railway Express and enhance co-operation in renewable energy, 5G, and biomedicine. Turkey reaffirmed its support for the one-China policy, recognizing Beijing's sovereignty over Taiwan.
In a statement, Turkey's Directorate of Communications said Erdogan emphasized that bilateral trade should be supported by investments to ensure balance and sustainability, and that greater coordination would benefit Chinese companies investing in Turkey. The statement added that Erdogan highlighted the strategic dimension of relations between the two countries while reiterating Ankara's commitment to the one-China policy.
Libya's Haftar Expected to Visit Turkey Amid Thaw in Relations
Eastern Libya's military leader Khalifa Haftar is expected to visit Turkey later this month, in a sign of warming ties after years of hostility, according to sources familiar with the matter who spoke to Middle East Eye.
Haftar hosted Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin last week, the first senior-level contact between the two sides. Three regional sources said Kalin extended an invitation for Haftar to travel to Turkey, which the Libyan commander accepted in principle. The timing of the visit could shift depending on developments on the ground, they added.
The contacts come as Ankara presses Libya's Haftar-aligned parliament in Tobruk to ratify a 2019 maritime delimitation deal signed with the UN-recognised Government of National Unity in Tripoli.
Turkish Airlines Resumes Flights to Libya's Misrata After 10-Year Suspension
Turkish Airlines resumed scheduled flights to Misrata, Libya's third-largest city, on September 2 after a decade-long suspension caused by civil unrest. Flights from Istanbul Airport to Misrata will operate three times a week, on Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays.
Speaking at a ceremony marking the arrival of the first plane, Libyan Transport Minister Muhammad al-Shahoubi said the resumption of flights is a demonstration of Turkey's support for his country.
Turkish Organized Crime Gains Foothold in Spain
Turkish organized crime networks are becoming increasingly visible in Spain, particularly in Catalonia and along the Costa del Sol, Catalan newspaper Ara reported, citing sources from the Mossos d'Esquadra, the regional police force. The report notes that, similar to Albanian gangs in recent years, Turkish criminal groups are gaining a foothold in Spanish territory.
The Turkish consulate in Barcelona said it has no official record of mafia activity in the region. "We have not received any information recently to confirm this," an official said. Nonetheless, the presence of certain Turkish criminal clans in Spanish territory is evident.
When asked, the Turkish consulate in Barcelona said it has no official record of Turkish mafia activity in Catalonia. "We have not received any information recently to confirm this," an official source said.
Researchers and journalists, however, point to a clear presence. Mustafa Enes Esen, a researcher and political analyst at InstituDE, stated that Turkish organized crime in Spain is particularly linked to the activities of Umit Yalcin, known as "Umit the Gypsy," who is reportedly deeply embedded in Spanish criminal groups.
Journalist Cevheri Guven, an expert on Turkish organized crime, told Ara that these groups operate along the Mediterranean coast and in major port cities, including Barcelona. Guven added that Spain serves as a strategic gateway for the cocaine trade, providing direct access to South American cartels, particularly Colombian networks.
Turkey Welcomes OSCE's Dissolution of Minsk Group
On September 2, Turkey welcomed the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe's (OSCE) decision to dissolve the Minsk Group, the body established in 1992 to mediate the Armenia–Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh.
In a statement, the Turkish Foreign Ministry called the move "a historic decision, made possible through the joint efforts of the two countries," and regarded it as "one of the significant milestones in the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia". The OSCE Ministerial Council formally approved the dissolution on September 1.
This decision follows an August 8 summit at the White House hosted by U.S. President Donald Trump, where Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan signed a U.S.-brokered joint declaration and appealed to the OSCE to dissolve the group.
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