ANALYSIS
"The Brotherhood Designation Is Not a Game Changer for Turkey" by Mustafa Enes Esen, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
President Donald Trump has issued an executive order to designate several chapters of the Muslim Brotherhood as terrorist organizations. The order is a reflection of sustained lobbying by the United Arab Emirates and Israel, with support from other Arab governments. While the designation reflects regional geopolitical pressures more than U.S. domestic concerns, it will nevertheless create complications for Turkey and Qatar, both of which maintain close ties with the movement.
Trump’s designation of the Brotherhood as a foreign terrorist organization could complicate the financial operations of Brotherhood-linked companies, foundations and associations based in Turkey. Should secondary sanctions be applied, Turkish banks and firms interacting with these entities may face compliance risks. In this regard, Turkey and Qatar can be expected to intensify lobbying efforts in Washington aimed at limiting the designation’s scope.
"Any peace deal that empowers Russia is a direct security threat to Turkey" by Yevgeniya Gaber, Atlantic Council
A premature deal that favors Russia or leaves Ukraine without credible and functional security arrangements would threaten Turkey’s own security, influence, and strategic position in the region. For Ankara, the consequences of a lopsided peace deal that advantages Moscow will continue to be felt long after the immediate cessation of hostilities. Any peace that cements Russian gains would alter the balance of power in the Black Sea region and constrain Turkey’s geopolitical footprint for decades.
A “Russia-friendly” peace deal—one that legitimizes occupation or implicitly accepts the Kremlin’s claims to expand its territorial gains in Ukraine—would destabilize the region and seriously damage Turkey’s long-term position. A weakened Ukraine, stripped of its territorial integrity and military capacity, would alter the balance of power in the Black Sea in Russia’s favor—a scenario for which Turkey would pay a heavy price. From Crimea to the Caucasus, the consequences would reverberate across Ankara’s geopolitical environment.
"Turkey’s Kurds Have Named Their Price for Peace. Will Erdoğan Pay It?" by Brandon J. Weichert, The National Interest
The PKK knows exactly what it is doing. With Turkey juggling economic strain, domestic protests amid a crackdown on the opposition, and heavy geopolitical commitments—from Syria to the Caucasus—the group senses leverage over Erdoğan. Ankara’s internal vulnerabilities are the foundation of this renewed push for talks. Peace, the PKK believes, is something Turkey wants. This is its price.
Turkey and the PKK are circling each other again, each sensing weakness in the other. But Öcalan’s release is more than a political concession. It is a national trauma flashpoint. If this is truly the PKK’s opening demand, then Ankara faces a stark dilemma: either rewrite the rules of modern Turkish politics or accept another decade of low-intensity war. The PKK has set the price of peace. Is Erdoğan willing—or able—to pay it?
POLITICS
AK Party, MHP Reject Live Broadcast of Imamoglu Trial Hearings
The ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and its far-right ally, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), on December 2 rejected a proposal to broadcast upcoming hearings in the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality case against jailed Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu live on state broadcaster TRT.
The motion had been filed by the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP). Ahead of the vote, CHP deputy group chair Murat Emir urged government lawmakers to support the measure, emphasizing that the public should be able to follow a case directly affecting democratic representation in Turkey’s largest city.
Imamoglu responded sharply to the rejection, saying in a statement through his lawyers, “You never surprise me. You don’t have the courage.”
DEM Party Lawmaker Says Only Partial Record of Ocalan Meeting Sent to Commission
The parliamentary commission responsible for shaping legal and political steps after the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) announced it would disband and lay down its weapons received only a four-page summary of a meeting between Turkish lawmakers and jailed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan on November 24, instead of the full 16-page transcript.
Gulistan Kilic Kocyigit from the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) told the T24 news site that none of the three lawmakers had seen or approved the shortened document. She said the deputies forwarded the complete 16-page record to the parliament speaker and expected that version to be shared with both the commission and the public. She also noted that the summary failed to reflect Ocalan's full remarks or the meeting's tone.
Turkey Demands Explanation Over Armed Guards During Barzani’s Visit
Turkey has requested clarification from Iraqi Kurdish officials after former Iraqi Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani arrived in a mostly Kurdish border region last weekend, accompanied by heavily armed, uniformed guards. Ankara said Barzani’s arrival with armed guards was disrespectful and undermined the Turkish state’s authority to protect foreign dignitaries on its own territory.
Barzani visited the Cizre district in southeast Turkey’s Sirnak province to attend a symposium on a Kurdish poet. Turkish officials, including a deputy interior minister, were also present.
Devlet Bahceli, leader of the MHP, accused Barzani of turning the visit into a “show,” saying, “It is a total disgrace for soldiers wearing foreign uniforms to roam our nation’s soil with long-range rifles.”
In response, Barzani’s office said Bahceli’s remarks were “the product of a chauvinist mentality,” adding that all security measures during the visit followed protocols agreed upon by Turkish and Iraqi officials. The statement also noted that when Turkish officials visit the Kurdistan Region, “Turkey’s special forces accompany them and there are no issues.”
“We thought God had guided Devlet Bahceli and that he had abandoned racism and chauvinism. But it seems he is still the same old Grey Wolf, only now dressed in sheep’s clothing,” the statement said.
Turkey’s interior ministry announced an investigation into the “armed guard images” from Barzani’s visit. The foreign ministry called Barzani’s office’s statement “unacceptable,” provocative, and disrespectful, and said Ankara has demanded an explanation and action against those responsible.
ECONOMY
Turkey’s Economic Growth Slows, Giving Central Bank Room to Cut Rates
Turkey’s economy grew more slowly than expected on an annual basis in the third quarter, giving the central bank more room to continue lowering interest rates, Bloomberg reported.
Annual growth for the period came in at 3.7%, below the 4.2% forecast by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. However, quarterly performance exceeded expectations: the economy expanded 1.1% from July to September, compared with 1.6% in the previous quarter. Analysts had projected just 0.5% quarterly growth, according to a separate Bloomberg poll.
Annual Inflation Falls to Four-Year Low in November
Turkey’s annual inflation eased to 31.07 percent in November, down from 32.87 percent in October, reaching its lowest level in four years since November 2021, official data showed on December 3.
Monthly inflation stood at 0.87 percent. The categories most affected were education, which saw a 66.17 percent annual increase, and housing, which rose by 49.9 percent.
The independent Inflation Research Group (ENAG), composed of independent economists, estimated that consumer prices increased by 2.13 percent monthly and 56.82 percent year-on-year in November, .
Government Faces Criticism Over Selective Pay Raise Plan for Civil Servants
The government faces criticism after a key parliamentary committee approved a plan to give large pay raises to only a small group of senior civil servants.
The proposal would provide a flat monthly increase of up to 30,000 Turkish lira to top managers and “career experts” in central government bodies, excluding local and provincial branches. Parliament’s Planning and Budget Committee approved the raise and now heads to the General Assembly for a final vote.
Memur-Sen, Turkey’s largest public sector union confederation, argued that the raise should apply to all public workers, not just senior staff. The Confederation of Public Sector Trade Unions (KESK) called the plan a “favor for a lucky minority.”
Meanwhile, the Turkish Union of Engineers and Architects Chambers (TMMOB) warned that the move could widen pay gaps within the civil service and prompt many engineers and planners to leave public-sector jobs.
Turkey Extends Russian Gas Deal as It Pursues Wider Energy Diversification
Turkey has extended its expiring natural gas import agreements with Russia for one more year while working on U.S. infrastructure investments to reduce its dependence on Russian energy, the energy minister said. Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar told reporters in Istanbul on December 3 that BOTAS will continue receiving gas from Gazprom next year under a shorter, one-year arrangement.
Bayraktar said Turkish oil refineries are expected to comply with U.S. sanctions on Russian oil.
He added that Turkey also negotiates with Iran to renew a 10 bcm gas import contract that expires next July and aims to boost gas supplies from Turkmenistan.
Separately, Bayraktar said Turkey plans to add two more floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs) in the coming years to expand its LNG capacity, with the option later to charter these units to Morocco and other countries.
The minister also highlighted that Turkey is holding talks with Westinghouse, KEPCO, and ENAC to build the Sinop nuclear power plant, and is cooperating with China to establish HVDC transmission infrastructure.
Turkey Cuts Urals Imports as It Increases Crude Purchases from Kazakhstan and Iraq
Turkey sharply reduced its imports of Russia’s Urals crude oil in November, according to shipping data from energy consultancy Kpler. Imports fell by about 100,000 barrels per day compared to October, bringing total Urals shipments down to around 200,000 bpd last month, Kpler and LSEG data showed.
At the same time, Turkey increased purchases of alternative grades, including Kazakhstan’s CPC Blend and KEBCO, as well as Iraq’s Basrah crude. In November, Turkey imported 105,000 bpd of Kazakhstan’s CPC Blend — the highest level since February 2024, according to Kpler.
BOTAS Signs Long-Term LNG Supply Deals With Germany’s SEFE and Italy’s ENI
Turkey’s state pipeline company BOTAS signed long-term liquefied natural gas supply agreements with German energy firm SEFE and Italy’s ENI on December 3.
The deals were signed at the World LNG Summit in Istanbul by BOTAS General Manager Abdulvahit Fidan, SEFE Vice President Jean Manuel Conil-Lacoste, and ENI Global Natural Gas and LNG Portfolio Director Cristian Signoretto, with Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar also in attendance.
Under the agreements, SEFE will supply Turkey with 6 billion cubic meters of LNG, while ENI will deliver 5 billion cubic meters for 10 years starting in 2028.
Turkey Plans to Begin Hydrocarbon Drilling in Somalia in 2026
Turkey hopes to start drilling for hydrocarbon resources off Somalia’s coast in 2026, following the results of an ongoing seismic study, Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar told journalists on December 3. He said an official announcement could come in January.
Bayraktar acknowledged major challenges ahead. “They don’t even have a road to access the area. We need to build the necessary infrastructure. Security is another challenge, and we are working to address these issues,” he said.
“In 2026, we aim to begin operations, and this time it will not be seismic studies but direct drilling in the onshore block in Somalia,” he added.
HUMAN RIGHTS
EU Rapporteur Says Rule of Law in Turkey Is “a Complete Disaster”
Nacho Sanchez Amor, the European Parliament’s rapporteur on Turkey, said the rule of law in the country is “a complete disaster,” speaking at a press conference in Ankara after two days of meetings with government officials, opposition figures, and rights groups.
Addressing reporters at the EU Delegation office on December 5, Amor said Turkey’s political leaders “only respect the parts of the constitution that protect their own power and ignore the parts that protect rights and courts,” stressing that “the constitution is not a menu, you cannot choose one part and leave the other.”
He also accused the Turkish judiciary of applying “double standards,” saying it treats cases involving the ruling party very differently from those involving the opposition.
On December 6, Amor visited four high-profile prisoners. He met former HDP co-chair Selahattin Demirtas at Edirne High-Security Prison. He then visited Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, philanthropist Osman Kavala, and lawyer and MP Can Atalay at Silivri High-Security Prison near Istanbul.
In a statement issued the same day, Amor said it was “sad to see Turkish authorities’ unwillingness to take well-known steps to address the situation of rule of law and judiciary independence in the country.”
He added that while the EU’s enlargement process has regained momentum, “Turkey is missing this window of opportunity,” noting that the accession process “will not revive by the opening of chapters but by respect for ECtHR and Constitutional Court rulings.”
Edirne Court Orders Arrest of Six Over Alleged Gulen Links
A court in Turkey’s northwestern Edirne province ordered the arrest of six people, including several university students, over alleged ties to the current student structure of the Gulen movement.
Police conducted coordinated raids in multiple cities, including Istanbul and Bursa, detaining 12 people, made up of students and graduates from Trakya University. After questioning, authorities jailed six of them on terrorism charges, while releasing the remaining six under judicial supervision.
16 Student Protesters Arrested in Istanbul Over Workplace Deaths
Sixteen student members of the Workers Party of Turkey (TİP) were arrested in Istanbul after protesting the deaths of minors in workplace accidents at sites under the MESEM vocational training program.
Seventeen students were detained on December 1 outside an education summit at a hotel attended by Education Minister Yusuf Tekin. The students gathered to highlight fatalities among children working under the MESEM program, citing poor safety measures, inadequate training, and lack of supervision.
All 17 students were referred to court on December 3. By evening, the court ordered the arrest of 16, citing “strong suspicion of an offense” and deeming the measure “proportionate.”
FOREIGN POLICY
Hamas to Transfer Gaza Governance Only After Civil Administration, Says Fidan
Speaking to Reuters on December 6 on the sidelines of the Doha Forum, Fidan said Hamas is ready to hand over governance of Gaza, but only once a credible Palestinian civil administration and a vetted police force are established.
He added that it is “neither realistic nor doable” to expect Hamas to relinquish its weapons during the first phase of the current ceasefire plan without these institutions in place.
Fidan clarified that the proposed police force would exclude Hamas members and would operate under the support of the International Stabilization Force (ISF), which would deploy inside Gaza. He noted that the United States is urging Israel to accept Turkey as part of that force.
Regional Ministers Reject Any Plan to Move Gazans into Egypt
In a joint statement issued on December 5, the foreign ministers of Pakistan, Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar said they were “deeply concerned” by Israeli remarks suggesting the use of Rafah to transfer Gaza residents into Egyptian territory.
The ministers stressed their “absolute rejection of any attempts to expel the Palestinian people from their land” and called for “full adherence” to the Gaza plan backed by U.S. President Donald Trump, which requires Rafah to remain open in both directions and prohibits forcing Gazans to leave.
They added that governments should instead “create the right conditions for them to stay on their land and participate in building their homeland.”
US Ambassador Says Turkey Moving Closer to Removing Russian S-400 System
Turkey is getting closer to removing the Russian missile-defense system that has blocked its ability to purchase American F-35 fighter jets, Bloomberg reported, citing Tom Barrack, the US ambassador to Turkey.
“My belief is that those issues will be resolved in the next four to six months,” Barrack said during a conference in Abu Dhabi on December 5. When asked whether Turkey was nearing a decision to get rid of the Russian S-400 system, he responded, “Yes.”
Erdogan Emphasizes Dialogue in Call with Venezuelan President Maduro
On December 6, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke by phone with Venezuelan President Maduro. During the conversation, Erdogan said Turkey was closely monitoring developments in the region and emphasized that problems could be resolved through dialogue.
He stressed the importance of keeping dialogue channels open between the US and Venezuela and expressed hope that tensions would ease as soon as possible.
Fidan Raises Black Sea Tanker Attacks with Rutte, Summons Ukrainian and Russian Envoys
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on December 3 that the recent “very scary” attacks on Russia-linked tankers in the Black Sea threaten the safety of everyone in the region and show that the Ukraine war’s reach is expanding.
Fidan discussed the incidents — some of which Ukraine has claimed — with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Brussels, as well as with his counterparts from Bulgaria and Romania, according to a Turkish Foreign Ministry source.
He and Rutte discussed Black Sea security and efforts to negotiate an end to the nearly 4-year conflict, the source said, without providing further details.
Meanwhile, Deputy Foreign Minister Berris Ekinci told parliament’s foreign affairs commission on December 4 that Turkey summoned both Ukraine’s ambassador and Russia’s acting charges d’affaires to express concern about the attacks on Russia-linked vessels within Turkey’s exclusive economic zone in the Black Sea.
“Yesterday and today, we summoned Russia’s acting charges d’affaires and Ukraine’s ambassador to convey our concerns,” she said.
Besiktas Shipping Halts All Russia-Related Operations After Tanker Explosion Near Senegal
Besiktas Shipping, the Turkish owner of an oil tanker damaged last week off the coast of Senegal, announced on December 2 that it is ending all operations with Russia and will no longer accept Russia-related voyages.
The company said it has consistently complied with international sanctions, including the G7/EU price cap and all related trade restrictions. “However, the security situation in the region has escalated considerably. After a thorough assessment, we have concluded that the risks posed to our vessels and crew have become untenable,” it stated.
The tanker Mersin was anchored near Dakar when four external explosions occurred on November 27, flooding the engine room with seawater.
Egypt and Turkey Expand Defence Cooperation with Joint Drone and UGV Projects
Minister of State for Military Production Mohamed Salah El-Din Mostafa met with Gokhan Ucar, Vice President of Turkey’s Defence Industries Agency and head of the delegation representing 81 Turkish defence companies at “EDEX 2025” International Defence Exhibition, to discuss expanding cooperation in multiple military manufacturing fields.
The announcement of a 2025 joint drone-manufacturing project followed an agreement between the Arab Organisation for Industrialisation (AOI) and the Turkish defence technology company Havelsan to co-produce a vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) UAV in Egypt. The drone, unveiled at EDEX 2025 under the name Hamza-1, is the first publicly showcased UAV developed through Egyptian-Turkish industrial collaboration.
Turkey Plans Drone Assembly Facility in Pakistan, Officials Say
Turkey plans to establish a facility in Pakistan to assemble combat drones, according to Turkish officials familiar with the discussions, Bloomberg reported.
Sources said talks on the project — which involves exporting stealth and long-endurance Turkish drones to be assembled in Pakistan — have made significant progress since October.
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