ANALYSIS
“What the SDF’s Miscalculations Meant for Turkey and Syria” by Mustafa Enes Esen, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
Local tribes taking control of cities, armed convoys coming under fire from settlements they had controlled with ease until yesterday, the liberation of prisoners from jails—these are scenes not from the final days of Assad in Syria a year ago, but from the clashes between the Syrian army and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) over the past few days.
The Syrian army has recently made rapid advances after the lines of the SDF collapsed. The ceasefire signed on January 18 between Damascus and the SDF was not the product of prolonged bargaining or mutual compromise. It was imposed by developments on the ground that had already stripped the SDF of its bargaining power. As such, the ceasefire agreement formalizes the collapse of the March 10 deal and largely marks the end of the SDF’s ability to shape outcomes in Syria.
The terms of the agreement largely correspond to positions Turkey has articulated for years regarding the SDF. Ankara has welcomed the January 18 agreement in Syria. Yet, this agreement is also likely to have ramifications for Turkey’s domestic politics and the so-called peace process with the PKK.
"Syria’s Fate Still Hinges on Trump" by Hasim Tekines, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
This quick victory in Aleppo gave Ankara and Damascus clear advantages. It ended the last SDF/Asayish pockets in Aleppo city, delivering a final blow to any Kurdish hopes of influence in the northwest. While Aleppo delivered a clean tactical win, the operations could continue in other SDF pockets west of the Euphrates. It also reminded everyone of the power balance on the ground: Syrian forces, with Turkish backing, could act decisively if U.S. protection doesn't apply.
The operation exposed the limits of international support for the SDF. U.S. Ambassador to Turkey and Special Envoy for Syria, Tom Barrack, met al-Sharaa in Damascus and urged "maximum restraint," an immediate end to hostilities, and a return to dialogue. He emphasized that Marco Rubio's team was ready to mediate. Nonetheless, Washington offered no military involvement in Aleppo, consistent with its focus on east-of-the-Euphrates areas. Israel was silent too, despite recent sympathetic statements toward Syrian Kurds and concerns over growing Turkish influence. No airstrikes or aid materialized for the trapped fighters.
"Debate: Will Hezbollah have a new partner in Turkey?", contribution by Gonul Tol, Amwaj.media
Turkey simply does not possess the type or depth of influence Iran wields in the Levant; it lacks Iran’s soft power among Shiite communities, Tehran’s penetration of political and security elites, and the proxy networks that give the Islamic Republic real leverage. In Lebanon, the gap is even wider. Turkey does matter and has influence among marginalized Sunni communities in the north, but when it comes to Iran’s embedded power within Lebanese institutions and elites, Turkey is no match.
Adding Hezbollah to the equation would likely worsen this trend and weaken Turkish soft power in Lebanon. Worse, any coordination with Hezbollah in Syria could give Israel additional pretexts to target Turkish interests.
"France, Turkey, and a Reset in the Black Sea" by Romain Le Quiniou, Carnegie Europe
Europe’s push for greater strategic cohesion and autonomy in an uncertain world is held back by poor relations between two of the continent’s most powerful security actors: France and Turkey. Forging a common agenda around Ukraine, and on Black Sea security issues in particular, could be the place to start.
One key priority is to renegotiate and modernize the terms of Turkey’s access to the customs union, in part to design a more robust economic framework aligned with Europe’s geoeconomic needs; one which maximizes Ankara as a critical connector with Asia. As a major investor in Turkey and an influential voice in the EU, France can—and should—play a dynamic role in promoting this.
POLITICS
Aleppo Clashes Spark Dispute Between Ruling Party and DEM
Turkey’s ruling party said on January 12 that recent deadly clashes in Syria’s Aleppo were an attempt by Kurdish militants to undermine Ankara’s efforts to end its decades-long conflict with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).
“The YPG/SDF terrorist organization’s attacks and the operation in Aleppo are an attempt to sabotage the goal of a terror-free Turkey,” said Omer Celik, spokesman for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party.
The PKK, however, issued its own statement on January 13, claiming the clashes between Syrian government forces and Kurdish fighters were aimed at derailing emerging peace efforts between Turkey and the group. “The attack on Kurdish neighborhoods in Aleppo and the attitude of state officials toward our movement sabotage the ‘Peace and Democratic Society’ process,” the PKK said in a statement.
Rudaw also reported that the PKK claimed the latest attack on Kurdish forces in Aleppo received a green light from the United States and other powerful states.
The pro-Kurdish DEM Party accused Ankara of “political hypocrisy,” arguing that the government is promoting a domestic peace process while supporting policies in northeastern Syria that, it said, target Kurdish gains.
In a written statement on January 18, the party’s Central Executive Committee said Turkey is pursuing partisan policies in Syria even as it claims to seek reconciliation at home. The party said the contradiction is eroding trust and harming the peace process.
Arinc Says Father-To-Son Leadership Unlikely to Gain Support in Turkey
Bulant Arinc, a former parliament speaker, deputy prime minister, and one of the AK Party’s founders, said in an interview on Sozcu TV that the idea of political leadership passing from father to son would not gain broad acceptance in Turkey.
Responding to questions about whether President Erdogan’s younger son, Necmettin Bilal Erdogan, might one day seek high office, “Father-to-son transfers of power may exist elsewhere, but I do not believe such a model would gain general acceptance in our country,” Arinc said.
Arinc also suggested that President Erdogan could still introduce an unexpected candidate as the elections draw closer. “I will not name names,” he said, noting that surprise choices remain possible given Erdogan’s political style.
Addressing the imprisonment of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, the main opposition’s declared presidential candidate, Arinc linked the timing of his arrest to his early announcement. “Imamoglu declared his candidacy too early,” Arinc said. “Had he not done so, perhaps he would not have been arrested. In politics, the early crowing rooster gets its head cut off.”
CHP Leader Calls for Repeat Istanbul Vote
The 81st rally in the “Standing Up for the Will of the People” series, launched by the CHP following Istanbul Mayor Imamoglu's arrest, took place in Besiktas, Istanbul, on January 14.
At the rally, CHP leader Ozgur Ozel called for a repeat of the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality elections. He said he would support holding a new vote under one condition: authorities must stop targeting CHP officials and allow defendants to stand trial without pre-trial detention.
Ozel added that he would back an immediate rerun of the election if Erdogan agrees to “trial without detention” after Imamoglu wins again.
Imamoglu Claims Political Pressure Behind Annulment of His University Diploma
The first hearing in jailed Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu’s lawsuit challenging the cancellation of his university diploma took place on January 15 inside the Marmara Prison courtroom west of Istanbul, where he is being held since March 2025.
Imamoglu told the court that prosecutors pressured Istanbul University into revoking his diploma last year, decades after it was issued, alleging that the timing was politically motivated to block his presidential bid. He accused the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office of directly pressuring the university to act swiftly against him. Citing a letter prosecutors sent to Istanbul University on February 24, 2025, he said the communication amounted to a threat.
Imamoglu also questioned why authorities remained silent for more than 30 years before taking action, stating that the move occurred only after he announced his intention to run for president.
Dervisoglu Re-Elected Good Party Leader With Unanimous Vote
Musavat Dervisoglu was re-elected leader of the Good Party after winning all 1,180 votes cast at the party’s fourth ordinary congress, where he ran as the sole candidate.
The congress took place at the Grand Ankara Congress Centre. Delegates voted after completing procedural steps and internal elections. Dervisoglu, who cast the first ballot, received unanimous support from all participating delegates.
ECONOMY
CHP Deputy Says Russia Set to Earn Over $180 Billion From Akkuyu Nuclear Plant
Deniz Yavuzyilmaz, a deputy chair of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), stated that official documents indicate Russia will secure a net profit exceeding $180 billion from the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant, Turkey’s first nuclear facility, over its full operating life.
In a statement shared on social media, Yavuzyilmaz said the plant’s projected operating profit over 69 years totals $207.399 billion. He noted that loan repayments, including principal and interest, amount to $24.229 billion, while shareholder equity contributions stand at $3.1 billion.
After subtracting these expenses, Yavuzyilmaz said Russia’s net profit would reach $180.07 billion. “This means selling Turkey’s future,” he said, adding that the Akkuyu contract “should be immediately cancelled on the grounds of project delays.”
Otokar Pays Nearly 2 Billion Lira in Delay Penalties
Otokar Automotive and Defense Industry Inc. said it has agreed to pay nearly 2 billion Turkish lira in compensation tied to delivery delays under a contract with Romtehnica, a company affiliated with Romania’s Ministry of National Defence.
Under the agreement, Otokar committed to supply 1,059 4x4 tactical wheeled light armored vehicles over five years, starting in the last quarter of 2025. Otokar planned to produce the first 278 vehicles at its own facilities, with the remaining units to be manufactured in Romania.
Otokar said Romania demanded 191,847,899.70 Romanian lei (about 1.88 billion lira at current exchange rates) in compensation, citing Otokar’s alleged failure to meet interim targets for vehicles scheduled to be produced in Romania. The company said it paid the amount on January 16.
Otokar also paid an additional 72 million lira in compensation for delays in the initial delivery of 194 vehicles produced at its own facilities and already sold.
Following the announcement, Otokar shares fell 10% on Borsa Istanbul.
Conflicting Reports Emerge over Activity at BYD’s Planned Factory Site
Construction equipment has appeared at the planned site of Chinese electric vehicle maker BYD’s factory in western Turkey, marking the first public signs of on-the-ground activity since Ankara announced a $1 billion investment deal in July 2024.
Photos shared on social media by Turkish auto industry commentator Ismail Bayramoglu showed excavation work and heavy machinery operating at the Manisa Organized Industrial Zone, where the plant is expected to be built.
However, the Karar newspaper reported, citing industry sources, that the circulating images do not reflect the BYD project and instead show another company’s construction site in the region. Karar also said the Chinese government is closely scrutinizing overseas investments to protect domestic EV manufacturers and limit strategic capital outflows, and that authorities have not yet approved the Manisa investment.
Turkish Firm Signs 30-Year Deal to Build and Run Tartus Shipyard
A Turkish shipbuilding company signed a long-term agreement with Syria’s authorities to build and operate a major shipyard at the port of Tartus. Kuzey Star Shipyard signed a build-operate-transfer deal with Syria’s General Directorate of Ports and Customs to establish a comprehensive shipyard under a 30-year operating model.
Under the terms, Kuzey Star will finance, construct, equip, and operate the facility. The company is expected to invest at least $190 million over the first five years, including spending on quay construction, storage areas, and core infrastructure.
Turkish Authorities Seize Eyupspor, Eight Firms in Illegal Betting Probe
Turkish authorities have taken control of top-flight football club Eyupspor and eight related companies as part of a widening investigation into illegal betting and suspected money laundering.
On January 16, the Istanbul 12th Criminal Court of Peace appointed trustees to oversee Eyupspor Futbol Yatirimlari A.S. and eight other firms owned or co-owned by club president Murat Ozkaya. Ozkaya, who was detained on November 10, faces accusations of attempting to manipulate match results as part of the same betting investigation.
HUMAN RIGHTS
ECHR Rules Turkey Violated Fair Trial Rights in Dismissal Over Alleged Gulen Links
The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) ruled on January 13 that Turkey violated a university lecturer’s right to a fair trial by upholding his 2016 dismissal over alleged ties to the Gulen movement.
The court found that Turkish authorities failed to properly assess the dismissal of İ.Ç., who was accused of using ByLock, an encrypted messaging app that the government claims supporters of the movement used.
According to the ruling, domestic courts accepted the allegation without requesting documents or technical evidence to substantiate it and without giving İ.Ç. a genuine opportunity to contest the claim.
Human Rights Lawyer Found Dead in İzmir, Motive Unclear
Human rights lawyer Ali Aydın, a former co-chair of the İzmir branch of the Human Rights Association (İHD), was found dead in İzmir during his regular morning walk. He was reportedly struck in the head with a hard object, likely stones. According to İHD representatives, there were no witnesses or security cameras, and robbery is not considered a motive since his personal belongings were untouched. While the motive remains unclear, colleagues highlighted Aydın’s long-standing human rights activism with both İHD and the Progressive Lawyers Association (ÇHD), as well as lingering questions surrounding the circumstances of his death.
81 Detained in Latest Wave of Crackdown on Alleged Gulen Movement Members
On January 12, Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya announced on X that authorities had detained 81 people in the latest phase of a years-long crackdown on alleged members of the Gulen movement. Security forces carried out coordinated raids in 16 provinces, including Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir.
Yerlikaya said some detainees were public officials and that investigators identified the suspects using digital material obtained from a confidential informant.
Eight people were freed after giving statements to prosecutors, while the remaining 43 were taken to the Istanbul courthouse. The court ordered the arrest of 14 of them and released 29 under judicial supervision.
FOREIGN POLICY
U.S. Launches Second Phase of Gaza Plan
The United States announced on January 14 that it is moving to the second phase of its plan to end the war in Gaza, even though key elements of the first phase, including a full ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, have yet to be implemented.
In a social media announcement, President Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff said the second phase “establishes a transitional technocratic Palestinian administration in Gaza” and will initiate a process of disarmament and reconstruction. He said this stage of the plan will start “the full demilitarization and reconstruction of Gaza, primarily the disarmament of all unauthorized personnel.”
According to a joint statement from mediators Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey, the new Palestinian body will have 15 members and will be led by Ali Shaath, a former deputy minister in the Western-backed Palestinian Authority.
Both Hamas and its rival Fatah movement, led by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, have endorsed the list of technocratic committee members, Egyptian and Palestinian sources said.
On January 17, leaders from several countries received a letter inviting them to join a U.S.-led “Board of Peace” initiative, diplomats said. The body would initially focus on ending the conflict in Gaza before expanding its efforts to other crises. Four sources said the leaders of France, Germany, Australia, and Canada were among those asked to serve on the Board of Peace.
The offices of the Egyptian and Turkish presidents also confirmed they had received invitations.
US Senator Warns Turkey-Backed Escalation Could Threaten ISIL Prisoner Custody
US Senator Lindsey Graham warned on January 16 that any escalation of attacks on Kurdish forces by Syrian troops backed by Turkey could create a “whole new dynamic,” particularly if it jeopardizes the detention of thousands of Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) prisoners held by the Kurds.
In a statement on X, Graham said, “If anyone believes that I or any of my colleagues would be comfortable - at this stage - for the ISIS prisoners to be guarded by the Syrian army or Turkey instead of the Kurds, you are sadly mistaken,” and urged Ankara and Damascus to “choose wisely.”
Fidan and Israeli Ministers' Same-Day Abu Dhabi Visit Fuels Speculation
Turkey’s foreign minister visited Abu Dhabi on January 14 for talks with the United Arab Emirates’ leadership, with discussions focusing on regional developments and bilateral ties.
The UAE state news agency WAM reported that President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan received Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan at Qasr Al Shati in Abu Dhabi. The two discussed regional issues and relations between Ankara and Abu Dhabi.
Fidan also met Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the UAE’s deputy prime minister and foreign minister, according to the Emirati Foreign Ministry. The Ministry said the talks covered bilateral issues, as well as regional and international developments, with a focus on the Middle East.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar was also in Abu Dhabi on the same day, prompting speculation about possible behind-the-scenes contact between Ankara and Tel Aviv.
Namik Tan, a former Turkish ambassador and now a lawmaker with the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), noted in a post on X that Saar was reported to be in Abu Dhabi on the same day as Fidan.
Turkey Warns Against Iran Intervention, Tightens Border Watch
Omer Celik, spokesperson for Turkey’s ruling AK Party, said on January 12 that any foreign intervention in neighboring Iran would deepen crises in Iran and across the region. He called for the United States and Iran to negotiate to resolve existing problems. Celik said NATO member Turkey does not want to see chaos in Iran despite “certain problems within Iranian society and government.”
Dozens of Iranians crossed the border into Turkey on January 14 as authorities in Iran intensified a crackdown on one of the largest protest waves ever mounted against the Islamic Republic’s clerical rule. Two diplomats told Reuters that the number of people crossing from Iran into Turkey has risen following travel advisories from several countries urging their citizens to leave Iran.
A Turkish security official stationed at the border, however, said conditions at the gate remained within normal limits, with no significant increase in arrivals, while noting that developments were being closely monitored.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan also urged dialogue to ease regional tensions in a January 14 call with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, according to a Turkish Foreign Ministry source.
Reuters, citing a Turkish diplomatic source, reported that Turkey has also been in contact with U.S. officials, as direct communications between Tehran and Washington remain suspended.
Speaking at a press conference in Istanbul, Fidan said, “We are against a military intervention against Iran. Iran needs to solve its authentic internal problems on its own,” adding that Turkey’s priority is to prevent destabilisation in Iran.
Defense Ministry stated on January 15 that it is tightening security measures along the country’s borders. Ministry officials told reporters at a weekly briefing in Ankara that border units are maintaining constant surveillance and that the government is preparing additional precautionary steps.
Greek Foreign Minister Signals Plan to Extend Territorial Waters
Greece intends to extend its territorial waters further, potentially including areas in the Aegean Sea, despite Turkey’s long-standing threat of war if Athens takes such a step, Foreign Minister George Gerapetritis told parliament on January 16.
“Today, our sovereignty in the Aegean Sea extends to six nautical miles,” Gerapetritis said during a parliamentary session. “As there was an agreement with Egypt, as there was an agreement with Italy, there will also be a further extension of the territorial waters,” he added.
Spanish Authorities Seize Nearly 10 Tons of Cocaine on Ship Owned by Turkish Company
Spanish authorities have seized nearly 10 metric tons of cocaine from a cargo ship in the Atlantic Ocean. Police said the Cameroon-flagged vessel, identified as the United S, was intercepted on January 6 in international waters as it sailed toward Europe. During the operation, officers discovered 9,994 kilograms (22,033 pounds) of cocaine packed into 294 parcels and hidden within a shipment of salt.
All 13 crew members on board were arrested. Police also confiscated a firearm they believe was used to guard the illicit cargo. The operation, code-named “Marea Blanca” (“White Tide”), involved cooperation with law enforcement agencies from the United States, Brazil, the United Kingdom, France, and Portugal.
The United S is reportedly owned by Kamer Shipping & Trading Co., a company based in Turkey, although the ship was operating under the flag of Cameroon.
The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor's Office later announced that it had opened an investigation based on media reports. Following this announcement, police carried out simultaneous raids at 19 locations, including 11 in Istanbul, and detained seven suspects.
Turkey to Deploy Fighter Jets to Estonia and Romania for NATO Air Policing
Turkey will deploy fighter jets to Estonia and Romania as part of NATO’s enhanced air policing missions, the Defence Ministry announced on January 15, amid stepped-up alliance air defences in response to what NATO describes as repeated Russian violations of allied airspace.
In a weekly press briefing, the Ministry said Turkey plans a four-month deployment in Estonia from August to November 2026, followed by another rotation in Romania from December 2026 to March 2027.
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