WEEKLY NEWS BULLETIN ON TURKEY 16 JUNE 2025

by instituDE, published on 16 June 2025

ANALYSIS

"What Could Happen After Israel Attacks Iran?" — Hasim Tekines, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy

Due to the historical rivalry between Turkey and Iran, the weakening of Iran could present certain opportunities for the country. However, the collapse of the Islamic Republic of Iran would also pose significant risks for Turkey.

First, if the regime collapses and the country descends into chaos, Turkey could face a new wave of refugees. Second, there is a strong possibility that Kurdish movements in Iran would gain strength. The emergence of an independent or autonomous Kurdish entity along the Iranian border could further deepen Turkey's national security concerns. Third, Iran may undergo a radical shift in its foreign policy following a regime change.

While the weakening of Iran may create short-term opportunities for Turkey, the prospect of regime change presents serious strategic risks for Ankara. Turkey should monitor this process closely and be prepared for various scenarios.

"Don't Trust Erdogan's 'Peace Process' With the Kurds" by Gonul Tol, Foreign Policy

Today, Erdogan stands at another crossroads. Years of conflict helped him build an autocratic regime, but the current constitution bars him from running again in 2028. His solution? A new constitution that could remove term limits. And to make it happen, he needs the pro-Kurdish votes in parliament. That's the real motive behind renewed talks with Ocalan.

Kurds and Turks face a defining moment. Erdogan's ultimate goal is to strip away even the most fundamental democratic right to choose by whom we are ruled. Kurds have long fought for a democratic Turkey. To stay true to that struggle, they must see Erdogan's renewed overture to Ocalan for what it really is—a calculated power grab.

POLITICS

Ozel Vows to Defy Any Trustee Ruling Against CHP Congress

CHP Chairman Ozgur Ozel responded to the lawsuit filed against the 38th CHP Congress, where he was elected party leader, saying he would firmly oppose any move to appoint a trustee.

Ozel stated that he would not recognize a possible ruling declaring the Congress invalid or appointing a trustee, which could be made on June 30.

"I don't believe there's even a 1% chance of such a decision," he said. "But even if it happens, I will neither abandon nor drop the flag that was handed to me," he said.

Kilicdaroglu Meets Imamoglu in Prison for Four-Hour Visit

Former CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu visited Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu at Marmara Prison on June 12, spending nearly four hours in a closed-door meeting.

The visit reportedly came at Imamoglu's request, conveyed twice through his lawyer, according to former CHP lawmaker Baris Yarkadas.

At the high-security facility in Istanbul's Silivri district, Kilicdaroglu also met with other opposition figures detained as part of an ongoing corruption investigation. He left the prison without making a public statement.

Ocalan Requests Talks with Barzani and Abdi as DEM Party Plans Imrali Visit

Turkey's pro-Kurdish People's Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) is preparing to visit Imrali Island to meet with Abdullah Ocalan, the jailed leader of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).

DEM Party spokesperson Aysegul Dogan announced the planned visit on June 11, stating that members of the party's leadership would participate, although she did not reveal a specific date.

According to Dogan, Ocalan has expressed interest in meeting key Kurdish figures from across the region, including Mesut Barzani and Mazloum Abdi, to discuss a broader peace vision involving Turkish Kurds and other regional actors.

Ruling Party Wins Gaziosmanpasa Deputy Mayor Vote as CHP Retains Avcilar and Buyukcekmece

Following the removal of opposition-led CHP mayors of Gaziosmanpasa, Avcilar, and Buyukcekmece, deputy mayoral elections were held in all three Istanbul districts on June 11.

In Gaziosmanpasa, the municipal council convened to elect a new deputy mayor after Mayor Hakan Bahcetepe was arrested in a corruption probe. After three rounds of voting, Eray Karadeniz from the ruling AK Party was elected with 21 votes, while CHP candidate Murat Topaloglu received 16.

In Buyukcekmece and Avcilar, both deputy mayoral seats were secured by the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP). Ahmet Sahin was elected in Buyukcekmece, while Yuksel Can won the vote in Avcilar.

Arrest Warrant Issued for Halk TV CEO in Corruption Probe

A Turkish court issued an arrest warrant on June 10 for Cafer Mahiroglu, the CEO of opposition-aligned broadcaster Halk TV, as part of a widening investigation into alleged corruption in municipalities run by the opposition.

The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor's Office said Mahiroglu, currently abroad, is suspected of involvement in bid rigging. The warrant was issued by Istanbul's Criminal Court of Peace. The charges stem from evidence linked to businessman Aziz Ihsan Aktas, who is accused of leading a criminal organisation.

Mahiroglu responded on X the same day, calling the accusations "fabricated lies and slanders" involving a person he says he has never met.

Three Arrested in Investigation into Manisa Mayor's Death by Electrocution

Four people were taken into custody during the investigation into the death of Manisa Metropolitan Municipality Mayor Ferdi Zeyrek, who was electrocuted at his home. Three of them were arrested on charges of "causing death by negligence," while one was released.

According to a preliminary expert report, the pool motor had assembly errors. Investigators found that the people responsible for installing the pool pump motor and the electrical system were at fault. The report also noted that a required residual current relay was missing from the main building panel.

ECONOMY

Turkey and China Renew $5 Billion Currency Swap Deal

Turkey and China have renewed a longstanding currency swap agreement worth nearly $5 billion and agreed to establish a yuan clearing system in Turkey, aiming to reduce their reliance on the US dollar and strengthen financial ties, Bloomberg reported.

The Turkish central bank announced on June 13 that the updated deal allows both countries' central banks to exchange up to 189 billion Turkish lira or 35 billion Chinese yuan over three years.

Turkey's Defense Exports Hit $7.1 Billion in 2024

Turkey's defense industry has seen a dramatic rise in exports over the past decade, with revenues climbing from $1.64 billion in 2014 to $7.1 billion in 2024, according to BBC Monitoring.

Data compiled from open sources indicate that 39 countries have acquired Turkish-made UAVs to date. Between 2020 and 2024, the top three buyers of Turkish military hardware were the United Arab Emirates (18%), Pakistan (10%), and Qatar (9.9%).

The number of active defense projects in Turkey has also soared—from just 62 in 2002 to more than 1,100 today—backed by a budget that expanded from $5.5 billion to over $100 billion during the same period, according to the Presidency of Defense Industries.

Looking ahead, Ankara has set its 2028 defense export revenue goal at $11 billion, with the long-term aim of placing Turkey among the world's top 10 arms exporters.

Indonesia to Buy 48 Turkish Kaan Fighter Jets in $10 Billion Deal

Indonesia signed a landmark agreement with Turkey to purchase 48 Kaan fifth-generation fighter jets in a deal worth over $10 billion, Turkish President Erdogan announced on June 11.

The agreement, signed during the Indo Defence 2025 exhibition in Jakarta, marks the largest defense export deal in Turkey's history. It includes a 10-year delivery plan and the co-production of specific jet components in Indonesia. Erdogan thanked Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto for his support and partnership in the deal.

Turkish defence expert Yusuf Akbaba described the agreement as a major milestone for the Kaan program, emphasising that Indonesia's involvement could help attract additional buyers from Islamic countries and Asian markets. He noted that Qatar, Azerbaijan, Saudi Arabia, and others are also showing interest in the aircraft.

Otokar Delivers First Batch of Cobra II Armored Vehicles to Romania

Turkish defence company Otokar has delivered the first 14 Cobra II 4x4 tactical armoured vehicles to Romania by sea, marking the commencement of a major defence deal between the two countries.

This marks the start of a contract worth around $972 million, signed with Romania's state-owned procurement agency Romtehnica. Under the agreement, Otokar will supply a total of 1,059 Cobra II vehicles to the Romanian Ministry of National Defense. The first shipment arrived in the city of Medias on June 10.

HUMAN RIGHTS

Turkish Police Detain Four Journalists in Istanbul Raids

On the morning of June 13, Turkish police detained four journalists in coordinated raids on their homes in Istanbul.

Those taken into custody include Semra Pelek, a former member of the Media and Law Studies Association (MLSA); Ozan Cirik, a journalist with Sendika.org; Melisa Efe, a translator for the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung; and freelance journalist Dicle Basturk.

Authorities accused them of links to an illegal organization. The case file remains sealed under a confidentiality order; however, the arrests were made at the request of the Artvin Chief Public Prosecutor's Office.

Court Orders Far-Right Leader Ozdag to Remain in Prison

Umit Ozdag, leader of Turkey's far-right Victory Party (ZP), was ordered to remain in pretrial detention following his first court appearance on June 11 over charges of inciting hatred and hostility.

Ozdag, who has been held for 142 days, appeared at Istanbul's Silivri courthouse and denied all accusations. He claimed the case was politically motivated, aimed at silencing his criticism of peace talks with the outlawed PKK and rising migration.

Despite objections from his defense, the court extended his detention and adjourned the trial to June 17.

German Intelligence: Turkey Spies on Critics, Gulen Followers in Germany

Turkey's intelligence services are actively conducting operations in Germany, with a focus on surveilling followers of the Gulen movement and the Kurdish population, according to the 2024 annual report by Germany's domestic intelligence agency.

The Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) stated that Turkish intelligence is engaged in what it calls "transnational repression," targeting critics of the Turkish government beyond its borders. 

US Lawmakers Slam Turkey's Human Rights Record

US lawmakers strongly criticized Turkey's human rights practices during a June 10 congressional hearing. At the Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission, Rep. Chris Smith highlighted that "thousands remain unjustly imprisoned," noting over 15,500 people are in pretrial detention for alleged ties to the Gulen movement.

FOREIGN POLICY

Erdogan Warns of Regional War in Calls with Iran, Syria, and U.S.

On June 14, Erdogan spoke with Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian and strongly condemned Israel's attacks against Iran, calling them unlawful and unacceptable. He offered his condolences to the Iranian people for the loss of life.

Erdogan warned that Israel was trying "to drag the whole region into the fire," according to a statement from the Turkish presidency.

The call came as Israel and Iran exchanged deadly missile and drone strikes in their most intense confrontation yet, raising global concerns over a broader regional war.

The same day, Erdogan chaired a high-level security meeting at the Presidential Complex, where officials discussed the unfolding crisis and reviewed Turkey's preparedness for potential developments. Attendees included Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, Defense Minister Yasar Guler, and National Intelligence Chief Ibrahim Kalin.

Erdogan also spoke by phone with Syrian President Ahmed Sharaa, urging Syria to avoid becoming involved in the conflict and warning that the violence sparked by Israel poses a serious threat to regional stability.

Later, Erdogan held a separate call with U.S. President Donald Trump, stressing that Turkey is closely monitoring the Iran-Israel tensions and sees ongoing nuclear negotiations as the only viable path to resolving the crisis.

Number of Turks Gaining German Citizenship More than Doubled in 2024

The number of Turkish nationals granted German citizenship more than doubled in 2024, increasing by 110 per cent to 22,525 compared to the previous year. Turks became the second-largest group of new citizens after Syrians, who led with 83,150 naturalizations.

According to data from Germany's Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), Germany recorded a total of 291,955 naturalisations in 2024—the highest number since 2000—representing a 46 per cent increase from the previous year. The surge was mainly driven by changes to the citizenship law that took effect on June 27, 2024.

Two Turkish Nationals Deported After Gaza Aid Ship Seizure

Two Turkish nationals detained by Israeli forces on a Gaza-bound aid ship have been deported to Germany, Turkish officials said.

Şuayp Ordu and Yasemin Acar, a German citizen of Kurdish descent, were among 12 activists on board the Madleen, which was intercepted in international waters about 185 kilometres west of Gaza on June 9. Both Ordu and Acar were deported to Germany following their detention.