ANALYSIS
"Turkey’s Security Approach in Northern Syria" by Mustafa Enes Esen, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
Turkey’s opposition to an independent SDF military structure, alongside Damascus’s efforts to reassert authority in eastern Syria, has made the status of the YPG, the SDF’s armed wing, a central issue in the negotiations, including the most recent talks in December.
As long as the YPG retains an independent military structure, Turkey will likely continue to treat it as a security threat. The talks between Damascus and the SDF have postponed confrontation but have not resolved the underlying conflict. Tensions between Turkey, Damascus, and the SDF will persist without a substantive agreement.
"From arms supplier to security actor: Turkey’s expanding role in the African Sahel" by Nesreen Al-Sabahy, Ahram
At the strategic level, Turkey’s expanding presence in the Sahel is reshaping regional power balances. It reduces local dependence on Western military intervention, increases Ankara’s influence over national security decision-making, and deepens competition with France, while offering an alternative to Russian security models.
As French and American roles continue to recede, Turkey has succeeded in filling part of the security vacuum, embedding itself within local defense structures and extending its influence beyond military cooperation into the core of regional security governance—potentially reshaping the competitive landscape of the Sahel in the years ahead.
"Is Türkiye Lebanon’s New Iran?" by Mohanad Hage Ali, Carnegie Middle East Center
Given the potential impact of such a Lebanese realignment on Türkiye’s East Mediterranean strategy, Ankara appears to be leveraging its influence in Damascus and Beirut to preempt any attempt to reshape Lebanon’s regional direction. The Turkish sources quoted in Al-Akhbar suggest an interest in influencing Sunni representation in the next parliamentary elections, scheduled for May.
Regardless of Türkiye’s next moves in Lebanon, it would be prudent for Beirut to factor Türkiye’s influence and role in Syria into its own regional approach with regard to maritime demarcation and more, rather than maintaining an exclusive focus on the United States and Israel. However, if Türkiye’s approach in Lebanon aims to replicate Tehran’s, this time through the Sunni community, Beirut has every reason to be concerned.
POLITICS
DEM Party Delegation Holds Talks with AK Party, to Meet with CHP Leader
As parties participating in the parliamentary commission submitted their reports to Parliament, a delegation from the DEM Party—comprising Pervin Buldan, Mithat Sancar, and Faik Ozgur Erol—visited the ruling AK Party and the Workers' Party of Turkey (TIP) on December 20.
During the meeting at Parliament, AK Party Group Chairman Abdullah Guler stated that the two sides had exchanged views. Buldan remarked, "We have entered a period where a legal basis is needed. Our consultations will continue at this stage and in the process that follows."
The delegation subsequently met with TIP General Chairman Erkan Bas and party lawmakers. Following the consultation, Bas said, "We are in a more hopeful position as a result of the meeting," while Buldan described the discussion as very productive.
Pro-Kurdish DEM Party to Hold Diyarbakir Rally Demanding Ocalan’s Release
Turkey’s pro-Kurdish Peoples Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) announced plans to hold a rally in the southeastern city of Diyarbakir on January 4 to demand the release of jailed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Ocalan. The demonstration is scheduled to take place in Istasyon Square.
Party officials announced the rally at a press conference in Diyarbakir’s Sur district on December 17. DEM Party Co-chair Tuncer Bakirhan, party lawmakers, and local officials attended the briefing.
Responding to journalists’ questions about the planned rally, Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahceli said there was no need to overreact to the event.
“The fact that the DEM Party is holding a rally is not something to be exaggerated or made into an issue. There is nothing wrong with the rally. Of course, they can gather and voice their expectations, demands, and thoughts. Attributing extraordinary meaning to an ordinary event will have no consequences,” Bahceli said.
Ankara Drafts Individual Legal Measures for PKK Members
The Turkish government is drafting individualized legal measures for members of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), including those in prison and those in PKK camps outside the country, as part of ongoing peace talks, according to a report published on December 15 by Nevzat Cicek, editor-in-chief of the Turkish edition of the Independent.
Cicek wrote that the draft regulation will focus on two main areas: facilitating the return to Turkey of PKK members who have not been involved in criminal acts, and redefining the legal status of those currently jailed on PKK- or Kurdistan Communities Union (KCK)-related charges. Around 4,200 people convicted or detained on PKK-KCK membership charges are currently held in Turkish prisons, while the number of PKK members based outside Turkey is estimated at between 950 and 1,050, he reported.
The planned legislation is expected to take the form of a special law. It will aim to comply with the constitutional principle of equality while preventing its scope from being extended to other groups, such as individuals convicted on terrorism-related charges over alleged links to the Gulen movement.
Tools under consideration include time limits, supervised release and similar mechanisms, Cicek wrote, adding that the authorities intend to conduct assessments on an individual basis, rather than collectively.
Ozel Criticizes European Social Democrats for Close Ties with Erdogan
Speaking at the PES leaders’ meeting in Brussels on December 18, CHP leader Ozgur Ozel criticised European social democratic parties for maintaining close and “overly accommodating” relations with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, singling out UK Prime Minister and Labour Party leader Keir Starmer.
Ozel stressed that 16 mayors, including Istanbul’s elected mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, and 102 politicians from his party are currently imprisoned in Turkey.
He warned that Europe cannot credibly claim to defend democracy while engaging authoritarian leaders for the sake of short-term stability, arguing that real and lasting stability comes only from democracy, not from transactional relationships with autocrats.
ECONOMY
Turkey’s 2024 GDP Per Capita 28 Percent Below EU Average
Turkey’s 2024 gross domestic product (GDP) per capita index based on purchasing power parity (PPP) stood at 72, compared to an average of 100 for the 27 European Union (EU) member states, according to data released by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) on December 17. The data reveal that Turkey’s GDP per capita was 28 percent below the EU average.
Among the 36 countries included in the comparison, Luxembourg recorded the highest GDP per capita index at 245, while Bosnia and Herzegovina had the lowest at 35.
The data also showed that actual individual consumption (AIC) per capita in Turkey was 71, compared with an EU average of 100, placing the country 29 per cent below the EU-27 average in this category. AIC includes goods and services that consumers either pay for directly or receive free of charge from the state or non-profit institutions, such as education and health care.
Social Protection Spending Surges 84 Percent in 2024
Social protection spending in Turkey increased by 84.1 percent compared to the previous year, reaching 4.96 trillion lira in 2024, according to data released by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat).
The share of social protection expenditures in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) stood at 11.1 percent in 2024. By comparison, the average ratio of social spending to GDP in OECD countries was 21.23 percent in 2024.
When broken down by risk and needs groups, spending on pensioners and the elderly accounted for the largest share at 5.1 percent of GDP, followed by spending on illness and healthcare at 3.4 percent.
The number of pension payments under social protection rose from 17,719,000 in 2023 to 18,344,000 in 2024, meaning that roughly one-fifth of the country's population was covered by social spending. Of these beneficiaries, 7,831,000 were women.
2025 Anti-Poverty Spending Exceeds 2024 Total in First 10 Months
Between January and October 2025, the Ministry of Family and Social Services spent more on combating poverty than it did in the entire year of 2024. Public spending on poverty alleviation reached 173.33 billion lira in the first ten months of 2025, compared to 166.38 billion lira for all of 2024.
This outlay accounts for 54 per cent of the ministry’s total 2026 budget of 531.90 billion lira. Under the 2026 budget, 284.47 billion lira has been earmarked for poverty alleviation programs.
Gain Medya Executives Arrested in Financial Crime Investigation
Teams from the Istanbul Provincial Gendarmerie Command carried out raids on Gain Medya and its affiliated companies on the morning of December 16, detaining three people in an operation targeting the Turkey-based streaming platform over alleged illegal betting and forming a criminal organization. The detainees were identified as company executives Berkin Kaya, Barbaros Resat Gulcan and Selahattin Aydin.
In a statement, the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office said the operation is part of a broader investigation into Anahat Holding, the parent company of Gain Medya, on accusations of establishing a criminal organization, illegal betting and money laundering, according to the statement.
Prosecutors said companies in which Kaya was a partner did not have sufficient capital structure or commercial activity to justify “numerous high-value cash deposits and withdrawals” of the scale identified during the probe.
Authorities also appointed the Savings Deposit Insurance Fund (TMSF) as trustee over seven companies affiliated with the holding. On December 19, Aydin, Kaya and Gulcan were formally arrested.
Prosecutors Issue Detention Warrants in Massive Fake Invoice Tax Fraud Case
Prosecutors in Istanbul have issued detention warrants for 43 individuals as part of an investigation into an alleged large-scale fake invoicing scheme that authorities say was used to reduce corporate tax obligations and secure improper value-added tax (VAT) refunds.
The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office announced that the suspects include a senior government-licensed tax auditor, 25 accountants, and 11 company executives and partners linked to three companies named in the case file. Authorities have taken 35 of the suspects into custody.
According to prosecutors, the network allegedly set up companies and issued invoices for fictitious transactions in 2020 and 2021. The total value of these invoices, including VAT, was estimated at about 6.97 billion Turkish lira, roughly 773 million dollars at the time.
The prosecutor’s office stated that the scheme resulted in direct public losses of approximately 69,552,840 Turkish lira through improper VAT refund claims.
World Bank and Vakifbank to Mobilize Up to 1.5 Billion Euros for Turkish SMEs
The World Bank announced a partnership with Vakifbank to mobilize up to 1.5 billion euros (approximately 1.76 billion dollars) to expand access to finance for micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) in the country.
The project will be backed by a 750‑million‑euro guarantee from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), which will be used to secure a 10‑year financing facility provided by international commercial lenders, the World Bank said on December 16.
HUMAN RIGHTS
ECHR Orders Retrial in Cases Involving 2,420 People
The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) issued another landmark ruling against Turkey on December 16, finding that the rights of 2,420 individuals had been violated in a series of cases and ordering retrials.
The judgment concerns cases grouped under the names Bozyokus, Karsli, and Seyhan. The Court ruled that the applicants’ right to a fair trial and the principle of “no crime or punishment without law” had been breached.
With this latest set of decisions, the total number of individuals for whom the ECHR has identified similar violations, particularly in cases based on the use of the ByLock messaging application, has reached 6,884.
Of these, 3,851 people were found to have suffered violations of Article 5 of the European Convention on Human Rights, which protects the right to liberty and security. In addition, 1,808 individuals were found to have been subjected to violations of Article 7, which enshrines the principle that there can be no punishment without law.
The total compensation arising from these rulings, expected to be recovered from the responsible judges and prosecutors, now stands at 18.8 million euros.
Turkey Accused of Arbitrarily Restricting Uyghurs with Security Codes
Turkish authorities have arbitrarily assigned so-called “restriction codes” to some Uyghurs, as well as other refugees and migrants, labeling them public-security threats often without evidence or clear justification, Human Rights Watch (HRW) reported.
The Turkish government has cited legislation relating to foreigners and international protection to justify the use of these codes. However, the criteria and reasoning behind why these codes are imposed remain opaque. The report states that the Chinese government has provided Turkish authorities with lists of individuals Beijing classifies as terrorists, in some cases solely because of peaceful activism or expressions of Uyghur identity. HRW said that Turkish authorities later flagged some of the people named on these lists with restriction codes.
Turkish law allows individuals to appeal deportation decisions. However, HRW, citing a lawyer who has lodged multiple such appeals, reported that judges frequently issue negative rulings as soon as they see restriction codes in a person’s file.
FOREIGN POLICY
Top Officials from Qatar, Egypt and Turkey Meet Trump Envoy on Ceasefire Progress
Senior officials from Qatar, Egypt and Turkey met with Steve Witkoff, former US President Donald Trump’s special envoy, on December 19 to review the first stage of the ceasefire that came into effect on October 10. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan represented Turkey.
Following the talks in Miami, a statement posted by Witkoff on X reported progress in the first phase of the peace agreement, highlighting expanded humanitarian assistance, the return of hostage bodies, partial withdrawals of forces and a reduction in hostilities.
The statement called for “the near-term establishment and operationalization” of a transitional administration, which is scheduled to be created in the second phase of the agreement. It added that consultations on implementing the deal would continue in the coming weeks.
Turkey Excluded from CENTCOM Gaza Stabilization Talks in Doha
Turkey was not invited to a conference convened by US Central Command (CENTCOM) in Doha on December 16 to discuss a proposed international stabilization force for the Gaza Strip, the Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported. Representatives from more than 45 countries were invited to attend.
Citing a Western diplomat and an Arab source close to Ankara, the newspaper said Turkey’s absence from the guest list appeared to stem from Israel’s veto of Turkish participation in the planned stabilization force.
Despite its exclusion from the Doha talks, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on December 18 that Turkey is ready to take part in an international stabilization force for Gaza.
Fidan stated that discussions are underway behind closed doors on how to structure a security force together with a “peace board” and day-to-day executive mechanisms, and said he expects clearer outcomes in the coming weeks.
He underlined that Ankara remains prepared to contribute militarily, humanitarianly and technically if the stabilization plan proceeds.
Ankara Warns Patience with SDF “Running Out” as Talks with Damascus Intensify
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on December 18 that Ankara does not want to resort to military means against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), but warned that Turkey’s “patience is running out.”
His remarks come as Syrian, Kurdish and US officials scramble to demonstrate progress before a year-end deadline in stalled negotiations aimed at integrating Kurdish-led forces into the Syrian state, according to several people involved in or familiar with the talks, Reuters reported.
Discussions have intensified in recent days despite mounting frustration over repeated delays. The interim Syrian government has submitted a proposal to the Kurdish-led SDF, which controls much of northeastern Syria, five of the sources said.
Under the proposal, Damascus signaled willingness to see the SDF reorganize its roughly 50,000 fighters into three main divisions and smaller brigades, on the condition that the SDF relinquish parts of its command structure and allow other Syrian army units to deploy in its territory, according to one Syrian, one Western and three Kurdish officials.
Most of the sources said any agreement reached by the end of the year is expected to fall short of full integration of the SDF into the Syrian military and other state institutions.
A Syrian official described the year-end deadline for integration as firm, saying that only “irreversible steps” by the SDF could justify an extension.
Kurdish officials, however, have played down the importance of the deadline and emphasized their commitment to a comprehensive settlement. “The most reliable guarantee for the agreement’s continued validity lies in its content, not timeframe,” said Sihanouk Dibo, a senior official of the Syrian autonomous administration, adding that it could take until mid‑2026 to resolve all aspects of the deal.
Asked about the developments, Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler said Ankara has contingency plans for all possible scenarios. He underlined that the integration of the SDF into the Syrian army as a unified force is unacceptable. "They absolutely need to be integrated into the Syrian army individually. Otherwise, it's not integration. We will not back down from our demand for individual integration," he said.
Report: Ankara Uses “Green Passports” to Bypass Stalled EU Visa Liberalisation
Turkey is in no rush to secure full EU visa-free travel for all its citizens because many members of its state-linked and professional elite already enter the Schengen area without visas using special “green passports,” according to a report in Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ). Green passports give visa-free entry to most EU states for holders and their families.
The exact number of green passports is unclear, FAZ reported. A ruling-party MP spoke of 1.7 million in 2019, and official printing data suggest 1.8 million were produced in 2023, with reports that more green than regular passports were printed in mid‑2024 — a striking figure given an estimated 9–10 million valid Turkish passports in total.
EU states could, in theory, revoke recognition of these special passports, but have not done so, suggesting that few holders overstay or lodge asylum claims. Migration expert Gerald Knaus describes the current situation as a “half‑in” equilibrium: the EU avoids a politically sensitive debate on full visa-free travel for all Turks, while Turkey effectively decides which citizens enjoy easy access through green passports.
Bloomberg: Ankara Explores Options to Return Russian S-400 System
Turkey is exploring ways to return the Russian‑made S‑400 air defense system it acquired nearly a decade ago, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
According to these sources, President Erdogan raised the issue with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a recent meeting in Turkmenistan, following earlier technical and political contacts between officials from both countries.
Ankara is reportedly also seeking reimbursement for the billions of dollars it paid for the S‑400s. One option under consideration would be to offset the cost against Turkey’s imports of Russian oil and natural gas, though such an arrangement would require separate, detailed negotiations, the sources said.
Moscow, however, has publicly denied that the S-400 issue was on the agenda. The Russian state-owned news agency TASS, citing Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, reported that the talks between Putin and Erdogan did not include a discussion of the Russian S-400 air defense systems. Peskov stressed that the subject “was not discussed” by the two leaders.
Turkey Reports Three Drone Incidents Near Black Sea within Five Days
Turkey shot down a drone approaching its airspace from the Black Sea on December 15 after it reportedly lost control, the Defense Ministry announced.
In a written statement, the ministry said the device was “detected and tracked as part of routine procedures” and identified as “an unmanned aerial vehicle that had lost control.” Turkish forces then scrambled F-16 fighter jets and, “to prevent any adverse consequences, it was shot down in a safe area outside a populated area,” the statement added.
Separately, the Interior Ministry reported on December 19 that a second unmanned aerial vehicle had been discovered near the city of Izmit, about 30 kilometers south of the Black Sea. Authorities said they believe the drone is Russian-made.
According to the Interior Ministry, initial assessments indicate the drone is likely an Orlan-10 model, commonly used for reconnaissance and surveillance. The ministry noted that a formal investigation is underway. A third drone was found on December 20 in an empty field near Balikesir. Officials transported the drone to Ankara for further analysis.
Turkey and Somalia Sign Agreement to Regulate Fishing in Somali Waters
On December 17, the Turkish Armed Forces Pension Fund (OYAK) signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Somalia’s Ministry of Fisheries and Blue Economy at OYAK headquarters in Ankara to centralize and regulate fishing activities in Somali waters. Senior Turkish and Somali officials, including Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler and Somalia’s ministers responsible for ports and fisheries, attended the signing ceremony.
Under the deal, a single authority will license, monitor, and regulate all fishing activities in Somalia’s territorial waters and exclusive economic zone. The parties established a joint company, SOMTURK, in Somalia on December 11.
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