"Wars Within Wars in the Middle East and Turkey's Choice" by Mustafa Enes Esen, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
Turkey has no strategic reason to intervene in Yemen. As long as freedom of navigation is secured, its principal interest lies in the oil trade through the Red Sea, not in who governs Sanaa. Nonetheless, Turkey could still be tempted to get involved by a desire to play a larger role in the Red Sea and the Gulf, and to protect its investments in the Horn of Africa, particularly in Somalia.
The wars in Yemen and Iran carry high risk and offer little reward for Turkey. Yet the calculation could change under specific conditions. Turkey would need either a very large coalition, on the model of the 1991 Gulf War, in which its contribution would be one part of a much larger whole, or a financial reward from the Saudis commensurate with the risk.
Restraint appears to serve Turkey better than intervention in a war it can do little to shape. Ankara would be well advised to stay out.
"Beyond shared identity: Military cooperation across the Turkic states" by Dr Umud Shokri, Middle East Monitor
Azerbaijan and Türkiye have a formal alliance, and Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan have signed their own treaty on allied relations. Exercises involving several states show that cooperation can reach beyond those bilateral ties. Taken together, these developments point to an increasingly active regional security network.
But the network should not be mistaken for a mutual-defense organization. The evidence presented here does not show that Azerbaijan, Türkiye, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan have created a common command, agreed on a shared military doctrine or made a collective commitment to respond to an attack on any one of them. Those are substantially deeper steps than holding joint drills or signing bilateral agreements.
Turkey Freezes Assets of Former AK Party Deputy Chair After Fund Crisis Allegations
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on September 29 said his ruling party would distance itself from members who made mistakes, days after AK Party Deputy Chairperson Fatma Betul Sayan Kaya resigned following allegations that she profited from Turkey’s investment fund crisis.
Speaking after a meeting on the crisis, Erdogan did not directly name Kaya but said, “We part ways with those who make mistakes and continue on our path. We move forward by renewing and refreshing ourselves.”
Erdogan said officials had clarified the steps needed to address the crisis and established a roadmap during the meeting. He also announced the formation of a board to oversee the liquidation of the funds and said he had tasked the State Supervisory Council with examining the matter.
Kaya and her husband, Ilyas Kaya, transferred about 2.2 billion lira to an account held by the Treasury and Finance Ministry, the Ekonomim news website reported on September 29.
Later that day, Turkish prosecutors moved to freeze the assets of Kaya and her husband. The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office announced that it notified the relevant institutions of its decision to freeze all assets belonging to the couple.
A Turkish court jailed 20 more suspects in the investigation into the country’s investment fund crisis, bringing the total number of people jailed in related market investigations to 85. The suspects appeared at Istanbul’s Caglayan Courthouse on the evening of October 2, after which prosecutors requested their pretrial detention following questioning.
Turkey Opposition Leader Accuses Ministers of Profiting From Fund Scandal, Calls for Election
Main opposition New Party leader Ozgur Ozel alleged that cabinet ministers used intermediaries and offshore accounts to profit from Turkey’s fund scandal, calling for investigators to trace transactions conducted through third parties.
Speaking at a meeting with his party’s lawmakers in Ankara, Ozel accused ministers of routing transactions through proxies using offshore accounts in Luxembourg, banks in the Netherlands and financial institutions in some island countries.
Ozel did not identify the ministers he accused or present transaction records supporting the allegations during his speech. He called on investigators to identify the people behind trades conducted through intermediaries and track money transferred abroad through cryptocurrency wallets.
Ozel also linked the scandal to officials appointed by President Erdogan, arguing that former government officials and presidential appointees working at investment companies had ties to the administration. “They are all on Erdogan’s team,” Ozel said. He accused the governing Justice and Development Party (AK Party) of withholding information about people who allegedly benefited from transactions related to the fund crisis.
On October 1, Ozel called on Erdogan to resign or call an election, arguing that the alleged fraud either took place under the president’s patronage or exposed his inability to prevent it if he had been unaware of the activity.
“The first requires his immediate resignation, and the second requires an immediate election and handing the job to those qualified,” Ozel said.
Prosecutors Detain More Opposition Municipal Officials in Expanding Corruption Probes
Mersin Mayor Vahap Secer, a member of the Republican People's Party (CHP) and president of the Union of Municipalities of Turkey, was among 59 people detained on October 1 in a corruption investigation involving public procurement at three municipalities in the southern province of Mersin.
Yenişehir Mayor Abdullah Ozyigit and Mezitli Mayor Ahmet Serkan Tuncer were also among those detained.
The investigation into Mersin Metropolitan Municipality covers 13 tenders and 63 direct procurement transactions that allegedly caused a public loss of about 331 million lira. Separate investigations into the Mezitli and Yenisehir municipalities identified alleged losses of about 1.01 billion lira and 105 million lira, respectively, bringing the total alleged losses under investigation to roughly 1.45 billion lira.
In a statement posted on X, CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu criticized what he described as unequal treatment of opposition figures, saying people close to the ruling government enjoyed immunity while opposition figures faced early-morning detentions.
"The issue is no longer just about the CHP or Vahap Secer," Kilicdaroglu said, adding that "this is now a matter of Turkey's survival." He said Turkey "cannot be governed this way."
New Party leader Ozgur Ozel also questioned the timing of the operation, arguing that it was intended to divert attention from the fund crisis.
A day later, Eyupsultan Mayor Mithat Bulent Ozmen, another CHP mayor, was among 28 suspects detained in a separate investigation overseen by the Ankara Chief Public Prosecutor's Office.
In another case, police detained Ataşehir acting mayor Murat Gunes and 12 others on October 3 in a bribery investigation, five months after Gunes replaced the Istanbul district's jailed elected mayor. Current and former deputy mayors were among those detained.
The Istanbul Anatolian Chief Public Prosecutor's Office said the investigation concerned allegations that municipal officials demanded bribes from construction companies in exchange for zoning changes and occupancy permits.
Turkey to Begin Interim Payments to Investors in Funds Under Liquidation
Turkey has established a fund coordination council chaired by the vice president to oversee the rapid liquidation of investment funds and protect investors following a recent financial crisis, the presidency announced on September 29.
Turkey's Capital Markets Board (SPK) also said on October 1 it would begin making interim payments to investors in more than 100 funds with combined assets of $20 billion that authorities ordered to liquidate this month.
Under the procedure, investors in asset managers Tera Portfoy, Pusula Portfoy, Atlas Portfoy and Hedef Portfoy will receive their full net investment amount if it falls below 1 million lira, according to a bulletin the regulator published overnight. Investors with net investments of 1 million lira or more will receive an interim payment of 1 million lira. The SPK said the payments would begin with money market funds.
In a separate statement, the regulator said the Savings Deposit Insurance Fund (TMSF) had opened "voluntary refund accounts" for investors seeking to return "excessive gains" from fund sales conducted before the liquidation orders.
Under Turkish law, individuals convicted of financial manipulation may qualify for a pardon or reduced sentences if they demonstrate remorse by paying the Treasury twice the amount of the financial benefit they obtained.
Turkey Falls Short on Most GRECO Anti-Corruption Recommendations
The Council of Europe’s Group of States against Corruption (GRECO) announced on September 29 that Turkey had fully implemented only six of 22 recommendations concerning parliamentarians, judges and prosecutors, while nine remained partially implemented and seven had not been implemented.
In a follow-up report, GRECO said Turkey had also fully implemented four of 32 recommendations concerning central government and law enforcement authorities. Seven recommendations were partially implemented, while 21 remained unimplemented.
Turkey remains subject to GRECO’s compliance procedures and must report on further progress in 2027.
Turkey Blocks at Least 1,270 X Accounts in September Amid Financial Crisis Censorship
Turkey blocked access to at least 147 additional X accounts that shared content about the country's financial crisis, internet censorship monitoring initiative EngelliWeb said on September 30.
EngelliWeb, a project of the Freedom of Expression Association, said the affected accounts belonged to finance and capital markets professionals, economists, academics, technical analysts, traders, investors and lawyers. Together, the accounts had about 2.65 million followers.
X also blocked EngelliWeb's own account in Turkey on October 1, making it inaccessible to users inside the country. The platform did not tell the organization why it imposed the restriction, EngelliWeb said.
EngelliWeb said account blocking reached an unprecedented scale in September, describing the surge as a "tsunami." The organization identified at least 1,270 X accounts that Turkey blocked during the month, while X made 90% of them inaccessible from within Turkey.
The 1,227 accounts for which follower data remained available had more than 35 million followers combined, EngelliWeb said. The group said 362 accounts had more than 10,000 followers, 70 had more than 100,000 and 10 had more than 500,000.
According to EngelliWeb, authorities neither publicly disclosed the blocking orders nor formally notified the affected account holders. The organization said they have only nine court decisions and one formal request letter concerning September restrictions, but those documents identified the specific grounds for blocking only 115 of the 1,270 accounts. The reasons behind the remaining 1,155 blocking decisions remain unknown, it said.
ECtHR Finds Rights Violations in 947 More Terrorism Conviction Cases
The European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) found violations of fundamental rights in another 947 cases involving terrorism convictions in Turkey following the July 2016 coup attempt. The latest judgments bring the total number of violations found in similar applications to 4,500 since the court's Grand Chamber issued its landmark Yuksel Yalcinkaya judgment.
In three separate unanimous rulings, the court found violations of the right to a fair trial and/or the principle of legality in criminal law, which requires crimes and penalties to have a clear legal basis.
Meanwhile, the ECtHR faces a growing backlog of applications from people dismissed from their professions under statutory decrees following the failed coup attempt. On September 28, ECtHR President Mattias Guyomar said the court had received 12,000 new applications over the past year concerning dismissals from public service under emergency decrees in Turkey.
The court has registered 7,000 of those applications, while the remaining 5,000 await registration. Guyomar said the court had activated special case-processing mechanisms to manage the volume of applications.
Turkey Blocks T24 News Website in LGBTQ+ Crackdown
A Turkish journalist whose articles featured among the grounds for blocking the independent news outlet T24 said the decision effectively criminalized objective reporting on LGBTQ+ people.
A court ordered the blocking of T24's website and social media accounts after authorities accused the outlet of publishing 118 pieces of content over the past year that allegedly constituted "LGBT propaganda." The ruling came as part of the "My Family is Safe" investigation, an expanding crackdown targeting LGBTQ+ groups that the government says aims to protect children and family values.
T24's lawyers planned to appeal the ruling on October 1, editor-in-chief Candan Yildiz said. "Journalism cannot be shut down. We are doing our jobs," Yildiz said.
The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe said arrests, raids and digital restrictions formed part of a coordinated and escalating campaign against LGBTQ+ people and human rights defenders. On October 1, it adopted a resolution urging Turkey to immediately release people detained over their human rights work and refrain from introducing anti-LGBTQ+ legislation.
Police Detain 20 in Operation Over Alleged Gulen Links
Turkish police detained 20 people on September 29 in simultaneous raids across six provinces over alleged links to the Gulen movement. The Istanbul-centered operation targeted suspects in Istanbul, Izmir, Kocaeli, Gaziantep, Kayseri and Kirikkale.
Those detained included five serving public officials, four former public officials who lost their jobs over alleged links to the Gulen movement, and 11 other suspects.
Turkey Arrests Journalist Under Disinformation Law Over Kozinoglu Post
An Istanbul court has arrested another journalist under Turkey’s controversial disinformation law over a social media post concerning a reopened investigation into the 2011 death in custody of former Turkish intelligence operative Kasif Kozinoglu.
Fatih Ergin, news coordinator for the Nefes daily, was taken into custody in Istanbul on September 27 and arrested the following day on suspicion of “publicly spreading disinformation”.
Reuters: Syrian Officials, Hezbollah Held Secret Talks in Turkey to Ease Tensions
Representatives of the Syrian government and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah held face-to-face talks in Turkey last month to ease tensions between the longtime adversaries, Reuters reported, citing six sources familiar with the meeting.
The sources, including two Syrian officials, a US official and a senior Lebanese security source close to Hezbollah, told Reuters that the Iran-aligned group and Syrian officials met secretly at least once in September.
Three sources said Turkey pushed for the meeting because Ankara wanted to play a direct role in de-escalating tensions.
The six sources said Hezbollah representatives met Syrian intelligence and Foreign Ministry officials at the invitation of Turkish security and intelligence agencies. The meeting aimed to reduce tensions between the two sides.
Reuters said it could not independently confirm the meeting's location in Turkey, its duration or whether the parties held additional meetings before or after September.
After publishing the report, the Syrian government's English-language account on X denied that the meeting took place, stating that "these claims are false."
The Turkish Presidency's Directorate of Communications also rejected the report, calling the claim that Syrian government and Hezbollah officials met in Turkey "entirely unfounded." "The claims in these posts regarding the date, venue, content and contacts do not reflect any reality and are entirely fabricated and speculative," the directorate said in a statement on X.
Turkey's Fidan Meets UAE President After Netanyahu Visit
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met United Arab Emirates President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Abu Dhabi on September 28, a day after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the Gulf state and met with Sheikh Mohamed.
Fidan traveled to Abu Dhabi after attending events linked to the United Nations General Assembly in New York. He also held meetings with UAE Vice President Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan and National Security Adviser Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
“It was an extremely productive visit in terms of addressing relations between our countries and evaluating the problems facing our region,” Fidan said in a post on X.
The UAE presidency said Fidan and Sheikh Mohamed discussed bilateral cooperation, developments in the Middle East and efforts to promote security, stability and lasting peace.
The UAE confirmed Netanyahu's visit on September 28. Netanyahu's office said he traveled to Abu Dhabi at Sheikh Mohamed's invitation to discuss bilateral relations and regional challenges, while three senior Israeli officials told Reuters that the six-hour meeting focused on Iran.
US Sanctions Iran's Auto Giants and Turkish Supplier Over Links to Military
The Trump administration imposed sanctions on Iran's railway and automotive sectors and their foreign suppliers, the US Treasury Department said on October 1.
The sanctions target Iran Khodro Company (IKCO) and SAIPA Iranian Automobile Manufacturing Company (SAIPA), which together account for more than 90% of Iran's domestic automotive market, the Treasury said. The measures also target foreign companies in Indonesia, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey that supply Iran's automotive industry.
Among the targets, Istanbul-based Troy Trading Arac Parcalari Sanayi Ve Ticaret Limited Sirketi supplied truck parts to Bahman Diesel Co., a subsidiary of sanctioned Iranian automaker Bahman Group, according to the Treasury. Bahman Diesel manufactures heavy trucks and other commercial vehicles for Iran's armed forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its unmanned aerial vehicle and missile divisions, the department said.
Kremlin Says Work Under Way on Possible Transfer of Turkey's S-400s
The Kremlin said on September 30 that work was under way and contacts were taking place over the possible transfer of Turkey's Russian-made S-400 air defense systems to another country.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the issue was on the agenda when asked about relocating the systems from Turkey to a country friendly to Russia. “Relevant work is being done, and appropriate contacts are taking place,” Peskov said.
His comments came days after Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Moscow could approve the transfer if the recipient country maintained friendly relations with Russia and assumed responsibility for maintaining the systems.
Separately, US President Donald Trump said on October 2 that he would make President Recep Tayyip Erdogan “happy” when asked whether Washington would lift sanctions on Turkey, but he announced no decision or timetable.
Responding to a reporter’s question about why the sanctions remained in place, Trump described Erdogan as a friend and said, “I’ll always make him happy.”
Turkey, UN Plan Russia-Ukraine Talks on Black Sea Ceasefire
Turkey and the United Nations have arranged new talks between Russia and Ukraine in early October to discuss a ceasefire in the Black Sea, a senior diplomat told Bloomberg. Envoys from the Center for Humanitarian Dialogue, a Swiss nongovernmental organization, will mediate the discussions, the diplomat said.
The effort began with a closed-door meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in late September. Participants discussed a "narrowly defined and reciprocal arrangement" to ensure the free movement of commercial shipping and protect ports and energy infrastructure, according to a document Bloomberg reviewed.
The upcoming talks are expected to prioritize the concerns of countries affected by rising food prices.
Carney Plans First Dedicated Bilateral Visit to Turkey
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney plans to visit Turkey this month for talks with President Erdogan, marking the first dedicated bilateral visit to the country by a Canadian leader, Reuters reported, citing four sources familiar with the plans.
Carney and Erdogan could discuss free-trade negotiations launched on the sidelines of a NATO summit in Ankara in July, along with potential cooperation in energy and defense, one source said. Canadian and Turkish trade ministers agreed this week to accelerate the negotiations ahead of the leaders' meeting, two sources added.
During the July NATO summit, Carney and Erdogan formally launched negotiations for a free-trade agreement. Turkey also agreed to join Canada's Defence Security and Resilience Bank as one of 10 founding members of the multilateral institution Carney has proposed to strengthen cooperation among middle powers.
The sources did not disclose the dates or agenda for Carney's planned visit later this month.
Erdogan Meets German State Premier Wüst in Ankara Amid Succession Speculation
Turkish President Erdogan met with North Rhine-Westphalia Premier Hendrik Wüst in Ankara on September 28, a meeting that drew attention in Germany because Turkish presidents rarely meet German state premiers, and Wüst has emerged in German media as a possible successor to Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
The meeting at Erdogan’s presidential complex lasted about 50 minutes. Wüst said the talks focused mainly on economic cooperation. "Different positions do not preclude cooperation. What matters is to remain in open dialogue,” Wüst said.
A statement issued after the meeting said the North Rhine-Westphalia state government “follows domestic political developments in Turkey with concern” while reaffirming its commitment to “open dialogue” with Ankara.
.svg.avif){kind=small}
