ANALYSIS
"A Sigh of Relief in Iraqi Kurdistan" by Wladimir van Wilgenburg, Carnegie Middle East Center
According to a report by the Community Peacemaker Teams, following the disarmament ceremony Turkish military strikes decreased by 97 percent compared to the previous month. Apart from this, tensions have also significantly decreased between the KDP and PKK. The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency recently reported that "PKK disarmament, if completed, is likely to have a positive effect on stability in northern Iraq, assuming it is accompanied by a withdrawal of Turkish military forces." The Iraqi government also welcomed the process and called for a Turkish withdrawal from Iraq, although Turkey is still reportedly establishing new bases inside the country.
The peace process with Turkey, if successful, could have a major impact on the future of Iraqi Kurdistan, including its economy, tourism industry, and stability. It could also further improve relations between Iraq and Turkey, and between the Iraqi Kurdish parties and Turkey, and lead to the return of refugees from the Makhmour camp. A successful process would end the Turkish flight ban on Sulaymaniyah and restore Turkish-PUK relations. Furthermore, for the KDP, the peace process could remove what it sees as territorial encroachment from a Turkish Kurdish party into Iraqi Kurdistan. Time will tell how much light there is at the end of this tunnel.
"Can Turkey Deliver on Its Armament Ambitions?" by Ryan Gingeras, Foreign Policy
A closer look at Turkey's security sector offers a somewhat different picture. Much of what promises to be at the forefront of Turkish defense capability is still in development, meaning that it is too soon to say how sophisticated or dependable Turkey's growing arsenal will be.
While the pace and intensity of Turkey's progress as an arms manufacturer is admirable, overhyped expectations may be on a collision course with reality.
Much of what Turkey hopes to produce remains hypothetical. Even with extensive testing, it is not yet clear whether aircraft such as the Kaan or tanks such as the Altay can hold their own in battle. Turkish prototypes must contend with proven systems with established pedigrees. They will also likely will face off against crews who have trained longer and more comprehensively on established platforms. In this regard, Turkey and the purchasers of its military hardware may encounter serious short- to medium-term challenges.
"China's planned Turkish EV factories have yet to power up", The Economist
Yet a year down the line, despite reports the company would accelerate work on the plant at the expense of one in Hungary, things have not progressed much. The factory is supposed to open next year, but there are no signs of construction save for a few containers and the occasional dump truck.
Chinese investments in Turkey amount to only some $5bn, lower than in Saudi Arabia, Egypt or Iraq. Politics is no longer the main obstacle. Turkey has toned down its criticism of China's treatment of its Uyghurs, a Turkic ethnic group. The biggest brake is instead Turkey's rule-of-law record. Mr Erdogan and his inner circle enjoy nearly unchecked power. "Regulations and tariff decisions are made overnight without any consultations with the key actors," says Ceren Ergenc of the Centre for European Policy Studies, a Brussels think-tank. "China perceives that as a high risk."
Fear of pushback from the EU may explain why work in Manisa has slowed. Firms like BYD are hedging their bets, says Ms Ergenc, and waiting for the EU and China to settle their EV tariff dispute. Local officials and other analysts say BYD will finish the factory, though perhaps not on time. Turkey may be a convenient backdoor to the EU, but the Chinese have not yet prised it open.
POLITICS
Police Detain Beyoglu Mayor and 43 Others in Istanbul Raids
Turkish police detained Beyoglu Mayor Inan Guney and 43 others on August 15 during a large operation targeting opposition-run institutions in Istanbul. Officers searched the Beyoglu Municipality building and seized digital materials.
Raids were carried out early in the morning across the city. Those taken into custody included Yigit Oguz Duman, a senior adviser to the mayor, as well as employees of the CHP-run Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IBB)-affiliated companies Medya A.S. and Kultur A.S.
The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor's Office said the suspects are accused of belonging to a criminal network allegedly tied to Murat Ongun, a senior adviser to jailed Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu. Charges include running a criminal organization for profit, bribery, fraud, and unlawful access to personal data.
CHP leader Ozgur Ozel condemned the arrests, referring to the ninth wave of operations against the party, he wrote on X: "Even if you carry out 99 series [of operations], you won't succeed. This is a political operation orchestrated by the ruling party. They trust their prosecutors and gangs; I trust the people."
Six CHP Mayors, Including Aydin's Ozlem Cercioglu, Defect to Erdogan's AKP
Nine opposition politicians, including six mayors from Turkey's main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), have joined President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party). The CHP said the defections were forced by threats, intimidation, and political pressure amid an ongoing crackdown on the party.
The most high-profile defector is Ozlem Cercioglu, mayor of the western city of Aydin, who had led the municipality under the CHP since 2009. She joined the AK Party on August 14 with eight district mayors at a ceremony marking the party's 24th anniversary.
Speculation about Cercioglu's resignation began on August 13 after media reports suggested she would quit the CHP. That same day, Erdogan hinted that new figures were preparing to join his party. On August 14, Cercioglu confirmed her departure on X, saying efforts to resolve disputes within the CHP had failed and accusing the party of "anti-democratic practices," though she gave no details.
"I have never been afraid of the judiciary or of being tried. For reasons of political ethics, I will not disclose the problems I faced, but I can explain them one by one if necessary," Cercioglu said during the ceremony.
CHP leader Ozgur Ozel claimed Cercioglu was pressured to join the AKP under threat of being implicated in the Aktas case. "They told her, 'You worked with Aziz Ihsan Aktas. Either you go to prison or you join our party.' That's all there is," Ozel said. He also accused Cercioglu of "stealing" the votes entrusted to her by the people of Aydin through her decision to defect.
CHP Leader Accuses Former AK Party Official of $2 Million Bribery Attempt
CHP Chairman Ozgur Ozel has accused a former senior figure in the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) of trying to pressure a jailed businessman into giving false testimony and paying $2 million in exchange for his release.
Speaking at a press conference on August 14, Ozel said that Mucahit Birinci, a lawyer and former member of the AKP's Central Decision and Executive Board, visited businessman Murat Kapki—who is jailed in a corruption and terrorism probe targeting the Istanbul Municipality—and attempted to coerce him into signing a fabricated statement.
According to Ozel, Birinci handed Kapki a one-and-a-half-page document and told him, "Sign this and pay $2 million, and you'll be released." Ozel claimed the statement sought to fabricate meetings, name individuals, and link them to alleged criminal activity.
The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor's Office announced shortly after Ozel's remarks that it had opened an investigation into Birinci. The office said the probe was based on media and social media reports about the alleged meeting between Birinci and Kapki in prison.
On August 17, the AK Party Istanbul Provincial Directorate decided to launch disciplinary proceedings against Mucahit Birinci, seeking his permanent expulsion from the party. Shortly after the expulsion request, Birinci announced his resignation.
Imamoglu Says He May Back Alternative Candidate if Barred from Running
Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu told Bloomberg in his first interview with foreign media since his March arrest that he is prepared to endorse another candidate if he is prevented from running in the next presidential election.
"I am not naive. If I am formally barred, the democratic opposition must still come together," Ozel said. "If the path forward requires another candidate, that person must carry forward our collective vision for justice, prosperity, and peace."
Imamoglu also appealed to Western capitals, saying: "To leaders in Washington, Berlin, London, and elsewhere: if you want a stable Turkey that is part of the global democratic family, then you must not look away when democracy is dismantled before your eyes."
ECONOMY
Turkey's Central Bank Reserves Hit Record $174.4 Billion
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) announced that its total reserves reached a historic high of $174 billion 365 million in the week of August 8, marking an increase of $5 billion 377 million from the previous week.
Gross foreign exchange reserves rose by $2 billion 698 million, reaching $87 billion 607 million, up from $84 billion 909 million on August 1. Gold reserves also increased by $2 billion 679 million, rising from $84 billion 79 million to $86 billion 758 million.
Overall, total reserves jumped from $168 billion 988 million to $174 billion 365 million in one week.
Budget Deficit Reaches 1 Trillion 4.3 Billion Lira in First Seven Months
The Ministry of Treasury and Finance released budget data for July, showing a central government budget deficit of 23.9 billion lira for the month. From January to July, the deficit reached 1 trillion 4.3 billion lira, with expenditures at 7 trillion 699.8 billion lira and revenues at 6 trillion 695.5 billion lira.
Tax revenue collection rose 49.6% in the same period, reaching 5 trillion 721 billion 293 million lira. However, interest expenditures surged by 87 percent to 1 trillion 246 billion lira, meaning 22 lira out of every 100 lira in tax revenue was spent on interest.
The "unaccountable" item, listed as covert appropriation expenditure, was recorded at 6 billion 808 million lira in the first seven months of the year.
Amid widespread forest fires in June and July, aircraft rental costs reached 3 billion 131 million lira. Total aircraft rental expenses for January–July climbed to 4 billion 288 million lira, nearly double last year's 2 billion 315 million lira over the same period.
Turkey's Population Grows by 159,910, Reaching 85.8 Million
The Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) has released its latest quarterly population data, showing that the country's population grew by 159,910 in the first six months of 2025.
Turkey's population, which was 85,664,944 at the end of 2024, reached 85,824,854 as of July 1.
According to the figures, men accounted for 50.01 percent of the total (42,923,584), while women made up 49.99 percent (42,901,270).
Over 14 Million in Turkey Depend on Social Assistance
More than 14 million people in Turkey depend on regular social assistance, and nearly 12 million of them live in extreme poverty, according to the Ministry of Family and Social Services.
The ministry's mid-year report covering January–June 2025 shows that the Turkey Family Support Program, launched in 2022 to help households rise above extreme poverty, reached 2,969,483 households. Using Turkish Statistical Institute estimates of four people per household, this equals 11,879,132 individuals.
HUMAN RIGHTS
US Report Softens Criticism of Turkey Despite Ongoing Human Rights Violations
Turkey committed widespread human rights abuses in 2024, including unlawful killings, torture, arbitrary detention, censorship, and transnational repression, according to the latest U.S. government report.
The Turkey 2024 Human Rights Report, published by the U.S. Department of State as part of its annual Country Reports on Human Rights Practices, said there was credible evidence of serious violations by Turkish authorities against journalists, political opponents, refugees, and members of the Gulen movement. The report noted that the government took only limited steps to hold perpetrators accountable.
However, Enes Esen of InstituDe pointed out key differences compared to last year's report. The 2024 version leaves out sensitive topics for Ankara, such as the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, as well as LGBTQ+ and Alevi issues—all of which appeared in the 2023 edition. In addition, while the 2023 report was 86 pages, this year's version is just 34 pages.
Esen argued that since Turkey's human rights record has not significantly improved, the shorter and softer report signals that the Trump administration has eased its criticism of Turkey, as it has also done with El Salvador, Israel, and Russia.
39 Jailed in Latest Operations Targeting Gulen Movement
Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya said on August 16 that 39 people were jailed pending trial after nationwide raids over the past 10 days. Authorities detained 49 suspects in operations across 29 provinces, including Ankara, Istanbul, and Izmir.
Yerlikaya announced on X that the suspects face accusations of spreading Gulen movement propaganda on social media, being involved in its current structure, contacting members through pay phones, and donating to charities linked to the movement.
FOREIGN POLICY
Turkey, Syria Sign Military Cooperation Deal
Turkey will supply weapons systems and logistical equipment to Syria under a military cooperation accord signed on August 13, a Turkish Defense Ministry source said. Ankara will also train the Syrian army in using the equipment if requested.
The agreement marks the first step toward a broader military partnership that the two countries have been negotiating for months. The memorandum of understanding was signed following meetings between their foreign and defense ministers, as well as intelligence chiefs.
"The memorandum aims to coordinate and plan military training and cooperation, provide consultancy, share information and experience, and ensure the procurement of military equipment, weapons systems, logistical materials, and related services," the Defense Ministry source told reporters on August 14.
Turkey Urges YPG to Honor Integration Deal with Damascus
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan on August 13 called on the Kurdish YPG militia, which leads the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), to stop "playing for time" and respect its agreement to integrate with the Syrian government.
The SDF, which controls much of northeast Syria, signed an agreement with Damascus in March to join the state apparatus. "The YPG/SDF must end its delaying tactics," Fidan said at a press conference in Ankara with Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani.
"We see developments in Syria that are difficult to tolerate," Fidan added. "We observe that YPG members from Turkey, Iraq, and Iran have still not left Syria."
Shibani also criticized the SDF for holding a conference that called for a review of the constitutional declaration issued earlier this year by Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa. He accused the SDF of exploiting unrest in Sweida and said the move violated its agreement to integrate into state institutions.
Turkey's Defense Ministry has also sharply criticized the SDF, accusing the group of violating its integration deal with the Syrian government and engaging in "provocative and divisive actions". Speaking at a weekly press briefing on August 14, Rear Adm. Zeki Akturk, spokesperson for the Turkish Defense Ministry, said the SDF "has failed to meet any conditions of the agreement and continues actions that threaten Syria's political unity and territorial integrity."
Erdogan, Pashinyan Discuss Peace and Normalization Process in Phone Call
President Erdogan spoke by phone with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on August 11, the Presidential Directorate of Communications announced.
The leaders discussed the peace agreement signed between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Erdogan said the commitment to peace is valuable for regional stability and stressed that the step must now be translated into concrete action.
He also noted that technical talks will continue to advance the normalization process between Turkey and Armenia.
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