"Our Experts Assess the Mecca Pact's Rapid Deployment Decision", The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
Mustafa Enes Esen:
While these developments may appear to be a major escalation, the Turkish commitment does not differ substantially from what some Western countries have already pledged; unlike Turkey, however, they have done so with little publicity. In other words, Turkey would be joining a defensive effort to which others have contributed for some time. Greece has operated a Patriot battery in Saudi Arabia since 2021 and has intercepted Houthi missiles and drones aimed at the refinery in Yanbu. France is sending troops to guard the Yanbu oil terminal, and the United Kingdom is refueling Saudi aircraft on defensive missions.
The Mecca agreement matters more as a framework for action than as a motive for it, since Ankara's own interests drive its decisions. Turkey is likely to continue using it as the main channel for its defense relations with Saudi Arabia. This does not mean that Turkey will fight Riyadh's war; rather, Ankara will use the pact to advance its own interests with Riyadh.
Hasim Tekines:
Turkey's participation in the Yemen war could go wrong in many ways. Turkish forces in Saudi Arabia could become targets of Houthi attacks. Turkey, however, is also becoming part of the broader regional conflict. Although Ankara will do its best to downplay its role in the Yemen war and maintain diplomatic ties with Tehran, the Iranian regime, with newfound confidence on the battlefield, could choose to impose costs on the Turkish government in an effort to push it back to the sidelines. This could open the door to a new stage of escalation between Turkey and Iran.
Servet Akman:
With the Turkish parliament expected to review the agreement after reconvening in October, the nature of any proposed deployment will be crucial. Air defense assets, trainers, logistics, or technical personnel would raise a very different political and legal question from combat troops or forces intended to operate inside Yemen.
If a substantial Turkish military deployment ultimately comes onto the table, taking the issue to parliament would be both a matter of legal procedure and of political responsibility-sharing.
"Turkey's Fund Collapse: When Regulatory Awareness Fails to Prevent a Crisis" by Ferhat Gunaydın, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
For hundreds of thousands of Turkish investors, the crisis is not an abstract debate about market governance. It concerns savings accumulated over years, often in an effort to preserve purchasing power against inflation, now caught in a complex liquidation process with uncertain outcomes.
Turkey now faces a choice between containing the immediate financial consequences and confronting the deeper institutional weaknesses exposed by the crisis. The first approach may temporarily stabilize asset prices. The second could begin to restore credibility. When a financial crisis breaks out, the greatest loss is not always the capital that disappears. It is the trust that will take far longer to rebuild.
"Israel and Turkey are not natural rivals. It’s time to stop treating them that way" by Alissa Pavia, Atlantic Council
The rivalry between Israel and Turkey is neither inevitable nor a consequence of a natural competition between two major regional powers. Instead, it is the byproduct of each country’s attempts at long-term self-preservation and maintaining strategic autonomy through greater regional influence. The West should not confuse Jerusalem’s and Ankara’s objectives to be incompatible and instead find ways of managing rather than entrenching both countries further into this competition.
Israel’s reason to ally itself with Greece and Cyprus on the grid project stems primarily from a desire to isolate Turkey for regional geostrategic interests rather than domestic energy needs. The recent three-billion-euro Israeli–Greek defense agreement underscores how far that alignment has gone. For Jerusalem, it may also serve a broader purpose: increasing pressure on Ankara at a time when the two countries are competing for influence in Syria.
However, should disputes over Syria find a resolution, Jerusalem would have less interest to deepen its ties to Cyprus and Greece as a means to isolate Turkey. Just as Israel is not a natural enemy of Turkey, it is not a natural ally of Greece: the Athens–Jerusalem partnership deepened only relatively recently, after decades in which Greece courted Arab states for support over Cyprus.
"Pragmatic politics: Why Turkey avoids blaming Russia for Black Sea attacks" by Barin Kayaoglu, Al-Monitor
Several deadly Black Sea attacks on Turkish-linked vessels are testing Turkey’s relations with Russia, but economic interests, active mediation efforts and Ankara’s incentive to preserve its balancing act between Moscow and the West make a rupture unlikely.
Beyond economics, Ankara’s approach is also shaped by maintaining its role as an indispensable mediator between the Kremlin and the West. Turkey’s ability to sustain ties with Moscow independently of its NATO allies raises the potential strategic cost to European capitals of alienating Ankara.
Forty CHP Mayors Arrested in Turkey Since March 2024 Local Elections as Crackdown Expands
Turkish authorities have arrested 40 mayors from the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) since the March 2024 local elections, including some who have since been released, according to figures cited in the report.
The CHP won the most votes in 14 of Turkey's 30 metropolitan municipalities in the March 31, 2024, elections. Subsequent arrests, dismissals and party switches have reshaped the political landscape across these municipalities.
Istanbul has become the main focus of investigations into CHP-led municipalities, with authorities pursuing cases against mayors and other local officials.
The wave of arrests began in October 2024, when authorities jailed Ahmet Ozer, mayor of Istanbul's Esenyurt district, on allegations of membership in the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).
Investigations have since spread across Turkey, affecting municipalities in Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, Antalya, Adana and Mersin. Authorities have brought allegations ranging from corruption and bribery to links with terrorist organizations.
The campaign escalated in March 2025, when authorities arrested Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu and several CHP mayors from Istanbul's districts.
The latest arrests include Mersin Metropolitan Mayor Vahap Secer, Istanbul's Eyupsultan Mayor Mithat Bulent Ozmen, and Ataşehir acting mayor Murat Gunes.
Following Ozmen's arrest and suspension in an investigation into the Eyupsultan Municipality, municipal council members elected CHP councilor Cafer Parlak as acting mayor on October 10. Parlak won 19 of the council's 37 votes in the fourth round.
The Atasehir Municipal Council also met on October 10 to elect an acting mayor. Neither the CHP nor the New Party nominated a candidate, and their council members did not take part in the vote. AK Party member Serdar Orhan ran unopposed and won the election as acting mayor in the fourth round.
Izmir Mayor Cemil Tugay Joins Erdogan's AK Party
Cemil Tugay, mayor of Izmir, Turkey's third-largest city and a longtime opposition stronghold, joined the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) on October 7, prompting resignations at local cultural institutions and criticism from opposition leader Ozgur Ozel.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced Tugay's defection at an AK Party parliamentary group meeting in Ankara and welcomed the mayor onstage.
Speaking at the ceremony, Tugay praised Erdogan as a "great leader" and described the AK Party as "the champion of the friendless." "With the valuable support of the AK Party family, we are setting out to get Izmir back on its feet and virtually rebuild our city," Tugay said.
Tugay's move prompted nine members of the Izmir City Theater advisory board to resign. In a joint statement, they said his decision disregarded "the will of the people of Izmir and our audience."
Zafer Levent Yildir, deputy mayor of Izmir Metropolitan Municipality and first deputy speaker of the municipal council, also announced his resignation from both positions.
Ozel, leader of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), condemned Tugay's move, saying, "Had we known he would commit such a betrayal against Izmir, we would not have nominated him."
He also suggested that the AK Party leadership would appoint a powerful secretary-general to oversee the city while keeping Tugay in a "symbolic role." "To us, Cemil is a traitor; to them, he is a puppet.", Özel said.
Turkey Minister Files Criminal Complaints Over Fund Crisis Allegations Against Her Father
Turkey's Family and Social Services Minister Mahinur Ozdemir Goktas has filed criminal complaints against opposition lawmakers Umit Ozlale, Cemal Enginyurt and Ali Mahir Basarir over allegations linking her father to 830 million lira in investment fund transactions.
Ozlale made the allegations during a parliamentary speech on October 7, claiming that an unnamed cabinet minister had used her father's account to invest 470 million lira, which grew to 830 million lira before the investor withdrew the money ahead of the fund crisis.
Ozlale insisted that the documents, names and figures he cited matched records from Turkey's Central Securities Depository (MKK). He also alleged that someone inside the ruling party had provided the opposition with the information.
Goktas denied that she or any family member held accounts in or conducted transactions involving the funds. She said the investor was a different person named Hasan Ozdemir whose national identification number did not match her father's. She also pledged to resign if the allegations proved true.
In addition to filing criminal complaints against the three opposition lawmakers, Goktas filed a civil lawsuit against Ozlale seeking 1 million lira in damages.
Bahceli Calls for Impartial Probe Into Public Resource Misuse as Parliament Rejects Fund Crisis Inquiries
Devlet Bahceli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), which supports President Erdogan's government in parliament, called on October 6 for allegations of public resource misuse to face investigation regardless of the political affiliation or position of those involved.
"These should be considered an opportunity for purification, acquittal and addressing the underlying causes," Bahceli said.
However, lawmakers from the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and its ally, the MHP, rejected all opposition proposals on October 8 to launch parliamentary inquiries into Turkey's investment fund scandal.
The opposition proposals called for investigations into suspected stock manipulation, fraud and political connections, as well as whether regulators had ignored prior warnings and who should bear responsibility for investors' losses.
Annual Inflation Falls Below 30% for First Time Since 2021
Turkey's annual inflation rate fell to 29.73 percent in September, dropping below 30 percent for the first time since November 2021, according to official data released by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) on October 5.
Consumer prices rose 1.84 percent from August, bringing cumulative inflation since the start of the year to 24.32 percent. The 12-month average inflation rate stood at 31.49 percent.
Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek said in a statement on X that disinflation was spreading across most categories, with transportation among the exceptions. He added that recent increases in oil prices were putting additional pressure on inflation.
The independent Inflation Research Group (ENAG), which brings together economists and academics, reported a monthly inflation rate of 2.10 percent for September and an annual rate of 46.61 percent, significantly above the official figures.
Turkey Probes Former Minister's Stock Trades as Couple Returns Investment Profits
Former Family and Social Policies Minister Fatma Betul Sayan Kaya and her husband, Ilyas Kaya, transferred the portion of their investment proceeds exceeding their initial capital to an account designated for voluntary repayments to Turkey's Savings Deposit Insurance Fund (TMSF) on October 5, with permission from the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor's Office, according to reports.
Authorities had sought to freeze the couple's assets as part of an investigation into their investments.
On October 7, the couple appeared at the Caglayan Courthouse in Istanbul to give statements as suspects. Prosecutors reportedly questioned them separately about their purchases and sales of shares in shipbuilder Ozata Denizcilik and the subsequent movement of funds.
The couple told prosecutors that no one directed them to buy the shares and that they received no privileged information. Both said they had transferred the profits from their investments to the TMSF-designated account.
Also on October 7, AK Party Secretary General Eyup Kadir Inan announced that Kaya had been expelled from the party. Kaya had previously resigned from all her party positions. “Fatma Betul is neither a member nor affiliated with our party,” Inan said.
Foreign Investors Pull $1.83 Billion From Turkish Bonds Amid Fund Crisis
Foreign investors sold a net $1.83 billion in Turkish government and corporate bonds over the three weeks through October 2, as an investment fund crisis affected nearly half a million people.
Investors sold approximately $1.01 billion in government bonds and $826 million in corporate debt during the period.
Meanwhile, foreign currency deposits held by individuals and businesses in Turkey rose by $5.22 billion over the same three weeks, excluding exchange rate effects.
Separately, liquidation proceedings for 17 investment funds have concluded, and authorities transferred funds for approximately 43,000 investors to the banks responsible for processing their payments, Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek announced on October 8.
Draft legislation establishing a legal framework for investment fund liquidations is expected to reach the relevant parliamentary committee before lawmakers begin discussions on the 2027 budget, scheduled for the week starting October 19.
The proposed temporary law aims to protect small investors, establish rules for distributing payments and provide a legal basis for extraordinary liquidation proceedings. It would also include provisions to recover losses from those found responsible for the crisis.
Turkey's Top Court Warns Defiance of Its Rulings Could Plunge Legal System Into Chaos
Turkey's Constitutional Court has warned that failure to implement its judgments could plunge the legal system into "chaos," in a reasoned decision published in the Official Gazette on October 6 that requires an Istanbul court to reopen the trial of jailed Gezi Park defendant Tayfun Kahraman.
In its reasoning for an April ruling, the Constitutional Court rejected claims that it had overstepped its authority. It said lower courts cannot redefine its constitutional powers or dispute the binding nature of its judgments.
"The Constitution does not grant public authorities that are under an obligation to implement a Constitutional Court decision ... the authority to resist Constitutional Court decisions or debate their binding nature," the court said.
The court also said the lower court must initiate retrial proceedings without waiting for a new application from Kahraman or his lawyers. It added that the court does not need to issue a separate ruling formally accepting the retrial request.
Turkey Blocks at Least 88 X Accounts, Including Free Speech Association
Turkish authorities ordered access blocked to at least 88 X accounts in the early hours of October 5, including the official account of the Freedom of Expression Association (İFÖD).
The orders came four days after authorities blocked access to EngelliWeb's X account, an İFÖD project that monitors and documents restrictions on websites, news reports, and social media accounts in Turkey.
The latest blocking orders targeted journalists, a former judge, a political party and individuals working in technology, psychology and the arts.
İFÖD said authorities blocked its @ifadeorgtr account on grounds of protecting “national security and public order.” X subsequently withheld the account from users in Turkey. The association said X also made many other accounts covered by the latest orders unavailable to users in the country.
Turkey Jails Two Journalists, Orders House Arrest for Two Others Over Fund Crisis Coverage
Turkish courts ordered the pre-trial detention of two journalists on October 9 and placed two others under house arrest on October 10 over allegations that they spread misleading information about the country's investment fund crisis, which erupted in mid-September.
Authorities jailed journalists Saban Sevinc and Mustafa Balci pending trial, while Ismail Saymaz and Murat Agirel were initially released under judicial control measures.
Police detained Sevinc and Balci on charges of "publicly disseminating misleading information" over social media posts linking Omer Celik, the ruling Justice and Development Party's (AK Party) deputy chairman and spokesperson, to the fund crisis. A court subsequently ordered both journalists to remain in pre-trial detention.
Trade Minister Omer Bolat filed a criminal complaint against Saymaz and Ağırel over a broadcast in which they questioned his connections to the fund scandal. Authorities released both journalists on October 9, subject to a travel ban and requirements to report to the police.
However, after Istanbul prosecutors challenged the release decision, another court ordered Saymaz and Agirel to remain under house arrest on October 10.
Turkey Weighs Additional Military Deployment to Saudi Arabia Under Makkah Defense Pact
Representatives of Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia met in Riyadh on October 5 and condemned recent attacks on the kingdom, particularly those targeting the holy cities of Mecca and Medina, without explicitly naming Yemen's Houthi movement.
In a joint statement, the three countries said they had decided to immediately implement their collective defense commitments under the Makkah Alliance for Defense and provide "the agreed military forces and capabilities to ensure their rapid deployment" to Saudi Arabia.
Turkey plans to expand its military support for Saudi Arabia in the coming weeks by deploying additional personnel and defense equipment amid escalating Houthi attacks, Middle East Eye reported, citing several Turkish officials.
A senior Turkish official said a 2010 military training agreement between Ankara and Riyadh allows Turkey to deploy limited forces to the kingdom for technical purposes. However, any broader deployment would require parliamentary authorization under Turkey's constitution. "We have to ratify the Makkah treaty as well, but we may prioritise the military deployment authorization bill," the official said.
A second Turkish official said Ankara planned to station troops at at least one command base in Saudi Arabia, with their mission limited to defensive support. The officials added that Turkey could deploy a small number of special forces once parliament approves the necessary authorization.
The proposed deployment has drawn criticism from the opposition. Speaking at a New Party group meeting, party leader Ozgur Ozel argued that the decision under the Makkah Alliance would make Turkey a party to the conflict in Yemen. "Common defense pacts are established in times of peace. Signing this with a country at war is directly taking sides," Ozel said. "We reject the adventurism that would send Turkish soldiers into Yemen’s deserts after 100 years.”
EU Warns Turkey's Democratic Backsliding Is Further Undermining Membership Bid
The European Union expressed "serious concerns" about democratic standards in Turkey on October 9, warning that restrictions on rights and freedoms were further undermining Ankara's long-stalled bid to join the bloc.
EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos made the remarks in Edirne, northwestern Turkey, where she attended the inauguration ceremony for the Cerkezkoy-Kapikule high-speed railway line alongside Transport and Infrastructure Minister Abdulkadir Uraloglu. Turkey and the European Union jointly financed the project.
Uraloglu said he and Kos discussed bilateral cooperation and joint projects in the transport sector.
"Our concerns about democratic standards remain," Kos told journalists in Edirne. "The latest developments affecting media freedom, the rights of LGBTIQ+ people, and local democracy are widening the gap with Turkey's objective of joining the EU."
Kos said the European Commission's annual enlargement report, scheduled for publication on October 28, would reflect the bloc's concerns over these issues. "And I will also not shy away from stating the facts publicly and clearly," she added.
Colombia-Venezuela Gold Smuggling Network Allegedly Uses Turkey as Transit Hub
A Colombian media report alleged that between 500 kilograms and one ton of gold leaves Colombia illegally each week, with Turkey serving as a transit point.
According to the report, smugglers transport the gold to Venezuela, where they process it into ingots before shipping it from Caracas to Istanbul and onward to Dubai.
Some of the gold allegedly travels with passengers on Turkish Airlines commercial flights, connecting through Turkey before continuing to the United Arab Emirates. One source also pointed to the use of private aircraft and provided information that could help track their movements.
Three Ships Sink in Black Sea Attacks, Crew Members Killed
Three ships sank following separate attacks in the Black Sea over three days from October 5 to October 7, with the latest incident reportedly claiming 10 lives.
Romania reported on October 5 that a Turkish-owned grain ship, Royad Mammadov, caught fire and sank in the Black Sea. Two crew members died, while 11 others were rescued. In the second incident, all 18 crew members - 11 Turkish nationals and seven Indian nationals - were rescued after the Palau-flagged grain carrier Able came under attack on October 6. The third attack occurred on October 7, when a cargo ship en route to the Romanian port of Sulina sank. Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev announced that 10 crew members had lost their lives in the incident. The vessel was identified as Alfa Watan, a Turkish-owned cargo ship sailing under the flag of Togo.
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