ANALYSIS
"Turkey’s president is moving to eviscerate democracy", The Economist
Mr Imamoglu is already behind bars, having been arrested in March on trumped-up charges and removed as mayor of Istanbul. The new ones will keep him there even longer. Worse may be to come for the CHP if the latest probe transforms into a terrorism investigation. That could allow Mr Erdogan and his Justice and Development (AK) party to wrest control from the CHP of the city Mr Imamoglu had run since 2019.
Such operations will probably pick up pace ahead of general elections, scheduled for 2028 but expected to take place earlier. Mr Erdogan’s government seems determined to turn the CHP into what Mr Ozel refers to as “his majesty’s opposition”. But it cannot afford to get carried away. A dramatic uptick in repression risks triggering mass protests and a market backlash.
"How Turkish Arms End Up in African Conflicts" by Sinan Ciddi and William Doran, Foreign Policy
Alongside its diplomatic surge, Turkey has emerged as a major arms supplier. Turkish drone and small-arms exports have surged, while its military footprint—both through the Turkish Armed Forces and Turkish private military companies—has expanded rapidly. These arms exports exacerbate instability in African states facing civil wars, routinely violating international sanctions and ending up in the hands of malicious regional actors.
Positive coverage of Turkey’s cultural, educational, and trade relationships should not obscure the danger of its military adventurism. Turkey’s arms sales in Africa—driven by profit, prestige, and ideology—have fostered instability rather than security. Through negligent sales practices and mercenary deployments, Ankara has positioned itself as an accelerant of Africa’s violence.
POLITICS
Erdogan Holds Third Meeting This Year with Pro-Kurdish DEM Party Delegation
Turkish President and Justice and Development Party (AK Party) Chairman Recep Tayyip Erdogan met on October 30 with a delegation from the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) in Ankara, marking their third meeting this year.
The DEM Party delegation included lawmakers Pervin Buldan and Mithat Sancar. The one-hour meeting at the presidential palace was also attended by AK Party Deputy Chairman Efkan Ala and National Intelligence Organization (MIT) chief Ibrahim Kalin.
In a written statement following the talks, the DEM Party delegation said both sides discussed the current stage of the “Peace and Democratic Society Process” and agreed on ways to advance it.
“We are pleased to announce that we share a mutual understanding and agreement on taking steps that will help the process move forward more quickly and effectively,” the statement said.
PKK Militants Begin Withdrawal from Turkey to Northern Iraq
Around 50 members of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) have withdrawn from Turkey to northern Iraq under the supervision of Turkish security forces. The move follows the PKK’s October 26 announcement that it had begun pulling all of its forces out of Turkish territory and relocating them to northern Iraq.
Local media reported that 47 PKK militants left Turkey carrying only light weapons, leaving heavy arms in hideouts across the country’s southeastern provinces.
Istanbul Mayor Imamoglu Arrested in Espionage Probe as Six Others Arrested in Related Case
Ekrem Imamoglu, the mayor of Istanbul and the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) candidate for the 2028 presidential election, testified on October 26 in an espionage investigation after being brought from Marmara Prison in Silivri to the Istanbul Courthouse in Caglayan. A criminal court in Istanbul issued arrest orders for Imamoglu, journalist Merdan Yanardag, and Imamoglu’s former campaign manager Necati Ozkan.
In a separate but related investigation, six people were arrested in connection with the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality’s digital platforms “Istanbul Senin” (Istanbul Is Yours) and “IBB Hanem.”
Prosecutors linked this case to the ongoing “espionage” probe involving Imamoglu. Prosecutors claim that personal and location data from millions of users of the “Istanbul Senin” app were leaked to two foreign countries.
Fifteen suspects were initially detained on October 24. After testifying before prosecutors at the Istanbul Courthouse, six were arrested by a criminal court of peace, while nine were released under judicial supervision.
MHP Leader Bahceli Skips Republic Day Events Amid Ruling Alliance Tensions
Turkey’s far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahceli, an ally of President Erdogan, skipped both the Republic Day ceremony at Anitkabir and Erdogan’s reception at the presidential palace on October 29, sparking speculation of a silent protest within the ruling alliance.
Opposition leaders, including CHP Chairman Ozgur Ozel and Good Party leader Musavat Dervisoglu, attended the official visit to Anitkabir. The MHP was represented instead by Istanbul MP and Deputy Speaker Celal Adan and parliamentary group chairman Erkan Akcay.
No MHP officials attended the evening reception at the presidential palace. The CHP, Good Party, and pro-Kurdish DEM Party were also absent.
Davutoglu Says Open to Cooperation with Erdogan; Babacan Denies Rumors of Returning to AK Party
Future Party (GP) leader Ahmet Davutoglu said he is willing to cooperate with President Erdogan if asked for help. Davutoglu, former prime minister and former senior member of the ruling AK Party, was asked during a program on October 27 whether he would accept a vice presidential post if offered by Erdogan. He replied, “If they say, ‘The state is in trouble, the economy is collapsing, come and help restore it,’ I wouldn’t hesitate.”
Meanwhile, Democracy and Progress Party (DEVA) leader Ali Babacan, also a former deputy prime minister and economy minister, denied claims that he might return to the AK Party. The rumors followed footage of President Erdogan meeting opposition leaders, including Babacan, at Parliament’s opening on October 1. Babacan said he met Erdogan in person for the first time on October 1, having only spoken on the phone three times before, and has had no contact since their brief exchange of greetings that day.
ECONOMY
Turkey Signs $11 Billion Deal with UK for 20 Eurofighter Typhoons
Turkey and the United Kingdom signed a major defense agreement for the sale of 20 Eurofighter Typhoon jets, valued at nearly $11 billion, during British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s visit to Ankara. The first jets are expected to be delivered in 2030.
“This is a really significant deal because it’s £8 billion [$10.7 billion] worth of orders,” Starmer said in a video released after talks with President Erdogan. Erdogan described the agreement as “a new symbol of the strategic relations” between Ankara and London and thanked Germany, Italy, and Spain—the other members of the Eurofighter consortium—for their “constructive approach.”
The British Defense Ministry called the order “the biggest fighter jet deal in a generation,” noting that equipping Turkey with top-of-the-range Typhoons will strengthen NATO deterrence and help sustain the UK workforce of 20,000.
Opposition lawmaker Turhan Comez from the Good Party criticized the deal, accusing the government of overpaying. Comez noted that Germany purchased 20 jets three weeks earlier for £3.3 billion, meaning Turkey would pay £235 million more per aircraft.
“Germany will pay 165 million pounds per plane, while we are paying 400 million,” Comez wrote on social media. “That’s an extra 263 billion Turkish lira for 20 aircraft. Is there anyone from the ruling party who can explain this?”
The Turkish Ministry of Defense said on October 30 that the country will pay about only £5.4 billion for 20 newly manufactured Eurofighter Typhoons. The ministry argued that the amount includes the aircraft, mission equipment, and various types and quantities of ammunition.
Greek Defense Minister Nikos Dendias criticized the UK’s decision to sell Eurofighter jets to Turkey, arguing that Ankara’s strategic goals conflict with those of the West. Dendias claimed that Turkey is pursuing “neo-Ottoman” policies and described the country as a key hub for Hamas’s foreign operations.
Spain Signs €3.12 Billion Deal for 45 Hurjet Aircraft from Turkish Aerospace
Spain has approved a €3.12 billion deal to buy 45 Hurjet jet trainer and light attack aircraft from Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI). The deal, endorsed by the Spanish Council of Ministers on October 28 marks one of Turkey’s biggest defense exports to an EU country.
Deliveries will start in 2028, and the aircraft are expected to enter service between 2029 and 2030. They are designed to stay operational for at least 30 years.
The agreement, valid until November 30, 2035, includes extensive industrial collaboration. Airbus Defense and Space Espana will lead the program in Spain, coordinating with 15 local aerospace companies. The partnership aims to integrate Hurjet’s production and technology into Spain’s domestic defense industry.
Turkey Aims to Fully Reopen Land Trade Corridor to Jordan and Gulf by 2026
Turkey plans to fully reopen a land trade corridor through Syria to Jordan and the Gulf by 2026, Trade Minister Omer Bolat said. Speaking in Amman after the Turkey-Jordan Joint Economic Commission meeting on October 28, Bolat noted that Turkish trucks could reach Jordan and the Gulf via Syria. However, he said work on customs procedures, visa regulations, and road rehabilitation is ongoing and expressed hope the corridor would be fully operational next year once these efforts are completed.
Bolat added that Turkey and Jordan are coordinating the repair and renewal of the historic Hejaz Railway. He said the railway is planned to carry both freight and passengers.
Turkey’s Top Refineries Shift to Non-Russian Oil Amid New Western Sanctions
Turkey’s largest oil refineries are increasing purchases of non-Russian crude in response to the latest Western sanctions on Russia, industry sources and two people with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters. SOCAR Turkey Aegean Refinery (STAR), owned by Azeri company SOCAR, has recently acquired four cargoes of crude from Iraq, Kazakhstan, and other non-Russian producers for December delivery.
Tupras, which operates two major refineries in Turkey, is also boosting purchases of non-Russian grades similar in quality to Russian Urals, including Iraqi crude. Sources said Tupras plans to phase out Russian crude entirely at one of its refineries to continue fuel exports to Europe without violating upcoming EU sanctions, while continuing to process Russian crude at its other facility.
Lukoil to Sell 600+ Gas Stations in Turkey Following New US Sanctions
Russia’s Lukoil announced on October 27 that it will sell its international holdings, including over 600 gas stations in Turkey, in response to a new round of US sanctions targeting Moscow. The company said the asset sales will proceed under a wind-down license issued by the US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) and added that it may request an extension to ensure uninterrupted operations.
On October 30, Lukoil confirmed it had accepted an offer from global commodity trader Gunvor to buy its foreign assets. The sale includes Lukoil International GmbH, which controls the oil major’s overseas holdings. Lukoil entered the Turkish market in 2008 with the $500 million acquisition of fuel retailer Akpet. The company currently operates more than 600 service stations across Turkey.
Uber to Invest $200 Million in Turkey, Open Major Tech Hub in Istanbul
Uber announced plans to invest $200 million in Turkey over the next five years, including the creation of a major technology and software development center in Istanbul.
A memorandum of understanding was signed on October 31 by Industry and Technology Minister Mehmet Fatih Kacir, Presidential Investment Office head Burak Daglioglu, and Uber’s head of business development, Madhu Kannan. The Istanbul hub will be Uber’s fourth technology center outside the United States, following those in Brazil, India, and the Netherlands.
Far-right Party Proposes Higher Taxes on Foreign Digital Platforms
Far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) has submitted a bill to parliament seeking to significantly raise taxes on foreign digital platforms. MHP Deputy Chairman Ismail Ozdemir announced the proposal, claiming that foreign platforms drain national capital and weaken Turkish media. He said the bill aims to support domestic media outlets struggling in the country’s shrinking advertising market. Under the proposal, the digital services tax for foreign companies would rise from 7.5 percent to 12.5 percent, while the current rate for Turkish firms would remain unchanged.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Turkey Ranks 118th in Global Rule of Law Index
Turkey ranked 118th out of 143 countries in the 2025 Rule of Law Index released by the World Justice Project (WJP), placing it among the world’s lowest-performing nations. The index evaluates how effectively laws are enforced, the accountability of government officials, and the protection of citizens’ fundamental rights.
According to the WJP, Turkey’s overall score dropped by another 1.9 percent compared to last year, marking one of the steepest annual declines globally. The country ranked 136th for constraints on government powers and 134th for fundamental rights.
Turkey Detains Dozens of Diplomats Over Alleged Gulen Movement Links
Turkish authorities have detained or issued arrest warrants for 64 current and former employees of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, including several senior diplomats, over alleged ties to the Gulen movement. Intelligence-led investigations led to detention or arrest orders for 64 of them.
Among those named are former Frankfurt Consul General Burak Kararti, former Münster Consul General Arif Hakan Yeter, and former chargé d’affaires in Tel Aviv Gurcay Seker.
Kararti and Seker were reportedly sent to Silivri Prison near Istanbul after court hearings, while Yeter remains at large under an active arrest warrant after leaving the country.
Separately, Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya announced on November 1 that 56 people have been detained in operations targeting the Gulen Movement across 31 provinces over the past two weeks. Of these, 50 have been arrested, three placed on probation, and the remainder are still undergoing processing, Yerlikaya said.
Kavala Marks Eight Years in Prison, Receives Global Messages of Solidarity
Businessman and human rights defender Osman Kavala, held in Marmara Prison in Silivri since November 1, 2017, completed his eighth year in detention on November 1, 2025. Kavala was sentenced to aggravated life imprisonment in 2022 for allegedly “attempting to overthrow the government by use of force and violence.”
FOREIGN POLICY
Chancellor Merz Clashes with Erdogan Over Judiciary and Gaza War During Ankara Visit
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz criticized Turkey’s judiciary and clashed with Turkish President Erdogan over their opposing stances on Israel’s war on Gaza during an official visit to Ankara on October 30.
At a joint press conference following their talks, Merz — who was making his first official visit to Turkey since becoming chancellor in May — said he had raised concerns about the independence of Turkey’s judiciary and the rule of law, citing the case of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu.
“There have been decisions in Turkey that do not yet meet the standards of the rule of law and democracy as we understand them from a European perspective,” Merz said. “I also expressed my concern that there are issues here that do not meet our expectations, for example regarding the independence of the judiciary.”
President Erdogan rejected the criticism, insisting that Turkey remains a functioning democracy where the judiciary operates independently. “Turkey is not an ordinary European or Asian country,” he said. “We are a democracy that ensures all processes function properly. Whoever violates the law, no matter their position, will face justice.”
The two leaders also disagreed sharply over the war in Gaza. Merz reiterated Germany’s view that Israel has the right to self-defense, saying the conflict could have ended sooner if Hamas had released its hostages and laid down its arms.
Turkey to Host Muslim Nations’ Foreign Ministers Meeting on Gaza Peace Plan
Turkey will host a meeting of foreign ministers from Muslim-majority countries in Istanbul on November 3 to discuss the United States–backed peace plan for Gaza, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan announced on October 31.
Fidan told reporters the meeting would “evaluate our progress and discuss what we can achieve together in the next stage.” He said the talks will focus on addressing implementation challenges of the Gaza peace plan and developing a unified strategy for future negotiations with Western countries and the United States. Foreign ministers from the UAE, Indonesia, Qatar, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan are expected to attend.
Turkish FM Fidan Meets Hamas Officials in Istanbul
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met with members of Hamas’s Political Bureau in Istanbul on November 1, diplomatic sources said. The meeting focused on the current ceasefire in Gaza and the urgent need for humanitarian aid in the region. Both sides reportedly exchanged views on ending the conflict and ensuring the uninterrupted delivery of humanitarian assistance to civilians.
Turkish Rescue Team Still Waiting for Israeli Approval to Enter Gaza
A Turkish disaster response team remains at the Gaza border awaiting Israeli permission to enter the Palestinian territory for search and rescue operations, a Defense Ministry spokesperson said on October 30. The 81-member team from Turkey’s disaster agency AFAD arrived at the border over a week ago with specialized search and rescue equipment. “AFAD is still waiting at the border. Israel has not yet issued any authorization for the team to enter,” the spokesperson said.
US Ambassador Dismisses Prospect of Israel-Turkey Conflict
Despite tensions between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Turkish President Erdogan, US Ambassador to Turkey Thomas Barrack dismissed the possibility of a confrontation.
Speaking at the Manama Dialogue in Bahrain on November 1, Barrack said, “There will be no war between Israel and Turkey. It will not happen.” He added, “If progress in Gaza continues, we will see a trade agreement between Israel and Turkey.”
However, a senior Turkish official rejected the notion of a trade deal, stating it is “not on the table,” contradicting Barrack’s comments. Israeli officials also questioned the ambassador’s statement, saying, “It is completely unclear what this is based on,” particularly given Israel’s veto on the entry of Turkish forces into Gaza.
US Treasury Official to Visit Europe and Middle East to Enforce Iran Sanctions
US Treasury Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence John K. Hurley will travel to Europe and the Middle East to advance Washington’s maximum pressure campaign against Iran and strengthen safeguards to prevent terrorist groups from accessing the global financial system, the Treasury Department announced on October 31.
According to the statement, Hurley’s trip will include visits to Israel, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Turkey, and Lebanon. In Turkey, Hurley will discuss how the United States and Turkey can cooperate to counter regional malign activities and prevent sanctions evasion, the statement added.
Turkey to Train Syrian Soldiers and Military Students Under New Cooperation Accord
Syrian soldiers will be allowed to use Turkish military barracks for training aimed at strengthening Syria’s military capabilities, while 49 Syrian students will begin studying at Turkish military academies, Ankara announced on October 30. At a briefing, the Turkish Defense Ministry said efforts to enhance Syria’s military capacity are continuing under the cooperation accord, covering training, bilateral visits, consultancy, and technical support.
“Certain units from the Syrian army have started military training in our country through the use of barracks and training grounds belonging to the Turkish Armed Forces,” the ministry said. It added that Turkey’s land, air, and naval academies will begin educating 49 Syrian students on October 31 as part of the agreement.
Iraq and Turkey Sign Oil-Financed Deal for Major Water Infrastructure Projects
Iraq signed a deal with Turkey on November 2 under which Turkish firms will carry out water infrastructure projects financed by revenue from Iraqi oil sales, a Turkish official said.
According to a statement from the Iraqi prime minister’s office, the two countries signed an agreement outlining an implementation mechanism for the water cooperation accord reached last year. The deal was signed by the foreign ministries of both countries.
Under the agreement, Iraq will establish a committee to oversee water infrastructure projects and invite bids from Turkish companies. Payments for these projects will be financed through Iraqi oil sales to Turkey, the Turkish official noted.
An Iraqi water resources official said the initial phase of the plan includes three water harvesting dam projects and three land reclamation initiatives.
Montenegro Suspends Visa-Free Travel for Turkish Nationals After Violent Incident
Montenegro has temporarily suspended its visa-free program for Turkish citizens following a violent incident in Podgorica on October 25 that left a 25-year-old Montenegrin man injured and stirred public unrest. A Turkish and an Azerbaijani national accused of attacking the man were arrested as part of the ongoing investigation.
Prime Minister Milojko Spajic announced on X on October 27 that his government had urgently decided to suspend visa-free travel for Turkish citizens.
However, President Jakov Milatovic strongly criticized the move, warning that it could harm Montenegro’s relations with Turkey, negatively affect Montenegrin citizens in Turkey, and fuel anti-foreign sentiment at home.
The Montenegrin government is currently led by a coalition of pro-European, pro-Serb, and Albanian minority parties, with Prime Minister Spajic’s Europe Now Movement (PES) playing a central role.
On October 31, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met his Montenegrin counterpart Filip Ivanovic in Istanbul to discuss the suspension. During the meeting, Fidan reportedly emphasized that Ankara expects Montenegro to take all necessary measures to ensure the safety and rights of Turkish citizens in the country.
Afghanistan and Pakistan Resume Istanbul Talks After Failed Truce Effort
Negotiations between Afghanistan and Pakistan in Istanbul to secure a lasting truce after their deadliest border clashes ended without progress. The talks began on October 25 and stretched into an 18-hour session on October 27.
The announcement came on October 29, after state media in both countries blamed each other for the failure to reach a long-term ceasefire agreement.
However, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters on October 30 that Afghanistan and Pakistan have resumed peace talks in Istanbul at the request of mediators Turkey and Qatar to prevent further border clashes.
The Turkish Foreign Ministry issued a joint statement the same day, confirming that all parties agreed to maintain the ceasefire. The statement added that further details on implementing the truce will be discussed and decided at a principal-level meeting in Istanbul on November 6, 2025.
Australia Seeks to End Standoff with Turkey Over Hosting COP31 Climate Summit
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on November 2 that he had written a letter to Turkish President Erdogan in an effort to resolve the ongoing dispute over which country will host next year’s COP31 climate summit. When asked whether he believes Australia will ultimately host the event, Albanese said, “There’s no real process for finalising the matter. I’ve written to President Erdogan, and we’re continuing to engage.”
Australia and Turkey both submitted bids in 2022 to host the United Nations climate conference and have since refused to withdraw their candidacies. The summit’s host must be unanimously agreed upon by the 28 members of the Western Europe and Others Group (WEOG), as the event rotates through five regional groups.
In July, the UN urged both countries to resolve the stalemate, describing the delay as “unhelpful and unnecessary.”
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