"Our Experts' Views on Results of PKK's Self-Dissolution," The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
Omer Guler
The PKK's loss of armed capability would significantly diminish the organization's influence in the region. With the group no longer active, people may begin to think more freely, potentially leading to shifts in political preferences.
However, disarmament alone does not resolve the issue. The group's organizational structure, communication channels, and local control networks must also be dismantled. The real concern lies in whether this power might be reactivated after the disarmament.
Enes Esen
The dissolution of the PKK will directly impact Turkey's security policies regarding Syria and Iraq. If the PKK ceases to pose an armed threat, Turkey's continued military presence in those countries may come under scrutiny. Turkish military bases and checkpoints were established in both Iraq and Syria as part of counter-terrorism efforts. Should this threat be neutralized, especially in Iraq, the local government may push for the closure of these military installations. A similar response from Syria is unlikely in the short term.
On the other hand, the PKK's dissolution does not guarantee that all its elements will disarm. The organization may fragment, and smaller factions could continue armed operations. There is a risk that certain elements may refuse to lay down arms, continue using Northern Iraq as a base, and launch attacks on Turkey and Iran. It is also possible that these remnants become further radicalized and adopt a more aggressive posture—this risk must be taken seriously.
Ahmet Kalafat
The withdrawal of armed elements could pave the way for divisions within the DEM Party, the emergence of new political actors, and the development of a more dynamic and diverse political landscape. This would be the true gain: a pluralistic political environment no longer overshadowed by the threat of violence.
As the PKK's influence fades, the DEM Party will have more space to define its own path. However, what truly matters is the consistent application of democratic principles—not only in opposition to the state but also within the party's own social base.
"Step by Step Towards a Turkey–Syria Free Trade Agreement" by Mehmet Demirbas, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
With recent statements indicating that sanctions on Syria may be lifted, the prospect of reinstating the Turkey–Syria Free Trade Agreement has gained momentum. A critical condition in this process is the establishment of a transition period, allowing Syria's industrial infrastructure—largely devastated by years of war—to recover. During this period, the Damascus administration is expected to request a gradual implementation of the agreement.
For a Syrian economy ravaged by conflict and a Turkish economy facing ongoing instability, the lifting of international financial sanctions and the potential revival of the Turkey-Syria Free Trade Agreement represent a significant window of opportunity. This development could pave the way for regional prosperity, development, and stability through mutual economic interdependence, grounded in the principle that "trade makes peace.
"Turkey's Middle-Power Dilemma" by Mustafa Kutlay, Foreign Affairs
Two decades ago, the path to foreign policy success for these countries lay in becoming a good citizen of the liberal international order. Today, "strategic autonomy" is the name of the game. Yet if Turkey and countries in similar positions do not appreciate the tradeoffs of this approach, they risk straining their partnerships, overstretching their diplomatic resources, and diluting their economic priorities. The idea that transactionalism is inherently good for middle powers is a delusion.
Multipolarity may offer economic opportunity, but it also brings heightened risk. Strengthening partnerships in one region could also come at the expense of ties in another. For Turkey to successfully walk this tightrope, like other middle powers, it will need to operate with self-restraint and a realistic understanding of its limits.
"How strengthened EU-Turkey defence ties are boosting Ankara's influence in regional security" by Jonathan Fenton-Harvey, The New Arab
"Turkey will undoubtedly play a role in Europe's future security architecture - but that role will likely involve Europeans recognising Turkey's desire for a zone of influence in its own periphery, from the Caucasus to Syria," Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, Visiting Fellow at Brookings, told The New Arab.
Conflicting approaches towards Ankara - ranging from Germany and France's past grievances, to Rome and the UK's pragmatic approaches - may still undermine broader cohesion between Europe and Turkey.
Challenges remain, especially regarding the diverging opinions of European states towards Turkey, notably the differences between the EU itself and some of its member states. Still, Europe will certainly feel more pressure to align with Ankara, especially while the war in Ukraine persists and President Trump remains unpredictable
And this growing trajectory of acceptance of Turkey among EU policymakers will no doubt be a boost to Ankara, from Italy's alignment in Libya to Europe's recognition of Turkey's key role in Syria, which could strengthen Ankara's influence further in these areas.
"Here is What Turkey's Five-stage Peace Plan with PKK Looks Like", Ragip Soylu, Middle East Eye
There is no fixed timeline for the disarmament process, but Turkish officials believe it could take three to four months or even longer. The process concerns an estimated 8,000 to 10,000 armed PKK members across Turkey, Iraq, Syria, and Iran. No third country or international organisation will be involved in the disarmament points or process.
Once Turkey verifies that the PKK's disarmament is complete, Parliament and political parties are expected to play a significant role in discussing and enacting laws to advance democratisation.
DEM Party Delegation Meets with Ocalan After PKK Dissolution
Following the PKK's decision to dissolve, a DEM Party delegation visited imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan on Imrali Island on May 18. The delegation included DEM Party Van Deputy Pervin Buldan and lawyer Ozgur Erol.
In a written statement after the meeting, the DEM Party said: "There is a need for a new agreement on the law of brotherhood. The Turkish-Kurdish relationship is unique—what has been damaged is the bond of brotherhood. Brothers may fight, but one cannot exist without the other. We are clearing the traps and mines that damage this relationship and repairing the broken roads and bridges."
PKK Announces Dissolution, Ends Decades-Long Armed Struggle Against Turkish State
The outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) announced on May 12 that it is dissolving its organizational structure and ending its armed struggle against the Turkish state, marking a significant shift after four decades of conflict.
"The 12th PKK Congress has decided to dissolve the PKK's organizational structure and end its method of armed struggle," the group said in a statement.
The ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) welcomed the announcement as an "important step" but emphasized that the government would closely monitor the process. Party spokesperson Omer Celik said the decision could usher in a new era—if it is fully implemented.
MHP leader Devlet Bahceli said, "Today, politics and democracy have won." He added how to disarm the group and implement political and legal reforms should be discussed separately.
The US Embassy described the PKK's disarmament decision as a turning point. The Embassy noted that US Secretary of State Rubio reaffirmed America's support to Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan.
Meanwhile, European Commission Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Anouar El Anouni told reporters that the EU invited "all parties to seize this opportunity" to advance peace.
Good Party Chairman Musavat Dervisoglu reacted strongly to the PKK's decision to dissolve itself. Dervisoglu claimed the terrorist group had already been brought to the brink of termination and accused the government and its allies of betrayal.
Tuncer Bakirhan, co-chair of the DEM Party, called on the Turkish government to take concrete and confidence-building steps ahead of the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha. "Taking some humane, concrete, and confidence-building steps without postponing them until after the holiday is the right way for Turkey to move forward," Bakirhan told reporters on May 13.
Turkish Justice Minister Yilmaz Tunc firmly rejected any possibility of releasing PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan from prison. "There is no such situation nor any discussion on the matter," Tunc told reporters on May 14 when asked about the potential application of the "right to hope" for Ocalan.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on May 14 that Turkey's intelligence service will closely monitor the PKK's dissolution process to ensure all promises are kept.
Despite the PKK's declaration to end its armed struggle, Turkey's military operations will continue in areas where the group remains active, a defense ministry spokesperson said during a May 15 press briefing. The spokesperson emphasized that operations would not stop until all threats were fully eliminated.
MHP leader Devlet Bahceli called for national unity and patience following the PKK's announcement of its dissolution. In a statement on May 18, Bahceli proposed forming a commission in the Parliament to oversee the transition and ensure transparency.
Imamoglu Responds from Prison: "No Scandals, No Evidence—Your Show Didn't Happen"
CHP's presidential candidate and Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, currently jailed in Silivri for two months, issued a new statement amid ongoing investigations against him. Posting from the Presidential Candidate Office account—after his personal social media was blocked—Imamoglu directly addressed President Erdogan.
"Two months have passed. No shoeboxes full of cash, no safes overflowing with dollars, no 'gifts' worth 300,000 euros, no offshore accounts with millions, no leaked phone calls, no scandalous emails like in past cases. Nothing has come out!" he wrote.
Imamoglu added, "Your biggest dream was to create a video and show it in the group meeting. It didn't happen!"
Turkey's Central Bank Reserves Rise by $5.8 Billion After 7-Week Decline
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) boosted its total reserves to $144.3 billion in the week ending May 9, marking a $5.81 billion increase after seven weeks of decline.
Gold reserves rose from $80.96 billion to $83.12 billion, while foreign exchange reserves climbed from $57.58 billion to $61.22 billion.
Despite the gain, reserves remain about $28.9 billion below the record high of $173.2 billion set on February 14, 2025.
EBRD: Political Turmoil in Turkey Hits Economy and Investor Confidence
Recent political developments in Turkey have hindered efforts to curb inflation and have had a significant impact on the economy and foreign exchange reserves, according to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).
"This is costly in terms of economic performance, in terms of reserves ... and in terms of the reputational implications, undermining confidence of investors," said Beata Javorcik, EBRD's Chief Economist.
The EBRD noted that Turkey's central bank sold over $40 billion in foreign exchange in the weeks following the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu. As a result, net reserves—excluding currency swaps—plunged from over $60 billion to below $20 billion.
Erdogan Announces 75 bcm Gas Discovery, Former Official Calls It Reserve Update
Turkey has discovered a new natural gas reserve of 75 billion cubic metres (bcm) in the Black Sea, President Erdogan announced on May 17. Speaking at an event in Istanbul, Erdogan said the find would be enough to supply households in Turkey with natural gas for 3.5 years.
The gas reserve, valued at approximately $30 billion, was uncovered in the Goktepe-3 well at a depth of 3,500 metres, he added.
Former BOTAS Department Head Ali Arif Akturk stated that the gas reserve recently announced by President Erdogan is not a new discovery. According to Akturk, it is simply an update to an existing reserve that had already been announced previously.
Turkey's Fertility Rate Hits Record Low, Raising Alarms Over Population Decline
Turkey's fertility rate fell to a historic low of 1.48 children per woman in 2024, according to data released by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat). The rate remains well below the population replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. Turkey last met that threshold in 2016. In 2001, the fertility rate stood at 2.38 and has declined every year since.
Southeastern provinces reported the highest fertility rates, with Sanliurfa leading at 3.28, followed by Sirnak (2.72) and Mardin (2.39). In contrast, the lowest rates were recorded in Bartin and Eskisehir (1.12), Zonguldak and Ankara (1.15), and Izmir (1.17).
Turkey to Send Floating LNG Terminal to Egypt
Turkey will deploy one of its floating LNG terminals to Egypt for the first time under a new energy agreement, officials announced on May 13.
State energy company BOTAŞ signed a deal with Egypt's Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company (EGAS) to send a Floating Storage and Regasification Unit (FSRU) from its fleet to Egypt, the Energy and Natural Resources Ministry said. The signing ceremony took place in Ankara and was attended by Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar and his Egyptian counterpart Karim Badawi.
Minister Bayraktar described the deal as "a flexible and efficient model" that would strengthen natural gas supply security for both countries. "With this agreement, an FSRU from BOTAŞ's fleet will be deployed abroad on a temporary basis for the first time," he said.
Turkey's Prison Population Surges Past 400,000, Exceeding Capacity by Over 100,000
Turkey's prison population has surged by more than 4,000 in just one month, pushing the total number of inmates to over 400,000—well above the official capacity, according to data from the Ministry of Justice.
As of April, the country's 395 prisons hold 403,060 inmates, exceeding the official combined capacity of 299,924 by 103,136 people. The number of inmates rose by 18,844 between January and April 2025 despite the closure of 10 prison facilities during the same period.
The sharp increase is tied mainly to ongoing government crackdowns on the faith-based Gulen movement, individuals linked to the Kurdish political struggle, and recent arrests following protests against the jailing of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu.
Turkish Police Detain 101 More in Crackdown on Gulen Movement
Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya announced on May 16 that Turkish police have detained 101 additional individuals as part of the ongoing crackdown on the faith-based Gulen movement.
In a statement shared on X, Yerlikaya said the detentions took place during coordinated police operations in 27 provinces, including Istanbul, Izmir, Trabzon, and Bursa.
Journalist Furkan Karabay Arrested Over Reports on Opposition Mayors
Turkish journalist Furkan Karabay was arrested on May 15 on charges of insulting the president and targeting public officials involved in counterterrorism, according to his lawyer.
Karabay, known for his critical reporting on investigations into municipalities governed by the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) and the March arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, was taken into custody during an early morning raid at his home.
This is not Karabay's first arrest. In November, he was detained after reporting on the arrest of Esenyurt Mayor Özer and the government's decision to appoint a trustee to the municipality. He was released after 10 days.
Swedish Journalist Joakim Medin Released, Leaves Turkey
The Istanbul 13th High Criminal Court released Swedish journalist Joakim Medin following an objection filed by the Media and Law Studies Association (MLSA), the group announced.
According to the MLSA, Medin has left Turkey after completing the necessary procedures. Sweden's Prime Minister also confirmed that Medin is on his way home.
Medin faces charges of membership in a terrorist organization. His first court hearing is scheduled for September 25, 2025.
Russia and Ukraine Hold First Direct Talks in Over Three Years, Agree on Prisoner Swap
Russia and Ukraine held their first direct talks in over three years on May 16, agreeing to a major prisoner exchange and discussing the outlines of a possible ceasefire and a future meeting between Presidents Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin.
Russia's lead negotiator, Vladimir Medinsky, said both sides had agreed to present their "vision of a possible future ceasefire." Ukraine's top negotiator, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, confirmed the prisoner swap and said a potential ceasefire and presidential summit had been discussed.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, who hosted the talks, said the delegations had "agreed in principle to meet again" and would submit their ceasefire proposals in writing.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, who had initially proposed the meeting, did not attend and sent a lower-level delegation. Ukrainian President Zelensky criticized Moscow's approach, accusing Putin of sending "empty heads" to the negotiating table.
Zelensky sent a slimmed-down team to the Istanbul talks in response to Russia's decision. Neither Sybiga nor Zelensky's chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, were part of the Ukrainian negotiation team, which was led by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov.
US Secretary of State Rubio Meets Turkish, Ukrainian Officials Ahead of Russia-Ukraine Talks
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with senior Turkish and Ukrainian officials in Istanbul on May 16, just hours before the first direct Russia-Ukraine negotiations in over three years.
Although Rubio tempered expectations on May 15, saying, "We don't have high expectations," he flew in to support the diplomatic effort. After arriving in Istanbul, Rubio headed straight to Dolmabahce Palace for talks with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Ukrainian Deputy Head of the Presidential Office Andriy Sybiga.
Trilateral Turkey-US-Syria Meeting Held During NATO Gathering in Antalya
A high-level trilateral meeting between Turkey, the US, and Syria took place in Antalya on May 15 during the NATO Foreign Ministers' Informal Meeting, according to diplomatic sources.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Syrian Foreign Minister Esad Hasan Sheybani attended the two-hour session, accompanied by their delegations. Senator Lindsey Graham joined Rubio at the meeting.
The discussions focused on follow-ups to a prior conversation between US President Donald Trump and Syrian President Ahmed Shara in Riyadh, which Turkish President Erdogan joined online.
The US side underscored Syria's importance to regional security and expressed its desire to help rebuild the country. Syria highlighted its commitment to self-governance, fighting terrorism, and reintegration into the international community.
On the sidelines of the NATO meeting, Fidan also held bilateral talks with several foreign ministers, including Rubio and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.
Turkey Welcomes YPG-Damascus Deal, Urges Action on Promises
Speaking after the NATO Foreign Ministers' Informal Meeting in Antalya, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Turkey welcomed the agreement between the YPG and Damascus.
Fidan stressed that Ankara expects concrete steps, including dismantling the YPG's military structure and integrating its forces into Syria's new army. "When we speak with our counterparts, it's clear the YPG has not taken any action. We expect them to follow through on their commitments," he said.
Iran, European Officials Hold Nuclear Talks in Istanbul
Iranian and European diplomats met in Istanbul on May 16 to discuss Iran's nuclear program and explore ways to avoid further tensions.
Deputy foreign ministers from Iran, the UK, France, and Germany held talks at the Iranian Consulate General. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said the discussions focused on Iran-US negotiations and both sides were committed to diplomacy and would continue discussions in future meetings.
EU Deputy Secretary General for Political Affairs Olaf Skoog also joined the talks and met with Iran's Deputy Foreign Ministers Majid Takht-Ravanchi and Gharibabadi.
Erdogan Says U.S. Sanctions on Turkish Defense Sector Likely to Ease
President Tayyip Erdogan expressed optimism that U.S. sanctions on Turkey's defense sector under the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) would soon be lifted, citing President Donald Trump's "more open, more constructive" stance.
Speaking to journalists on his return flight from Albania, Erdogan commented on the recent U.S. approval of a potential missile sale to Turkey. "I can easily say there is an easing on CAATSA," he said.
The U.S. Department of Defense announced that the State Department approved the possible sale of missiles and related equipment worth $304 million to Turkey on April 13. The deal includes AIM-9X Sidewinder Block II and AIM-120C-8 Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles.
Turkey Ranks Second in Schengen Visa Applications in 2024, Rejection Rate Drops
The European Union released its 2024 Schengen visa statistics, showing that Turkey submitted 1,173,917 applications — the second-highest number after China's 1,779,255. India followed Turkey with 1,108,239 applications.
Of the Turkish applications, 993,875 were approved, including 645,583 multiple-entry visas. The rejection rate stood at 14.5%, a slight improvement from 2023's 16.1% rate.
In 2023, Turkey filed 1,055,885 applications, with 867,646 approvals, 612,841 of which were for multiple entries.
Drone Strikes in Sudan Expose Deepening Turkey-UAE Proxy Conflict
Recent drone attacks in Sudan have exposed a growing conflict between Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, who are backing rival sides in the ongoing civil war that began in April 2023, Middle East Eye (MEE) reported.
On May 3, drones operated by Turkish personnel assisting the Sudanese army targeted a military cargo plane at Nyala airport, reportedly carrying drones, ammunition, and radar systems.
In response, a wave of retaliatory strikes hit Port Sudan for three days. Diplomatic sources said the strikes were orchestrated by the UAE, not the RSF leadership, despite Abu Dhabi's public condemnation of the attacks.
Sources familiar with the situation told MEE that several members of the Turkish technical team supporting drone operations were injured. Sudan's ambassador to the UK, Babikir Elamin, confirmed Turkish support for the Sudanese army and accused the UAE of supplying the rival RSF with weaponry from countries including France, Serbia, Bulgaria, and China.
India Revokes Turkish Firm Celebi's Clearance, Boycott Threatens Trade and Tourism
India has revoked the security clearance of Celebi Airport Services India—a subsidiary of Turkey's Celebi—citing national security concerns, the civil aviation ministry announced on May 15. The clearance, initially granted in 2022, was canceled with immediate effect.
The move comes amid growing public backlash in India over Turkey's perceived support for Pakistan in recent India-Pakistan tensions. Deputy Civil Aviation Minister Murlidhar Mohol said the government had received nationwide requests to ban Celebi.
Celebi has filed a legal challenge on May 16, calling the decision arbitrary and based on "vague" concerns. In its petition to the Delhi High Court, the company said the abrupt revocation jeopardizes 3,791 jobs and investor confidence. Celebi said in its filing that it operates ground-handling services at airports in New Delhi, Kerala, Bengaluru, Hyderabad, and Goa.
The Delhi High Court is expected to review the case in the coming days.
Indian media reports also suggested that the ongoing boycott against Turkey could affect billions of dollars in imports and millions in tourism spending. News18 reported that 2,000 Turkey-bound bookings have already been canceled, and 30 of 50 Indian weddings planned for 2025 are at risk—each typically valued at around $3 million.
However, according to the BBC, Indians made up less than 1% of Turkey's foreign visitors in 2024, indicating that the overall impact on the country's tourism revenue will likely be limited.
India Briefly Blocks TRT World's X Account Amid Tensions with Pakistan
India temporarily blocked the official X account of Turkish state broadcaster TRT World on May 14, citing the spread of misinformation about the recent India-Pakistan conflict. The account was later unblocked the same day.
The move came amid growing backlash in India over Turkey's perceived support for Pakistan during the conflict. In addition to TRT World, Indian authorities blocked the X accounts of Chinese state news agency Xinhua and the Communist Party's English-language outlet, Global Times.
Syria Seizes 9 Million Captagon Pills Bound for Turkey
Syrian authorities announced on May 15 that they had seized around 9 million pills of the illegal stimulant captagon in Aleppo following a month-long operation.
According to the Syrian Interior Ministry, the operation was carried out in coordination with Turkish officials. The ministry stated that approximately 5 million of the pills had already been smuggled into Turkey, while the rest were intended for trafficking to other countries.
Turkey Evacuates 82 Citizens from Libya Amid Deadly Clashes in Tripoli
Turkey has evacuated 82 of its citizens from Libya following days of violent clashes between rival armed groups in the capital, Tripoli, the Turkish Foreign Ministry sources said on May 16.
"Eighty-two citizens who wanted to return to Turkey were assisted in their departure from Libya and allowed to return home," a ministry source said, citing the ongoing conflict and deteriorating security conditions in the country.
Deadly fighting broke out in Tripoli on May 12 between government loyalist forces and militias targeted for dismantling by Libyan authorities.
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