"Our Experts' Views on Erdogan's White House Visit" by Mustafa Enes Esen, Mehmet Demirbas, and Imdat Oner, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
Mehmet Demirbas: The overall tone of the press session suggested that U.S. President Donald Trump approached contentious issues with a light touch. His casual dismissal of the Halkbank case indicated that the matter would not become a serious point of tension. Similarly, his remarks hinting at the possible lifting of CAATSA sanctions against Turkey were welcomed in Ankara. Overall, the meeting provided Turkey with relief on trade, defense, and diplomatic fronts, while also giving President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan a political boost.
Imdat Oner: From Erdoğan's perspective, this visit will be presented domestically as a major victory. The support he received from Trump—or the "legitimacy" expressed by the U.S. Ambassador to Turkey—could enable Erdoğan to further accelerate his authoritarian agenda. As seen in the case of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, Erdoğan has shown no hesitation in leveraging his ties with Trump to consolidate power. It would not be surprising if this dynamic strengthens in the coming period.
Mustafa Enes Esen: Trump gave Erdoğan a very warm and cordial welcome. This reflects both their personal rapport and Turkey’s recent announcement of plans to purchase tens of billions of dollars’ worth of goods from the U.S. Still, not everything is rosy in bilateral relations. During the press conference, Trump urged Turkey to halt oil imports from Russia, a sensitive issue given Turkey’s heavy reliance on energy imports. Even so, Erdoğan is likely to leave Washington highly satisfied, with prospects of securing concessions on arms and aircraft purchases, sanctions relief, and the Halkbank case.
"Turkish Drones Are Fueling a Somali Shadow War" by Mohamed Gabobe, Foreign Policy
Turkey is waging a drone war against al-Shabab in Somalia from a joint command with Somalia’s intelligence agency. (The United States and United Arab Emirates are also involved in Somalia’s drone operations.) It carries out drone strikes at the behest of Somalia’s National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA), with Somalia’s NISA feeding Turkey intelligence on targets, and Turkey then carrying out the strikes.
A lack of transparency around drone attacks conducted by Turkey can play into the hands of the armed groups that these drone strikes target, as the groups exploit public backlash and sentiment from suffering communities.
"Erdogan vs. the CHP: What's Next in Turkey's Political Battle?" by Soner Cagaptay, The Washington Institute
Prosecutors will likely launch additional cases against CHP mayors and other officials, with the courts continuing to sack and jail them and find replacements from within the party's opposing wings in order to stoke internal party strife. The courts will also intentionally keep cases against the CHP and its leaders open-ended, a situation that applies especially to Imamoglu. Erdogan believes that time is on his side, and he has proven that he can shape the media narrative regarding court cases.
A decisive CHP surge could result in Erdogan reverting to nationalist politics to boost his base, such as on the Kurdish issue, including by renewing Ankara's hardline stance toward U.S. cooperation with the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces in Syria. In another scenario, Erdogan might close ranks with the Trump administration on Syria as well as other regional and global issues to burnish his strongman image, while simultaneously cracking down on the CHP.
CHP Declares Boycott of Parliament Opening
The CHP's Party Assembly (PM), elected during the 22nd Extraordinary Congress, convened for its first meeting, approving Chairman Ozgur Ozel's proposed Central Executive Board (MYK) members without any changes to the existing lineup.
The assembly also addressed the upcoming legislative year of the Parliament, set to begin on October 1. Following the meeting, CHP Spokesperson Deniz Yucel announced that the party would boycott the opening of the General Assembly, where AK Party Chairman and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is scheduled to speak.
Citing a series of operations targeting the CHP and its municipalities over the past year, Yucel emphasized the party's stance, stating: "Given the current political environment, we will not greet the President, either sitting or standing. He has lost his legitimacy in our eyes. We will neither greet him nor bid him farewell at the opening of Parliament."
Imamoglu Faces Trial Over Remarks Targeting Court-Appointed Expert Witness
Speaking from a courtroom in Silivri on September 26, Istanbul's jailed opposition mayor Ekrem Imamoglu said he was "not afraid," calling the charges against him part of a wider campaign of "judicial harassment."
Imamoglu faced trial over comments he made in January about a court-appointed expert involved in cases targeting town halls run by the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP). His wife, Dilek Kaya, CHP leader Ozgur Ozel, and several CHP members attended the hearing in support.
Calling the proceedings "a case with no solid basis at all," Imamoglu accused Erdogan and the government of using the judiciary as a political weapon. He pointed to Erdogan's 2018 White House meeting on September 25 with US President Donald Trump, who thanked Erdogan for helping secure the release of a US pastor, as evidence of political manipulation of the courts. The court set the next hearing for December 12.
Five Arrested in Ankara Concert Corruption Probe Targeting Opposition-Run City Hall
A Turkish court on September 26 ordered the arrest of five people, including former Ankara Metropolitan Municipality officials, over a corruption investigation into spending on concerts organized by the opposition-led city hall.
The arrests followed a September 23 detention sweep in which 14 current and former municipal officials were taken into custody on allegations of misconduct and bid rigging.
The Ankara Criminal Court ruled that the suspects—including former heads of the municipality's culture department and executives from private event companies—be jailed pending trial on charges of bid rigging and embezzlement. Nine others were released under judicial supervision.
Prosecutors claim that 32 cultural events held between 2021 and 2024 resulted in a loss of 154 million lira ($3.7 million) due to inflated contracts, citing findings from the Interior Ministry, the Financial Crimes Investigation Board, and the Court of Accounts.
Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas rejected the accusations, calling the probe politically motivated and noting that earlier audits found no irregularities.
CHP Leader Says Yavas Seen as Opposition's Strongest Presidential Candidate
Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas is the leading opposition contender for President if Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu is barred from running, Republican People's Party (CHP) leader Ozgur Ozel told the daily Evrensel in an interview.
Ozel said Yavas currently polls ahead of President Erdogan, making him a key target of politically driven investigations. He pointed to the ongoing corruption probe into spending on Ankara Municipality concerts, calling it an "operation" aimed at damaging both Yavas and the CHP.
Court Orders Suspension of CHP Istanbul Congress, but Top Election Board Allows Vote to Proceed
The Istanbul 45th Civil Court of First Instance ordered the suspension of proceedings related to the CHP Istanbul Provincial Congress on September 24, citing the validity of an earlier injunction that blocked the vote.
In a written decision, the court stated that the appeal process for the injunction had not yet begun and that its earlier ruling remained "current and valid." The court warned that proceeding with the congress would violate its decision unless overturned by the Istanbul Regional Court of Justice.
Enforcement officers were sent to the congress hall to publicly deliver the order.
However, the Supreme Election Council (YSK) convened an extraordinary meeting and ruled that the congress would continue. YSK President Ahmet Yener said the board determined it was "not possible to stop a congress process that has already begun," citing Article 79 of the Constitution and relevant election laws.
The current CHP Provincial Chairman, Ozgur Celik, who had previously been suspended from his post by a court decision, was the sole candidate at the congress and was re-elected as provincial chairman.
CHP Expels Six Members, Including Gursel Tekin, for Violating Party Rules
Turkey's main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) has permanently expelled six members, including senior figures Gursel Tekin and Baris Yarkadas, following a ruling by the party's High Disciplinary Board on September 26.
The board stated that Tekin, Savas Aras, Erkan Narsap, Zeki Sen, Levent Celik, and Yarkadas exhibited "attitudes and behaviors incompatible with their duties and responsibilities in the party, and with their membership."
Tekin, who was appointed trustee to the CHP Istanbul Provincial Headquarters by court order, had entered the provincial headquarters on September 8 under police escort.
Turkey's BOTAS Signs $43 Billion LNG Deal With US Firm Mercuria
Turkey's state-owned pipeline operator BOTAS has signed a 20-year liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply agreement with the US energy company Mercuria, just two days before the Erdogan–Trump meeting. The deal covers 70 billion cubic meters (BCM) of LNG.
The signing took place in New York on September 23 during President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's visit to the United Nations General Assembly. Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar, BOTAS Chairman and CEO Abdulvahit Fidan, and Mercuria President and co-founder Daniel Jaeggi attended the ceremony.
Under the agreement, deliveries will start in 2026 with 4 BCM and continue through the end of 2045. Bayraktar said that the deal will strengthen BOTAS's position in the global LNG market while enhancing Turkey's energy security, price stability, and supply diversification. He added that it will also support Ankara's goal of boosting bilateral trade with the United States to $100 billion.
The contract is estimated to exceed $43 billion over its lifetime, with annual LNG purchases valued at roughly $2.15 billion.
Turkish Airlines Orders Up to 225 Boeing Jets After Erdogan–Trump Meeting
Turkish Airlines announced on September 26 that it will buy up to 225 Boeing aircraft, just one day after President Erdogan met US President Donald Trump at the White House.
The deal includes 150 confirmed jets scheduled for delivery between 2029 and 2034, with an option for 75 more, the airline said in a statement without disclosing the total cost.
The order comprises 50 Boeing 787 Dreamliners, with an option for 25 additional planes, as well as 100 Boeing 737 MAX jets, with an option for 50 more.
Turkish Airlines added that it is negotiating with Rolls-Royce and GE Aerospace for engines, spare parts, and maintenance services for the Dreamliners.
"With these orders, we aim to transition our entire fleet to next-generation aircraft by 2035, boosting efficiency and supporting an average annual growth rate of six percent," the airline said.
Turkey and US Sign Civil Nuclear Cooperation Deal
Turkey signed a civil nuclear cooperation memorandum of understanding with the United States during President Erdogan's visit to the White House on September 25.
Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar announced the deal on X, describing it as a "new phase" in bilateral relations and a step toward deeper collaboration in nuclear energy following Erdogan's meeting with US President Donald Trump. The details of the memorandum have not yet been disclosed.
Turkey Lifts 2018 Retaliatory Tariffs on US Goods Ahead of US Visit
Turkey announced on September 22 that it has scrapped retaliatory tariffs imposed in 2018 on a range of U.S. imports, including passenger cars and fruit, signaling a thaw in trade relations ahead of President Erdogan's visit to Washington. The levies were originally introduced in response to US tariffs on steel and aluminum enacted during Donald Trump's first term.
The cancellation, published in Turkey's Official Gazette, applies to duties that previously covered a wide array of products, including rice, pistachios, tobacco, alcoholic beverages, solid fuels, and chemical goods.
Turkey's trade ministry stated that the tariffs had been revised over the years in response to bilateral actions, but noted that some remain in effect until now.
On the same day, Turkey introduced a new measure, imposing an additional 25% to 30% customs duty on passenger car imports. The higher tariffs exclude vehicles from the European Union and countries that have free trade agreements with Turkey.
Fidan Says US Congress Blocks KAAN Engine Licenses
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, speaking in New York during the 80th United Nations General Assembly, stated that US sanctions and congressional restrictions pose a significant obstacle to Turkey’s defense industry and damage the spirit of the NATO alliance.
Addressing reporters at the Turkevi (Turkish House), Fidan described the Countering US Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) imposed after 2019 as “a major problem”. “These restrictions create a systemic problem between the two NATO allies,” he said, urging Washington to abolish the sanctions.
Fidan also revealed that the US Congress is holding up export licenses for KAAN fighter jet engines. “The engines we expect to purchase for the KAAN project are stuck in the US Congress. Production cannot begin without a license,” he said.
Oil Exports Resume Through Iraq–Turkey Pipeline After 2.5-Year Halt
Crude oil began flowing again on September 27 from Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan region to Turkey, ending a 2.5-year suspension after an interim deal resolved a long-standing deadlock, Iraq's oil ministry announced.
The ministry said the restart began at 6 a.m. local time (0300 GMT) and was carried out "at a rapid pace and with complete smoothness without recording any significant technical problems."
Under the agreement between Iraq's federal government, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), and foreign oil producers, 180,000 to 190,000 barrels per day will be exported to Turkey's Ceyhan port. A preliminary plan reached on September 24 requires the KRG to deliver at least 230,000 barrels per day to Iraq's state oil marketer SOMO, while retaining 50,000 barrels per day for local use, according to Iraqi officials.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio welcomed the development, saying the agreement would "provide tangible benefits for both Americans and Iraqis."
EBRD Flags Political and Market Risks While Raising Turkey's 2025 Growth Forecast
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) upgraded its growth projection for Turkey to 3.1% in 2025, up 0.3 percentage points from its May forecast, while keeping the 2026 forecast unchanged at 3.5%, according to its latest regional report covering emerging Europe, Central Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.
The bank expects Turkey's growth to remain between 3.1% and 3.5% over the 2025–2026 period, supported by easing financial conditions.
"Political tensions, volatile risk sentiment, and tighter global financing conditions remain key risks, given Turkey's substantial short-term external financing needs," the report said.
The EBRD also noted that easing tensions in Syria and the Caucasus, along with closer cooperation with the European Union, could help Turkey leverage its strengths in construction, logistics, and defense.
Goldman Sachs Raises Inflation and Interest Rate Forecasts for Turkey
U.S.-based investment bank Goldman Sachs has revised its year-end inflation and policy rate projections for Turkey.
The bank increased its year-end inflation estimate from 27 percent to 29 percent, while keeping its 2026 forecast unchanged at 20 percent.
It also raised its year-end policy rate forecast from 35.5% to 37%.
Istanbul Prosecutors Arrest Can Holding Chairman, Issue Warrant for Ciner Group Owner
The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor's Office announced on September 28 the arrest of Kemal Can, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Can Holding, as part of an ongoing investigation into the company. An arrest warrant was also issued for Turgay Ciner, owner and manager of the Ciner Group.
The statement noted that authorities have "strong suspicions and findings regarding the laundering of criminal assets" linked to Ciner's acquisitions of media outlets, including Show TV, Haberturk, and HT Spor. It added that Ciner is currently abroad and subject to an arrest warrant.
Meanwhile, a trustee has been appointed to oversee Ciner's Park Holding A.S. and two affiliated companies.
Detention Warrants Issued for 10 Foreign Affairs Employees in Gulen Movement Investigation
The Ankara Chief Public Prosecutor's Office announced that it has issued detention warrants for 10 people in connection with an investigation into the Gulen Movement's alleged network within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
According to the office, the warrants target 10 individuals—four of whom are currently active and six who have been dismissed. Police carried out simultaneous operations across six provinces.
Turkey's Top Court Clears Way for Trial of Officials Over Deadly Kartalkaya Hotel Fire
The Council of State, Turkey's highest administrative court, has overturned a decision by the culture and tourism minister that had shielded 12 ministry officials from prosecution over a hotel fire that killed 78 people at a ski resort in Bolu's Kartalkaya mountain area last January.
The ruling followed an appeal filed earlier this month by lawyer Onur Firat Kaynun on behalf of the victims' families.
The court said nine of the 12 Culture and Tourism Ministry officials can now face trial in connection with the fire. The September 25 decision has been forwarded to the Bolu Chief Public Prosecutor's Office to proceed with the charges.
Erdogan Reports "Meaningful Progress" After White House Meeting with Trump
Turkish President Erdogan stated that he and US President Donald Trump made "meaningful progress" on a range of regional and bilateral issues during their meeting on September 25 at the White House—their first in six years. The talks focused on defense cooperation and trade.
Speaking to reporters on his return flight from Washington, Erdogan said they discussed revising customs duties to help reach their $100 billion trade target and that he left the meeting "happy" with the outcome. "It's certainly impossible to resolve every issue in a single meeting. However, this meeting has led to meaningful progress on many issues," he said, according to a transcript released on September 26.
Key agenda items included Turkey's bid to purchase Lockheed Martin F-16 fighter jets and its push to lift US sanctions that block the sale of advanced F-35 jets. Trump signaled he might consider removing the sanctions, which Washington imposed in 2020 during his first term, over Turkey's acquisition of Russian S-400 missile defenses.
Trump, when asked if Turkey would stop purchasing Russian oil, said he believed Ankara would comply with his request. "I believe he will stop it, yeah. You know why? Because he can buy it from a lot of other people," Trump told reporters.
Trump Links Erdogan to "Rigged Elections" in White House Remarks
US President Donald Trump stirred debate over election integrity in Turkey on September 25 when he quipped during a White House meeting that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan "knows about rigged elections better than anybody."
The remark came as Trump, seated beside Erdogan in the Oval Office, once again repeated his claim that fraud cost him the 2020 US election. "We've been friends for a long time, actually, even for four years when I was in exile, unfairly, as it turns out — rigged election," Trump said. Gesturing toward Erdogan, he added, "You know he knows about rigged elections better than anybody."
Erdogan, who spoke after Trump, did not comment on the US president's pointed remark or his reference to alleged election fraud.
Rubio: Countries, Including Turkey, Are Begging US to Intervene in Conflicts
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio responded sharply to Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan's remarks on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Gaza war, saying that countries publicly criticize Washington but privately seek US involvement.
Speaking on a TV program, Rubio said, "All of these other countries, including Turkey, are begging us to be involved. Look, these people go out and say what they want to say, but at the end of the day, when they want something done, they come – they want to come to the White House."
Erdogan, who was in New York for the 80th United Nations General Assembly, told FOX News: "If you remember, Mr. Trump made a statement. He said, 'I will end the Russia-Ukraine war.' Is it over? It's still ongoing. He also said, 'I will end the Gaza war.' Is it over? No."
Rubio added, "President Erdogan is coming to the White House this week to meet with the President. They all come to the White House, they all want to speak to President Trump, they all want President Trump to fix it."
Erdogan's communications office in Washington sent a statement to Fox News clarifying his remarks ahead of his visit to the White House.
"President Erdogan's response to a question regarding the ending of wars was subject to a loss of meaning during translation," the statement said. "During the interview, President Erdogan emphasized that bringing wars to an end involves significant challenges and costs and recognized President Trump's efforts in this regard."
The correction was read on air, but Fox News stated that it stands by the accuracy of its translation.
Author and Director of the Middle East Institute's Turkish Program Gonul Tol claimed in a post on her X account that Trump was angered by Erdogan's comments about her and conveyed his displeasure directly to Erdogan. According to Tol, Erdogan’s office issued this statement quickly.
US Envoy Says Trump Seeks to Give Erdogan "Legitimacy"
Tom Barrack, the U.S. ambassador to Ankara and special envoy for Syria, made striking remarks about Turkey and President Erdogan during a September 24 event in New York.
Addressing tensions between Turkey and the US Congress, Barrack said US President Donald Trump had introduced a new approach to handling disputes. "Our President said, 'I'm tired of this. Let's take a bold step in our relations and give him what he needs,” Barrack recounted. “When I asked, ‘Okay, Mr. President, what does he need?’ he said, ‘legitimacy.’ He’s a very smart man. The issue isn’t borders, S-400s, or F-16s. The issue is legitimacy.”
Barrack described Erdogan as “71 years old” and Turkey as “a democracy, but it feels authoritarian,” adding that Trump’s strategy is to provide Erdogan with the legitimacy he seeks. “That’s what’s happening now. I think you’ll see major changes as a result,” he said.
Erdoğan, Trump and Arab Leaders Hold Gaza Peace Talks at UN
Turkish President Erdogan attended an event with US President Donald Trump and leaders from across the Arab and Muslim world on September 23 to discuss ways to end Israel’s war in Gaza.
The talks, held on the sidelines of the 80th United Nations General Assembly, brought together the leaders of Egypt, Indonesia, Jordan, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates.
Before the meeting, Trump said, “We want to end the war in Gaza. We want to take the hostages back and return to life.”
After the meeting, Erdogan described the talks as “very, very productive” and expressed hope for a positive outcome.
Erdogan Signals Possible Meeting with Bartholomew on Reopening Halki Seminary
Turkish President Erdogan announced that he plans to meet soon with the spiritual leader of the world’s 300 million Orthodox Christians to discuss reopening a key theological school near Istanbul, which has been closed for over 50 years. The Halki seminary, founded in 1844, is a vital institution for the Eastern Orthodox Church.
US President Donald Trump raised the issue during his White House talks with Erdogan, noting that the Greek Orthodox Church had brought it up when Patriarch Bartholomew visited him the previous week.
“We are ready to do whatever is incumbent upon us regarding the Heybeliada school,” Erdogan told Trump. “I will have the opportunity to discuss this matter with (Patriarch) Bartholomew upon my return.”
Erdogan's office said that it was not yet clear when the meeting would take place.
Turkey Deploys AWACS Aircraft to Lithuania Amid NATO Airspace Tensions
Turkey temporarily deployed a warning and control aircraft to Lithuania as part of NATO security measures, the country’s defense ministry said on September 25, following repeated airspace violations by Russian drones.
“Within the scope of NATO Assurance Measures, our Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft is carrying out missions in Lithuanian airspace between September 22–25,” the ministry said in its weekly press statement.
In recent weeks, Lithuania, Estonia, Denmark, and Poland have reported incursions into their airspace by Russian drones or fighter jets.
Turkey to Send Troops to Train Niger’s Military
Turkey will soon deploy a limited number of troops to Niger to assist in training the country’s military in countering militant groups, according to Middle East Eye.
According to a source, a small team of Turkish commandos and special forces—veterans of operations in Syria and Iraq—will assist Niger’s army with training to combat Islamic State and al-Qaeda affiliates. Two people familiar with the plan said that at least four battalions will provide training and advisory support, although Turkish forces will not participate in combat missions.
The deployment does not require approval from Turkey’s parliament because the troops will operate in a limited “visiting” capacity without establishing permanent bases or securing territory.
“Following this military partnership, closer cooperation in strategic sectors such as oil and uranium is likely in the near future,” said Ibrahim Bachir Abdoulaye, a doctoral researcher at the Bayreuth International Graduate School of African Studies.
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