ANALYSIS
"Three Phases of Turkish-American Relations in Syria" by Hasim Tekines, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
Viewed through the lens of the Syrian crisis, Turkish–American relations can be divided into three phases. In the first phase, from 2011 to 2014, relations improved around a shared objective: political change in Syria. Between 2014 and 2024, relations became increasingly strained as the two countries pursued diverging interests. Since the fall of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024, Ankara and Washington have focused on managing and resolving their disputes.
Syria has shifted from an arena of conflict to one of cooperation between Turkey and the United States. Trump, who tends to view international politics as a division of spheres of influence among powerful actors, appears to see Syria as falling within Erdoğan’s domain. Although his interest in Syria has never been strong, he views Erdoğan as a partner with whom he can cooperate if necessary.
While fundamental differences remain, especially regarding governance and long-term regional stability, Syria has ceased to be a primary source of confrontation. Instead, it has become an area where Turkey and the United States pragmatically manage their interests, reflecting a broader shift from strategic partnership to transactional cooperation.
"Why are Middle Eastern governments lobbying against a US attack on Iran?" by Galip Dalay, Chatham House
Iran’s power and ambition across the region is diminished, and the prospect of an Iran-centric order has receded. For Middle Eastern leaders, the threats have changed: the greatest risks are now an expansionist and aggressive Israel, and the chaos of a potentially collapsed Iranian state.
Conscious of regional concerns about the core elements of the US-Iranian negotiations, Tehran has a limited appetite for a diplomatic approach that involved not only the US and Iran but also regional states, as proposed by Turkey. Another possible reason for Iran’s opposition to a broader diplomatic track is that, if diplomacy fails in a bilateral negotiation, Iran can blame the US’s bad faith: whereas a wider format might see regional states assign part of the blame to Iranian intransigence.
"Hard and soft power in Turkiye’s Horn of Africa policy" by Dr. Sinem Cengiz, Arab News
In the Horn of Africa, Turkiye first became involved through humanitarian aid initiatives. However, over the past years, Ankara has been expanding its military footprint in the region. This expansion is closely related to increasing insecurities caused by Israel’s policies in the Middle East, which is reflecting its impact in another region. By recognizing Somaliland, Israel–Turkiye rivalry in Syria is now mirroring itself in the Horn of Africa.
For Turkiye, policy toward the Horn of Africa is situated within its broader strategic priorities. The security shifts in the Horn of Africa have also influenced these priorities. This policy also departs from Ankara’s conventional diplomacy in the Horn of Africa, which has relied on soft power elements, moving instead toward a harder power diplomacy that involves military training and exports of defense products. While maintaining its soft power element of mediation to prevent rivalries among the Horn of African states, it also aims to counter Israel’s expansion. This is a challenging task and depends on the commitment of both the Horn of African states and the support of regional actors.
POLITICS
Justice Minister Rules Out General Amnesty in Kurdish Peace Process
Justice Minister Akin Gurlek told Hurriyet newspaper that upcoming legal regulations regarding the Kurdish peace process will not result in a general amnesty or lead to impunity. Gurlek emphasized that the Parliament will ultimately determine the scope of any new legislation.
Addressing ongoing discussions about the "right to hope"—a legal concept regarding the possibility of release for life-term prisoners—Gurlek said the government needs to develop a system that prioritises the general needs of society. He noted that the framework should focus on broader social stability rather than specific individuals to ensure the process remains balanced and effective.
Turkish Parliamentary Panel Backs Reform Roadmap Linked to PKK Disarmament
A Turkish parliamentary commission voted overwhelmingly on February 18 to approve a report that outlines legal reforms alongside the disarmament of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), advancing a peace process aimed at ending decades of conflict.
The roughly 60-page report sets out a roadmap for parliament to pass new laws, including a conditional legal framework that calls on the judiciary to review relevant legislation and align with rulings by the European Court of Human Rights and Turkey's Constitutional Court. The report specifically ties the implementation of these reforms to verified PKK disarmament and envisages a temporary legal structure and a special executive appointment to oversee the transition.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the legislative phase would start immediately. "Now, discussions will begin in our parliament regarding the legal aspects of the process," he said.
While the pro-Kurdish DEM Party objected to the report characterizing the Kurdish issue as a terrorism problem, it generally welcomed the findings and called for rapid implementation.
Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmus urged swift action, saying he believes it is essential to bring the legal regulations to the agenda immediately after Ramadan. "After reaching this point and forming such an alliance, it is necessary to fulfill its requirements," he added.
Ocalan Says Process Shifts From Violence to Democratic Politics
Imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan said Turkey's current political process signals a shift from "violence and division" to "democratic politics and integration," according to a written statement released on February 18 by the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party).
The statement followed a roughly three-and-a-half-hour meeting on February 16 between Ocalan and a DEM Party delegation on Imrali Island. The delegation included Parliament Deputy Speaker and DEM Party lawmaker Pervin Buldan, lawmaker Mithat Sancar, and lawyer Ozgur Faik Erol.
"Weaponry and violence have been abandoned. We will carry out tremendous democratic politics," Ocalan was quoted as saying.
Ocalan criticized what he described as an approach focused solely on the "elimination of terrorism," arguing that framing the issue purely as a security matter would not deliver a lasting solution. He said the current phase should end decades of denial and conflict and stressed the importance of integration within what he called a "Democratic Republic."
Pro-Government Media Outlet Claims Kilicdaroglu Could Return to CHP Leadership
Fatih Atik, Ankara correspondent for pro-government TGRT Haber, claimed about the lawsuit targeting the CHP's 38th Ordinary Congress held on November 4-5, 2023. Atik said the appeals court had requested the management list associated with Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Sources at CHP headquarters rejected the claim, saying the court made no such request.
The Ankara 42nd Civil Court of First Instance dismissed the case on October 24 on the grounds of lack of active standing and the case becoming moot. After an appeal of that ruling, the case moved to the appeals court, which is now hearing it.
Atik further alleged that the court would issue a "complete nullity" ruling after the holiday, which he claimed could lead to the appointment of a call committee to the CHP and pave the way for Kilicdaroglu to return to his post.
ECONOMY
Turkey's EU Exports Surge but Risks Loom From Chinese Competition and EU Industrial Rules
Turkey's Industrial Development Bank (TSKB) reported that Turkey's exports to the European Union rose by $9.7 billion over the past 12 months, though 59% of that growth — $5.7 billion — came from automotive products alone. The top three categories, motor vehicles, industrial machinery, and electrical machinery and equipment, accounted for 72% of the overall increase in EU-bound exports during the period.
However, the report flagged a significant risk, warning that proposed EU industrial rules framed as a "Made in Europe" policy could restrict Turkey's access to incentives and public procurement if the bloc treats Turkey as a third country.
On the competitive front, the TSKB identified 44 product groups across 97 categories where Turkey is losing ground to China, accounting for more than 35% of Turkey's total exports to the EU. The steepest market share losses were recorded in textiles and apparel, including knitted garments, non-knitted garments, and other textile articles, which together generated nearly $13 billion in EU exports in the third quarter of 2025.
Saudi ACWA Power to Build $2 Billion Solar Projects in Central Turkey
Turkey and Saudi Arabia signed an agreement on February 20 under which Saudi energy company ACWA Power will build two large solar power plants in central Turkey, Turkish officials said, putting the investment at about $2 billion
Officials signed the deal at a waterfront palace on the Bosporus Strait in Istanbul. Turkey's Energy and Natural Resources Ministry said the agreement follows an intergovernmental energy deal reached during President Erdogan's visit to Riyadh on February 3.
Under the agreement, ACWA Power will build two solar plants, each with a capacity of 1,000 megawatts, in Sivas province and the Karaman Taseli area, for a combined capacity of 2,000 megawatts, officials said. They added that the projects are expected to produce enough electricity to meet the needs of about 2.1 million households.
TPAO Joins Shell in Black Sea Exploration Project Off Bulgaria
Turkey's state-run oil company, Turkish Petroleum Corp (TPAO), has joined UK energy major Shell in an offshore exploration project in Bulgaria's Black Sea waters, Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar announced. The agreement was signed in Istanbul on February 18.
In a post on X, Bayraktar said the partnership supports Ankara's strategy to expand the overseas operations of its national oil company.
Under the deal, TPAO joined the exploration license for the Khan Tervel block, located in Bulgaria's maritime jurisdiction in the Black Sea near Turkey's Sakarya Gas Field.
Bayraktar stated that the companies will first conduct 3D seismic surveys covering 3,800 square kilometers, then assess whether to drill an exploration well in a later phase based on the results.
British Steel Secures Major Contract With Turkey
British Steel has secured a major contract linked to a Turkish rail project, enabling it to restart round-the-clock rail manufacturing in Scunthorpe for the first time in more than a decade, the BBC reported.
The order, valued at tens of millions of pounds, is for rails for a 372-mile (599 km) high-speed electric railway between Ankara and the port city of Izmir. The rails will be supplied to ERG International Group, which is delivering the project on behalf of the Turkish government.
British Steel commercial director for rail Craig Harvey said the deal acted as the catalyst for returning to 24/7 operations. The contract follows the UK government's move in April to take control of British Steel's Scunthorpe plant to prevent it from closing.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Turkish Courts Order Mass Detentions in Multiple Probes Over Alleged Movement Links
An Istanbul court on February 16 arrested 52 tax inspectors who had been taken into custody last week over alleged links to the movement, as part of an investigation targeting 93 current and former employees of the Treasury and Finance Ministry.
In a separate operation based in the central province of Kayseri, police on February 17 detained 70 people in coordinated raids across four provinces. Of those brought before the court, 54 were arrested and sent to prison, while 16 were released under judicial supervision. Those arrested included a former teacher who was dismissed from public service and was released last summer after completing a prison sentence, as well as his 20-year-old son.
On the same day, authorities detained 18 people, including 16 public employees, in Istanbul-based raids carried out in eight provinces.
Meanwhile, prosecutors in the western province of Izmir issued detention warrants on February 20 for 88 military personnel, including active-duty and retired officers, over alleged ties to the movement. Police conducted simultaneous operations across 33 provinces and detained 60 suspects, including several district-level gendarmerie commanders.
Turkish Court Jails DW Correspondent Over Social Media Posts
Turkish authorities on February 20 arrested a correspondent for German state-backed international broadcaster Deutsche Welle (DW) in Ankara, accusing him of insulting the president through a series of social media posts.
A day earlier, the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor's Office said it detained Alican Uludag and opened a criminal investigation into some of his posts.
A Turkish court ruling said Uludag was arrested over posts on X that allegedly undermined President Tayyip Erdogan's "honour, dignity, and respectability".
DW Director General Barbara Massing rejected the allegations as baseless and described the arrest as "a deliberate act of intimidation" that demonstrates how strongly the government is curbing press freedom.
A German government spokesperson said Berlin is deeply concerned about the detention and added that DW must be able to report independently in Turkey.
Turkey Detains Six European Activists Over Prison Conditions Visit
Turkey has detained six European activists who travelled to the country to examine prison conditions for political detainees and has moved them toward deportation.
The group, made up of activists from Italy, France, Spain, Belgium, and Russia, was detained in Istanbul on February 19 after meeting a legal collective known as the Office of People's Rights (HHB), said Naim Eminoglu, head of the Istanbul branch of the Progressive Lawyers Association (CHD), who is representing them.
HHB said the visitors arrived as part of an observation mission.
Eminoglu said authorities took them to the migration directorate and prevented them from meeting their lawyers. He added that CHD later learned the group was being transferred to Istanbul Airport for deportation.
Turkey Drops to 106th in Global Women Peace and Security Index
Turkey ranked 106th out of 183 countries in the 2025/26 Global Women, Peace and Security Index (WPS Index), down from 99th in the previous edition, according to a biennial report released by the Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS) and the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO).
Turkey scored 0.664, well below the developed-country average of 0.847 and the 0.715 average for its regional peer group of Central and Eastern Europe and Central Asia.
Within that regional group, Turkey ranked last for women's average years of schooling at 7.9 years and for perceptions of community safety, with 44% of women saying they feel safe walking alone at night. The country also ranked near the bottom for women's representation in parliament at 19.9% and for the prevalence of intimate partner violence, reported at 12.1%.
Turkey Initiates Data Privacy Probe Into Major Social Media Platforms
Turkiye's data protection authority said on February 20 that it launched a review into six major social media platforms to assess how they handle children's personal data.
In a statement, the Personal Data Protection Authority said it aims to protect children from potential risks in digital environments. The authority will examine data processing practices and safety measures on TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, X, and Discord.
FOREIGN POLICY
Turkey and Over 10 Nations Condemn U.S. Ambassador's Remarks on Israeli Expansion
U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee sparked an international backlash after telling conservative publisher Tucker Carlson that it "wouldn't be a problem" if Israel "took everything" in the Middle East, though he added that Israel seeks only to reclaim territories it currently occupies and protect its people.
More than 10 countries, including Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates, issued a joint statement condemning the remarks. The group said Huckabee appeared to justify the conquest of large parts of the Middle East on divine grounds and described the comments as "dangerous and provocative." The signatories also stated that the remarks threaten ongoing efforts to end the war in Gaza.
Gaza Peace of Board Holds First Meeting in Washington
The Gaza Peace of Board held its inaugural meeting in Washington on February 19, drawing representatives from more than 20 countries, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey. With observers, the total number of participating nations exceeded 40. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan represented Turkey on behalf of President Erdogan.
In his opening remarks, President Donald Trump announced that the United States would contribute $10 billion to the Peace of Board. He also said Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan, and Kuwait collectively pledged more than $7 billion.
Trump further announced that Indonesia, Morocco, Kazakhstan, Albania, and Kosovo would deploy troops to the International Stabilization Force (ISF), while Jordan and Egypt would support the training of Gaza's police force.
Turkey was not among the countries that pledged financial contributions or troop commitments at the meeting. Speaking briefly at the session, Fidan said Turkey seeks to assume a broader role in Gaza, including potential military involvement.
"Turkey is already providing a massive amount of humanitarian aid to Gaza. We can also make significant contributions to rebuilding the health and education sectors and to training the police force. Furthermore, we are ready to send troops to the International Stabilization Force," he stated.
Greece Plans "Turkey Clause" in Future Arms Deals
Greek Defense Minister Nikos Dendias is preparing a new arms procurement doctrine that would introduce a so-called "Turkey clause" into future defense contracts, according to sources familiar with the plan. The move follows growing frustration in Athens over Germany's sale of Type 214 submarines to both Greece and Turkey.
Under the proposed framework, Athens would require defense suppliers to provide written guarantees that major weapons systems purchased by Greece will not also be sold to Turkey. The Defense Ministry is developing the mechanism as part of a broader overhaul of procurement policy.
The initiative comes as Greece prepares to assess bids for additional submarines, with defense companies from Germany, France, Italy, South Korea and Sweden expected to compete.
Turkey Challenges Greece-Chevron Energy Move South of Crete
Turkey said on February 19 that it opposes what it described as Greece's "unilateral activities" in energy fields south of Crete involving a consortium led by U.S. major Chevron, calling the move a breach of international law and good neighbourly relations.
The Chevron-led consortium signed exclusive lease agreements on February 16 to explore for natural gas off the southern coast of Greece.
"We oppose this unlawful activity, which is being attempted in violation of the 2019 Memorandum of Understanding on Maritime Jurisdiction between Libya and our country," the Turkish Defence Ministry said at a press briefing.
Later in the day, Greek government spokesman Pavlos Marinakis responded to Turkey's objections, saying that Athens pursues an "active policy" and "exercises its rights in accordance with international law and respects international law steadfastly."
Turkey, Ethiopia Sign Energy Cooperation MoU in Addis Ababa
Turkey and Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding on energy cooperation during President Tayyip Erdogan's visit to Addis Ababa, the Turkish Energy Ministry said, adding that the deal will pave the way for joint production and shared projects.
Erdogan made a one-day trip to the Ethiopian capital on February 17 at the invitation of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
The two sides signed the accord at a ceremony after talks between the leaders. The ministry said the agreement commits both countries to develop renewable energy and energy-efficiency projects, and to cooperate on producing and installing equipment for hydroelectric power plants and electric turbines.
Turkey, Egypt Air Force Chiefs Hold Talks in Cairo
Major General Amr Saqr, commander of the Egyptian Air Force, met General Ziya Cemal Kadioglu, head of the Turkish Air Force, and his delegation at Egyptian Air Force Command headquarters, Egypt's military spokesperson said.
The two sides discussed issues of mutual interest and explored ways to strengthen coordination between their air forces, the spokesperson said.
During the visit, the Turkish delegation toured several Egyptian Air Force units and reviewed newly introduced training and armament systems, according to the statement.
Iraqi-Emirati Consortium Plans $700 Million Data Cable Linking UAE to Turkey
An Iraqi-Emirati consortium is planning a $700 million subsea and terrestrial data cable linking the United Arab Emirates to Turkey via Iraq, Reuters reported, citing one of the project's backers. The plan follows the announcement of a separate Saudi-backed fibre-optic project in Syria.
The project, branded "WorldLink," would lay an undersea cable from the UAE to Iraq's Faw peninsula on the Gulf, then extend the route overland north to the Turkish border. The consortium plans to fund the initiative privately and roll it out in phases over five years.
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