ANALYSIS
"Game of Thrones in Ankara" by Hasim Tekines, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
Erdoğan has mastered the art of keeping allies in competition, but his health imposes a deadline. If no figure emerges who can command the bureaucracy, manage politics, and still win elections, the system risks serious instability once Erdoğan exits the stage.
For now, Erdoğan still benefits from factional rivalries within his party and among the opposition. But the uncertainty over succession leaves the regime fragile. The final years of Erdoğan’s rule may be shaped not only by his confrontations with the opposition, but also by a cutthroat competition over who inherits his throne.
"U.S.-Turkish Relations Have Gotten Duller, Not Better" by Dimitar Bechev, Foreign Policy
The reality is that the problems in U.S.-Turkish relations are baked in, and the opportunities for breakthroughs are small. Moreover, the stakes aren’t that high anymore, and U.S.-Turkish relations are a much duller affair than they were during Trump’s first term. As a result, both sides are happy to enjoy a photo op and pocket what wins they can.
The United States and Turkey don’t need each other as much as they did in the past. Ankara does not need U.S. support against Russia the way that it did in the Cold War. Nor is Washington counting on Turkey to contain Russia or to serve as a partner in the Middle East. Trump may want Turkey’s support to realize some of his (ever-changing) objectives in the region, but he has plenty of other partners in the neighborhood. As a result, both parties can live with ambiguity, work together when interests overlap, and agree to disagree where they don’t.
"Turkey, Iran and the contest for Central Asia" by Giorgio Cafiero, Amwaj.media
Compared to a heightened US or European footprint—Iran, Russia and China are relatively amenable to Turkey’s expanding role in Central Asia. “Turkey offers NATO-adjacent corridors that support US diversification goals. Iran aligns more with Russia and China, sharing Moscow’s aim of limiting US and NATO influence. Both tolerate Turkey’s role so long as it avoids their red lines,” Aigerim Turgunbaeva, a Bishkek-based journalist, explained to Amwaj.media.
Looking ahead, Turkey-Iran competition in Central Asia is likely to remain managed, punctuated by moments of pragmatic cooperation—evident, for example, in trade routes linking Turkey to China via Iran and Central Asia. While Ankara seeks to keep the region ideologically and politically distanced from Tehran, it can be relatively confident in maintaining an advantage.
POLITICS
PKK Leader Ocalan Calls for Legal Steps to Support Turkey’s Peace Efforts
Abdullah Ocalan, the imprisoned leader of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), told a visiting delegation on October 3 that taking the necessary legal steps is crucial for the success of Turkey’s ongoing peace efforts, according to a statement by the pro-Kurdish Democracy and Equality Party (DEM Party).
The DEM Party delegation included Deputy Speaker of Parliament Pervin Buldan, lawmaker Mithat Sancar, and lawyer Faik Ozgur Erol. They visited Imrali as part of the National Solidarity, Brotherhood and Democracy Commission, a parliamentary body established in August to support the government’s peace initiative.
Ocalan emphasized to the delegation that it is “extremely important” to identify and implement legal requirements “with a correct and comprehensive perspective.” He added that the second century of the Turkish Republic should be built on “peace and democratic law”.
Turkey Opens New Legislative Year Amid Opposition Boycott
Turkey opened its new legislative year on October 1, with the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) and two other opposition parties boycotting the parliamentary session, which featured a speech by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Lawmakers from the Good Party and the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) stood as the president entered but refrained from applauding, unlike members of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and its far-right ally, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), who both stood and clapped. The CHP benches remained empty, while the Workers’ Party of Turkey (TIP) and the Labor Party (EMEP) also boycotted the session.
Erdogan addressed parliament, announcing plans for a broad transformation across industry, technology, agriculture, and energy. He reiterated that combating the high cost of living remains a government priority, with inflation targets set to be below 30 per cent by the end of 2025 and below 20 per cent in 2026.
Part of his speech focused on national security. Erdogan thanked Bahceli and the DEM Party for supporting renewed peace efforts to end Turkey’s armed conflict with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). He also praised the cross-party “National Solidarity, Brotherhood and Democracy” commission.
Istanbul Court Adjourns CHP Provincial Congress Case to November 21
On October 3, an Istanbul court adjourned the case concerning the CHP Provincial Congress to November 21. The court ruled that Gursel Tekin and his delegation would remain in their positions. It also rejected a request to recuse the presiding judge.
Earlier in September, the court had temporarily suspended the CHP’s Istanbul provincial administration. Ozgur Celik, who was dismissed by court order on September 2, was later re-elected as the CHP’s Istanbul Provincial Chair on September 24.
Man Assaulted CHP Leader Released After One-Year Sentence
An Istanbul court on September 29 ordered the release of a man who physically assaulted Ozgur Ozel, leader of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), during a memorial ceremony earlier this year, after sentencing him to one year in prison.
Selcuk Tengioglu, 66, slapped Ozel in the face on May 4 as he was leaving a memorial ceremony at Istanbul’s Ataturk Cultural Center, held ahead of the funeral of prominent politician Sirri Sureyya Onder.
The court sentenced him to 12 months in prison but ordered his release, taking into account the time he had already spent in pretrial detention.
ECONOMY
Turkey’s Official Annual Inflation Rises for First Time in Over a Year
Turkey’s official annual inflation rate increased in September, ending a 16-month “disinflation” trend, official data showed on October 3.
The Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) reported that annual inflation rose to 33.29% in September, up from 32.95% in August. Consumer prices rose 3.23 per cent month-on-month, driven primarily by higher costs for food, housing, and education.
Independent analysts, however, argue that the real inflation rate is significantly higher. The Inflation Research Group (ENAG), a team of Turkish academics, reported a 3.79 per cent monthly increase and an annual inflation rate of 63.23%.
Cost of Living in Turkey Soars as Living Expenses Quadruple Minimum Wage
A family of four in Turkey now needs 91,109 lira ($2,192) per month to cover basic living expenses — including food, housing, transportation, education, and healthcare — more than four times the country’s official minimum wage, according to data from the Confederation of Turkish Trade Unions (TURK-IS).
The confederation reported that the “hunger threshold,” or the minimum monthly food cost for a family to maintain a healthy and balanced diet, rose to 27,970 lira ($673) in September — surpassing the minimum wage for the first time by 21 per cent.
TURK-IS also estimated the monthly cost of living for a single worker at 36,305 lira ($873), leaving a gap of 14,201 lira ($342) compared to the minimum wage of 22,104 lira ($531).
The confederation noted that annual “kitchen inflation,” or food price increases, reached 41.05 per cent, with prices rising 32.67 per cent in the first nine months of 2025 alone.
Gazprom: Higher Sales to China and Turkey Offset Loss of Ukraine Pipeline Flows
Russia’s Gazprom stated that increased gas sales to China and Turkey in early 2025 helped offset the loss of pipeline flows across Ukraine, which ceased on January 1, the Upstream news website reported.
Exports to China through the Power of Siberia pipeline rose toward the line’s contracted annual volume of 38 bcm. Meanwhile, Turkey’s imports from Russia reached about 11 bcm between January and June via the Blue Stream and TurkStream pipelines — a 28 per cent year-on-year increase, according to Turkish regulator data compiled by the TASS state news agency.
Turkey recently signed a 20-year LNG supply deal with Mercuria and announced separate LNG agreements with Cheniere and ExxonMobil.
During his meeting with President Erdogan at the White House last month, US President Donald Trump also reportedly asked Turkey to reduce its purchases of Russian energy.
Turkey Considers Trilateral Partnership with US and South Korea for Second Nuclear Plant
Turkey may partner with the United States and South Korea to build its second planned nuclear power plant under a “trilateral model,” Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said in a televised interview on October 2.
Bayraktar noted that earlier talks with China had been broadened to include “America and Korea,” creating the possibility of a three-way partnership between Turkey, the US, and South Korea for the project.
His remarks came a week after Turkey and the United States signed a memorandum of understanding on September 25 to strengthen strategic civil nuclear cooperation.
Turkey and UAE Sign Currency Swap Agreement to Boost Local Transactions
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) signed a bilateral currency swap agreement with the Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE), covering 198 billion lira and 18 billion dirhams. The two countries also inked two additional memorandums of understanding.
The CBRT said the swap agreement aims to establish a local currency swap mechanism and expand the use of both currencies in transactions across current and capital accounts.
The memorandums of understanding are designed to facilitate cross-border payments and support the use of local payment cards. The initiative also seeks to enhance the efficiency of cross-border financial transactions by integrating Turkey’s FAST system with the UAE’s instant payment platform, Aani.
Turkey Aims for Manageable Fine in Halkbank Sanctions Case
Turkey expects to resolve a long-standing dispute with the US over sanctions-busting allegations against state lender Turkiye Halk Bankasi AS through a manageable fine, a source familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. The source, speaking anonymously due to the sensitivity of the issue, said President Erdogan discussed the case with US President Trump at the White House last month.
A settlement would enable Halkbank to avoid a protracted legal battle that could result in substantial fines and restricted access to the US financial system.
Turkey Freezes Assets Linked to Iran’s Nuclear Program
Turkey froze the assets of individuals and entities connected to Iran’s nuclear program on October 1, according to a presidential decree published in the Official Gazette.
The list includes Iranian state organizations, such as the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, as well as senior officials linked to uranium enrichment.
The sanctions announcement came as the U.S. Supreme Court considers whether to hear Halkbank’s final appeal in a case over alleged sanctions violations between 2012 and 2016.
Turkish Court Orders Arrest of Atilla Ciner and Ciner Glass CEO in Money-Laundering Probe
A Turkish court has ordered the arrest of businessman Atilla Ciner, son of former media mogul Turgay Ciner, and Ciner Glass CEO Gokhan Sen as part of a widening money-laundering investigation.
The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office said the two men were jailed pending trial several days after being taken into custody. Prosecutors cited suspicions of money laundering linked to Can Holding’s 2024 acquisition of several Ciner-owned media outlets, the conglomerate at the center of the probe.
Earlier this week, authorities issued an arrest warrant for Turgay Ciner, who is currently residing abroad.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Turkey’s Prisons Overcrowded as Inmate Numbers Exceed Capacity by Over 100,000
Data from the Ministry of Justice revealed that Turkey’s prisons have far exceeded their official capacity. Facilities designed to hold 304,964 inmates now house 413,780 prisoners and convicts.
Reports by the Turkish Human Rights and Equality Institution (TIHEK) also found that some prisons operate at nearly three times their intended capacity.
According to the Council of Europe’s 2024 Criminal Statistics report, Turkey ranks first among member states, with 356 prisoners per 100,000 people.
SDIF Now Oversees 1,050 Companies Across Multiple Sectors in Turkey
The Savings Deposit Insurance Fund (SDIF), Turkey’s state body responsible for managing confiscated assets, now oversees 1,050 companies across hundreds of sectors, including banks, furniture, football clubs, and energy companies. Recent operations led to the appointment of trustees to Can Holding and Ciner Group companies, pushing the total number of firms under SDIF management to 1,050.
In September 2024, SDIF managed 699 companies, marking an increase of 351 firms in just one year. According to its June 2025 balance sheet, SDIF holds assets totaling 488.2 billion lira.
Turkey Detains 91 in Nationwide Crackdown on Gulen Movement
As part of an operation targeting the allegedly secret military structure of the Gulen movement, authorities carried out raids across 16 provinces centered in Izmir on September 30. Detention warrants were issued for 42 suspects, and 35 were taken into custody.
Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya announced on October 3 that a total of 91 people have been detained and 64 arrested in the ongoing crackdown. He said on X that police conducted operations across 30 provinces, including Istanbul, Izmir, Trabzon, and Bursa.
DEM Party Urges Release of Kurdish Politicians in Kobani Case
Turkey’s pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) has called on the government to immediately release prominent Kurdish politicians Selahattin Demirtas and Figen Yuksekdag, along with others jailed in the high-profile Kobani case.
In a statement on October 3, the DEM Party’s Law and Human Rights Commission referred to the Committee of Ministers’ decision dated September 17, 2025, which reaffirmed the ECtHR’s binding judgment. The committee reminded Ankara that Demirtas’s prolonged detention aimed to suppress political pluralism and limit democratic debate, particularly in the lead-up to elections. It urged Turkish authorities to take concrete steps to strengthen freedom of expression and political participation.
The DEM Party also described the Kobani trial, involving more than a dozen former HDP officials, as “baseless” and demanded the immediate release of all detainees.
Istanbul Court Orders Rearrest of Celebrity Manager Ayse Barim Two Days After Release
Less than 48 hours after her release, an Istanbul court has ordered the rearrest of Ayse Barim, a well-known manager of Turkish television stars.
Barim was freed on October 1 after spending 248 days in pretrial detention. The Istanbul 26th High Criminal Court rejected the prosecutor’s initial appeal against her release. However, a subsequent appeal to the Istanbul 27th High Criminal Court resulted in an order for her rearrest.
At the time of the ruling, Barim was reportedly hospitalised after collapsing at home. She suffers from a brain aneurysm and heart problems.
FOREIGN POLICY
Turkey Welcomes Hamas Response to Trump Ceasefire Plan
The Turkish Foreign Ministry issued a statement on October 3 welcoming Hamas’s response to US President Donald Trump’s ceasefire plan, saying it created “an opportunity for the immediate establishment of a ceasefire in Gaza” and the “uninterrupted delivery of humanitarian aid.”
The ministry also called on Israel to “immediately cease its attacks against the people of Gaza” and urged negotiations aimed at securing a truce and paving the way for a two-state solution.
Turkey Accuses Israel of ‘Act of Terrorism’ Over Interception of Gaza-Bound Flotilla
Turkey’s Foreign Ministry on October 1 accused Israel of committing “an act of terrorism” by intercepting an activist flotilla carrying humanitarian aid to Gaza.
“The attack by Israeli forces in international waters against the Global Sumud flotilla, which was delivering humanitarian aid to the people of Gaza, is an act of terrorism that constitutes a grave violation of international law and endangers the lives of innocent civilians,” the ministry said in a statement.
The Israeli navy intercepted the flotilla after warning it not to enter waters under its blockade. The Turkish delegation aboard the flotilla said that 37 Turkish activists were among those detained by Israel.
The Istanbul Chief Prosecutor’s Office announced that it had launched an investigation into the detention of Turkish citizens travelling with the flotilla. “The probe concerns Turkish citizens detained following the attack carried out by elements of the Israeli navy in international waters against the Global Sumud flotilla,” the office said in a statement.
A total of 137 people, including 36 Turkish citizens, arrived in Istanbul on a Turkish Airlines plane arranged for their transfer on October 2. The Turkish activists were subsequently questioned by the Istanbul Chief Prosecutor’s Office.
Turkey Detains Lawyer and Private Detective over Alleged Mossad Links
Security forces on October 3 detained a lawyer and a private detective accused of providing information to operatives working for Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency, the state-run Anadolu news agency reported.
The National Intelligence Organization (MIT), the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office, and the city’s counterterrorism police conducted the coordinated operation. Searches were conducted at three addresses associated with Cicek, including a law office.
Lawyer Tugrulhan Dip and private detective Serkan Cicek were taken into custody as part of a probe authorities have code-named “Metron Activity.”
According to Anadolu, Cicek admitted to conducting surveillance in Istanbul on a Palestinian activist under the direction of Faysal Rasheed, whom Turkish officials identified as a member of an Israeli online operations unit. Faysal allegedly paid Cicek $4,000 in cryptocurrency for several surveillance tasks.
Turkish Airlines Plans Direct Flights to Armenia
Turkey’s flagship carrier, Turkish Airlines, plans to launch direct flights to Armenia, Bloomberg reported. The majority state-owned airline announced in a filing on September 30 that it intends to begin scheduled service to Yerevan, depending on passenger demand.
The move comes as Ankara and Yerevan work to rebuild ties, following a US-brokered peace deal between Armenia and Turkey’s ally, Azerbaijan.
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