ANALYSIS
"Ten Years Later… What Do We Know About the Night That Changed Turkey?" by Hasim Tekines, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
Challenging the official coup attempt narrative is a red line in Turkey. Revelations about the night could shake the foundations of the current political order. This explains the lack of interest among the politicians and journalists in the coup trials. Nevertheless, the path to return democracy and rule of law for Turkey is still hidden in the darkness of that night.
"How Regional Chaos Is Helping Strengthen Turkey’s Strategic Position" by Ben Holland, Bloomberg
It’s by far the region’s top tourist destination, and now finds itself near enough to a war zone that visitors could take fright. Bloomberg Economics estimates revenues could be clipped this year by anywhere between $10 billion and $24 billion, depending on the Iran war’s trajectory.
Adding up these blows, the International Monetary Fund — which has been slashing its 2026 growth forecasts for most of the world since the Iran war began — gave Turkey the second-biggest downgrade among G20 countries, exceeded only by Saudi Arabia.
It’s a reminder that Turkey’s strategic location – whether best characterized as bridge, hub or crossroads — comes with a downside.
"Turkey's hydro surge helps extend Europe's gas demand slump" by Gavin Maguire, Reuters
Hydro's share of total utility-supplied electricity climbed to 33.2% from 20.8% a year earlier, and the highest since January to May in 2020. Alongside record solar and wind output, the surge in hydro generation enabled clean energy sources to account for more than 60% of Turkey's electricity mix for the first time, marking a key energy transition milestone for the fast-growing economy.
And the repercussions extend far beyond Turkey's borders. As Europe's fourth-largest gas-consuming nation, according to the Energy Institute, Turkey's pullback in gas demand is helping reinforce a broader regional trend of weaker gas use and stronger renewable generation.
Turkey's lower gas use has also allowed the country to inject more gas into storage facilities instead of burning it in power plants, which is helping to limit Europe's broader gas inventory drawdown so far in 2026.
"How the Cyprus Question Continues to Shape EU-Turkey Security Cooperation" by Georgios Nicolaou, Modern Diplomacy
Without a settlement that addresses Cyprus’s security concerns and provides credible security guarantees, Nicosia is unlikely to alter its position on Turkey’s participation in initiatives such as SAFE. Whether this change depends less on Ankara’s growing strategic value than on developments within the UN-led process itself. Fitto’s appointment signals that Brussels is prepared to invest more in creating conditions for a settlement. However, both Turkey and Turkish Cypriot leadership have responded with scepticism rather than welcome: Ankara has described the appointment as an internal EU matter and repeated the argument that the EU lost its impartiality when it admitted Cyprus in 2004, while the Turkish Cypriot side has flatly refused it. As long as the Cyprus Question remains unresolved, Europe’s strategic need for Turkey will continue to coexist with the political limitations imposed by one of the European Union’s longest-running disputes.
POLITICS
Ozel Says New Party Could Emerge by Early August
Main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) ousted leader Ozgur Ozel said on July 15 that his allies have started preparations for a possible new political party, though they will wait for ongoing court proceedings before making any formal move.
Ozel told local media that courts could decide within weeks on an appeal against the ruling that removed him from the CHP leadership, as well as on a request to convene an extraordinary party congress.
If the courts block those efforts, Ozel said his camp could move ahead with a new party. “A formal step could be taken towards the end of July or the beginning of August,” Ozel said when asked about the timing of a possible launch.
Ankara District Mayor Jailed Pending Trial in Corruption Probe
A Turkish court jailed the opposition mayor of Ankara’s Cankaya district and 23 others pending trial in a corruption investigation targeting the municipality.
Last week, the Ankara Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office issued detention warrants for 36 people, including Cankaya Mayor Huseyin Can Guner, as part of a probe into allegations that suspects formed or joined a criminal organization, paid or accepted bribes, and rigged public tenders.
Guner denied the accusations in his testimony and said prosecutors had not questioned him about bribery or forming a criminal organization. “There is no concrete allegation against me,” he said.
Thirty suspects appeared before the court. It ordered the pretrial detention of 24, including Guner, while releasing six others under judicial supervision and banning them from leaving the country.
Turkey’s Interior Ministry later suspended Guner from office.
Senior PKK Figure Says Only Ocalan Can Carry Out Group’s Disbandment
Duran Kalkan, a senior figure in the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), said only the group’s imprisoned founder, Abdullah Ocalan, can implement its announced disbandment and persuade armed members to accept the transition.
Kalkan told Medyascope Editor-in-Chief Rusen Cakir in an interview published on July 17 from the Qandil Mountains of northern Iraq that the PKK’s current leadership could not carry out the move on its own. “No one other than Ocalan can make the PKK take such a decision,” Kalkan said. “No one else can persuade this fighting force in a process like this.”
He also warned that the organization would not disperse while Turkey delayed the legal framework needed for the transition.
Kalkan added that the PKK would not launch armed operations against Turkey unless a new congress adopted another strategic shift. He stated that the group’s forces would defend themselves if attacked, but added that no fighting would occur unless they were attacked.
Ruling Party Moves to Scrap Sentence Reductions for Minors
The ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) submitted legislation to parliament that would allow judges to sentence minors aged 15 to 17 to life or aggravated life imprisonment for certain killings and serious injury offenses.
The bill removes the mandatory sentence reductions currently granted to defendants based on their age.
AK Party parliamentary group deputy chair Leyla Sahin Usta announced the 18-article bill on July 14, noting that parliament could enact the measure before its summer recess begins at the end of July. The proposal amends seven existing laws.
Under the new rules, judges could withhold age-based reductions for any minor convicted of intentional homicide or intentional injury resulting in serious harm.
The legislation requires courts to evaluate the degree of intent, the motive, the manner of the offense, and the defendant's prior criminal record before determining the final sentence.
ECONOMY
OECD Calls Turkey’s Foreign Bribery Enforcement Record ‘Abysmal’
The OECD has described Turkey’s foreign bribery enforcement record as “abysmal,” saying the country has never secured a conviction and has opened no new investigations since its 2024 review.
The report, adopted by the OECD Working Group on Bribery during its plenary meeting and published on July 9, found that Turkey had fully implemented 10 recommendations, partly implemented 12 and failed to implement 49.
The Working Group said Turkey had shown no sign that it would enact whistleblower protections, adopt measures allowing companies to face liability without the conviction of an individual, or create a system to send foreign bribery allegations to prosecutors without delay.
The review also found that Turkey had taken no action to protect auditors who report suspected bribery or to increase investigations into money laundering linked to bribery.
French Court Rejects Turkey's Bid to Overturn Iraq Oil Award
A French court rejected Turkey’s attempt to partially annul an international arbitration award stemming from Ankara’s handling of Iraqi Kurdish oil exports.
Deniz Yavuzyilmaz, a deputy chair of the CHP, announced the March 10 ruling by the Paris Court of Appeal on July 13 and accused the government of concealing the outcome from the public.
A copy of the decision shared by Yavuzyilmaz showed that the court dismissed Turkey’s application to partially annul a February 2023 award issued by an International Chamber of Commerce tribunal. The court also ordered Turkey to pay Iraq 200,000 euros in legal costs.
“Now the countdown has begun for payment of the $1.471 billion arbitration penalty,” Yavuzyilmaz said on X, adding that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and officials from the ruling AK Party should cover the amount rather than taxpayers.
Turkish Farmers Buckle Under $44 Billion Debt Load, CHP Lawmaker Says
CHP Nigde lawmaker Omer Fethi Gurer said Turkey’s agricultural sector now owes banks and financial institutions more than 1.439 trillion lira, warning that farmers face mounting pressure as debt, enforcement actions and rising production costs squeeze the countryside.
Gurer said creditors have listed farmers’ land, tractors and livestock for sale through enforcement proceedings across several provinces. “This month, creditors listed 77 tractors and 4,509 fields for sale through enforcement proceedings. They also listed 12 heads of cattle,” he said.
He said the debt burden has left many farmers unable to sustain production, while consumers continue to pay high food prices. “Producers cannot earn a profit, consumers buy at inflated prices, and intermediaries collect the gains,” Gurer said.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Turkey Detains Nearly 1,000 on Coup Attempt Anniversary
Turkish authorities detained 968 people in nationwide operations on the anniversary of the July 15 coup attempt.
Justice Minister Akin Gurlek and Interior Minister Mustafa Ciftci announced the detentions at a joint press conference, saying prosecutors had issued arrest warrants for hundreds of people.
Security forces carried out the operations across all 81 provinces, with Ankara, Izmir and Istanbul recording the highest number of detentions.
Turkish Court Jails AKUT Founder Over ‘Controlled Coup’ Post
An Istanbul court jailed AKUT founder Nasuh Mahruki pending trial on July 17 over a social media post in which he alleged that authorities had detected the July 15, 2016, coup attempt in advance and allowed it to unfold.
Mahruki made the remarks in a post marking the 10th anniversary of the failed coup. He described the events as a “controlled coup attempt” and claimed authorities treated the crisis as an opportunity to change Turkey’s system of government.
He also accused the United States of involvement, saying it had “made Erdogan king and checkmated the Turkish people.”
The Bakirkoy Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office in Istanbul opened an investigation into the post. Police detained Mahruki on July 15 after he returned to Turkey from South Africa.
The court ordered his pretrial detention on a charge of “inciting the public to hatred and hostility or degrading the public".
Turkish Court Jails ‘Marilyn Monroe of Mardin’ Over Coup Post
A Turkish court ordered the arrest of a woman known locally as the “Marilyn Monroe of Mardin” pending trial over an Instagram post questioning the July 15, 2016, coup attempt.
Police detained Melek Akarmut, 50, in the southeastern province of Mardin after she shared a post that read: “The unanswered questions of July 15: Where is parliament’s July 15 report? A coup — if you buy that.”
Authorities referred Akarmut to the Mardin Courthouse after police questioning. A judge later ordered her pretrial detention on a charge of “publicly disseminating misleading information,” and officials sent her to a prison in Mardin.
Akarmut earned the local nickname “Marilyn Monroe of Mardin” for her blond hair and makeup inspired by the American film star.
FOREIGN POLICY
Turkey to Join Defence Security and Resilience Bank as Founding Member
Turkey has informed Canada that it will join the Defence Security and Resilience Bank as a founding member, a Turkish official told Reuters on July 13.
The confirmation followed mixed signals from Ankara over its participation. Defence ministry sources said over the weekend that Turkey continued to evaluate whether to join the initiative, after Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said at a NATO summit in Ankara last week that nine countries, including Turkey, had committed to the bank.
Turkey Accuses EU of Bias in Strategic Threat Assessment
Turkey accused the European Union of ignoring its candidate status and taking a biased approach to the eastern Mediterranean and Cyprus in a new assessment of threats facing the bloc.
Foreign Ministry spokesperson Oncu Keceli said on July 17 that the EU document, “Common Understanding: The Threats and Challenges We Face: Assessment of the EU’s Strategic Environment,” included references to Turkey that lacked “a strategic and fair approach.”
Keceli said the document’s failure to address Turkey as a membership candidate showed the EU had failed to develop “a vision for a shared future with Turkey.”
He also accused the EU of making “baseless allegations” concerning the eastern Mediterranean and said the language showed that the bloc remained under the influence of “a biased and distorted understanding.”
Ukraine Ratifies Free Trade Agreement with Turkey
Ukraine’s parliament ratified a free trade agreement with Turkey, marking what Kyiv described as a major step in relations between the two countries.
The Verkhovna Rada approved the agreement on July 14 with 236 votes, 10 more than the minimum required for passage. The two countries signed the accord in Kyiv on February 3, 2022.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha called the ratification a “major milestone” in bilateral ties in a statement on X.
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