ANALYSIS
"The Cost of Deteriorating Turkey–Israel Relations" by Mustafa Enes Esen, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
The bilateral relationship between Turkey and Israel have experienced its ebbs and flows, but since the war in Gaza, the trajectory has remained mostly downward. The Trump administration has so far exerted pressure on Israel and Turkey to settle their differences. Yet this does not mean that the worsening of relations with Israel comes without costs for Turkey.
The divide between Turkey and Israel on regional issues is significant but still manageable. Failure to contain it could prompt Israel to further undermine Turkey’s security priorities and increase its costs, as illustrated by its recent arms sale to Cyprus. The same reasoning applies to Israel. Although Turkey refrains from direct confrontation, it may raise the costs of Israel’s regional policies. Tensions between Turkey and Israel have not yet reached a breaking point, but they need to factor in Ankara’s security calculations.
“Central Asia’s Search for New Partners” by Mehmet Demirbas, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
In the aftermath of the Ukraine War, Moscow’s influence in Central Asia has begun to fade, creating opportunities for new power dynamics in the region. Both the United States and China are seeking to fill the vacuum left by Russia’s diminishing role.
Russia tries to maintain its influence, but it is only a shadow of its former self, while China is shaping the region’s economic landscape through extensive networks. Meanwhile, the United States is attempting to forge a new balance. Turkey, having lost much of its soft power in the region, could also have been part of this emerging equation. However, following the setbacks of the past decade, Ankara has largely forfeited the opportunity to assume a leading role in Central Asia’s shifting geopolitical order.
"The New Struggle for Syria" by Mohamad Fawaz, The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
The downfall of Bashar al-Assad has reshaped Syria’s regional role, marking the end of an era defined by Iranian dominance and the beginning of a new contest to redraw the country’s geopolitical map. New regional relationships are emerging, shaped by Turkish and Gulf cooperation, in support of President Ahmad al-Sharaa. This is occurring under U.S. oversight, even as Israel opposes the new Syrian regime. At the heart of the evolving reality lies a central question: Where do the objectives of Israel and the backers of the Sharaa regime converge, and where do they diverge?
"The Indispensable Erdogan" by Gonul Tol, The New York Times
This is a time for realpolitik, and the world is prepared to do business with useful strongmen like Mr. Erdogan — even if that makes the struggle infinitely harder for pro-democracy voices in Turkey and elsewhere.
But Western nations should be wary of treating democracy in Turkey as a luxury rather than a necessity. Turks are not about to quietly surrender their right to choose their leaders. As long as they keep up the fight, Mr. Erdogan will find it difficult to consolidate his rule — no matter how much cover he gets from the West. And that is not just Mr. Erdogan’s problem, but an enduring one for the democracies that have staked so much on him.
POLITICS
Turkey Plans Law to Allow PKK Members and Civilians to Return from Iraq
Turkey is drafting legislation to allow thousands of Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) members and civilians to return from hideouts in northern Iraq as part of efforts to end the four-decade-long conflict, Reuters reported, citing a senior Middle East official.
According to the official, the plan under discussion would initially permit about 1,000 civilians and non-combatants to return, followed by around 8,000 fighters after individual screening. The official noted that Turkey has so far refused to accept roughly 1,000 senior and mid-level PKK figures, seeking instead to have them relocated to a third country, possibly in Europe.
The proposed legislation could be submitted to the Turkish parliament by the end of November, the official said.
Turkish Parliament Receives Files to Lift Immunity of 12 Lawmakers, Including CHP Leader
Turkey’s parliament on November 7 received 18 summaries of proceedings seeking to lift the parliamentary immunity of 12 lawmakers, including the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader Ozgur Ozel. Seven of the 18 files reportedly concern Ozel.
Other lawmakers facing potential immunity removal include Workers Party of Turkey (TIP) chairman Erkan Bas, as well as CHP group deputy chairs Ali Mahir Basarir and Murat Emir, along with several other deputies from the CHP, Good Party, and TIP.
Father and Son of Jailed Istanbul Mayor Questioned in Bribery Investigation
The father and son of jailed Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu were questioned by police on November 5 as part of an expanding investigation into alleged bribery and money laundering. Selim Imamoglu and Hasan Imamoglu provided statements at Istanbul police headquarters. Both are accused of involvement in bribery and money laundering linked to the case against the opposition mayor.
Selim Imamoglu, who owns a construction company in Croatia, was asked about the purpose and sources of money transfers to his firm. He told investigators that the funds came from his family's savings. Hasan Imamoglu also denied wrongdoing, stating that all transactions between him and his grandson were legitimate and based on family funds.
Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader Ozgur Ozel claimed that Mayor Imamoglu’s wife, Dilek Imamoglu, had her diplomatic passport revoked. Ozel said that he was informed of the revocation when Imamoglu intended to travel abroad to accept an award on behalf of her husband.
ECONOMY
Turkey’s Inflation Falls to 32.87 Percent in October, Hitting Four-Year Low
Inflation in Turkey eased slightly in October, reaching 32.87 percent — the lowest level in nearly four years, according to official data released on November 3. The annual rate had ticked up to 33.29 percent in September after 15 consecutive months of decline.
On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 2.55 percent in October.
Turkey’s Central Bank Reports $12.94 Billion Drop in Total Reserves
The Turkish Central Bank released its weekly money and banking statistics, showing a significant decline in total reserves. As of October 24, the Central Bank’s gross foreign exchange reserves fell by $6.435 billion to $80.838 billion, down from $87.273 billion on October 17. Gold reserves also dropped by $6.502 billion, from $111.169 billion to $104.667 billion.
Overall, the Central Bank's total reserves decreased by $12.936 billion over the week, falling from $198.442 billion to $185.506 billion.
Turkish Central Bank Raises 2025 Inflation Forecast
The Turkish Central Bank raised its 2025 year-end inflation forecast to a range of 31–33 percent on November 7, up from 25–29 percent, according to its fourth inflation report of the year.
Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan presented the report, stating that interim targets remain at 24 percent for 2025, 16 percent for 2026, and 9 percent for 2027.
The updated year-end inflation forecast for 2025 is 32 percent, compared to the previous estimate of 27 percent. The bank kept its 2026 forecast range unchanged at 13–19 percent.
Energy Minister Announces 92.4 Billion Cubic Meters of Natural Gas Discovery
Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar announced that Turkey discovered 92.4 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 2025, valued at $37 billion.
During the presentation of the ministry's budget to the parliamentary Commission, Bayraktar noted that ongoing exploration activities contributed to the gas discoveries, with the 75 billion cubic meters found in the Göktepe-3 well in May forming the largest part of the total 92.4 billion cubic meters.
He added that Turkey has identified the world’s second-largest single-site rare earth element resource, totaling 694 million tons, and has launched a pilot plant for production.
Turkey, Lockheed Martin to Hold New Talks Over F-16 Price Dispute
Turkey is set to hold another round of talks with defense giant Lockheed Martin Corp. to resolve a price dispute over a multibillion-dollar order for new F-16 fighter jets, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
Although the US Congress approved Turkey’s purchase of 40 Lockheed Martin F-16 Vipers in February 2024, Ankara has pushed back against the company’s demand that the buyer cover costs for upgrading the jets’ mission computers and funding new production lines to address order backlogs, the sources said.
According to the report, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan personally raised the issue with US President Donald Trump during their meeting at the White House in September.
Russia and Turkey Negotiate Renewal of Major Gas Supply Deals
Russia and Turkey are in talks to maintain gas supply volumes from Gazprom PJSC as they negotiate the renewal of two major pipeline contracts, Bloomberg reported, citing sources familiar with the matter.
The deals between Gazprom and Turkey’s state-owned company Botas, covering combined deliveries of up to 21.75 billion cubic meters per year, are set to expire on December 31. Both sides are reportedly aiming to keep annual flows at around 22 billion cubic meters.
According to Bloomberg calculations based on data from Turkey’s energy regulator EMRA, Gazprom shipped 21.6 billion cubic meters of gas to Turkey last year.
TikTok Report: Turkey’s Live Streaming Market to Exceed $5 Billion by 2030
TikTok’s report “The Future of Entertainment,” prepared in collaboration with global consulting firm Kearney, revealed strong growth projections for Turkey’s social media live streaming sector.
The report noted that Turkey’s live streaming market, valued at around $1.6 billion in 2024, is expected to surpass $5 billion by 2030. It also estimated that the sector will create 133,000 full-time jobs and 126,000 indirect positions nationwide by the end of the decade.
Turkish Court Seizes Assets of Two Investment Firms Over Market Manipulation Probe
A Turkish court has ordered the seizure of assets belonging to two investment companies, Hat Holding and Investco Holding, as part of a criminal investigation into alleged stock market manipulation and money laundering. The companies are accused of issuing false financial statements and manipulating market prices.
The Istanbul 3rd Criminal Court of Peace issued the ruling on November 4 following a request from the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office.
The court also appointed the Savings Deposit Insurance Fund (TMSF) to take over management of both companies while the investigation is ongoing.
Turkey will introduce stricter penalties and new regulations to combat market manipulation by “certain” investment funds, Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek announced on November 4. Speaking at the Turkish Capital Markets Congress in Istanbul, Simsek stated that the government plans to strengthen the regulatory framework and increase penalties for market abuse.
Business Closures and Bad Loans Rise Sharply in Turkey
The number of businesses closing in Turkey is on the rise, with bad loans surpassing 519 billion lira in the week of October 24, 2025. Temporary bankruptcy protection granted to companies between January and October 2025 increased by 72 percent compared to the same period last year, reaching 2,326.
According to data from the Konkordatotakip website, 1,351 companies received definitive bankruptcy protection decisions, while 1,061 were denied. In the first 10 months of 2025, 196 companies were declared bankrupt, bringing the total number of bankruptcies since 2018 to 803.
Commercial business closures also increased, rising from 31,453 in the first nine months of 2024 to 32,779 in the same period this year.
HUMAN RIGHTS
EU Report Criticizes Turkey for Democratic Backsliding and Lack of Progress on Reforms
The European Commission’s 2025 report on Turkey, released on November 4, said the country remains in the early stages of aligning with EU standards on the judiciary, corruption, and fundamental rights, noting “no progress” in most of these areas.
According to the report, Turkey’s human rights situation has worsened over the past year, with journalists, human rights defenders, opposition politicians, and lawyers still imprisoned under counterterrorism laws. It warned that political pressure on the judiciary continues and criticized ongoing restrictions on freedom of expression and the media.
The Commission also stated that Turkey has made no progress in meeting six of the criteria required for visa liberalization.
In response, the Turkish Foreign Ministry criticized the report, calling its findings “biased, prejudiced, and baseless.” The ministry stated that the assessment was politically motivated and contradicted efforts to establish a “positive agenda” with the EU.
On November 5, Nacho Sanchez Amor, the European Parliament’s rapporteur on Turkey, said the country has reached “an unprecedented low” in democratic standards. He noted that Turkey’s democratic decline has deepened over the past year, particularly regarding the rule of law, amid increasing pressure on the opposition and the media, citing the continued detention of journalists and political figures.
Turkey’s Prison Population Reaches 428,000, Exceeding Capacity by Over 40%
Turkey’s prison population climbed to 428,267 in November 2025, according to official data, exceeding official capacity by 123,381 inmates. This represents an overcapacity rate of 40.5%, highlighting ongoing overcrowding issues in the country’s correctional facilities.
Bahceli Backs Demirtas’s Release After ECtHR Ruling Becomes Final
The European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR), which has twice ruled that jailed Kurdish politician Selahattin Demirtas’s rights were violated and called for his immediate release, rejected Ankara’s final appeal on November 3. The court upheld its July 8 ruling that found Demirtas’s renewed detention in connection with the Kobani trial legally unjustified.
Asked about the court’s decision on November 4, Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahceli said, “The legal path has been completed. His release would be beneficial for Turkey.”
DEM Party Co-chair Tuncer Bakirhan welcomed Bahceli’s comments, saying that not only Demirtas but all “political prisoners” should be released as part of a democratic peace process.
Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader Ozgur Ozel also praised Bahceli’s statement, calling it “very auspicious.” During his party’s group meeting, Ozel added, “We, too, owe an apology. As today’s CHP leader, I apologize to the entire nation for that time.”
Demirtas thanked both Bahceli and Ozel for their “courage” and said Bahceli had “broken taboos” in a handwritten message shared from prison the same day.
ECtHR Rejects Turkey’s Appeal on Retrial Ruling for Gulen-Linked Convictions
The European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) on November 3 rejected Turkey’s appeal to refer to the Grand Chamber its July 22 ruling that allows the retrial of 239 people convicted on terrorism charges for alleged links to the Gulen movement.
The July 22 decision permits the reopening of criminal proceedings if requested within one year.
The ECtHR’s latest decision is expected to impact more than 10,000 pending cases, paving the way for appeals and reassessments of defenses.
Security Forces Arrest 67 in Nationwide Crackdown on Gulen Movement
Turkish Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya announced on November 7 that courts have arrested 67 people out of 178 detained in nationwide operations over the past two weeks as part of an intensified crackdown on the Gulen movement.
The raids were carried out across 45 provinces, including major cities such as Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir.
Former HDP MP Huda Kaya Surrenders to Prison, Released on Probation Same Day
Former HDP MP Huda Kaya, whose 1.5-year prison sentence was finalized, surrendered to prison on the morning of November 3.
The sentence reportedly stemmed from an incident in 2022 when Kaya was visiting her jailed son, Cihad Ebrari, in prison. The court had sentenced Kaya to 1.5 years in jail following a lawsuit alleging she was “carrying a phone in her bag.”
Kaya’s lawyer later announced that she was released on probation the same day.
Turkish Court Bans Six Journalists from Traveling Abroad in Imamoglu-Linked Probe
A Turkish court banned six journalists from traveling abroad on November 6 after police questioned them as suspects in an investigation connected to jailed Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu.
The journalists include Rusen Cakir, editor-in-chief of Medyascope; Yavuz Oghan, media advisor for the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) presidential campaign; Asli Aydintasbas, Brookings Institution fellow; Soner Yalcin, founder of OdaTV; Batuhan Colak, editor-in-chief of Aykiri; and Saban Sevinc, editor-in-chief of Bizim TV.
The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office said they were summoned over allegations of “spreading false information publicly” and “aiding a criminal organization.” After providing their statements, all six were released under the travel ban.
FOREIGN POLICY
Egypt and Turkey Step Up Military Support for Sudanese Army After El-Fasher Capture
Following the capture of El-Fasher by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the Egyptian and Turkish armies have begun cooperating in Sudan, Middle East Eye reported. A high-level Egyptian security official stated that the coordination aims to assist the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) in containing the RSF's territorial gains and stabilizing Darfur.
A Turkish source with direct knowledge of the matter told Middle East Eye that Turkey plans to increase its support for the SAF. “We were already preparing to send more systems, but the El-Fasher attacks have only strengthened our resolve,” the source said.
Since last year, Turkey has supplied the SAF with military drones, air-to-surface missiles, and command centers. The Turkish source confirmed that this support will continue, but added that Ankara cannot provide air defense systems because of limited quantities of locally produced equipment.
Turkey Lifts Asset Freeze on Syrian President After UN Decision
Turkey has lifted its asset freeze on Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and Interior Minister Anas Hasan Khattab following a recent United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution, according to a presidential decree published in the Official Gazette on November 8. The UNSC approved the resolution on November 6, officially removing both officials from the sanctions list.
The presidential decree signed by President Erdogan stated that the restrictions on “Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani [Sharaa] and Anas Hasan Khattab, previously identified as linked to ISIL and al-Qaeda,” were lifted.
Following the UN’s move, the US Treasury Department also delisted the two Syrian officials. Al-Sharaa is scheduled to meet with US President Donald Trump at the White House on November 10.
Turkey Issues Arrest Warrants for Netanyahu and Senior Israeli Officials
The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor has issued detention warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and 36 other top officials on charges of genocide and crimes against humanity related to Israel’s military campaign in Gaza and the interception of the Gaza-bound Global Sumud Flotilla.
Among those named are Defense Minister Israel Katz, National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, and Chief of General Staff Herzi Halevi.
Israel dismissed the move as a “public relations stunt.” Foreign Minister Gideon Saar wrote on X that “Israel firmly rejects, with contempt, the latest PR stunt by the tyrant, President Erdogan.”
Afghanistan-Pakistan Peace Talks End Without Progress
Peace talks between Afghanistan and Pakistan concluded in a stalemate on November 7, with the Taliban government accusing Islamabad of taking an “irresponsible and uncooperative” stance.
Delegations from the two neighboring countries met in Turkey on November 6. Despite the lack of progress, Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said the ceasefire will hold. Mujahid also expressed gratitude to Qatar and Turkey for their mediation efforts.
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