ANALYSIS
"Would Turkey Follow Saudi Arabia into Yemen?" by Mustafa Enes Esen, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
While fighting fellow Muslims in another country may not pose a major problem for the AKP leadership, it would take a great effort, with the next presidential election approaching in 2028, to persuade Turkish citizens to fight 'somebody else's war.'
It would not be wise for the Saudis to count on the Turks to fight a war in Yemen. If a Saudi campaign comes at all, it will mainly be Riyadh's to wage and Washington's to enable. A shift in the war, such as a direct threat to Turkish interests or pressure Ankara cannot deflect, could still change Ankara's calculus. Yet under the current circumstances, Turkey will likely provide technical support, arms, and mercenaries, but otherwise keep out of the fighting.
"Taking on the Houthis? Turkey could pay a steep price" by Ragip Soylu and Levent Kemal, Middle East Eye
The general view in Ankara is that Turkey cannot afford a confrontation with the Houthis and should instead focus on building bridges among Saudi Arabia, Iran and the Yemeni group. Senior regional officials familiar with the discussions told MEE that Turkey was preparing to provide defensive assistance while avoiding direct intervention inside Yemen.
The officials said the assistance could include the deployment of aircraft, operators and technical personnel, possibly beginning in October after Turkey ratifies the Mecca defence pact. The Turkish parliament is currently in recess and is not expected to consider ratification before then. “Preparations and discussions are ongoing,” one regional official said. “The defence system will be established to counter attacks originating from Yemen, including missiles and drones.”
"Turkey defies European orders to free political prisoners", The Economist
Its findings in Mr Kavala’s case of systematic interference in Turkey’s justice system can be applied to upcoming cases, including that of Ekrem Imamoglu, the mayor of Istanbul who was arrested after deciding to run against Mr Erdogan for the presidency.
Turkey has a face-saving way out. Its constitutional court could take up Mr Kavala’s appeals, allowing Turkey to comply through its own courts rather than obey an order from abroad. Turkish authorities said after the ruling that Mr Kavala could reopen his case at home. Should that route fail, Riza Turmen, a former ECHR judge, worries that the stakes will rise higher. Abandoning the convention would mean severing one of Turkey’s longest institutional links to the West. “It would no longer be a modern democratic state governed by the rule of law,” he says. “Even if that’s only on paper.”
"COP31 Host Turkey Faces Own Policy Change to Meet Renewable Target" by Selcan Hacaoglu and Laura Millan, Bloomberg
Ahead of this year’s COP31 climate gathering in Antalya, Turkey is seeking support from policymakers attending Climate Week in New York next week for a global target of 35% electrification by 2035. The country’s official projections forecast it will only have achieved 25% electrification by that date.
Turkey’s commitment to install 120 gigawatts of new wind and solar capacity by 2035 is “commendable,” Climate Action Tracker said. But the country would need to increase that to at least 150 gigawatts to align its climate plans with the global goal of keeping warming at 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. Climate Action Tracker ranks the country’s climate plan as “critically insufficient.”
POLITICS
Erdogan Allies Signal Bid for Final Presidential Term in 2028
Chief presidential adviser Mehmet Ucum said on September 17 that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will seek another term in the next presidential election, which he described as Erdogan's final term.
Ucum proposed April 16, 2028, as a possible election date and said parliament would first need to approve a decision to hold an early election. He said Erdogan's candidacy had already been settled politically and that parliament now needed to complete the constitutional process required for his bid.
A day later, Justice Minister Akin Gurlek said Turkey would hold an election in 2028 to "re-elect" Erdogan as president. Gurlek made the remarks during a meeting with members of the ruling Justice and Development Party, or AK Party, in the southern province of Adana.
He told party members they would play an important role in the election campaign and urged them to explain the government's "Century of Turkey" program to voters.
Ocalan to Join Panel Overseeing PKK Disarmament, Erdogan Adviser Says
Jailed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Ocalan will join a panel overseeing the group’s disarmament, presidential adviser Mehmet Ucum said on September 17.
Ucum said Ocalan would take part in a subcommittee focused on the PKK laying down its arms. He said the arrangement would allow Ocalan to play a more effective role in the peace process.
Ucum made clear, however, that Ocalan’s participation would not lead to his release.
Turkey's Court of Cassation Prosecutor Orders New Party to Change Name
The Office of the Chief Public Prosecutor at Turkey's Court of Cassation has formally notified the New Party (Yeni Parti) that it must change its name following a complaint from the Innovation Party (Yenilik Partisi), journalist Ismail Saymaz reported. The notice reached the New Party on September 14, according to Saymaz.
The Innovation Party, led by Chairman Ozturk Yilmaz, filed the complaint over the similarity between the two party names. In its submission to the prosecutor's office, the party argued that the terms "Yeni" and "Yenilik" could confuse the public. The party asked the prosecutor's office to require the New Party to adopt a different name.
ECONOMY
Finance Minister Raises Estimate of Iran War's Impact on Inflation
Turkey's finance minister on September 16 raised his estimate of the Iran war's impact on annual inflation to at least 7 percentage points from at least 5 points in June, while pledging that the government would maintain its anti-inflation program during the election period.
Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek told a joint Bloomberg HT and Haberturk broadcast that disinflation was continuing but at a slower pace than the government wanted.
"Without the war, inflation as of today would have been at least 7 points lower," Simsek said. He added that annual inflation would have ended 2026 at around 21% to 22% without the war.
Simsek also defended the Turkish Statistical Institute, known as TurkStat, saying it produces data in line with international standards.
Turkey Takes Measures to Contain Market Fallout After Fund Redemption Defaults
Turkish authorities moved to shore up financial stability on September 17 after several investment funds struggled to meet client redemption requests amid a sharp selloff in the country's stock market earlier in the week.
Tera Portfoy helped trigger the selloff on September 16. The company, which manages about $13.7 billion in assets, said that day that it had defaulted on redemption payments from its money-market and equity funds, a day after Pusula Portfoy reported similar difficulties.
Turkey's benchmark stock index fell more than 5% on September 16, intensifying scrutiny of the country's capital markets and raising concerns that liquidity pressures at a handful of funds could spread through the broader financial system.
The central bank increased repo funding to 300 billion liras and raised banks' borrowing limits in the interbank money market tenfold to support lira liquidity.
On September 18, Turkey's Capital Markets Board, known as SPK, appointed Isbank and Ziraat Bank to oversee the liquidation of 131 investment funds managed by seven portfolio companies. The move followed earlier decisions to suspend trading in the funds. The funds held more than 890 billion liras ($18.3 billion) in assets under management.
The Turkish Wealth Fund also bought shares through an exchange-traded vehicle operated by state-owned brokerage Ziraat Portfoy to support the Borsa Istanbul 30 Index, which tracks the country's 30 largest publicly traded companies, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter. One source said the fund would continue intervening if it saw extreme volatility in the coming days.
Authorities also stepped up investigations into suspected market manipulation. Turkish authorities jailed four people pending trial and imposed travel bans and asset restrictions on 51 others on September 18, Justice Minister Akin Gurlek said. The four people sent to jail included a fund board chairman and board members. Gurlek said the court also ordered restrictions on accounts and assets to prevent their transfer.
On September 19, the Justice Ministry said authorities had detained five people as part of an investigation launched after several investment funds defaulted on redemption requests. The ministry identified those detained as Pusula Holding Chairman Serdar Turhan, Tera Yatirim Holding Chairman Emre Tezmen and three fund administrators.
Turkey Tightens Oversight of Iran-Linked Banks, Funds and Airline
Turkey tightened its oversight of financial institutions linked to Iran after U.S. sanctions targeted companies associated with Golden Global and regulators moved against the group and Bank Mellat's Istanbul branch.
On September 16, the Savings Deposit Insurance Fund took control of a 99.98% stake in Golden Global Yatirim Bankasi held by its three shareholders, effectively placing the bank under state-appointed management.
A day later, the Capital Markets Board (SPK) approved the liquidation of six funds managed by Golden Global Portfoy. The funds include Golden Global's short-term lease certificates, gold and money-market participation funds, and three venture capital investment funds managed by the company.
In a parallel development, Turkey's banking regulator revoked the operating licence of Iranian lender Bank Mellat's Istanbul branch. The Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BDDK) published the decision in the Official Gazette on September 17, stating that it had revoked the operating licence of Bank Mellat's Istanbul Central Branch, whose head office is in Tehran.
The decision did not refer to U.S. sanctions or cite specific operational problems. The regulator said it acted under a provision of Turkey's banking law that allows authorities to revoke or withdraw a bank's licence if its continued operation could put depositors' rights at risk or threaten the security and stability of the financial system.
Turkey will also suspend flights by privately owned Iranian carrier Mahan Air from September 21, officials said on September 18. The move follows U.S. sanctions earlier this month against Turkish ground-services companies S Sistem, Mes Cargo and Sky Phoenix for supporting the airline.
The suspension will affect all Mahan Air flights to and from Iran, the officials said.
The airline confirmed on September 18 that it would stop flights to and from Turkey from September 21 and said it would also suspend services to Oman and Georgia.
Turkey Busts Israel-Linked Fraud Network Accused of $266 Million Scam
Turkish security forces have dismantled an Israel-linked international fraud network known as "Scam Empire" that allegedly defrauded victims in Europe, the Far East and Africa of at least $266 million over the past two years, Justice Minister Akin Gurlek said on September 18.
Security forces conducted dawn raids at 236 addresses in Istanbul and Mugla in an operation coordinated with Turkey's National Intelligence Organization, or MIT, and Interpol.
Gurlek said the forex fraud investigation targeted 42 call centers operated by 28 companies and involved 239 suspects. Turkish officials identified one alleged mastermind by the initials YA and described him as an Israeli national who also holds a Portuguese passport.
Gurlek said investigators uncovered an organized fraud network operating across multiple countries after establishing that individuals linked to Israel owned and ultimately controlled the companies involved.
As of September 19, authorities had detained 201 people in the investigation, including nine Israeli citizens. Officials also seized or froze real estate, vehicles, bank accounts and cryptocurrency assets suspected of being linked to the proceeds of the alleged fraud.
The Interior Ministry said the operation targeted assets worth about 1.5 billion Turkish liras, or roughly $31 million, including 80 vehicles and 12 properties.
Boeing Nears Final Deal for 150 737 MAX Jets After Turkish Airlines Dispute
Boeing is close to finalizing a delayed order for 150 737 MAX jets after Turkish Airlines threatened to walk away from the high-profile deal over a maintenance dispute with engine maker CFM, four people familiar with the matter told Reuters.
The disagreement over Turkish Airlines’ request for an industrial deal covering engine maintenance has moved closer to a resolution and could be signed next week, three of the sources said.
Public confirmation of the order would avert a potentially embarrassing reversal of last year’s White House announcement, one of several Boeing deals linked to U.S. President Donald Trump, two of the sources said.
Industry sources later said Turkish Airlines also wanted to establish its own maintenance plant for engines that power the 737 MAX by joining CFM’s top tier of maintenance partners directly. The move would give the airline faster access to the latest repair technology.
It remained unclear whether the two sides had reached an agreement on the maintenance facility.
Istanbul Court Jails 40 Produce Executives Pending Trial Over Price-Fixing Allegations
An Istanbul court has ordered the pre-trial detention of 40 executives from major fruit and vegetable distribution companies over allegations that they manipulated supply and prices to drive up profits.
Prosecutors had issued detention warrants for 41 executives. Police searched 109 homes and businesses across 22 provinces as part of the investigation. One suspect remains at large.
Justice Minister Akin Gurlek announced the investigation on September 15, saying authorities would pursue businesses and individuals who manipulate prices for profit.
Turkey's Tax Inspection Board, known as VDK, collected statements from 1,029 farmers as part of the investigation. Its report said some suspects used their dominant market positions to underreport product supplies while inflating costs.
The report also found that the suspects unnecessarily extended the supply chain and used those practices to push prices higher, contributing to what authorities described as excessive pricing.
After police questioning, prosecutors referred the suspects to court and requested their detention pending trial. The court ordered the arrest of all 40 suspects.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Turkey Accounts for 41% of Pending European Human Rights Cases
Applications concerning Turkey accounted for 41% of all cases pending before the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) at the end of August, according to the court's latest statistics.
The Strasbourg-based court had 58,100 applications pending as of August 31, including 23,850 concerning Turkey.
Turkey's pending caseload has also risen sharply this year. The court had 18,450 applications concerning Turkey pending at the start of 2026, meaning the caseload increased by 5,400, or about 29%, during the first eight months of the year.
Turkish Court Arrests Journalist Tugba Tekerek as Part of “My Family Is Safe” Operations
Turkish authorities have launched legal proceedings against 162 individuals, nine associations and 13 businesses as part of the “My Family Is Safe” operations, which began on September 13 across five provinces.
Authorities detained 21 people in an operation targeting the Kaos GL Association in Ankara, while police detained 18 people in a separate operation in Izmir. Prosecutors formally arrested 16 of those detained in Izmir. Authorities also arrested five people during the initial phase of the Ankara operation.
Later, a court ordered journalist Tugba Tekerek and seven full members of the Kaos GL’s executive and supervisory boards to remain in custody pending trial. Authorities detained Tekerek over news coverage she produced while reporting on elections in Georgia.
The court released seven alternate board members under judicial control measures.
Turkish Courts Order Blocking of Rights Groups, Journalists and Academics on X, Instagram
Turkish courts have ordered the blocking of dozens of X and Instagram accounts belonging to rights groups, journalists and academics, citing national security and public order amid a widening wave of online censorship.
The Bakirkoy 4th Criminal Court of Peace and the Mersin 3rd Criminal Court of Peace issued the orders under Article 8/A of Turkey’s Internet Law No. 5651, according to the Freedom of Expression Association.
The orders cover accounts belonging to Amnesty International’s Turkey branch, left-wing Evrensel newspaper, the Media and Law Studies Association (MLSA), a nonprofit organization that defends freedom of expression and journalists’ rights, and Academics for Peace.
Council of Europe Urges Turkey to Release Demirtas and Yuksekdag
The Council of Europe’s Committee of Ministers has urged Turkey to immediately release jailed Kurdish politicians Selahattin Demirtas and Figen Yuksekdag.
The committee adopted the decision during a human rights meeting in Strasbourg on September 15 and 16, urging the Turkish government and courts to use all available means to secure the release of the two former opposition leaders. The committee will review the release issue of Demirtas and Yuksekdag in December.
The committee also called on Turkey to safeguard political speech by opposition politicians and provide information on requests to lift lawmakers’ parliamentary immunity.
Turkey Detains 21 in Izmir Probe Targeting Alleged Gulen Movement Links
Turkish authorities detained 21 people in the western province of Izmir on September 18 as part of an investigation into individuals accused of links to the Gulen movement and providing humanitarian assistance to people in need.
The Izmir Chief Public Prosecutor's Office issued detention warrants for 27 people. One of those named in the warrants was reportedly already in prison. Authorities also targeted elderly people in the operation. Footage from the raids showed an elderly man being taken into custody.
Authorities were still processing the 21 detainees at gendarmerie facilities, according to the latest reports.
FOREIGN POLICY
Erdogan Heads to New York to Attend UN General Assembly
President Erdogan departed for New York on September 20 to attend the 81st session of the United Nations General Assembly, accompanied by his wife, Emine Erdogan, and a large delegation of ministers and senior officials.
Erdogan will address the General Assembly on September 22, the opening day of the high-level general debate, Communications Director Burhanettin Duran said. During his visit, Erdogan is also expected to meet with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and other heads of state and government for bilateral talks.
He is also scheduled to attend events with representatives of Turkish citizens living in the United States, Turkish-American business groups and think tanks.
Fidan Says Turkey Could Meet Saudi Military Needs Under Mecca Alliance
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on September 19 that Turkey could respond to Saudi Arabia's military needs under the Mecca Alliance, as the kingdom faces security concerns following an alleged Houthi drone attack near Mecca.
"We are closely monitoring the attacks as the Mecca Alliance. Saudi Arabia may have military needs, particularly regarding certain technical matters," Fidan said when asked whether the alliance would be activated.
Saudi Arabia said it intercepted a Houthi drone heading toward Mecca on the evening of September 15. The Houthis denied targeting the city and rejected the Saudi allegation as false.
The Turkish Foreign Ministry condemned the alleged attack on September 16 and expressed support for Saudi Arabia's sovereignty, territorial integrity and security. The ministry also called for an immediate halt to attacks threatening regional stability and urged restraint to prevent further escalation.
President Erdogan, responding to questions during an Al Jazeera broadcast, said the three countries would have the opportunity to defend one another if any of them came under attack, citing the joint defense pact.
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed the pact on August 7. The pact treats an armed attack on one member as an attack on all three.
A senior Turkish official told Middle East Eye that the pact's defense commitments had not yet entered into legal force and that Turkey might submit the agreement to parliament in October.
Turkey Proposes Russia-Ukraine Deal to Halt Black Sea Attacks on Civilian Ships
Turkey has submitted a proposal to Russia and Ukraine aimed at ending attacks on civilian ships in the Black Sea, a Turkish diplomat told Agence France-Presse on September 17, as attacks on commercial shipping in the region have increased sharply.
"We have shared the text of a memorandum, a draft text, with the Russians and the Ukrainians to come up with a solution to those strikes taking place in the Black Sea," the diplomat said.
The official said Turkey based the new proposal on the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which Turkey and the United Nations brokered in 2022 to facilitate the safe export of grain through the Black Sea.
Mali's Azawad Separatists Seek Dialogue with Turkey
The Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) in Mali has disclosed direct contacts with Russia's Africa Corps and called for dialogue with Turkey to help find a political solution to the country's crisis.
In an exclusive interview with Middle East Eye, FLA spokesperson Mohamed Elmaouloud Ramadane said the Tuareg separatist group wanted to engage with Ankara. "Turkey has significantly expanded its ties with the military junta in Bamako, particularly through drone sales," Ramadane said, alleging that Turkish-made aircraft had caused civilian deaths in Azawad.
Ramadane said the FLA wanted direct channels to Ankara and President Tayyip Erdogan so it could explain its position, rather than communicate only through the Turkish military. "We are not asking Turkey to choose between Mali and Azawad," Ramadane said. "We are asking Turkey to help ensure that peace is negotiated with Azawad rather than imposed on it."
A Turkish official familiar with African affairs told MEE that Ankara remained open to dialogue with a range of actors and could establish communication channels if the FLA sought talks with the Turkish government. The official added, however, that dialogue would not mean Turkey would take the FLA's side or become involved in Mali's internal conflict.
Libya Arrests Two Pilots Accused of Flying Turkey-Based Jet While Drunk
Libyan prosecutors have ordered the arrest of two pilots accused of flying a Turkey-based private jet while drunk before the aircraft veered off the runway and caught fire at Misrata airport, private television channel Al Ahrar reported.
The crash occurred during landing on September 14 and reportedly caused no casualties. Prosecutors said investigators found evidence that the pilots flew the aircraft while drunk and ordered their detention pending the investigation.
The prosecution did not identify the pilots. The captain is a German national, while the copilot is Turkish. A Turkish flight attendant was the only other person on board.
Al Ahrar reported that a Turkey-based company operated the private jet but did not name it.
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