ANALYSIS
"Why Turkey May Not Let Hamas Wither Away" by Mustafa Enes Esen, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
On October 21, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Chief of Intelligence İbrahim Kalın met with Hamas leaders in Doha, a meeting that once again underscores Ankara’s determination to remain engaged in Gaza’s political future through Hamas.
Turkish officials do not see Hamas as an organization likely to disappear soon. Besides, Ankara does not view Hamas as a terrorist organization but as a legitimate political and resistance movement central to the Palestinian question. In this vein, Turkey seems intent on ensuring that Hamas retains a role, however limited, in Gaza’s administration. If Hamas loses ground, Ankara risks losing one of its influential tools in the region. For that reason, Ankara may seek to hold on to it for as long as possible.
"Coal, Oil, Gas, and Nuclear: Risks in Turkey’s Growing Energy Demands" by Mustafa Enes Esen, Washington Institute
Without further diversification of suppliers, expanded renewable capacity, strategic investments in LNG, and nuclear partnerships beyond Russia, Turkey risks exchanging one form of energy dependency for another.
Turkey’s energy challenge is not about whether demand will rise—it will. The question is whether the country can meet this energy demand without making itself more vulnerable. Vehicle electrification offers opportunities, but if mismanaged, it may cause continued reliance on hydrocarbons in a different form and on a narrow set of foreign partners. A deliberate strategy of diversification and investment in renewables, LNG terminals, gas-storage capacity, and grid modernization is therefore essential.
"Israel, Turkey navigate uneasy cooperation as Ankara joins Gaza peace plan" by Keren Setton, The Jerusalem Post
Turkey backs Hamas and wants to see Hamas remain in power in Gaza, after the end. Hence, Turkey cannot be seen as a constructive player in this sense, and if one believes that Hamas is a danger to the ability to restore calm and to reconstruction in Gaza, then Turkey is not a productive actor in this respect. An Israel–Syria understanding over the south could strengthen al-Sharaa, deepen his ties with Western and Arab capitals, and weaken Turkey’s position there. Such a shift could reshape Turkey’s role in Syria’s future.
"Turkey pressing for Western fighter jets to claw back regional edge" by Ece Toksabay and Jonathan Spicer, Reuters
Anxious to bolster its air power, Turkey has proposed to European partners and the U.S. ways it could swiftly obtain advanced fighter jets as it seeks to make up ground on regional rivals such as Israel, sources familiar with the talks say.
For the Typhoons, Turkey is nearing a deal with Britain and other European countries in which it would promptly receive 12 of them, albeit used, from previous buyers Qatar and Oman to meet its immediate needs, according to a person familiar with the matter. Erdogan is expected to discuss the proposal on visits to Qatar and Oman on Wednesday and Thursday, with jet numbers, pricing, and timelines the main issues.
POLITICS
Ankara Court Dismisses Corruption Case Against CHP as ‘Moot’
An Ankara court on October 24 dismissed a corruption case against Turkey’s main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), ruling that the case lacked substance. The lawsuit, which focused on allegations of vote buying during a CHP party congress in November 2023, was rejected by the judge on the grounds that it was “moot.”
Onur Yusuf Uregen, the lawyer representing the plaintiffs, said they plan to appeal the court’s decision to dismiss the corruption case. “We weren’t expecting the case to be dismissed; it was a surprise,” Uregen told reporters.
CHP leader Ozgur Ozel welcomed the decision, describing the lawsuit as an attempt to discredit the party rather than address a genuine legal issue. “The purpose was to make the CHP a subject of debate. They tried to make us sick, to infect our system, but the CHP neither weakened nor accepted those toxins,” he said.
Istanbul Mayor Imamoglu Denies Espionage Allegations in New Probe
Istanbul Mayor and CHP’s presidential candidate Ekrem Imamoglu and his campaign director, both already in pretrial detention over a separate case, have now been implicated in an espionage investigation that led to the detention of a TV executive on October 24.
Police raided the home and office of journalist Merdan Yanardag, editor-in-chief of the opposition-linked TELE 1 TV, in the morning and took him into custody as part of the same probe.
In a statement, the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office said the investigation into Imamoglu and others is based on digital evidence seized from businessman Huseyin Gun, who was arrested on July 4 on espionage charges. Authorities claimed Gun had ties to “foreign intelligence agents” and had communicated with Imamoglu’s campaign director, Canan Ozkan, “in a manner suggesting instructions.” The statement also accused Yanardag of “working with foreign intelligence services to manipulate the 2019 local elections.”
Yanardag has denied all allegations through his lawyer.
From jail, Imamoglu issued a written statement strongly condemning the espionage probe, calling it “a disgraceful lie and conspiracy.”
Separately, prosecutors have opened another investigation into “Istanbul Senin” (Istanbul Is Yours), a digital platform launched by the Istanbul Municipality in 2021.
According to prosecutors, a network described as the “Imamoglu profit-driven criminal organization” allegedly leaked the personal and location data of 4.7 million users to two foreign countries and attempted to sell data from another 3.7 million users on the dark web. The investigation also claims that voter data for 11 million people was extracted from a sub-module of the app called “IBB Hanem.”
Authorities said 13 suspects have been detained in connection with this case.
Later in the evening, the Prosecutor’s Office announced that a trustee had been appointed to ABC Radio, Television and Digital Broadcasting Corporation, the parent company of TELE 1. During the main news broadcast, the trustee ordered the channel to halt live broadcasts, after which the channel switched to pre-recorded content.
On October 26, Imamoglu was brought from Silivri Prison to the Çağlayan courthouse and gave his statement to the prosecutor’s office. Denying all accusations, Imamoglu described the espionage charges as “the greatest insult he has ever faced,” saying, “I have no connection to intelligence agencies or their employees. The accusations against me are absurd. I believe the investigation is entirely based on conspiracy theories. The fact that I burned Rome is more accurate.”
Imamoglu Acquitted in Tender Rigging Case
Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu was acquitted in a case concerning alleged "tender rigging" during his tenure as Beylikduzu Mayor. The case had sought both a prison sentence and a political ban for Imamoglu.
The court ruled that the legal elements of the alleged crime were not met and acquitted him.
Ankara Municipality Denies Claims of Investigation Permission Against Mayor Yavas
The Ministry of Interior reportedly granted permission to investigate Ankara Metropolitan Mayor Mansur Yavas and his Chief of Staff Nevzat Uzunoglu over alleged irregularities in the municipality’s concert expenses. According to the claim, Yavas was asked to submit his defense within a week.
The Municipality, however, rejected the allegation. In a statement, it said, “The Ministry of Interior assigned an inspector to review the matters in question, and the investigation is ongoing. Mayor Mansur Yavas has already submitted a written statement regarding the issue.”
The statement further clarified that the seven-day deadline mentioned in media reports is the standard 7–10 day period routinely granted for defense right in Ministry-led investigations.
PKK Announces Complete Withdrawal of Forces from Turkey
On October 26, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) announced that it had withdrawn all its forces from Turkey with the approval of its leader Abdullah Ocalan. During a press conference in Qandil, the group stated that the withdrawal included all forces within Turkey that posed a risk of conflict or were vulnerable to potential provocations.
The PKK also emphasized that the legal and political measures required by this process must be implemented immediately, and that the necessary laws should be enacted promptly to allow their participation in democratic politics.
President Erdogan to Meet DEM Party Delegation for Third Time
AK Party Chairman and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet Pervin Buldan and Mithat Sancar, lawmakers of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party), on October 28.
This will mark Erdogan’s third meeting with the DEM Party delegation. Their first meeting occurred on April 10, and the second on July 7, 2025.
DEM Party Delegation Meets Jailed Kurdish Leaders to Discuss Peace Process
A delegation from the DEM Party, including Pervin Buldan and Mithat Sancar, met with imprisoned Kurdish politicians during visits to Edirne and Kandira prisons. Those visited included former HDP co-chairs Selahattin Demirtas and Figen Yuksekdag, as well as Selcuk Mizrakli and Semra Guzel.
According to a written statement released after the meetings, discussions focused on the peace process, with participants sharing views on the necessary steps to move it forward.
“Selahattin Demirtas voiced his full support for the process and said he is ready to contribute in every possible way to ensure its success and to help establish peace and democracy,” the DEM Party said.
The statement also noted that Yuksekdag expressed optimism about building a democratic and peaceful society and pledged to continue supporting the process.
Veteran Kurdish Politician Turk Acquitted of Terrorism Charges
Prominent Kurdish politician Ahmet Turk, former co-mayor of Mardin from the DEM Party, has been acquitted of terrorism-related charges that led to his removal from office in November 2024. The case originated from a speech Turk delivered in the southeastern province of Siirt in March 2011, with the trial beginning in 2022.
The court ruled that Turk’s remarks did not constitute a criminal offense, determining that his statements fell within the boundaries of freedom of expression in a democratic society. The ruling comes amid ongoing peace talks with the PKK aimed at resolving the decades-long conflict.
Following the acquittal, it remains uncertain whether Turk will be reinstated to his position in the coming days.
ECONOMY
Turkish Central Bank Cuts Interest Rate to 39.5 Percent
The Turkish Central Bank lowered its benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 39.5 percent on October 23. In a statement issued after a Monetary Policy Committee meeting chaired by Governor Fatih Karahan, the bank announced that the one-week repo rate was reduced from 40.5 percent to 39.5 percent.
The bank noted that inflation continued to rise in September but said recent data indicate that demand conditions remain consistent with disinflation, though the pace has slowed.
The central bank reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining a tight monetary policy “until price stability is achieved.”
Turkish Central Bank Officials Voice Growing Concern Over Inflation
Turkish central bankers told foreign investors last week that they were increasingly concerned about inflation and were prepared to slow the pace of interest rate cuts, according to four participants who spoke to Reuters.
The sources, all foreign investors holding Turkish bonds, attended some of a series of presentations by Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan and his deputies during the annual IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington.
At the events, the central bankers said they would closely monitor market expectations ahead of the October 23 policy decision and aimed to address what one participant described as “sticky” inflation seen in recent months.
MASAK and Presidential Office Issue Conflicting Statements Over Controversial Asset Seizure Bill
Media reports claimed that a new amendment in the omnibus bill draft would allow prosecutors to seize assets in all catalogue crimes without a court order or reports from relevant institutions.
The Financial Crimes Investigation Board (MASAK) issued a statement clarifying that the regulation only applies to aggravated fraud, theft, and misuse of debit or credit cards. MASAK emphasized that the amendment does not create conditions for arbitrary handling of property rights.
The Presidential Office fully denied the allegation, calling it baseless disinformation intended to mislead the public.
Former AK Party deputy Şamil Tayyar, however, challenged the official statements, stating that “they denied each other.” Tayyar argued that the original draft bill did grant prosecutors the authority to seize assets in all catalogue crimes, but following harsh criticism, President Erdogan ordered that this authority be limited.
Turkish Parliament Moves to Empower MASAK to Freeze Suspicious Accounts
The Turkish Parliament is set to grant the MASAK authority to immediately freeze bank accounts linked to suspicious transactions, Ekonomim reported.
The proposed 20-article bill would enable MASAK to monitor and intervene in financial operations in real time. Officials said the measure aligns with recommendations from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), the global watchdog on money laundering and terrorist financing.
The bill also increases penalties for money laundering, illegal gambling, and cyber-fraud, while expanding the financial police’s oversight of unexplained transactions. Banks and financial institutions would be required to strengthen customer verification and reporting of suspicious activity.
Turkish Court Arrests 11 in Expanding Can Holding Investigation
A Turkish court on October 20 ordered the arrest of 11 people, including Can Holding Chairman Kenan Tekdag and former Istanbul Bilgi University rector Remzi Sanver, as part of a widening investigation into the company. Tekdag, who had previously been detained in September and placed under house arrest, was among those jailed pending trial. Sanver is also known for his role in the Grand Lodge of Free and Accepted Masons of Turkey.
Fourteen others, including Betul Can and Zuhal Can - the wives of company owners Sakir Can and Murat Can - were released under judicial supervision.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Germany Increases Deportations, Sending Most to Turkey
Germany has deported nearly 17,700 people so far this year, with most sent to Turkey, marking a nearly 20 percent rise compared to the same period in 2024, German media reported, citing government data released in response to a parliamentary inquiry.
Between January and September, 17,651 people were deported from Germany, up from 14,706 during the same period last year. The largest number of deportations—1,614—were to Turkey, followed by 1,379 to Georgia.
The figures were provided by the federal government in response to a question from the Left Party. Clara Bunger, the party’s domestic policy spokesperson, criticized the deportations to countries like Turkey, saying it “persecutes leftists, Kurds, and opposition figures.”
Forensic Report Finds Celebrity Manager Unfit for Prison
The Forensic Medicine Institute has reported that Ayse Barim, a manager of celebrity figures, is in poor health and unfit for imprisonment. Barim was released on October 1 during the second hearing of her trial for "attempting to overthrow the government." However, after the prosecutor’s office filed an objection, a higher court ordered her re-arrest.
The forensic report stated that Barim “is undergoing treatment in hospital, and her treatment should continue there, as prison conditions are not suitable for her health.” Following the report, the court lifted the arrest warrant for Barim.
Turkey Detains 286 People in Ongoing Gulen Movement Crackdown
Turkish authorities have detained 286 people and arrested 154 in a continuing crackdown on the Gulen movement, Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya announced on October 21. He added that judicial control measures have been applied to 79 others.
Yerlikaya said on X that police operations across 50 provinces, including Istanbul, Izmir, and Ankara, have led to the arrests and detentions over the past month.
FOREIGN POLICY
British PM Starmer to Visit Ankara, Expected to Sign Eurofighter Jet Deal
Presidential Communications Director Burhanettin Duran announced on social media that British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will make an official visit to Ankara on October 27, following an invitation from Turkish President Erdogan.
Ragip Soylu from Middle East Eye reported that Starmer is expected to sign a Eurofighter jet deal during the visit and they would bring two jets to Ankara to showcase the product. According to Soylu, the agreement is likely to include the sale of 20 used jets operated by the Royal Air Force, with 20 additional units to be delivered later.
Erdogan and Omani Sultan Aims to Strengthen Ties with New Agreements
President Erdogan met with Omani Sultan Haitham bin Tariq on October 23 in Muscat. The meeting, held behind closed doors at Al Alam Palace, focused on strengthening bilateral relations and discussing regional and global developments.
After their one-on-one talks, Erdogan and Haitham co-chaired a meeting between their delegations and attended a ceremony to sign several new agreements.
Omani Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan signed joint statements on the “Establishment of a Coordination Council” and a “Visa Exemption for Ordinary Passport Holders.”
The two countries also signed several memoranda of understanding covering cooperation in mining and critical minerals, investment, military collaboration, the defense industry, as well as media and communication.
Turkey and Qatar Sign New Cooperation Deals
Turkey and Qatar signed several new cooperation agreements and issued a joint declaration on October 22 after talks in Doha. Turkish President Erdogan met with Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani at the Emir’s Diwan, where they co-chaired the 11th meeting of the Turkey–Qatar High Strategic Committee.
The “Joint Declaration on the 11th Meeting of the Turkey–Qatar High Strategic Committee” was signed by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani.
A memorandum of understanding on “cooperation and experience sharing in strategic development planning” was signed by Turkish Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek and Trade Minister Omer Bolat, along with Qatar’s National Planning Council Secretary-General Abdulaziz bin Nasir Al Khalifa.
Trade ministers from both countries also signed a “Joint Ministerial Statement,” while another memorandum on “defense industry cooperation” was signed by Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries head Haluk Gorgun and Qatari Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Sheikh Saud bin Abdulrahman Al Thani.
Earlier in the day, Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan held closed-door talks in Doha with a Hamas delegation led by Mohammed Darwish on maintaining the ceasefire. Darwish said that Hamas “remains committed to a complete ceasefire despite repeated enemy violations.”
Following his meeting with Qatar’s emir, Erdogan’s office announced that Turkish President said the ceasefire “has provided relief to Palestinians,” but emphasized that a two-state solution remains the only viable path to resolving the Israeli–Palestinian conflict, according to a statement from his office.
Turkey and Kuwait Strengthen Partnership with Four New Agreements
Turkey and Kuwait signed four cooperation agreements on October 21 during a ceremony at Bayan Palace in Kuwait City, attended by President Erdogan and Kuwaiti Amir Sheikh Meshal al-Ahmad al-Jaber al-Sabah.
Erdogan was received with an official ceremony in Kuwait before holding inter-delegation meetings with Mishal.
The two governments signed a maritime transport agreement and a memorandum of understanding on the mutual recognition of seafarers’ certificates between Turkey’s Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure and Kuwait’s Interior Ministry. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Kuwait’s First Deputy Prime Minister and Interior Minister Sheikh Fahad Youssef Saud al-Sabah signed the documents.
Energy ministers Alparslan Bayraktar of Turkey and Subaih Abdulaziz Abdulmohsen al-Muhaizem of Kuwait signed another memorandum focused on cooperation in electricity, energy efficiency, and renewable energy.
The final memorandum was signed by Ahmet Burak Daglioglu and Sheikh Dr. Meshaal Jaber al-Ahmad al-Sabah. The memorandum aims to boost direct investment between Turkey’s Presidency Investment and Finance Office and the Kuwait Direct Investment Promotion Authority.
UN Report Accuses Turkey and Western Powers of Enabling Israel’s Actions in Gaza
A United Nations report has accused Turkey, along with several Western and regional powers, of enabling Israel’s genocide in Gaza through ongoing trade, military cooperation, and diplomatic actions that violate international law.
The report, titled “Gaza Genocide: A Collective Crime,” was presented on October 20 to the UN General Assembly by Francesca Albanese, the special rapporteur on human rights in the Palestinian territories.
According to the report, Turkey’s policies have not reflected its public stance on Gaza. Despite announcing a trade ban in May 2024, data cited in the report suggest that oil shipments and trans-shipments from Turkish ports to Israel have continued indirectly through intermediaries.
The report also points to the export of dual-use goods—items that can serve both civilian and military functions—saying these may have supported Israel’s military operations despite Turkey’s official embargo.
Netanyahu Rules Out Turkish Role in Gaza Despite U.S. Remarks
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said on October 22 that “there will be no Turkish involvement” in Gaza, following reports that Netanyahu clashed with Egyptian intelligence chief Hassan Rashad over the issue during their meeting in Jerusalem a day earlier. “There is no disagreement,” the office told the Times of Israel. “There will be no Turkish involvement.”
The statement came a day after US Vice President JD Vance said Washington sees “a constructive role for the Turks” in efforts to stabilize Gaza. Speaking at the Civilian-Military Coordination Center in southern Israel, Vance told reporters that any decision on foreign troop presence “is up to the Israelis,” emphasizing that the United States would not “force anything on our Israeli friends” but values Turkey’s contribution.
On October 26, Netanyahu once again said that Israel would determine which foreign forces it allows to participate in a planned international mission in Gaza. “We are in control of our security, and we have made it clear regarding international forces that Israel will decide which forces are unacceptable to us. This is how we operate and will continue to operate,” Netanyahu told a cabinet session.
Turkey Appoints First Ambassador to Syria in 13 Years
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has appointed Deputy Foreign Minister Nuh Yilmaz as Ankara’s new ambassador to Syria, replacing charge d’affaires Ambassador Burhan Koroglu, who had represented Turkey since December 12, 2024.
Yilmaz’s appointment marks the first time Turkey has named an ambassador to its Damascus embassy since it closed in 2012. He has served as deputy foreign minister since May 2024 and previously worked for the National Intelligence Organization (MIT) under Fidan’s leadership.
Erdogan Invites Newly Elected Northern Cyprus President Erhurman to Ankara
Turkish President Erdogan has invited Tufan Erhurman, the newly elected president of Turkish-controlled Northern Cyprus, to visit Ankara.
Speaking to reporters aboard his plane after concluding a Gulf tour that included Qatar, Kuwait, and Oman, Erdogan said Turkey respects the democratic choice of Turkish Cypriots and will continue to support the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC).
Erdogan revealed that he invited Erhurman to visit Ankara “after my Gulf trip” and confirmed that Erhurman had accepted the invitation.
Turkish Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz also met with Erhurman on October 23 at the presidential compound in Nicosia. Yilmaz attended the handover ceremony as Erhurman officially took office as the sixth president of the TRNC.
Meanwhile, Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahceli continued to take a different stance from Erdogan during his party’s parliamentary group meeting. Bahceli said, “After Duzce, the 81st province, the TRNC becoming the 82nd province has now become a matter of life and death.” He urged the Cyprus Parliament to convene urgently, reject the election results and the idea of a federation, and instead “decide to join the Republic of Turkey.”
Venezuela Resumes Coal Production with Turkish Company Amid US Sanctions
Venezuela, seeking new sources of income under U.S. sanctions, has resumed coal production in partnership with a Turkish company and aims to export more than 10 million tons this year, Reuters reported, citing company sources.
Coal is exempt from U.S. sanctions, enabling the reactivation of Carboturven, a joint venture between Venezuela’s state-owned Carbozulia and Turkey’s Glenmore Dis Ticaret Ve Madencilik A.S.
Venezuela supplies raw coal to Turkey, which then sells it to European markets, said one employee at Paso Diablo who asked to remain anonymous. The employee noted that the goal is to export 10 million metric tons annually. However, recent U.S. military strikes on boats in the Caribbean have disrupted exports and halted production, the source added.
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