ANALYSIS
"Turkey’s Drone Industry at a Strategic Crossroads" by Doga Eralp, War on the Rocks
Having secured a rapidly expanding footprint across Africa, Central Asia, and the Middle East, Ankara is now pivoting toward NATO and European defense-industrial integration. But this dual-track strategy — expanding defense exports to fragile and conflict-affected regions and embedding in the NATO ecosystem — may no longer be sustainable as geopolitical polarization intensifies.
In the face of new global political realities, the NATO integration path is the more rational option for Ankara. Ankara’s balancing act may serve its national interests well, but it raises an uncomfortable truth for the alliance: Cohesion cannot survive if one of its key members treats NATO as just another market. The Turkish drone industry’s growing footprint in Europe is promising, but fragile. Regulatory pressures, political skepticism, and security concerns may harden over time. Meanwhile, Ankara’s support for authoritarian regimes and its uneven alignment with NATO strategy complicate the path forward.
"Ankara’s double win: Kurds, Israel, and the new Syria" by Gonul Tol, Middle East Institute
Recent developments in Syria have strengthened Sharaa’s hand, and he appears to enjoy Trump’s backing. Turkish officials believe that with Sharaa and Turkey gaining ground — and Washington seemingly aligned — Israel may find it harder to resist US pressure to compromise.
From Ankara’s perspective, once the SDF issue is settled, a division of influence in Syria — Israel in the south, Turkey in the north — is acceptable, perhaps even advantageous. If Israeli forces withdraw, scrutiny will inevitably shift to Turkey’s tens of thousands of troops inside Syria. If Israel stays, Damascus may feel more exposed and therefore more inclined to deepen cooperation with Turkey. This is the dilemma Israeli decision-makers now face as they weigh their next moves in Syria.
"Turkey’s Progress on Railway To Nakhchivan Alarms Moscow" by Paul Goble, Eurasia Review
The route could displace Baku–Tehran–Kars as the primary east–west rail line through the South Caucasus. It would present a geopolitical challenge to Russia, Armenia, Georgia, and Iran by dramatically expanding Türkiye’s links with Azerbaijan, Yerevan, Tbilisi, and Tehran. Türkiye’s progress in the construction of the rail line—along with the work that Baku has done in Azerbaijan proper and in the Nakhchivan exclave—mean that Russian and Iranian concerns are growing into alarm.
Such Russian concerns will undoubtedly grow as Türkiye continues to make progress in building its rail line to Nakhchivan, particularly if it receives assistance from the PRC. This concern could lead to Russian actions to prevent the August 2025 Armenian–Azerbaijani accord from being realized and to block any further expansion of U.S. and Turkish influence in the South Caucasus.
POLITICS
DEM Party Co-Chair Says Syria Focus Undermines Peace Efforts With PKK
Tuncer Bakirhan, co-chair of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party), said Ankara has failed to take concrete steps toward domestic peace efforts with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), arguing that the government has moved little beyond establishing a parliamentary commission.
In an interview, Bakirhan said the government has devoted most of its attention to developments in northern Syria, including intensified military operations and rising tensions around Kurdish-held areas. He said this focus has weakened the prospects for dialogue inside Turkey.
Bakirhan warned that the government’s approach risks undermining peace efforts. “All of its energy has been spent on northern and eastern Syria,” he said. “If even a fraction of that effort had been directed here, we would not be facing this situation today.”
Bakirhan also called for more regular communication with imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan as part of renewed efforts to advance dialogue.
Parliament Speaker Says Commission Nears Report on Disbanding Armed Groups
Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmus said the National Solidarity, Brotherhood, and Democracy Commission has reached the final stage of a joint report, signaling that parliament could soon take legislative steps related to the dissolution of armed terror groups.
Kurtulmus spoke to reporters after meeting Francina Armengol Socias, president of Spain’s Congress of Deputies. He said the commission is now working in detail on areas of consensus and will finalize its report soon. He added that the concrete proposals in the report’s final section will be submitted to the TBMM.
Kurtulmus said parliament will consider legislative action only if the terrorist organization fully dissolves and formally declares an end to armed struggle.
Erdogan Welcomes Four Opposition Mayors into Ruling Party
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on January 26 welcomed four opposition mayors into the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party), personally pinning their party badges on their lapels ahead of a meeting of the party's Central Decision and Executive Board (MKYK).
Two of the mayors who joined the AK Party resigned from the New Welfare Party (YRP), an Islamist opposition party. They include Mehmet Aydin, mayor of Cumra in the central province of Konya, and Davut Karadavut, mayor of Kadisehri in central Yozgat province.
The other two mayors switched from the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP). They are Hasan Turgut, the mayor of Karalar in southeastern Sirnak province, and Senol Oncul of Astagul in Corum province.
ECONOMY
Turkey Trade Deficit Widens 11.9% in 2025 as Imports Outpace Exports
Turkey’s foreign trade deficit widened by 11.9% in 2025 to about $92 billion as imports grew faster than exports, according to data released on January 30 by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat).
TurkStat said exports rose 4.4% year on year to $273.361 billion in January-December 2025, while imports increased 6.2% to $365.370 billion. The annual trade gap reached $92.009 billion, up from $82.232 billion in 2024.
The export coverage ratio, which measures exports relative to imports, changed from 74.8% in 2024 to 76.1% in 2025.
Manufacturing accounted for 94.3% of exports over the year. Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries contributed 3.5%, while mining and quarrying contributed 1.6%.
Germany ranked as Turkey’s largest export market in 2025, with $22.167 billion in exports, while China remained the largest source of imports, with $49.576 billion.
Turkey Catches up with EU in Electric Vehicle Adoption
Turkey has rapidly increased electric car sales and has now nearly matched the European Union’s rate of battery electric vehicle (BEV) adoption. Turkey’s BEV market has become the fourth largest in Europe, behind Germany, the UK and France. BEVs accounted for 16.7% of new car sales in Turkey in 2025, compared with 17.4% in the EU.
Turkey’s overall car fleet could quadruple by 2053, which would drive a sharp rise in demand for oil imports, according to a report by instituDE, a Turkish diplomatic think tank based in Brussels.
The report added that if Turkey fails to shift more vehicles to electric power, it will face greater exposure to external shocks, price volatility, and geopolitical risks.
At the same time, the recent surge in BEV sales may not signal a lasting move away from fossil-fuel vehicles. Baki Kaya, an economist and former diplomat who co-authored the report, said Turkey’s tax incentives for BEVs are “very fragile” and can change easily.
Turkey Posts Record Tourism Revenue and Visitor Numbers in 2025
Turkey recorded all-time highs in tourism revenue and visitor arrivals in 2025, with revenue rising 6.8% to $65.2 billion and the number of visitors climbing to nearly 64 million, according to official data released by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat on January 30.
Total arrivals increased 2.7% from the previous year to 63.9 million. Turkish citizens living abroad accounted for about 11.2 million visitors, or 17.5% of the total.
TurkStat said visitors generated $64.45 billion in tourism revenue, while passengers in transit contributed about $782 million.
Turkey Plans Tighter Bankruptcy Protections After Surge in Concordat Filings
Turkey plans to tighten access to bankruptcy protections after a surge in applications, as authorities seek to curb what they describe as misuse of a key debt-restructuring tool, Bloomberg reported.
Draft proposals seen by Bloomberg would overhaul the country’s concordat system, a court-supervised process that allows financially distressed companies to postpone payments and restructure with creditors instead of entering bankruptcy.
Under the draft regulation, companies whose applications are rejected would not be able to reapply unless they can show concrete changes in their financial position. The proposals would also cut the temporary period for submitting required documentation to four months from five.
The draft would require a court-appointed commissioner to complete a preliminary assessment of a company’s financial condition within three weeks.
Opposition Warns of Security Risks as Turkey Sells Naval Warships to Indonesia
Turkey has sold two recently built naval warships to Indonesia in a deal worth about $1 billion, marking a major defense export under Ankara’s national warship program.
The sale covers the warships TCG Izmir and TCG Icel, which were delivered to the Turkish Naval Forces in 2025 as part of the MILGEM program. The Defense Ministry described the agreement as evidence of the level of quality and technology reached by Turkey’s defense industry, presenting it as part of the country’s expanding arms exports.
The Indonesian deal follows an earlier sale of TCG Akhisar, a patrol vessel originally built for the Turkish navy, to Romania for about 245 million euros.
The sales have drawn criticism from the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) Deputy chair Yanki Bagcioglu, a retired rear admiral. Bagcioglu warned that ships planned for domestic force requirements are increasingly being redirected to foreign buyers. He said selling frontline combat vessels for economic reasons creates serious national security risks.
“Vessels planned for the Turkish Naval Forces are not commercial products. They are core elements of national security,” Bagcioglu said.
EBRD Hits Record EUR 2.7 Billion Investment in Turkey in 2025
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said on January 28 that it invested a record EUR 2.7 billion in Turkey in 2025, making the country the bank's largest market by annual investment volume. The lender invested EUR 2.6 billion in Turkey in 2024.
The EBRD said it has committed more than EUR 23 billion to Turkey since 2009, with most of the funding directed to the private sector. Elisabetta Falcetti, the EBRD's managing director for Turkey and the Caucasus, stated that its 2025 portfolio combined private-sector financing with programs focused on decarbonization, digitalization, and human capital, while also continuing its earthquake response.
The bank revealed that it funded 54 projects in 2025 and that the private sector accounted for 91% of its total investment in Turkey. It added that 66% of its 2025 financing supported Turkey's transition to a green economy, while 61% advanced equal opportunities for women.
Turks Spend Record $2.4 Billion on Property Abroad in 2025
Turkish residents spent $2.4 billion buying property abroad in the first 11 months of 2025, marking an all-time high, according to central bank balance of payments data. The spending rose 26.2% from the same period in 2024, the central bank said.
The United Arab Emirates and Greece ranked among the top destinations, according to Bayram Tekce, chairman of the Real Estate Service Exporters Association, a Turkish industry group. Tekce cited geographic proximity and investment programs that can provide residency rights as key drivers.
Turkish buyers typically spend between EUR 250,000 and EUR 1 million on overseas properties, with an average outlay of around EUR 500,000, Tekce said.
Real estate consultant Ozden Cimen projected that Turkish spending on overseas property could exceed $6 billion during the 2026-2027 period.
Halkbank Shares Slide After New York Court Meeting Is Cancelled
Shares in Turkey's state lender Halkbank fell more than 5% on Jan. 28, after a scheduled court meeting in its U.S. criminal case was cancelled a day earlier in New York. Authorities have not announced a new date.
The cancelled status conference, set to take place before a U.S. district judge, was expected to address Washington’s long-running case against Halkbank. U.S. prosecutors accuse the bank of fraud, money laundering, and conspiracy for allegedly helping Iran evade U.S. economic sanctions.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Turkey Tops ECtHR Docket in 2025 as Backlog Rises
Turkey recorded the highest number of new applications filed at the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) in 2025, according to data released by the Strasbourg-based court. The ECtHR registered 6,743 new applications against Turkey in 2025, up from 4,450 in 2024.
The court issued 74 judgments in Turkey-related cases in 2025 and found at least one violation of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) in 66 of them. Most violation findings involved the right to a fair trial under Article 6, cited in 24 cases, followed by the right to liberty and security under Article 5, cited in 21 cases.
Turkey also held the court’s largest year-end backlog. The ECtHR had 18,464 Turkey-related applications pending as of Dec. 31, 2025. Most applications from Turkey related to detentions, arrests, and trials linked to measures introduced after the July 2016 coup attempt.
Russia ranked second for pending applications with 7,177, followed by Ukraine with 4,004. Russia was expelled from the Council of Europe after its 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Poverty and Gangs Draw More Children into Crime in Turkey
Children in Turkey are increasingly becoming involved in crime as poverty deepens and gangs actively recruit minors, according to an analysis published by the BBC’s Turkish service. The report said children are implicated in about 200,000 criminal cases each year.
Data from the Justice Ministry show that 4,582 minors are currently held in juvenile detention centers, while 9,763 children are under supervised release.
Criminologist Boran Ali Mercan said many children are growing up in an environment where crime is not discouraged and is sometimes openly supported. He said minors often adopt older individuals in their immediate surroundings, as well as figures they encounter on digital platforms, as role models.
Experts interviewed by the BBC said gangs typically target children from poor backgrounds by displaying money and social status, then drawing them in with promises of income and belonging. Mercan said gangs exploit deprivation by offering “money, fame and power in a world surrounded by poverty.”
Turkey Puts Boyteks Tekstil Up for Sale in Post-2016 Asset Liquidation
Turkey’s state-run Savings Deposit Insurance Fund (TMSF) has put Boyteks Tekstil, one of the country’s largest textile manufacturers, up for sale as part of its ongoing liquidation of assets seized after the 2016 coup attempt. The company was previously owned by the Boydak family.
A tender notice published in the Official Gazette said the Treasury-owned firm will be sold in full through a process combining sealed bids and an open auction. The notice set a preliminary valuation of 14.3 billion Turkish lira.
The tender requires prospective investors to post a 700 million lira participation guarantee. Bidders must also pay 300,000 lira for tender documents and an additional 1.5 million lira for data room access and site visits.
TMSF set March 30, 2026, as the deadline for sealed bids. It scheduled the open auction for March 31 at 10:00 a.m. at its headquarters in Istanbul.
Turkish Police Detain 151 Over Alleged Gulen Links
Turkish police detained 151 individuals over the last two weeks for alleged ties to the Gulen movement, Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya announced on January 28.
Yerlikaya stated on X that authorities conducted operations across 46 provinces, including Ankara, Antalya, Istanbul, and Izmir. The minister revealed that 82 suspects remain under arrest, while 54 were released under judicial supervision. Legal procedures continue for the remaining detainees.
Turkish Football Federation Targets Amedspor Over Pro-Kurdish Solidarity Video
Turkey's national football body, the Turkish Football Federation (TFF), said it will take action against Amedspor over a video the club shared in solidarity with Kurdish forces in Syria. Amedspor is based in Diyarbakir, the main city in Turkey's Kurdish-majority southeast.
The 20-second clip, posted last week on Amedspor's social media accounts, showed a woman sitting in the club's stadium while someone braided her hair.
In a statement released on Jan. 27, the TFF said the club was guilty of "damaging the reputation of football" by "disseminating ideological propaganda."
FOREIGN POLICY
Fidan, Araghchi Call for Renewed US-Iran Nuclear Talks in Istanbul
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in Istanbul on Jan. 30 and held talks with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan.
Speaking at a joint press conference in Istanbul, Fidan said Turkey opposes any military intervention against Iran and argued that restarting nuclear negotiations between Iran and the United States is essential to reducing regional tensions. “The resumption of nuclear negotiations between Iran and the US is vital for reducing regional tensions,” he said.
Fidan also said Israel is trying to persuade Washington to launch a military operation against Iran, and added that Ankara expects the United States to avoid steps that would escalate tensions.
Araghchi criticized Washington’s approach, saying the United States was not acting in good faith. He said Iran remains open to diplomacy but would reject pressure. “Despite this, Iran is ready for all diplomatic processes. Iran is ready to sit at the table,” Araghchi said. “We have always maintained that our nuclear negotiations are peaceful. Iran will not accept dictation. Negotiations must be based on mutual trust.”
President Erdogan met Araghchi later the same day in Istanbul, Turkey’s Directorate of Communications said. Fidan also attended the meeting. Officials did not provide further details.
Regional States Push US-Iran Talks, but Efforts Stall
Several Middle Eastern governments are pressing the United States and Iran to enter talks to avert a potential conflict, but the effort has struggled to gain momentum as both sides harden their positions, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty held separate calls on Jan. 28 with his Iranian counterpart and U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff, but the outreach produced no breakthrough, the report said. People familiar with the conversations said Iran objected strongly to U.S. terms and warned that targets across the region would become legitimate targets if the United States launched a strike.
Qatar, Oman, and Saudi Arabia have made similar approaches in recent days, but they also failed to make progress, according to people familiar with those efforts.
Turkish President Erdogan is also urging Washington to negotiate with Iran. During a call with U.S. President Donald Trump on January 28, Erdogan proposed a three-way meeting involving himself, the U.S. and Iranian presidents, according to an official briefed on the call.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan spoke the same day with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who is scheduled to travel to Turkey on January 30, about efforts to reduce tensions, Turkish Foreign Ministry officials said.
In an interview with Al Jazeera, Fidan also said the United States should settle its disputes with Iran one at a time instead of seeking a broad, comprehensive deal, arguing that a phased approach would avoid humiliating Iranian officials. He added that Tehran was ready to hold talks on its nuclear program.
He reiterated that Turkey opposes any foreign intervention or attack on Iran and warned that renewed conflict would be a mistake. "My advice always to the American friends: close the files one by one with the Iranians. Start with nuclear, close it, then the other, then the other," Fidan said.
Turkey Arrests Six on Espionage Allegations for Iran
Turkish authorities arrested six people, including an Iranian national, on Jan. 28 on charges of political and military espionage for Iran after coordinated raids across five provinces.
Authorities detained the suspects following a joint investigation involving Istanbul prosecutors, anti-terrorism police, and Turkey's intelligence agency. Investigators accuse the group of collecting information on military bases and other sensitive sites in Turkey and abroad, allegedly in coordination with members of the intelligence arm of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
The suspects also allegedly carried out reconnaissance near the NATO-run Incirlik air base in Adana province, helped move drones through Turkey for use in third countries, and shared information with Iranian intelligence.
Israeli FM Saar Says Better Ties with Turkey Depend on Ankara
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said he hopes Israel and Turkey can build “a different, better future” in their relationship, but said progress “depends entirely on the Turkish side.”
Saar made the remarks in an interview in Azerbaijan, where he was on an official visit. He blamed Ankara for what he described as a steady deterioration in bilateral ties over the past decade.
He said Israel has “no intention of making relations with Turkey even worse than they already are.” Saar also said that senior officials from both countries held a high-level meeting last month to establish a mechanism to prevent tensions with Turkey.
Turkey to Repatriate Women and Young Children from Syria Detention Camps
Turkey has decided to repatriate female Turkish citizens and children under the age of 12 held in the Al-Hol and Al-Roj detention camps in northeastern Syria, according to diplomatic sources.
A Turkish delegation reportedly visited the camps run by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in August. The delegation interviewed detainees, collected fingerprints, and reviewed recruitment histories, the sources said.
The women and children, described as mostly wives and in many cases widows of men linked to the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), are expected to undergo a rehabilitation and reintegration process inside the camps before authorities transfer them to Turkey, the report said.
Turkish security and judicial officials are also assessing whether they can conduct prosecutions at border courts on security grounds, according to the report.
Turkey Will Not Join Saudi-Pakistan Defense Pact, Sources Say
Turkey will not join a mutual defense agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, a source close to the Saudi military told AFP on Jan. 31. The statement contradicts earlier reports suggesting the three nations were negotiating a trilateral alliance.
"Turkey won't join the defense pact with Pakistan," the source said, clarifying that the arrangement is strictly bilateral. "It's a bilateral pact with Pakistan and will remain a bilateral pact."
A Gulf official confirmed the position, stating that while Riyadh maintains separate agreements with Ankara, the specific arrangement with Pakistan will not expand to include Turkey.
Turkey Deploys F-16s to Mogadishu Ahead of Oil Exploration Platform
Turkey deployed three F-16 fighter jets to Mogadishu on January 28 amid expanding Turkish investment in Somalia’s energy and space sectors, Middle East Eye reported.
Somali officials familiar with the matter told the outlet that Ankara has been building a facility to host the jets over the past few months. Turkish engineers have reportedly worked for several days at Mogadishu’s international airport to prepare the site ahead of the aircraft’s arrival.
Analysis of satellite imagery showed that new hangars have been constructed at the airport since September.
A source familiar with the deployment told the outlet that Turkey stationed the F-16s in Somalia as a precursor to Ankara’s plans to send an oil exploration platform to Somalia.
Egypt, Turkey Review "Capital Medical City" Ahead of Erdogan's Visit to Cairo
Egypt’s Deputy Prime Minister and Health Minister Khaled Abdel-Ghaffar met a senior Turkish delegation in Egypt’s New Capital on January 29 to review progress on the “Capital Medical City” project. Officials say the project aims to develop a regional hub for advanced healthcare, medical research, and training.
Health Ministry spokesperson Hossam Abdel-Ghaffar said Egypt and Turkey have made significant progress in health-sector cooperation. He said both sides want to build a regional model for health security by exchanging expertise and drawing on Turkey’s experience in managing large medical cities and using public-private partnership models.
The meeting took place as Cairo prepares for a planned visit by President Erdogan in the first quarter of 2026. Media reports have suggested the trip could take place in February.
Turkey Says Aegean Navtex Notices Have No End Date
Turkey's defense ministry said on January 29 that its recent navigational warnings, known as Navtex, in the Aegean Sea carry no end date, rejecting Greek media reports that described the notices as a two-year step to reinforce Turkey's maritime claims.
Rear Adm. Zeki Akturk, the ministry's spokesperson, told a weekly briefing in Ankara that the warnings serve as "technical objections" to what Ankara calls Greece's unlawful activity in the Aegean. He said the notices are not limited to any fixed period.
Akturk added that the warnings underscore Turkey's position that research in maritime areas it claims must be coordinated with Ankara.
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