ANALYSIS
"To Halt the Jihadist Advance in Somalia, Work with Turkey and the UAE" by Ido Levy, The Washington Institute
Turkey and the United Arab Emirates have been vying for influence in the Horn of Africa, not only in Somalia, but also to varying degrees in Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Sudan. Although they engaged in zero-sum competition in Somalia in the past, they have since come to an unwritten power-sharing arrangement there as part of a wider rapprochement. Both countries have also been training the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) forces. Improving these training initiatives and renewing funding for the AU mission could provide the push needed to stop al-Shabab, so the United States should work with each country to achieve this.
The Turkish and Emirati initiatives stand out as the most extensive and scalable training missions in Somalia. The Danab program is the highest-quality effort but smaller scale, while the EU Training Mission is not sufficiently large or hands-on, even if it may provide some supplemental assistance. Turkey and the UAE's performance in Somalia might also show whether they are able to take on bigger roles in other areas of U.S. interest, such as maritime security and Syria.
POLITICS
MHP Leader Bahceli Defends Arrested Nationalist Figure, Stirring Political Tensions
Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahceli, on August 19, defended Selahattin Yilmaz, a nationalist underworld figure arrested in an organized crime probe. Bahceli called Yilmaz "my comrade and a companion in our cause," adding that he believes Yilmaz will be cleared of all charges. Yilmaz has previously appeared publicly with Alaattin Cakici, another convicted crime boss who had met Bahceli in the past.
Yilmaz was detained last week during operations in five provinces and jailed along with nine others. They face accusations of forming a criminal organization and issuing threats. Local media reported that police seized firearms and ammunition during the raids.
Bahceli's remarks drew renewed attention to possible strain between his party and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party). Main opposition leader Ozgur Ozel said Bahceli's statement was aimed at his governing partner, arguing that the probe and the arrest of a figure linked to MHP circles signal friction within the ruling alliance.
In a written statement on August 23, Bahceli said, "No one will be able to sow discord among the People's Alliance."
Opposition MP Alleges $1.4 Billion Missing From Iraq–Turkey Pipeline Fees
Opposition lawmaker Deniz Yavuzyilmaz of the Republican People's Party has alleged that a large portion of transport fees paid by Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) for crude shipments through the Iraq–Turkey Pipeline remains unaccounted for.
Yavuzyilmaz said on August 20 that Deloitte-verified KRG oil reports show $2.32 billion in "tariff payments to Turkish Energy Company," a Jersey-registered firm linked to Turkey's role in the trade, covering the period from May 2014 to September 2018.
He claimed that $904 million of this amount was transferred to state pipeline operator BOTAS, while $1.416 billion could not be accounted for. Yavuzyilmaz said he would include these findings in a filing seeking a trial of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the Constitutional Court, which has the authority to convene as a Supreme Criminal Tribunal.
The Center for Combating Disinformation (DMM) denied the allegations in a statement, saying BOTAS generated $1.48 billion in revenue from oil transportation between 2014 and 2018.
In a follow-up response, Yavuzyilmaz accused DMM of manipulating the data by altering the date ranges and maintained that at least $1.15 billion had gone missing.
Beyoglu Mayor Arrested in Istanbul Municipality Probe
Forty-four people detained in an investigation into Istanbul Municipality were taken to court on the morning of August 19. Twenty-four people referred to the court under judicial control were released.
Seventeen of the remaining 20 people were arrested, including Beyoğlu Mayor İnan Güney. The Interior Ministry announced that Mayor Guney has been suspended from office following his arrest.
A deputy mayoral election was held in Beyoğlu Municipality on August 22 to replace Guney. CHP candidate Sefer Karaahmetoğlu won the election, receiving 16 votes in the final round, while AK Party candidate Süleyman Baba received 14.
ECONOMY
Turkey Ends Costly Lira Protection Deposit Scheme
Turkey has officially ended its foreign-exchange protected deposit scheme, a program designed to shield lira deposits from currency depreciation but estimated to have cost around $60 billion.
The Central Bank announced on August 22 that, starting August 23, banks will no longer open or renew accounts under the scheme. Existing accounts will remain active until they reach maturity. Launched in late 2021, the program was designed to stabilize the lira during a period of sharp depreciation.
The Central Bank also updated rules on reserve requirement remuneration and commission practices linked to the scheme.
Over Half of Turkish Households Rank in Lower Socioeconomic Groups
More than half of Turkey's households fall into the lower end of the socioeconomic scale, according to new data released by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat).
On August 18, TurkStat published a comprehensive socioeconomic status (SES) index for the country's 26 million households for the first time. The results, based on data from 2022 to 2024 with 2023 as the reference year, place households into seven categories ranging from "A+" (highest) to "E" (lowest).
The findings show that just 1.1% of households are in the top "A+" group, while 16.7% fall into the lowest "E" category. When combined with the adjacent "D" and "C2" groups, households in the lower half account for 51.8%. By contrast, only 12.1% of households are in the top two categories, "A+" and "A."
The data also highlight regional disparities. More than 28% of households in the top two categories are located in Istanbul, followed by 11.5% in Ankara and 6.7% in Izmir.
TurkStat said the SES index will next be updated in August 2028.
Farmers' Debt to Ziraat Bank Rises Sharply
Ziraat Bank, the main credit provider for farmers, released its financial results for the first half of 2025, showing a steep rise in agricultural debt. Farmers' debt to the bank increased by 50.8% compared to the same period last year, reaching 839.9 billion lira.
Closely monitored farmer support loans increased by 76.7% in the same period, reaching 33.6 billion lira. Of this amount, only 3 billion lira were restructured, while the remaining 30 billion lira were left outside the restructuring program. The bank's total closely monitored loan stock also climbed, rising from 191.4 billion lira in the first half of 2024 to 290.6 billion lira in 2025.
Despite its founding purpose to support agriculture and farmers, the share of agricultural loans in the bank's total lending has continued to decline. Agricultural loans now make up 22.9% of total lending, down from 26.8% at the end of 2024.
Foreign Arrivals to Turkey Drop 5% in July
The number of foreign visitors to Turkey fell 5% in July compared to a year earlier, dropping to 6.97 million, the Tourism Ministry reported on August 22. The figure stood at 7.33 million in July 2024 and 7.14 million in July 2023.
Germany was the top source market with 981,005 visitors, followed by Russia with 953,733 and the United Kingdom with 597,155. Poland and the Netherlands rounded out the top five.
Tourism industry representatives said rising prices in Turkey have dampened demand.
Turkey Starts Building Railway to Link Kars with Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan
Turkey has started construction on a new railway line that will connect its northeastern Kars province to Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan exclave. The 224-kilometer (140-mile) line will link Turkey's Dilucu border gate with Nakhchivan and connect to the main railway network in Kars, Transport Minister Abdulkadir Uraloglu said during the groundbreaking ceremony.
The railway is designed to handle 5.5 million passengers and 15 million metric tons of cargo each year.
"This corridor will boost economic cooperation between Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Armenia, while also supporting peace in the region," Uraloglu said. He noted that the project could help open borders and normalize diplomatic ties in the Southern Caucasus.
Once the sections of the railway in Nakhchivan, Armenia, and mainland Azerbaijan are completed, the route will create a more efficient international trade link stretching from China to Britain, Uraloglu added.
Turkish Airlines to Buy Minority Stake in Spain's Air Europa
Turkish Airlines announced on August 19 in a statement to Turkey's Public Disclosure Platform (KAP) that Spain's Air Europa has accepted its €300 million ($350 million) offer to acquire a minority stake in the debt-laden carrier.
The airline said the exact size of the stake will be determined after "technical and financial adjustments" at closing. The deal is expected to be finalized within six to 12 months, pending regulatory approvals.
HUMAN RIGHTS
EU Lawmakers Urge Release of Turkish Youth Delegate Enes Hocaogullari
Thirty-one members of the European Parliament have urged the European Commission to take urgent diplomatic and political action for the release of Enes Hocaogullari, a 23-year-old activist and Turkey's youth delegate to the Council of Europe. He was arrested earlier this month after a speech in Strasbourg criticizing police violence and the detention of opposition mayors.
In a letter dated August 19, addressed to senior EU officials including Commission Vice President Kaja Kallas, Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos, and Commissioner for the Mediterranean Dubravka Suica, the MEPs called for Hocaogullari's "immediate and unconditional release" and an end to what they described as "all forms of judicial harassment" against him.
"The mass detention of peaceful protesters and the systematic removal of elected officials are all clear signs of a broader erosion of democratic institutions and fundamental freedoms in the country," the lawmakers wrote.
FOREIGN POLICY
Turkey to Host 2026 NATO Summit in Ankara
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced on August 19 that the 2026 NATO summit will be held on July 7–8 at the Bestepe presidential compound in Ankara.
Rutte thanked Turkey for hosting the summit and said allied leaders will continue efforts to make NATO "a stronger, fairer and more lethal Alliance, ready to respond to the critical challenges to our security."
This will be the second NATO summit hosted by Turkey. The first took place in Istanbul in 2004.
US Reaffirms Turkey's Exclusion from F-35 Program Over S-400s
The US Department of State has reiterated that Turkey cannot return to the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program unless it abandons its Russian-made S-400 air defense system, according to a formal response sent to lawmakers.
In a letter dated August 20 and signed by Paul D. Guaglianone, senior official at the Bureau of Legislative Affairs, the State Department said Washington's stance "has not changed," stressing that Turkey's possession of the S-400 remains incompatible with participation in the F-35 program.
"The US government is fully committed to protecting defense and intelligence assets and complying with US law, including CAATSA," the letter said.
The response came after a bipartisan group of 40 lawmakers, led by Representatives Chris Pappas, Gus Bilirakis, Dina Titus, and Nicole Malliotakis, urged continued sanctions on Ankara in an August 7 letter.
Turkey Informally Restricts Ports for Ships with Israeli Connections
Turkish port authorities have begun informally requiring shipping agents to provide letters confirming that vessels are not linked to Israel and are not carrying military or hazardous cargo destined for the country, Reuters reported, citing two shipping sources.
The sources said the harbour master's office gave verbal instructions to port agents, but no official circular has been issued. One source noted that the directive applies to ports across Turkey.
According to a second source, ships arriving directly from Israel or heading to Israeli ports will no longer be allowed to dock at Turkish ports, including in the northwestern province of Kocaeli. Turkish-flagged vessels will also be prohibited from calling at Israeli ports.
Turkey Says Ceasefire Needed Before Any Ukraine Peacekeeping Mission
Turkey believes a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine must be secured before it and other states can decide on participating in a peacekeeping mission as part of security guarantees for Ukraine, a Defense Ministry source told Reuters on August 21.
"It is necessary to first establish a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, then define the framework of the mission with a clear mandate, and clarify the extent of each country's contribution," the Turkish source said.
Zelensky Open to Meeting Putin in Neutral European Country
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he is open to meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin in a "neutral" European country, suggesting Turkey, Switzerland, or Austria as possible venues. However, he stressed that such a meeting could only take place after allies agree on security guarantees for Ukraine to deter future Russian attacks once the war ends.
"Switzerland, Austria – we agree… For us, Turkey is a NATO country and part of Europe. And we are not opposed," Zelensky said when asked about potential locations.
He also pressed Western allies, saying Ukraine expects clarity on the structure of security guarantees within the next seven to ten days. "We need to understand which country will be ready to do what at each specific moment," Zelensky said.
Japan's Defense Minister Explores Drone Cooperation During Ankara Visit
Japan's Defense Minister Gen Nakatani discussed defense industry cooperation and possible purchases of Turkish-made drones during a visit to Ankara on August 19, as Tokyo looks to expand the role of unmanned systems in its military. Nakatani is the first Japanese defense minister to make an official trip to Turkey.
After his meeting with Nakatani, Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler said Ankara aims to deepen defense industry and military cooperation with Japan, according to a statement from his office.
Nakatani and his delegation later traveled to Istanbul, where they toured naval shipyards. They also visited drone manufacturer Baykar, where Chairman Selcuk Bayraktar and General Manager Haluk Bayraktar briefed them on the company's work. The visit concluded with a stop at Turkish Aerospace Industries (TUSAS).
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