ANALYSIS
"Israel’s Syria Strikes: Military Escalation Abroad, Political Collapse at Home" by Mustafa Enes Esen, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
If HTS loses its hold over territories due to local rebellions or external pressure, Turkey may intervene militarily to support its allies in Syria, including HTS. Such a move would raise the stakes and likely deepen tensions between Turkey and Israel. In any case, Syria will likely remain a persistent source of friction in Turkish-Israeli relations.
For now, the U.S. has asked Israel to halt its operations in Syria, and the clashes may subside soon. But Israel’s long-standing goal of preventing any hostile regime from consolidating power in Damascus—and the turmoil in Israeli politics—are unlikely to disappear.
"Turkey's Erdogan risks alienating voters as PKK peace advances" by Ece Toksabay and Daren Butler, Reuters
President Tayyip Erdogan risks losing support among nationalist Turkish voters in making peace with Kurdistan Workers Party militants, whose burning of weapons last week was dismissed by some as a stunt.
A backlash to Erdogan's call on Saturday for wide parliamentary support for the process underlines the challenge he faces in balancing nationalist and Kurdish demands, with a failure to do so potentially jeopardising the plan's success.
While his AKP party's far-right nationalist coalition partner MHP drove the peace process, smaller nationalist parties have condemned it. They recalled his years condemning the pro-Kurdish DEM party as being tied to the 40-year PKK insurgency that the PKK now says is over. While those parties could not derail the peace process alone, Erdogan, a shrewed political operator, is likely to closely monitor public reaction as the commission starts its work.
"Turkey doesn't have many options against Israel in Syria" by Ragip Soylu, Middle East Eye
Even if Turkey wanted to rely on hard power, it faces significant limitations. “For the Turkish army to ensure the security of Syrian airspace over Damascus, it would need air defence systems and aerial assets capable of the task,” said Yusuf Akbaba, a Turkish defence industry expert, in a now-deleted X post on Wednesday. “With our current inventory, which is insufficient even for Turkey’s own protection, we cannot defend another country.” He added that countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar have much better inventories than Turkey in this regard.
Turkey’s ageing F-16 fighter jet fleet still requires modernisation through pending deals, such as Ankara’s multibillion-dollar agreement with Washington and ongoing discussions over Eurofighter jets. Although Ankara possesses nationally produced Hisar short- and medium-range air defence systems, their numbers are limited.
The prevailing view in Ankara is that diplomacy remains the best way to resolve the crisis with Israel, especially given that the Trump administration, Saudi Arabia and much of the Arab League support the new Syrian government.
"Tesla sold precisely zero cars in Turkey in January—now it’s Elon Musk’s hottest market. Here’s why" by Christiaan Hetzner, Fortune
Turkey came within striking distance of becoming Tesla’s third-largest global market for the month of June, behind only the United States and China. A surge in demand for a new model tailored to meet the country’s tax regime has driven demand, but analysts doubt this kind of growth is sustainable given GDP per capita is a third that of the United Kingdom.
Together with its price below 1.45 million lira ($36,200), it qualifies for Turkey’s lower Special Consumption Tax (SCT), which is levied on top of the value-added tax for certain goods, including luxury items, tobacco, alcohol, fuel, and motor vehicles. By comparison, the new single-motor version, which costs 1.4 million lira, only comes with a 10% SCT surcharge that adds just 141,000 lira.
Turkey could be serving as a stopover before some of the vehicles are shipped to Russia, where nearly 1.3 million new cars are expected to be sold across the vast territory.
“Turkey doesn’t have issues with Russia, they still have diplomatic relations, there is still trade and there are flights,” JATO Dynamics automotive analyst Felipe Munoz explained in an interview. “This is a truth that no one wants to talk about, but is happening,” Munoz added.
POLITICS
CHP Files Criminal Complaint Over Alleged LGS Exam Leak and Fraud
Turkey’s main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), filed a criminal complaint on July 18 over alleged misconduct in the 2025 High School Placement Exam (LGS). The move follows growing claims that some exam questions were leaked before the test ended, raising concerns of widespread fraud—especially in schools with unusually high success rates.
CHP deputies Suat Ozcagdas, Gizem Ozcan, Muhip Kanko, and Suleyman Bulbul held a press conference outside the Ankara Courthouse before officially submitting the complaint. They accused the Ministry of Education of failing to protect the exam’s integrity and attempting to cover up the leak.
In 2025, a record-breaking 719 students achieved perfect scores of 500 out of 500—more than double the 352 top scores from the previous year. Many of these perfect scores reportedly came from imam hatip middle schools.
Initially, the Ministry of Education denied any breach. However, two days later, Education Minister Yusuf Tekin confirmed in a televised interview that an investigation had begun into the leak of PDF images from a section of the exam while it was still in progress. Tekin revealed that 29 people, including at least one school administrator, were under investigation.
The ministry also dismissed Ozgur Turk, the longtime director general of information technology, replacing him with Prof. Dr. Ersin Karaman.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, addressing the controversy, said students were being unfairly targeted. “They have been telling lies for days about the number of students who passed the exam,” he stated. “Since I am also an Imam Hatip graduate, the debate has evolved into hostility towards Imam Hatip schools.”
More Detention Warrants Issued in Istanbul Municipality Corruption Probe
On July 18, Turkish authorities issued detention warrants for 18 additional individuals as part of an ongoing corruption investigation targeting the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IBB). Police took 14 suspects into custody during early morning raids, while efforts continue to locate and detain the remaining four.
Imamoglu Convicted of Insulting Prosecutor, Acquitted on Terror-Related Charge
Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, who is currently jailed on corruption charges, was convicted on July 16 of insulting and threatening Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor Akin Gurlek. Gurlek is overseeing several investigations into Imamoglu’s party, CHP.
The ruling was delivered during the third hearing of Imamoglu’s trial, held at the Marmara Prison Complex courthouse in Silivri. The court handed down a 2-month, 15-day sentence for “threat” and 1 year, 5 months for “insulting a public official.” The court reached its decision by a majority vote, with one judge dissenting and calling for Imamoglu’s acquittal on all charges.
Imamoglu was, however, acquitted of a separate charge accusing him of targeting individuals involved in counterterrorism efforts.
Esenyurt Mayor Released in Terror Case, Remains Jailed Over Corruption Charges
A Turkish court on July 14 ordered the release of Ahmet Ozer, the opposition mayor of Istanbul’s Esenyurt district, in a terrorism-related case. Ozer appeared in person before the Istanbul 14th High Criminal Court, located in the Marmara Prison Complex in Silivri. Several prominent opposition figures attended the hearing in support.
The court ruled to release Ozer following his second hearing. However, he will remain in custody due to a separate investigation which led to Ozer's arrest on charges of bid rigging.
Mayor of Şile Arrested in Corruption Probe Targeting Municipality
A Turkish court arrested the mayor of Şile, a seaside district on the northern edge of Istanbul, along with four other municipal officials, early on July 14.
The arrests come after a police raid last week targeting the Şile Municipality, during which six individuals were taken into custody, including Mayor Ozgur Kabadayi, a member of the opposition party CHP. The investigation centers on allegations of forming a criminal organization, extortion, bribery, and rigging public tenders.
DEM Party Meets with Justice Minister, Opposition Leaders, and Bahceli in Push for Political Dialogue
Lawmakers from the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) held a series of high-level meetings this week as part of a renewed push for political dialogue and resolution.
On July 16, DEM Party deputies Pervin Buldan and Mithat Sancar, along with lawyer Faik Ozgur Erol, met with Justice Minister Yilmaz Tunc at the Justice Ministry.
Responding to questions from the press, Sancar said the parliamentary committee on the process “will begin its work very soon,” and added that they expect this to happen “within this week.” When asked whether the release of former HDP Co-Chair Selahattin Demirtas was discussed, Buldan stated, “Every issue has been discussed. We won’t go into detail, but all the issues you might ask about have been discussed.”
Later the same day, the delegation visited Ahmet Davutoglu, leader of the opposition Future Party. Davutoglu emphasized the need for national consensus to achieve a “terrorism-free Turkey” and voiced his support for ongoing peace efforts.
The delegation then held a rare and notable meeting with Devlet Bahçeli, leader of the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), at his office in parliament. The 45-minute meeting marked a rare public interaction between the DEM Party and the MHP. Buldan described the conversation as “very positive and productive,” noting that they had briefed Bahçeli on recent developments in the process.
The political outreach continued on July 17, when the DEM Party delegation visited CHP Chairman Ozgur Ozel at party headquarters. After the meeting, Buldan said, “Today, we held a meeting with CHP Chairman Ozgur Ozel and his delegation. We made important assessments during our meeting, which lasted over an hour.”
ECONOMY
Turkey Posts $24.3 Billion Budget Deficit in First Half of 2025
Turkey’s central government recorded a budget deficit of 980.5 billion lira ($24.3 billion) in the first six months of 2025. From January through June, government revenue increased 46 per cent year-over-year to reach 5.6 trillion lira ($139 billion). However, spending rose nearly as fast—up 44 per cent—to 6.58 trillion lira ($163 billion).
A key pressure point has been interest payments on government debt, which totaled over 1.1 trillion lira ($27.3 billion) in the first half of the year. Taxes continue to be the primary source of state income. Tax revenues climbed nearly 49 percent from the previous year, totaling 4.77 trillion lira ($118 billion) during the same period.
Majority of Turks Can’t Afford a One-Week Holiday, Eurostat Data Shows
More than half of Turkey’s adult population was unable to afford the cost of a one-week vacation in 2024, according to newly released data from Eurostat, placing the country among the worst in Europe for holiday affordability.
The data show that 57.4 percent of Turks aged 16 and older could not afford a one-week annual holiday away from home. This figure is more than double the EU average, which stood at 27 percent—down slightly from 28.5 percent in 2023.
In Turkey, the financial burden was even greater for larger families. In households with three children, 71.9 percent said they could not afford a vacation. The rate was even higher among single mothers with one child, reaching 73.5 percent.
Among EU countries, the lowest rates of holiday deprivation were recorded in Luxembourg (8.9 percent), Sweden (11.6 percent), and the Netherlands (13 percent).
Turkey Expands President’s Authority Over Vehicle SCT Rates
Turkey has amended the Special Consumption Tax (SCT) Law, granting the President broader authority to adjust SCT rates for vehicles based on their technical specifications, such as engine displacement, range, and battery capacity.
Under the new framework, SCT rates will range between 80% and 220%, depending on factors like engine size and electric motor power.
Turkey Lifts Corn Import Tariff Ahead of Harvest, Sparking Farmer Outrage
Turkey has scrapped a 130 percent import tariff on 500,000 tons of corn just weeks before the domestic harvest, drawing sharp criticism from farmers who say the move puts their livelihoods at further risk.
The decision, published in the Official Gazette on July 14 and valid until July 31, is aimed at stabilizing food prices and supporting the livestock industry. However, agricultural producers warn it could drive down domestic corn prices as they prepare to begin harvesting in early August.
“The zero-duty import quota for 500,000 tons of corn right before harvest has caused significant concern among corn farmers,” said Mutlu Dogru, head of the Adana Farmers’ Union. “We are already dealing with rising input costs and water shortages. Who exactly is benefiting from this policy?”
Opposition lawmaker Ayhan Barut of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) called the move a “painful blow” to farmers in the fertile Cukurova region, one of Turkey’s major agricultural zones.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Turkey Tops ECtHR Docket with Over One-Third of Pending Cases
According to the latest statistics released by the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR), out of 60,200 pending cases before the court, 21,050—or 35 percent—have been filed against Turkey. In stark contrast, the total number of applications from 37 other developed countries stands at just 8,150, making up only 13.5 percent of the caseload.
Observers note that once the Turkish Constitutional Court forwards additional delayed applications to Strasbourg, the ECtHR may effectively become a court dealing almost exclusively with Turkey-related cases.
Turkey’s Post-Coup Crackdown: Over 390,000 Detained, 127,000 Dismissed, $14 Billion in Assets Seized
Nearly a decade after the failed 2016 coup attempt, Turkish authorities continue their sweeping crackdown on the Gulen movement, with detentions, arrests, mass purges, and large-scale asset seizures still ongoing, according to data released by the state-run Anadolu Agency.
Over the past nine years, police and gendarmerie teams have detained a total of 390,354 people on charges related to alleged links to the Gulen movement. Of those, 113,837 individuals have been arrested.
Among the detainees are 11,043 high-ranking officers, 43,818 police officers, 216 generals, 15,182 military officers, 38,888 other personnel from the Turkish Armed Forces, 3,774 judges, 1,314 prosecutors, 34 governors, 154 deputy governors, 35 civil inspectors, 532 district governors, and 258,782 individuals from various other professions. An additional 27,625 people were detained in gendarmerie-led operations.
The Justice Ministry reports that more than 126,000 individuals have been convicted, while 11,085 people remain imprisoned, either serving sentences or awaiting appeal outcomes. Legal proceedings are ongoing for over 24,000 others, and approximately 58,000 people are still under active investigation.
The crackdown also triggered sweeping purges across the public sector. More than 127,000 people were dismissed from public service, including civil servants, military personnel, judges, and educators.
Additionally, the government shut down 934 schools, 109 dormitories, 104 foundations, 1,125 associations, 15 universities, and 19 labor unions over suspected ties to the group.
Turkey Marks Coup Anniversary with New Crackdown on Gulen Movement, Over 400 Targeted
On the ninth anniversary of the failed 2016 coup attempt, the Turkish government has launched a sweeping new crackdown on the Gulen movement, issuing detention warrants for more than 400 individuals and seizing two major Istanbul-based retail chains.
The operations, coordinated by Turkish intelligence and police, were carried out nationwide on July 15—the same day the government held ceremonies honoring victims of the attempted coup.
Authorities seized Hakmar, a popular discount supermarket chain with approximately 800 stores across Turkey, and Tatbak, a pastry brand with around 80 outlets in Istanbul. Trustees were appointed to both companies on July 15, and the firms began making payments to approximately 2,000 suppliers on July 17.
Istanbul prosecutors issued detention warrants for 26 individuals, including Zeki Doruk, the owner of both companies. Twenty-two of them, including Doruk, were arrested by the court. Officials allege that Doruk and others were involved in transferring donations and religious offerings to families of jailed or exiled Gulen movement members.
In a separate operation based in Izmir, prosecutors ordered the detention of 371 people across 60 provinces on charges of financing the Gulen network. At least 231 suspects have been taken into custody. Authorities claim the suspects funneled money—collected under the guise of domestic and international food deliveries—to imprisoned movement affiliates and those living in exile.
In another investigation linked to past academic misconduct, prosecutors in Ankara issued detention warrants for 14 people accused of obtaining leaked questions for the now-defunct police academy entrance exams in 2010 and 2011.
As part of an investigation led by the Ankara Chief Public Prosecutor's Office targeting the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, authorities issued detention warrants for eight individuals across four provinces. The probe, centered in Ankara, involves three current employees and five others who were previously dismissed from the ministry.
Turkish Court Rejects Release of Demirtas and Yuksekdag Despite ECtHR’s Ruling
A Turkish court has once again denied the release of jailed Kurdish politician Selahattin Demirtas, just days after the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) ruled that Turkey had violated his rights due to prolonged pretrial detention.
The court based its decision on a letter from the Justice Ministry’s Human Rights Department, which claimed the ECtHR ruling was not yet final. The same decision also applied to several other defendants in the high-profile Kobani trial, including former HDP co-chair Figen Yuksekdag.
Journalist Placed Under House Arrest Over 'White Toros' Comment
Journalist Oguz Bakir has been placed under house arrest following a social media comment he made in response to a statement by CHP Chairman Ozgur Ozel.
Ozel had shared that a prosecutor placed a model of a white Toros (Beyaz Toros) car on his desk — a vehicle widely associated in Turkey with past instances of state intimidation and forced disappearances during the 1990s.
In response to Ozel’s remarks, Bakir posted a comment asking, “Who is the prosecutor with the white Toros?” According to the Media and Law Studies Association (MLSA), Bakir was detained on July 18 for the comment and later placed under house arrest.
FOREIGN POLICY
Turkey Condemns Israeli Strikes on Damascus, Offers Support to Syria
Turkey’s Foreign Ministry on July 16 condemned Israel’s airstrikes targeting Syria’s army and defense ministry headquarters in Damascus, calling them an “act of sabotage” that undermines stability in the war-torn country.
The strikes followed Israeli warnings of further military action unless Syrian forces withdrew from southern Syria, where clashes have erupted between security forces and the Druze minority.
U.S. Special Envoy for Syria and Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack described the situation in Damascus as “worrisome” and they were in direct talks with all parties to end the conflict.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Ankara had conveyed its concerns to Israeli authorities through intelligence channels. Speaking to state media in New York, Fidan noted he was in close contact with Barrack and had also spoken with his Syrian, Jordanian, and Saudi counterparts about the situation.
On July 17, the Turkish Defense Ministry also condemned the Israeli airstrikes as a “clear provocation” that threatens regional peace and stability. Rear Admiral Zeki Aktürk, the ministry’s spokesperson, said Turkey is closely monitoring the escalation in Syria and is ready to assist.
“We are ready to provide all necessary support to strengthen Syria’s defense capacity and assist its fight against terrorism if there is a request,” Aktürk stated during a weekly press briefing in Ankara.
The Turkish Parliament also passed a motion on July 17 denouncing the Israeli attacks as a breach of international law and Syria’s territorial integrity. The pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) abstained from the vote.
President Erdogan, in a televised speech following the weekly cabinet meeting, accused Israel of using the Druze minority as a pretext for expansion into Syria. “If the monster is not stopped immediately, it will not hesitate to throw first our region, then the world, into flames,” Erdoğan said.
Turkey has backed a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Syria’s interim government and Israel, which resulted in the redeployment of Syrian Interior Ministry forces in Sweida on July 19. In a televised address, Syrian interim leader al-Sharaa thanked the United States, Turkey, and Arab states for their role in securing the truce and pledged to protect Syria’s religious and ethnic minorities.
EU Eases Schengen Visa Rules for Turkish Citizens with Clean Travel Record
The European Union has adopted new Schengen visa procedures for Turkish nationals with a history of lawful travel, granting them easier access to longer-term multiple-entry visas.
Announced by the European Commission on July 15, the updated rules apply to Turkish citizens residing in Turkey who have previously obtained and properly used short-term Schengen visas. Under the new system, eligible applicants can now receive a six-month multiple-entry visa with their second application, which can be extended to one, three, and eventually five years based on their travel history.
The move aims to reward “bona fide” travelers who pose minimal migratory or security risks and to help ease the workload of EU consulates facing increased demand.
Turkish Trade Minister Omer Bolat welcomed the development, describing it as “a facilitation that our citizens have been awaiting for a long time.”
EU Ambassador to Turkey Thomas Hans Ossowski also expressed support but noted that the new rules do not fully resolve broader visa-related challenges. He emphasized that the real solution lies in full visa liberalization. “We want the visa dialogue to be restarted. We want people from Turkey to come and travel to the EU countries. The only solution to this is the visa liberalization dialogue,” Ossowski said.
Syria and Azerbaijan Sign Energy Deal to Tackle Syrian Power Crisis
The government of the Syrian Arab Republic and Azerbaijan’s State Oil Company (SOCAR) have signed a memorandum of understanding in Baku to boost energy cooperation. The agreement was inked during a working visit by Syrian Transitional President Ahmed al-Sharaa, according to a statement published on the Azerbaijani presidential website.
Azerbaijani Economy Minister and SOCAR Supervisory Board Chairman Mikayil Jabbarov and Syrian Energy Minister Mohammed al-Bashir signed the document. While specific terms were not disclosed, the agreement reportedly includes plans to export Azerbaijani natural gas to Syria via Turkey, aiming to alleviate Syria’s prolonged energy crisis.
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