ANALYSIS
"Erdogan Is Pushing Turkey Into The Same Minefield As Iran" by Melik Kaylan, Forbes
Erdogan’s public aspiration as leader of Islam threatens to displace the Saudis and infuriates them. And will ultimately anger Washington too by inciting a populist challenge to the Abraham Accords. To some degree, this positions Türkiye in the regional role previously played by Iran, with all the same enemies - and no allies. Long term, the country may well end up facing active dangers as did Iran. But with the leading media organs largely under Erdogan’s influence, the Turkish populace remains ignorant of the dangers to them of his foreign policies. Instead, they are regaled by images of his participation in summits with the Stans, his part in the recreation of pan-Turkist alliances across Central Asia, and his meetings with Trump.
"Europe’s Safe Framework: Political Obstructionism vs Strategic Inclusivity", by Tacan İldem, The Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom
The EU, for its part, must evolve from a transactional approach toward a strategic partnership that harnesses Türkiye’s potential while encouraging political alignment. Although accession talks are effectively frozen, Türkiye’s strategic relevance has not diminished. Its exclusion from consultations on the EU’s Black Sea Strategy illustrates the short-sightedness of current policy.
Excluding Türkiye—a crucial NATO Ally with robust industrial capacity, a pivotal geographic position, and an enduring commitment to transatlantic security—weakens Europe’s security and undermines the very notion of strategic autonomy. Europe’s defence posture will be credible only if it is built on an inclusive strategic vision, not on political obstruction.
POLITICS
Parliamentary Commission Backs First Visit to Imralı Island
Devlet Bahceli, head of Turkey’s far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and a key ally of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, said on November 18 that he is ready to visit imprisoned Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Ocalan on Imrali Island if a cross-party parliamentary commission decides not to proceed.
Bahceli made the comments during his party’s group meeting in parliament, saying that engaging with Ocalan is necessary for progress in Turkey’s renewed peace initiative with the outlawed PKK. He added that if the commission hesitates, he is willing to go himself along with three party colleagues.
On November 19, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan thanked Bahceli for what he called a “courageous, visionary, and guiding” stance, adding that the commission should decide whether a visit to Abdullah Ocalan is appropriate.
On November 21, lawmakers overseeing efforts to disarm the outlawed PKK agreed to make their first visit to the jailed militant leader, according to a parliamentary statement.
The motion passed with 32 members in favor, three opposed, and two abstaining. CHP lawmakers did not take part in the vote. Earlier in the session, CHP group deputy chair Murat Emir said the party would stay on the commission but would not send a representative to any delegation traveling to Imrali.
The delegation set to meet with Ocalan will include Huseyin Yayman from the ruling AK Party and Feti Yildiz from the MHP, while Gulistan Kilic Kocyigit will represent the DEM Party.
The commission has not yet set a date for the visit.
Demirtas Rejects Arinc’s Claims After Prison Visit
Former parliament speaker Bulent Arinc shared details of his meeting with former HDP Co-Chair Selahattin Demirtas at Edirne Prison in northwestern Turkey. Arinc claimed that Demirtas expressed a desire to meet with President Erdogan, saying he was not responsible for any deaths related to the Kobani incidents but held no grudges against Erdogan.
Arinc also said that Demirtas no longer plans to engage in politics. “From now on, I will not consider candidacy or politics, but I want to promise that I will do whatever I can for my country,” Arinc quoted him as saying.
However, jailed Kurdish politician Selahattin Demirtas denied Arinc’s statements on November 20, without mentioning his name. In a handwritten statement released through his lawyers, Demirtas said he entered prison with honour and would leave with honour, rejecting the remarks attributed to him as false. He stated that words he never said were being attributed to him.
“From now on, except for my own friends, I will not meet with politicians or lawyers,” Demirtas added.
Responding to the denial, Arinc insisted that his statements were accurate. “There is no distortion or fabrication in any of the statements I quoted,” he said, noting he felt hurt but not angry about Demirtas’s comments.
Government Approves Probe Into Ankara Mayor Over Concert Spending
On November 22, the Interior Ministry approved an investigation into Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas from the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) and his chief of staff, Nevzat Uzunoglu. They are accused of “misuse of public office” and “neglecting supervisory duties” related to concert expenses at the Ankara Metropolitan Municipality between 2021 and 2024.
Yavas criticized the decision on X, calling it a “double standard”. He said he is confident the courts will overturn the decision and plans to appeal to the Council of State.
Prosecutors claim that spending on 32 cultural events resulted in a loss of 154 million lira (about $3.7 million) to the municipality due to inflated contracts.
Former Tunceli Mayor Faces Criminal Complaint Over Hiring Practices
The Interior Ministry filed a criminal complaint on November 20 against the former mayor of the eastern city of Tunceli, accusing him of causing more than 86 million lira ($2 million) in losses to taxpayers through unauthorized hiring decisions.
Ministry inspectors began reviewing the Tunceli Municipality in December 2024 and completed their report in June 2025. According to their findings, Fatih Mehmet Macoglu, a high-profile figure from the Communist Party of Turkey (TKP), allegedly hired 145 workers without following legally required procedures during his 2019–2024 term. The wages for these employees reportedly accounted for 84 per cent of the municipality’s annual revenue.
Inspectors referred the case to the Tunceli Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office.
Macoglu rejected the accusations on November 20, saying he believes investigations targeting opposition-run municipalities are politically driven. He said personnel expenses have risen nationwide due to high inflation, while municipal revenues have remained relatively stagnant. He added that he would challenge the findings in court.
ECONOMY
Budget Deficit Reaches 1.44 Trillion Lira in First 10 Months
Turkey’s central government budget revenues rose by 49.1 percent in October compared to the same month last year, reaching 1.147 trillion lira. Budget expenditures increased by 43.4 percent to 1.370 trillion lira.
From January to October, budget revenues grew 48.1 percent year-on-year to 10.152 trillion lira, while expenditures rose 42.9 percent to 11.592 trillion lira. As a result, the budget deficit for the first 10 months totaled 1.440 trillion lira.
2026 Budget Shows Guarantee Payments Reaching 113 Billion TL
The Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure’s 2026 budget was reviewed by the Parliamentary Planning and Budget Committee, revealing the heavy burden that Public-Private Partnership (PPP) projects place on the public budget.
Between 2020 and the first half of 2025, guarantee payments under the “Transfers to Households and Businesses” item — which covers contractor payments for unmet guarantees — totaled more than 25.5 billion TL.
For 2026, the Ministry projected guarantee payments of 11.713 billion TL, while the General Directorate of Highways allocated 101.302 billion TL for similar obligations.
Combined, the two institutions set aside 113 billion TL for guarantee payments in 2026 alone.
Google to Invest $2 Billion in Turkey Cloud Project with Turkcell
Turkey’s Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz announced a $2 billion investment by Google for a cloud-computing project in partnership with local mobile operator Turkcell. Speaking at the Google Cloud Day event in Istanbul, Yilmaz said the project will operate in accordance with Turkish regulations. Google Cloud will contribute $2 billion, while Turkcell will invest $1 billion.
Turkcell announced the agreement with Google to the Turkish stock exchange last week. The company said it will serve as Google Cloud’s strategic partner and infrastructure provider for the country’s first “hyperscale” cloud region, which will include at least three separate zones and is expected to become operational between 2028 and 2029.
TPAO Plans Up to $4 Billion Sukuk Sale to Boost Energy Production
Turkey’s state energy company Turkiye Petrolleri AO (TPAO) plans to issue up to $4 billion in Islamic debt as it moves to expand its oil and gas production, marking the company’s first international sukuk offering.
Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar told Bloomberg on November 17 that the firm aims to sell the five-year sukuk to international investors by the end of the year.
He said the debut issuance follows non-deal roadshow meetings in London, Abu Dhabi, and Dubai, where officials briefed potential investors on TPAO’s financial outlook and key projects, including natural gas production in the Black Sea and oil development at the Gabar field in southeast Turkey.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Justice Ministry Data Shows Over 573,000 Convictions on Terrorism Charges Since 2009
In an article for a legal news website, lawyer Levent Maziliguney compiled statistics released by the Ministry of Justice on investigations and convictions under Article 314 of the Turkish Penal Code, which covers membership in an armed organisation.
According to the data, between 2009 and 2024, there were 2,346,350 terrorism investigation files, resulting in 414,239 convictions. Over the same period, a total of 3,292,921 individuals were investigated under Article 314, and 573,687 were convicted.
While the number of investigation files was 36,425 and convictions totaled 3,336 in 2015, the number of files rose to 155,014 following terrorism investigations targeting the Gulen Movement after the 2016 coup attempt. In 2017, the number of investigation files jumped to 457,423, with convictions rising to 36,927.
Education Ministry Reveals 27,732 Personnel Dismissed
The Ministry of National Education released data on teacher employment on November 16, showing that the number of teachers working in public educational institutions has reached 1,034,564.
The Ministry also reported that 34,795 personnel were dismissed following government decrees and decisions by the commission responsible for reviewing appeals. Of those dismissed, 7,063 were reinstated, leaving a net total of 27,732 purged ones.
FOREIGN POLICY
Netanyahu Says U.S. Unlikely to Approve F-35 Sales to Turkey
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on November 20 that he does not expect the United States to approve any transfer of F-35 fifth-generation fighter jets to Turkey. He warned that Israel would respond far more strongly to such a sale than to Washington’s agreement to sell the aircraft to Saudi Arabia.
Speaking to the Telegram channel Abu Ali Express, Netanyahu said, “I understand that this possibility is very remote, if it even exists at all. Our position regarding the Saudi issue and the F-35—Saudi Arabia is not a state of confrontation with us—would be that stance multiplied on steroids when it comes to selling F-35s to Turkey.”
Israeli Lawmakers Stage Protest at Turkish Consulate in East Jerusalem
Israeli Settlement Minister Orit Strock led a group of lawmakers and activists to Turkey’s Consulate General in occupied East Jerusalem, making provocative remarks amid rising political tensions.
Strock, joined by Likud MP Amit Halevi, gathered with supporters outside the consulate on November 21, where members of the group photographed the building and diplomatic vehicles.
Amit Segal, one of Israel’s leading journalists, had recently declared Turkey as “new Iran,” claiming the country represented a new threat to Israel following Iran.
Erdogan Urges Russia and Ukraine to Resume Talks in Istanbul
The Kremlin announced on November 18 that Russian representatives will not attend the Ukraine talks scheduled for November 19 in Turkey. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, “No, there will be no Russian representatives in Turkey tomorrow. For now, these contacts are happening without Russian participation.”
On November 19, Turkish President Erdogan called on Russia and Ukraine to return to negotiations in Istanbul, emphasising the need for renewed talks as fighting continues and civilian casualties rise.
Erdogan made the remarks at a news conference in Ankara following a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. He said Turkey aims to revive the Istanbul Process, a negotiation framework that previously brought Russian and Ukrainian delegations to Istanbul three times.
Erdogan also expressed openness to proposals from Moscow that could lead to a ceasefire or broader settlement. “In this context, we see value in the involvement of the United States,” he added.
Speaking after Erdogan, Zelensky thanked Turkey for its “principled stance” since the start of the war and noted that the two leaders also discussed joint defense industry projects.
Speaking at a press conference on November 23 following the G20 summit in South Africa, Erdogan announced that he will hold a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on November 24 to discuss peace efforts in Ukraine. Erdogan added that he will also urge Putin to restart the deal, ensuring the safe passage of grains via the Black Sea.
Turkish LPG Ship Hit During Attack on Ukraine’s Port of Izmail
A Turkish-flagged LPG ship, the ORINDA, was hit by an unidentified projectile during offloading operations at the Port of Izmail in southeastern Ukraine on November 17, sparking a fire on board, Turkey’s Directorate General of Maritime Affairs announced.
“All crew members have safely abandoned the vessel. There are no injuries,” the directorate said.
While the Turkish authorities did not specify the cause of the strike, the Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority said on Telegram that Russia had attacked Izmail with drones, damaging port infrastructure and several civilian ships, according to Newsweek.
Ukraine’s State Emergency Service, port officials and law enforcement teams were at the scene working to “eliminate the consequences of the attack,” the statement said.
Turkey to Host COP31 in 2026, Australia to Lead Negotiations
Turkey will host the COP31 climate summit in 2026, while Australia will lead negotiations, according to a document released at the COP30 summit in Brazil on November 21. Germany issued the statement after a meeting of the Western European and Others Group, which was responsible for choosing the 2026 host.
The agreement ends a long standoff between Turkey and Australia, with both countries seeking to host the U.N. climate talks. Under the deal, Turkey will provide the venue, and Australia will handle the negotiating duties.
At an event during the Group of 20 summit in Johannesburg on the evening of November 22, Turkish President Erdogan praised a deal with Australia to host next year’s U.N. climate summit, calling it a significant achievement for multilateralism.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese also confirmed on November 23 that a formal agreement had been reached for Turkey to host the COP31 climate summit in 2026, in line with the document released at the COP30 summit in Brazil.
Fidan: Border with Armenia Will Open Only After Azerbaijan Peace Deal
Turkey will open its border with Armenia only after Yerevan signs a final peace agreement with Azerbaijan, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told lawmakers on November 18. Speaking to parliament’s Planning and Budget Committee, Fidan warned that any move before a deal could threaten regional stability.
“If we normalize relations at this point, we will have taken away the biggest reason for Armenia to sign a peace agreement with Azerbaijan,” he said. “We may then face the possibility of a frozen conflict in the region, which we don’t want.” Fidan added that once Azerbaijan signs a final agreement, Turkey will also open its border gates with Armenia.
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