ANALYSIS
"Would Turks in Iran Pursue Independence Amid Turmoil? A Framework Analysis" by Mehmet Akif Koc, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
Azerbaijani Turks—one of Iran’s largest and most influential communities—do not exhibit a sustained separatist political consciousness. This is precisely because they are considered not as a “minority,” but as a central constituent of both Shiism and the Iran-Shahr framework. From this perspective, separatist rhetoric appears largely externally generated, lacking elite endorsement and mass societal support, and circulating primarily at the symbolic and emotional level.
From an analytical standpoint, five conditions are necessary for a separatist project to succeed in Iran: a) a strong and widely shared separatist identity, b) substantial weakening of the central state, c) the presence of an attractive alternative state, d) sustained international support, and e) organized or armed capacity.
The relative presence of only the first condition, while the remaining factors remain weak or absent, undermines the plausibility of separatist scenarios. That said, following developments in June 2025 and January 2026, it is plausible that subsequent phases of U.S.–Israeli pressure on Iran may include efforts to mobilize peripheral ethnic and sectarian communities against the central authority.
"Tom Barrack’s Not-So-Excellent Syrian Adventure" by The Editorial Board, Wall Street Journal
President Trump retains the sanctions leverage to impose a lasting cessation of violence on the Syrian regime of Ahmed al-Sharaa, which has bludgeoned the SDF. But the U.S. hasn’t done so. Policy is being led by Tom Barrack, the U.S. Ambassador to Turkey who still doubles as U.S. envoy to Syria. Vanquishing Kurdish forces is Turkey’s priority, and Ankara is Mr. Sharaa’s main backer.
"Turkey in the Saudi-Pakistan defence pact: A new regional order?", by Francesco Salesio Schiavi, The New Arab
For Ankara, the attraction of the Saudi–Pakistan pact lies less in automatic defence commitments than in strategic signalling and flexibility. Joining or loosely associating with the pact would allow Turkey to widen its regional security footprint without severing ties to NATO or locking itself into binding obligations.
Turkish officials increasingly view Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman as a regional actor with privileged access to the White House - an asset Ankara believes could help soften frictions with Washington at a time when Turkey’s position within NATO remains contested. Together, they provide a framework through which Ankara can hedge against strategic uncertainty without assuming binding defence obligations.
POLITICS
Bahceli Dismisses Early Election Calls Citing Regional Instability
Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahceli said an early election is neither possible nor appropriate under current conditions, citing regional instability and the need to preserve political stability in Turkey.
Speaking to a TV channel, Bahceli rejected the ongoing debate over an early vote. "In this period, an early election is not possible; nor is it the right course," he said. "Turkey is surrounded by a ring of fire. Protecting stability is essential."
Diyarbakir Bans Rally Calling for Release of PKK Leader Ocalan
The governor’s office in the southeastern city of Diyarbakir banned a planned rally calling for the release of imprisoned Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Ocalan, citing concerns over public order and security amid rising tensions linked to developments in Syria.
In a statement issued on January 22, the Diyarbakir Governor’s Office announced that it would prohibit all public gatherings, including demonstrations, marches, and press statements, across the province from January 23 to January 26.
The rally, organized by the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party), was scheduled to take place on January 25 at Istanbul Square in Diyarbakir’s Yenishehir district. Organizers had originally planned the event for January 4 but postponed it due to adverse weather conditions.
Turkey Identifies Suspects After Flag Lowered at Syria Border
A Turkish flag was lowered from its flagpole at the Turkey-Syria border on January 20, following pro-Kurdish protests in the border town of Nusaybin in Turkey's southeastern Mardin province. Demonstrations erupted over clashes in northeastern Syria between Syria's transitional government and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
Later the same day, DEM Party co-chairs Tulay Hatimogullari and Tuncer Bakirhan condemned the incident, saying disrespect toward the Turkish flag was unacceptable and contradicted the party's stance. "We categorically reject the flag incident that took place on the Nusaybin-Qamishli border," they said in a joint statement.
In a written statement on January 21, Devlet Bahceli, leader of Turkey's far-right Nationalist Movement Party, warned that rising tensions tied to developments in Syria could derail Turkey's peace process. "Exhausting patience and provoking nerves will bring no benefit to anyone," Bahceli stated, adding, "The extended hand could easily be replaced by a raised fist."
Turkey's Defense Ministry said it has identified the suspects involved. Rear Adm. Zeki Akturk, the ministry's spokesperson, told reporters on January 22 at a weekly briefing in Ankara that a group he described as PKK sympathizers attempted an illegal border crossing and targeted the Turkish flag in a former customs area.
Akturk said relevant state institutions had identified those responsible and had launched legal and administrative action. He added that authorities opened an internal investigation immediately after the incident.
PKK Leader Says Group Will Not Abandon Kurds in Syria
PKK will "never abandon" Kurds in Syria, a senior leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) said on January 20, following clashes in northeastern Syria between Damascus and the SDF, according to the Firat news agency.
Murat Karayilan, a senior PKK figure, said the group would continue to support Kurds in Syria despite the escalating conflict. "You should know that we will not leave you alone. Whatever the cost, we will never leave you alone," Karayilan was quoted as saying. "As the entire Kurdish people and as the movement, we will do whatever is necessary."
Court Upholds Istanbul University Decision to Revoke Imamoglu's Degree
An administrative court has rejected a lawsuit filed by Ekrem Imamoglu, Istanbul Mayor and presidential candidate of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), seeking to overturn the cancellation of his university degree.
The Istanbul 5th Administrative Court unanimously dismissed the case, upholding the Istanbul University Board of Directors' decision to revoke Imamoglu's undergraduate diploma.
In its reasoned ruling, the court said the university acted lawfully after identifying what it described as "gross and open illegality" in Imamoglu's transfer process. The court added that, given the "intensity, level, and nature" of the illegality, the administration had the authority to revoke the degree at any time regardless of how much time had passed, citing established legal precedents on "openly erroneous" administrative acts.
Istanbul District Mayor Sentenced to Six Years on Terrorism Conviction
A Turkish court sentenced Ahmet Ozer, the mayor of Istanbul's Esenyurt district and a member of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), to more than six years in prison on a terrorism conviction. The sentencing comes months after authorities ordered his release pending trial.
The court hearing took place on January 23 at the Marmara Prison complex in Silivri and was attended by Ozer's family, CHP rank-and-file members, and party leader Ozgur Ozel. During the hearing, Ozer denied all accusations against him, stating that he had never been involved with any militant organization and that no evidence linked him to the PKK.
Following the sentencing, Devlet Bahceli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), criticized the decision, saying, "This decision has no basis in the public conscience and no reasonable justification."
ECONOMY
Central Bank Cuts Key Interest Rate to 37 Percent
The Turkish central bank cut its key interest rate to 37 percent on January 22 as annual inflation continues to decline. At a policy meeting, the bank "decided to reduce the policy rate [one-week repo auction rate] from 38 percent to 37 percent," according to its statement.
The bank said the underlying trend of inflation declined in December. While leading indicators suggest that monthly consumer inflation strengthened in January, driven primarily by food prices, the bank noted that the rise in the underlying trend of inflation "remains limited."
Fitch Revises Turkey Outlook to Positive
Fitch revised Turkey’s outlook to "positive" from "stable" on January 23 and affirmed the country’s long-term foreign-currency rating at BB-, citing a faster-than-expected buildup in foreign exchange reserves that has eased external vulnerabilities.
"Turkey's strengthened reserves and disciplined policies reflect meaningful progress in reducing economic vulnerabilities," Fitch said in its report.
Parliament Raises Minimum Monthly Pension to 20,000 Lira
Turkey's parliament approved legislation raising the country's minimum monthly pension to 20,000 Turkish lira. The bill, adopted late on January 22, increases the minimum pension from 16,881 lira, an 18.4% rise. The new level will apply retroactively from January and is expected to affect nearly 4.9 million retirees.
Main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) leader Ozgur Ozel said his party will challenge the law at the Constitutional Court, arguing that it violates constitutional guarantees, including the right to a dignified life and the principle of equality.
Labor unions also criticized the measure. Turk-Is, Turkey's largest trade union confederation, said the new pension level remains well below the hunger threshold, which it estimates at more than 30,000 lira per month for a family of four, excluding housing, energy, and transportation costs.
Turkey Energy Company in Talks with Chevron on Joint Oil and Gas Exploration
Turkey's state energy company is in talks with Chevron Corp on a potential partnership to explore for oil and gas, Bloomberg reported, citing a Turkish official familiar with the discussions. The possible agreement would follow Ankara's January deal with ExxonMobil Corp. for joint exploration in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean.
Turkish Petroleum Corp, known as TPAO, would work with Chevron on seismic studies and drilling, the official said, requesting anonymity because the talks remain private.
"Chevron has a diverse exploration and production portfolio globally and continues to assess potential opportunities," a Chevron spokesperson told Bloomberg. "As a matter of policy, we do not comment on commercial matters."
HUMAN RIGHTS
Turkey Restricts Dozens of X Accounts Citing Security Concerns
Turkish authorities have restricted access to dozens of X accounts belonging to journalists and media organizations, citing "national security and public order." The move followed recent developments in Syria and protests in Turkey tied to clashes between Syrian government forces and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
Data published by the Freedom of Expression Association's (IFOD) EngelliWeb initiative shows that the blocked accounts include journalists with hundreds of thousands of followers, as well as Kurdish- and Turkish-language news outlets, including the Mezopotamya News Agency.
Authorities have not publicly explained which posts prompted the restrictions and have not disclosed the individual court decisions that ordered the blocks.
Turkey Imprisons 6 over Alleged Membership in Gulen Movement
Turkish authorities have taken into custody a former provincial police chief and a police officer who had evaded capture after being convicted of alleged membership in the Gulen movement. A court ordered their arrest, and officials transferred both to prison to serve sentences of more than six years each.
Separately, a Turkish court on January 23 ordered the arrest of five people in Tekirdag province, including four suspects accused of links to the Gulen movement.
Police stopped two vehicles on the Tekirdag-Istanbul highway and detained seven people. Authorities said four of them, accused of Gulen ties, were preparing to leave the country, while three others allegedly helped them. Two of the detainees were released under judicial supervision.
Nurse Detained in Kocaeli Over Participation in Syria Solidarity Campaign
DEM Party Kocaeli deputy Omer Faruk Gergerlioglu said a nurse in Kocaeli has been detained after participating in a social media campaign launched to draw attention to events in northern Syria, in which users posted images of braided-hair as a show of support.
Authorities initiated both judicial and administrative investigations against the nurse following her participation in the campaign. Gergerlioglu revealed that the nurse was taken into custody.
FOREIGN POLICY
Reuters: Closed-Door Talks Paved Way for Syrian Advance Against SDF
The Syrian government’s rapid takeover of territory long held by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) emerged from a series of high-level meetings in Damascus, Paris, and Iraq earlier this month, nine sources familiar with the closed-door talks told Reuters.
The previously unreported accounts, shared on condition of anonymity, indicate that the United States did not block an operation that has significantly altered Syria’s balance of power, to the detriment of a former ally.
According to a Syrian official, Damascus also received a separate message from Turkey stating that Washington would approve an operation against the SDF provided that Kurdish civilians were protected.
Report: Turkey Radar Deployment in Damascus Could Affect Israeli Air Operations
Turkey has deployed an advanced radar system at Damascus International Airport, a move that could limit Israel's freedom of action in Syrian airspace, The Jerusalem Post reported.
The HTRS-100 air traffic control radar, produced by Turkish defense firm ASELSAN, can detect and track aerial targets around airports and uses advanced technology to maximize reliability and performance, a Turkish expert said.
Syria's General Directorate of Civil Aviation and Air Transport denied that the radar has a military function. In a written statement issued on January 21, the agency said the system supports only civil air navigation and air traffic management.
Syrian officials stated that the installation aims to modernize the country's aviation infrastructure, improve flight safety, and strengthen airspace management.
Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt Join Trump's "Board of Peace"
Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Qatar have accepted invitations to join U.S. President Donald Trump's "Board of Peace," the Saudi foreign ministry said in a joint statement that also included the United Arab Emirates.
The statement added that each country will sign accession documents in accordance with its legal procedures.
Erdogan, Trump Discuss Syria, Gaza and Islamic State in Phone Call
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke by phone with U.S. President Donald Trump on January 20 to discuss developments in Syria and Gaza, according to a statement from the Turkish presidency.
Erdogan said Turkey was closely monitoring events in Syria and emphasized that Syria's unity, stability, and territorial integrity remain important for Turkey, the statement said.
The leaders also discussed the fight against the Islamic State militant group and the situation of Islamic State prisoners held in Syrian jails, the presidency added.
Erdogan Opposes Foreign Intervention in Iran During Call with Pezeshkian
Turkish President Erdogan said Turkey does not support any scenario involving foreign intervention in Iran during a phone call with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, according to Turkey's presidency.
The Communications Directorate announced the call on January 22, noting that the leaders focused on recent developments in Iran, bilateral ties, and broader regional issues. Erdogan stated that Turkey closely follows developments in Iran and attaches great importance to Iran's peace and stability.
Erdogan added that Ankara has never viewed foreign intervention in Iran positively. He emphasized that preventing further escalation in the region also serves Turkey's interests, according to the statement.
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