"Erdogan’s Imperial Illusions" by Asli Aydintasbas, Foreign Affairs
On its own, Turkey faces too many internal problems, including a strained economy and a hollowed-out state, and too much external opposition, particularly from a confident and aggressive Israel, to build a regional order on Ankara’s terms. And if Erdogan cannot make good on his promise to usher in a new age of Turkish power, the domestic pressures he faces could mount as Turkey continues its strategic drift in an increasingly unsafe world.
Erdogan may harbor the dreams of an Ottoman sultan, but modern Turkey remains hobbled in its own backyard and mired in domestic problems. Although Ankara will remain a major player in the regional order, and a dominant one in Syria, it will not be able to turn back the clock to the time when it was the single dominant force in the Middle East.
"Europe Tried to Slam the Door on Russian Energy. It Didn’t Account for Turkey" by Matthew Dalton, The Wall Street Journal
Russian refiners have shipped some $50 billion in diesel and other fuels to Turkey since sanctions came into force. Those fuel exports accounted for around 10% of Moscow’s oil revenue and 7% of its total energy revenue in that time, according to CREA, which monitors Russian energy flows. Shipments from the Turkish terminals to the EU have more than doubled to around $24 billion over the same window, according to CREA’s analysis.
European antifraud investigators have scrutinized the trade data, but they haven’t been able to prove the Russian fuel entering Turkey’s network of storage terminals is leaving for the EU, making sanctions enforcement difficult. Turkey hasn’t allowed in-depth investigations into the flow of products through its terminals, the officials say.
"The potential of the Abraham Accords won’t be realized without Turkey" by Ghaida Rinawie Zoabi, Atlantic Council
Incorporating Turkey into initiatives related to the Abraham Accords and transnational infrastructure projects—such as the East Mediterranean Gas Forum and future iterations of the India–Middle East–Europe Corridor (IMEC) project—would help create overlapping economic interests that constrain confrontation and promote dialogue. Failure to involve Turkey risks institutionalizing competing integration schemes rather than converging toward a single cooperative framework. In response to Turkey’s exclusion from the IMEC project, Ankara announced a partnership with Iraq, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates on an alternative, called the “Development Road” project. Further marginalization would likely deepen Ankara’s coordination with Moscow, Tehran, and Beijing on transport and energy routes.
Beyond that, Turkey’s presence in regional projects will add a key geopolitical dimension to the accords system, thereby balancing Ankara’s geopolitical relations with Iran and contributing to broader legitimacy in the Arab world. The West, the United States, Israel, and the Gulf states therefore have a clear interest in involving Turkey, not as an adversary but as a regional partner.
Ozel Claims Erdogan Delayed Order to Down UAV Over Capital
Main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader Ozgur Ozel claimed that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan failed to give timely instructions to shoot down an unidentified aerial vehicle (UAV) that reached Ankara airspace on December 15.
Speaking to the newspaper Cumhuriyet, Ozel asserted that the authority to shoot down an aircraft currently rests with President Erdogan and that no order was issued during the two hours while the UAV was being tracked. He said NATO radars in Turkey first detected the UAV via a NATO base in Spain, after which F-16 fighter jets from Konya and Eskisehir took off and followed the drone for two hours. When the jets ran low on fuel, Ozel claimed, two additional F-16s from Incirlik Air Base were scrambled and eventually shot down the UAV.
However, Ozel maintained that Erdogan did not issue any instructions during those two hours.
Turkey’s Directorate of Communications Disinformation Combat Center (DMM) rejected Ozel’s account in a statement posted on its X account. The DMM said the authority to shoot down an aircraft lies with the Turkish General Staff and that, on the day of the incident, this authority was promptly delegated to the Air Force Command.
The DMM added that the UAV was destroyed “in a controlled intervention in a safe area” after all peacetime procedures had been completed.
Ozel: CHP’s candidate will be strong enough to defeat Erdogan
CHP leader Ozgur Ozel said his party’s current presidential candidate remains Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, despite what he described as the serious injustices Imamoglu has faced.
Speaking in an interview with Nefes Newspaper, Ozel added that if Imamoglu’s candidacy is blocked on the grounds of his university diploma, the CHP will select its nominee through the most participatory process possible.
“We will choose a candidate who can defeat him. I have never had any ambition or intention to be a presidential candidate, but the CHP’s candidate will be strong enough to defeat Erdogan,” Ozel said.
15 Arrested in Expanded Probe into CHP-Led Şile Municipality
Authorities have launched a new operation as part of an ongoing investigation into the CHP-led Şile Municipality. Following the earlier arrest of five people, including Şile Mayor Ozgur Kabadayi, police detained 22 people on December 23.
The investigation centers on allegations of “forming an organization to commit crimes,” “extortion,” “bribery”, and “rigging tenders.”
The prosecutor’s office referred 15 of 22 people to court with a request for arrest, and five others with a request for judicial control. The court ordered the arrest of 15 people.
Mandate Extended for Commission Drafting Legal Framework for Peace Process
The mandate of the commission tasked with preparing the legal framework for the peace process with the outlawed PKK has been extended by two months.
The commission held its 20th meeting on December 24, reviewing and evaluating the outcomes of previous sessions. Members also discussed a joint report to be drafted based on the reports previously submitted by political parties to parliament. Two Turkish academics presented a summary of an analytical report on the commission’s work to date.
During the meeting, members unanimously voted to extend the commission’s term by 2 months, effective December 31. Parliament Speaker and commission chair Numan Kurtulmus noted that the original goal had been to complete the process by October, but said the commission had not been able to fully conclude its work by then.
DEM Party Holds Series of Talks in Ankara on Peace Process
A delegation from the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM), comprising MPs Pervin Buldan and Mithat Sancar and lawyer Faik Ozgur Erol, visited Republican People’s Party (CHP) headquarters on December 22 and met with CHP leader Ozgur Ozel as part of their talks with political parties during the peace process with the PKK.
Speaking at a press conference after the meeting, Buldan said they had held a very important and productive discussion with Ozel. “We discussed in detail the stages the process has reached. We attach great importance to the constructive role of the Republican People’s Party at such a historical turning point,” she said.
On December 23, the DEM delegation met with Justice Minister Yilmaz Tunc and senior ministry bureaucrats. Sancar said they held a comprehensive meeting, during which they exchanged views and conveyed their proposals on legal arrangements.
The same day, the delegation also met with Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmus. After the talks, Buldan underlined that it was important for the parliament to take ownership of the process. She added that they had conveyed their view that the commission’s work should be finalized by mid-January.
Turkey Hikes Minimum Wage by 27 Percent to 28,075 Lira
Turkey has raised its monthly minimum wage by 27 percent for 2026, setting the net pay at 28,075 lira, Labour Minister Vedat Isikhan announced on December 23. The minimum wage for 2025, set at the end of 2024, was 22,104 lira.
Isikhan said the new wage level will take effect on January 1, 2026, following the final meeting of the Minimum Wage Determination Commission, which includes representatives of the government, employers and selected labour unions.
The Confederation of Turkish Trade Unions (Turk-Is), which represents workers, boycotted the talks in protest at the commission’s structure. Turk-Is President Ergun Atalay rejected the new minimum wage, arguing that it fails to meet workers’ demands.
Main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader Ozgur Ozel condemned the decision as “a disgrace,” saying it marked the first time in Turkey’s history that the minimum wage was set below the official hunger threshold.
Bloomberg: Turkey Plans Modest 2026 Tax Hikes on Key Goods and Services
Turkey is preparing modest tax increases on key goods and services, including motor fuel, in 2026, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter. Officials expect to raise levies on fuels and regulated prices in line with the central bank’s end-2026 inflation target of 16 percent, the sources said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
The semiannual tax adjustments, usually announced within the first week of the year, will show taxes on gasoline and diesel rising at a more moderate pace than current laws and regulations would allow, according to the report.
The new measures will also cover so-called administered prices — goods and services whose prices are set or influenced directly by the government and regulators — including tobacco, alcoholic beverages, and energy.
Turkey’s Income Inequality Narrows Slightly in 2025, Data Shows
Income inequality in Turkey narrowed marginally in 2025, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute’s (TurkStat) data released on December 26. The share of total income received by the top 20 percent fell by 0.1 percentage points from a year earlier to 48 percent, while the share of the bottom 20 percent rose by 0.1 percentage points to 6.4 percent.
TurkStat calculated the Gini coefficient, a key measure of income inequality, to have declined by 0.003 points in 2025 to 0.410. The P80/P20 ratio, which compares the income of the richest 20 percent with that of the poorest 20 percent, decreased by 0.2 points to 7.5.
Salaries and wages accounted for the largest share of total income at 49.7 percent. Entrepreneurial income accounted for 18.3 percent, while social transfers represented 18.2 percent. Pensions and widow/orphan allowances made up 89.3 percent of total social transfers.
By sector, the highest average annual primary income was recorded in services with 426,045 lira, while the lowest was in agriculture with 237,461 lira.
Turkey Suspends Inflation Accounting Requirement for Companies
Turkey’s parliament on December 24 approved legislation scrapping the requirement for companies to produce inflation-adjusted accounts for the 2025, 2026 and 2027 financial years. The law also grants the president authority to extend this exemption for an additional three years.
The government had originally decided in 2023 to introduce inflation accounting from end-2023 through 2026 in response to soaring inflation in 2022.
Separately, Turkey’s banking regulator, the BDDK, announced that banks, financial leasing companies, factoring companies, financing companies, savings financing companies, and asset management companies will not apply inflation accounting.
Turkey Secures New Russian Financing for Akkuyu Nuclear Plant
Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar announced that Russia has provided an additional $9 billion in financing for the Akkuyu nuclear power plant, which is being built by Moscow's state nuclear energy company Rosatom. Ankara expects the plant to become operational in 2026.
"This financing will most likely be used in 2026–2027. There will be at least $4–5 billion from there for 2026 in terms of foreign financing," Bayraktar told local reporters at a briefing in Istanbul, according to a readout from his ministry.
Bayraktar said Turkey is holding talks with South Korea, China, Russia and the United States on potential nuclear projects in the Sinop province and the Thrace region. He added that Ankara aims to secure "the most competitive offer."
He also said Turkey is in discussions with Saudi Arabia's ACWA Power on a 5,000-megawatt solar energy package. "We will have completed the agreement for this in the first quarter of 2026, for 2,000 megawatts in the first phase. We are talking about a 2,000-megawatt solar energy project; 1,000 megawatts in Sivas, a thousand in Taseli," he said.
"We are discussing a project on solar and storage with yet another firm from the Gulf again. The approximate investment cost of that is between $1.5–2 billion," Bayraktar added.
Turkish Prosecutors Detain 31 in Vepara Money-Laundering Case
Turkish prosecutors have opened a money-laundering investigation into the digital payments platform Vepara and ordered the detention of 31 suspects in coordinated operations across six provinces, the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor's Office announced on December 26. Police conducted simultaneous raids in Istanbul, Ankara, Kastamonu, Tokat, Kocaeli and Bursa.
Authorities allege that illicit funds were channeled through several domestic and foreign companies to disguise their origin. The statement says that multiple suspects, employed as software engineers, information technology personnel, and project managers, are accused of helping transfer funds tied to criminal activity.
ECHR Grants Priority Review to Istanbul Mayor's Application
The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) has decided to examine the application of Istanbul mayor and main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) presidential candidate Ekrem Imamoglu under a priority procedure, his jailed lawyer, Mehmet Pehlivan, has revealed.
In a statement shared on X, Pehlivan said the defense team had been formally notified of the court’s decision. He explained that the ECHR agreed to treat the application concerning Imamoglu’s pretrial detention as an urgent case, noting that such prioritization is “rarely granted” in applications originating from Turkey.
Turkey Issues Detention Orders for 20 over Alleged Gulen-Linked Public Sector Network
The Ankara Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office issued detention orders for 20 people on December 25 across eight provinces, in an investigation targeting what authorities describe as the “public sector structure” of the Gulen Movement.
According to the prosecutor’s statement, those sought include five active public employees, one civilian and 14 individuals who were previously dismissed from public service.
Kenyan Court Delays Ruling on Turkish Refugee Mustafa Gungor Amid Deportation Fears
A Kenyan court on December 22 postponed its ruling in the case of Mustafa Gungor, a Turkish refugee arrested in Kenya, until December 30. Amnesty International Kenya said the court ordered that Gungor remain in detention pending further investigations, rejecting a bail request filed by the Law Society of Kenya and the Global Peace Foundation.
Gungor, a registered refugee in Kenya with a valid refugee identification card, was detained on December 20 along with his wife Zeliha, their two daughters and his in-laws over alleged links to the faith-based Gulen movement. The arrests reportedly followed a request from Turkish authorities. While his family members were later released, Gungor remains in custody.
Libyan Army Chief Dies in Jet Crash After Ankara Visit
The head of Libya’s armed forces and four other passengers were killed on December 23 when their business jet crashed shortly after taking off from Ankara. Earlier that day, Lieutenant General Mohammed al-Haddad had held talks in Ankara with his Turkish counterpart, Selcuk Bayraktaroglu, and was en route back to Tripoli. Two French crew members—the pilot and co-pilot—and a Greek cabin attendant were reportedly killed in the jet crash.
Turkish Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya said on X that al-Haddad’s jet departed Ankara’s Esenboga Airport at 17:10 GMT and that “contact was lost” 42 minutes later. The aircraft issued an emergency landing notification near Haymana, around 74 kilometers (45 miles) from Ankara, but authorities were unable to re-establish contact, he added.
Libyan Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah said, “It is with deep sadness and great sorrow that we learnt of the death of the Libyan army’s chief of general staff, Lieutenant General Mohammed al-Haddad.” The other victims were reportedly al-Haddad’s advisor, Mohammed Al-Assawi, Maj. Gen. Al-Fitouri Ghraibil; Maj. Gen. Mohammed Jumaa and their escort, Mohammed Al-Mahjoub.
Yerlikaya told reporters at the crash site on December 24 that investigators had recovered the plane’s cockpit voice recorder and flight data recorder. “The examination and evaluation processes of these devices have been initiated,” he said.
Turkey’s Transport Minister Abdulkadir Uraloglu said on X that analysis of the recorders to determine the cause of the crash would be carried out in a neutral country. The findings will be shared “with our nation and the entire world with full transparency,” he added.
In his own statement on X, Devlet Bahceli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and a key ally of President Erdogan, highlighted that the crash occurred at a time when Turkey and Libya were intensifying dialogue and coordinating to defend shared interests. He described the incident as both deeply tragic and “concerning” in terms of its timing.
Turkey Receives First Engines for KAAN Fighter Jet, Seeks Licenses for 80 More
Turkey has received the first 10 engines for its domestically developed fifth-generation KAAN fighter jet, while talks with the United States continue over licenses required for 80 additional engines, Defense Minister Yasar Guler said in a written response to parliament.
Guler said 10 engines were delivered under the first contract and that talks with the US government are ongoing regarding a second contract covering the supply of 80 more engines.
He also outlined progress on Turkey’s efforts to develop an indigenous powerplant for the aircraft. Tusas Engine Industries (TEI) selected its TF35000 engine concept in March 2024 for use in the KAAN Block 30 and Block 40 variants. A preliminary design phase contract was signed in August 2024, with completion targeted for early 2026.
Turkish FM Fidan Says SDF Failing to Honour Integration Deal
A high-level Turkish delegation traveled to Syria on December 22 and met Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Damascus. The delegation included Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, Defense Minister Yasar Guler and National Intelligence Organization chief Ibrahim Kalin.
Following talks with President al-Sharaa and Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani, Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan said the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) appeared to have no intention of honoring a commitment to integrate into the Syrian state’s armed forces by a year-end deadline.
“The SDF is running some of its operations in coordination with Israel, and this is actually a major obstacle to ongoing negotiations with Damascus,” Fidan said.
Al-Shaibani backed Fidan’s assessment, stating that Damascus did not see “any initiative or serious will” from the SDF to implement the March agreement. He added that the Syrian government had recently proposed an alternative way forward to the Syrian Kurds. “We received a response yesterday, and this response is currently being studied,” he said.
Turkey Condemns Israel’s Recognition of Somaliland
Israel announced on December 26 that it recognizes Somaliland as an independent and sovereign state.
Turkey’s Foreign Ministry swiftly condemned the move, calling Israel’s decision to recognize Somaliland’s independence an unlawful act aimed at creating instability and an explicit intervention in Somalia’s internal affairs.
In a written statement, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Oncu Keceli said Israel’s announcement was “yet another example” of actions by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government that seek to fuel instability “at both the regional and global levels.” Keceli said the move reflected Israel’s “expansionist policies” and an effort to block international recognition of the State of Palestine.
Jerusalem Post: Turkey Seeks to Deploy Radars in Syria
Turkey has been trying to deploy radar systems on Syrian soil in recent weeks, The Jerusalem Post reported on December 25, citing two Western intelligence sources.
According to the report, placing Turkish radars inside Syria would significantly restrict the Israel Air Force’s freedom of action in Syrian airspace, since Turkish systems would be able to detect Israeli aircraft operating over the country. Turkish personnel would reportedly operate the radars, giving Ankara access to and control over the intelligence collected.
The move would also complicate Israel’s ability to strike targets in Iran, the report added, noting that Israeli aircraft frequently use Syrian airspace as a transit route to Iran.
Turkish FM Meets Hamas Officials in Ankara on Gaza Ceasefire
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met with Hamas political bureau officials in Ankara on December 24 to discuss the ceasefire in Gaza and efforts to advance the agreement to its second phase, Reuters reported, citing a Turkish Foreign Ministry source.
According to the source, Hamas officials told Fidan they had fulfilled their obligations under the ceasefire arrangement, but claimed that Israel’s continued strikes on Gaza were aimed at preventing the deal from progressing to the next stage.
The Hamas representatives also said humanitarian aid reaching Gaza remained insufficient and stressed that additional supplies — including medicine, housing equipment and fuel — were urgently needed, the source added.
Ankara Denies Claims of New Drone Strike in Black Sea
A video circulating on social media on December 23 alleged that a Turkish-flagged cargo ship traveling from Ukraine to Turkey had been hit by a kamikaze drone in international waters of the Black Sea, which would have marked the fourth Turkish vessel attacked by drones in 10 days.
Turkey’s Directorate of Communications Disinformation Combat Center (DMM) rejected the claim on December 24, stating that the footage being shared is old and unrelated to any current incident.
“The footage in question has been determined to have been recorded on Dec. 13, 2025, and has no connection whatsoever to today or any current event,” the DMM said.
Montenegro Restores Visa-Free Travel for Turkish Citizens
Montenegro has reinstated its visa-free travel regime for Turkish citizens after suspending it, while shortening the allowed stay from 90 to 30 days. In a statement on its official website, the Montenegrin government said the temporary visa requirement for Turkish nationals had been lifted, but that visa-free stays would now be limited to 30 days.
The earlier suspension followed reports of a knife attack in the capital, Podgorica, in October, in which Turkish citizens were initially alleged to have been involved. A Montenegrin court later found that two Turkish nationals detained in connection with the incident had no links to the attack and ordered their release.
The Montenegrin government also said they have strengthened cooperation with Turkish authorities and tightened security and immigration controls.
Sources within Turkey’s Foreign Ministry said Montenegro has formally notified Ankara of the decision to reinstate visa-free entry for Turkish citizens.
Turkish Airlines to Launch Daily Istanbul–Yerevan Flights in March 2026
Turkish Airlines (THY) will launch daily flights between Istanbul and the Armenian capital Yerevan starting March 11, 2026, according to flight schedule information shared by Serdar Kilic, a former ambassador and Turkey’s special envoy for Armenia relations.
The Istanbul–Yerevan–Istanbul route will initially operate seven times per week. The number of weekly flights is scheduled to rise to 10 as of May 14, 2026, and to 14 from June 15, 2026.
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