"Close Allies, Fragile Relations: Turkey and Azerbaijan’s Diplomatic Crisis" by Hasim Tekines, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
The recent crisis between Turkey and Azerbaijan highlights the importance of diplomacy. Trade, connectivity, and geopolitical alignment do not automatically translate into good relations. Diplomacy is needed to turn these shared interests into constructive relations between the two countries. Indeed, the ideological and geopolitical differences between Turkey and Azerbaijan are relatively minor compared with the strength of their military and economic ties, which have grown amid the wars in Ukraine and Iran. Yet Ankara and Baku have managed these differences poorly, allowing them to fuel a diplomatic crisis.
"Will Turkiye scale up its naval presence in the Arabian Sea?" by Leonardo Mazzucco, Amwaj.media
Turkey is no newcomer to the Arabian Sea. It has deployed warships to the region since 2009, amid rising Somali piracy. Ankara sustains this presence through independent deployments and contributions to multilateral maritime-security initiatives, including the US-led Combined Maritime Forces (CMF).
Ankara maintains a naval task group in the Arabian Sea of up to four warships and support vessels on four- to six-month deployments. The task group mainly escorts and protects Turkish vessels supporting offshore exploration off Somalia, but Turkish crews have also grown familiar with the theater, making Ankara a potentially credible contributor to regional maritime security.
Erdogan Adviser Says Turkey Likely to Hold Elections in March or April 2028
Turkey is likely to hold its next presidential and parliamentary elections in March or April 2028, Mehmet Ucum, a chief adviser to President Tayyip Erdogan, said on October 15. "It is now largely clear that the 2028 elections could be in March or April," Ucum told reporters.
He said Erdogan would seek a final term in the next presidential election.
Ucum proposed April 16, 2028, as a possible election date, citing the anniversary of the 2017 referendum in which voters approved Turkey's transition from a parliamentary system to an executive presidency. He said parliament would need to approve the decision to hold the elections.
Erdogan-Backed Religious Foundation Calls for Accountability Over Fund Scandal
The Aziz Mahmud Hudayi Foundation, affiliated with the Erenkoy religious community and a supporter of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's government, has called for accountability over corruption across the government, business and civil society in a declaration titled “We Reject Social Decay.”
The foundation attributed Turkey's investment fund crisis to inadequate oversight, tolerance of wrongdoing and favoritism. The declaration also called for investigations and accountability for bribery and corruption in public institutions, municipalities, property development, the business sector and civil society, regardless of the individuals or organizations involved.
Beyond financial misconduct, the foundation criticized conditions in schools, television programming and online gambling. It called for restrictions on broadcasts, a ban on gambling advertisements and expanded access to treatment for addiction.
Mahmut Asmali, chairman of the high advisory council of the Independent Industrialists and Businessmen's Association (MUSIAD), a business group that has supported Erdogan's government, endorsed the declaration. “I fully agree and would put my signature to it,” Asmali wrote on X while sharing the statement.
Turkish Intelligence Confirms PKK Withdrawal from Four Bases in Northern Iraq
Turkish intelligence has confirmed that Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) militants withdrew from four bases in northern Iraq on October 8, following the Kurdish group's announcement last week.
“The PKK evacuated the Hebat, Yajk, Sabri and Sason hideouts in Baze, in the Metina region of northern Iraq, on October 8,” security sources said in a statement.
“Following the cessation of PKK activities in all areas, social reconciliation will be achieved with organization members who will return to Turkey in the later stages of the process, benefiting from the law,” it said.
Mugla Mayor Ahmet Aras Resigns From CHP
Mugla Metropolitan Municipality Mayor Ahmet Aras has announced his resignation from the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), saying political debates focused on him personally have begun to overshadow his work for the city. Aras said he would continue serving as mayor as an independent.
Speculation has emerged that Aras could join the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) in the coming days, although no official confirmation has been announced.
IMF Raises Turkey's Inflation Forecast, Cuts 2026 Growth Outlook
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecast for Turkey's average inflation in 2026 to 31.2 percent from 28.6 percent in April, while lowering its economic growth projection.
The fund expects average consumer price inflation to reach 26.5 percent in 2027, up from its previous forecast of 21.4 percent. Its year-end inflation projections stand at 29.9 percent for 2026 and 23.7 percent for 2027.
The IMF also lowered its 2026 growth forecast for Turkey to 2.7 percent from 2.9 percent in July. It kept its 2027 growth projection unchanged at 3.6 percent.
Karahan: Turkey Allows Faster Lira Depreciation to Avoid Sharper Fall Later
Turkey is letting the lira depreciate faster to avoid a sharper decline in the longer term, Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan told investors in Bangkok, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the discussions. Karahan attended meetings in Bangkok on the sidelines of the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
The governor said the impact of currency depreciation on inflation had weakened because economic activity had also slowed, explaining the timing of the adjustment, according to the sources cited by Bloomberg.
Karahan also noted that his term ends in February 2028. He said he wanted to avoid leaving his successor in a position where a sharp devaluation would appear necessary and erase the progress achieved so far, the sources said.
MSCI Freezes Changes to Turkish Stock Indexes, Warns of Possible Downgrade by June 2027
Global index provider MSCI has frozen certain changes to its Turkish stock indexes, warning that Turkey could lose its emerging-market status if it fails to address market-integrity concerns by June 2027.
The restrictions prevent certain Turkish stocks from entering MSCI indexes, moving into higher company-size categories or increasing their index weights through specified index adjustments. They took effect immediately and will remain in place until further notice.
MSCI cited serious concerns raised by institutional investors about potentially coordinated trading involving fund holdings closely affiliated with certain smaller listed companies. MSCI said it expects tangible, credible progress, including more detailed, timely disclosures of beneficial ownership, stronger market surveillance, and enforcement against coordinated trading.
MSCI said it would continue to monitor the Turkish equity market closely, focusing on how effective regulatory changes and enforcement measures are. If Turkey fails to demonstrate sufficient progress by June 2027, the provider will consider further action, including consultations on downgrading the MSCI Turkey Indexes from Emerging Market to Frontier Market or Standalone Market status.
After MSCI’s announcement, Turkey's main stock index fell more than 3% on October 16.
Turkish Ruling Coalition Again Blocks Fund Scandal Inquiry
Lawmakers from Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and its ally, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), again blocked a parliamentary inquiry into an investment fund scandal on October 13, rejecting motions from four opposition groups seeking to investigate alleged political connections and regulatory failures behind the crisis.
Separately, Turkish Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek authorized prosecutors on October 14 to investigate Ibrahim Omer Gonul, the former head of Turkey's Capital Markets Board (SPK).
Simsek's approval came two weeks after prosecutors requested permission to investigate Gonul, who led the capital markets regulator for four years before his term ended in April.
Turkey to Receive Share of Russian Diesel Supplies Under US Deal, Minister Says
Turkey will receive some of the diesel Russia supplies to global markets under an agreement with US President Donald Trump, Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said on October 18, adding that the US-Russia diesel supply deal is important for Turkey's energy security.
He also said Turkey plans to bring a second floating gas production platform into operation in the first quarter of 2028. The platform will increase the country's daily natural gas production in the Black Sea to 45 million cubic meters, he added.
Bayraktar said hydrocarbon exploration operations planned off Pakistan's coast had been delayed by about six months because of the regional impact of the war involving Iran.
Turkey Raids Opposition TV Station Halk TV, Jails Four
Turkish police raided the Istanbul headquarters of pro-opposition broadcaster Halk TV at dawn on October 14, searching the premises and barring employees from entering as the incoming management halted live broadcasts.
The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor's Office said the raid formed part of an investigation into Halk TV owner Cafer Mahiroglu over alleged bribery, bid rigging and money laundering. Police detained 12 people. Mahiroglu, who lives in London, said seven members of his family were among those detained.
A court appointed the Savings Deposit Insurance Fund (TMSF) to take control of Halk TV and other companies owned by or linked to Mahiroglu, replacing their existing management.
Later on October 14, authorities also blocked access to Halk TV's accounts on YouTube, X, Facebook, Instagram, TikTok and Telegram, according to EngelliWeb, a censorship-monitoring project run by the Freedom of Expression Association (IFOD).
Halk TV Editor-in-Chief Suat Toktas resigned on October 16, refusing to work under state-appointed management. Journalist Kursad Oguz also announced his departure from the broadcaster.
Authorities jailed Harika Akkaya, Murat Kocak, Suleyman Ozen and Mehmet Necati Yagci. They placed four other detainees under house arrest and released the remaining four under judicial supervision.
Halk TV's takeover brings the number of television channels in Turkey placed under trustee administration over the past 20 months to 10. The list includes Flash TV, Ekoturk, TELE 1, and Halk TV, as well as six channels from the Ciner Media Group: Haberturk TV, Show TV, Bloomberg HT, HT Spor, Show Turk, and Show Max.
Turkey's Broadcasting Regulator Fines Two TV Stations Over Fund Crisis Coverage
Turkey's broadcasting regulator fined two television stations on October 16 for reporting that questioned government figures' links to an investment fund scandal.
The Radio and Television Supreme Council (RTUK) targeted Sözcü TV for coverage of allegations concerning Trade Minister Omer Bolat's investments and a broadcast questioning photographs showing ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) spokesman Omer Celik with a suspect in the investigation.
The regulator also fined Koza TV over broadcasts questioning which political figures investigators had yet to identify and alleging broader government involvement in the scandal.
RTUK imposed the maximum penalty of 3% of each station's advertising revenue from the previous month, citing violations of broadcasting rules on impartiality and accuracy.
Authorities Block X Accounts of Journalist and Opposition Party Amid Fund Scandal
Turkish journalist Bahadir Ozgur was released under judicial supervision on October 16 after authorities detained him over his reporting on an investment fund scandal, accusing him of violating the confidentiality of an investigation.
Police detained Ozgur on October 15 as part of an investigation led by the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor's Office. After police questioned him, authorities referred him to the courthouse on October 16, where prosecutors requested judicial supervision measures, including a travel ban and a requirement to report regularly to authorities.
The court granted the prosecutor's request and released Ozgur under those conditions.
Meanwhile, access to Ozgur's X account, which has 163,000 followers, has been blocked. However, X has not yet made the account inaccessible to users inside Turkey.
Separately, authorities ordered access to the official X account of the Workers' Party of Turkey (TİP), which has 582,000 followers, to be blocked. The authority that issued the order and its specific legal grounds remained unclear.
TİP said it believed the restriction stemmed from its statements and broadcasts exposing alleged wrongdoing involving investment funds. Ahmet Sik, a TIP lawmaker from Istanbul, said the blocking order followed the publication of a video concerning alleged misconduct in the fund scandal.
In a joint statement dated October 12, Human Rights Watch, ARTICLE 19, Turkey's Freedom of Expression Association (İFÖD), Amnesty International, the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) and 16 other organizations called on the Turkish government to immediately stop using blocking orders and other restrictive measures against online expression.
The organizations also urged X, Meta, and other social media companies to challenge disproportionate restrictions, provide affected users with relevant court decisions, and restore access to accounts blocked without sufficient justification.
Turkish Court Rejects Kavala's Release and Retrial Requests Despite ECtHR Ruling
A Turkish court has rejected jailed philanthropist and businessman Osman Kavala's requests for release and a retrial despite a binding European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) judgment requiring Turkey to free him and remedy the consequences of his conviction.
The Istanbul 13th High Criminal Court unanimously rejected Kavala's application on October 13, refusing to suspend his sentence, order his release or reopen his case following an August 25 judgment by the ECtHR Grand Chamber.
The court argued that the ECtHR does not function as an appeals court above Turkey's judiciary and that domestic courts retain responsibility for assessing evidence.
In a written statement published on October 16, Kavala criticized the court's decision, saying the judges had missed an opportunity to end a serious human rights violation. "The court's refusal to reopen the case also damages the reputation of the judiciary," Kavala said.
ECtHR Finds Turkey Violated Rights of 26 People Jailed After 2016 Coup Attempt
The European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) ruled unanimously on October 13 that Turkey violated the rights of 26 people jailed pending trial over alleged links to the Gulen movement following the failed coup attempt in 2016.
The court found that Turkish courts had failed to provide sufficient grounds to justify the applicants' continued detention. The ECtHR said legal presumptions and the seriousness of the charges could not replace concrete facts showing detention was necessary.
The court ordered Turkey to pay each applicant €1,500 in a lump sum to cover non-pecuniary damages, costs and expenses.
Turkey Detains Dozens in Operations Targeting Alleged Gulen Movement Links
Turkish authorities have detained dozens of people in separate operations targeting alleged links to the Gulen movement, Justice Minister Akin Gurlek said on October 14.
Gurlek said authorities detained 32 people in operations across several provinces as part of three investigations launched by prosecutors in Eskisehir and Izmir. The investigations targeted 34 people in total.
Separately, the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor's Office said authorities detained 24 people under warrants issued as part of three separate operations on October 16. The suspects included 15 public officials, the office said.
Turkey-Azerbaijan Dispute Escalates Over School Headscarf Restrictions
Turkey and Azerbaijan have become embroiled in a public dispute over restrictions on school headscarves, with officials on both sides trading criticism before senior Turkish officials sought to contain tensions between the two allies.
Oktay Saral, a chief adviser to Turkish President Erdogan, criticized the restrictions on October 12, arguing that girls should not lose access to education because they wear headscarves. “We expect Azerbaijan to reverse this mistake as soon as possible,” he wrote.
Leyla Sahin Usta, a deputy leader of the ruling Justice and Development Party's (AK Party) parliamentary group, and AK Party lawmaker Muhammet Mufit Aydin also called on Baku to reverse the restrictions after images circulated showing girls denied entry to schools.
The New Azerbaijan Party (YAP), led by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, condemned the Turkish officials' remarks on October 13 as “populist and irresponsible.” It argued that the countries' “one nation, two states” relationship did not give either side the right to interfere in the other's domestic affairs.
YAP urged the AK Party government to abandon what it described as a harmful policy of exploiting Azerbaijan's domestic issues for political purposes.
Azerbaijan's parliamentary working group on relations with Turkey also expressed concern over the remarks by Saral and AK Party lawmakers. It accused the AK Party of failing to prevent insults against Aliyev and questioned Turkey's tolerance of calls for protests outside Azerbaijani diplomatic missions.
Former Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim, who chairs the Council of Elders of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), defended Azerbaijan's right to make its own decisions and said Turkey must respect its sovereignty.
“We will punish anyone who attempts or ventures to do so in the strongest possible way,” Yildirim said in a video interview recorded the previous week and published on October 15. He also reportedly told the outlet by telephone that Saral's remarks did not reflect Erdogan's position or the Turkish state's policy.
On October 16, the AK Party called for disagreements with Azerbaijan to be resolved “in the family.” AK Party Deputy Chairman Kursad Zorlu, who oversees relations with Turkic states, urged respect for each country's decisions and sovereignty at an event in Ankara marking Kyrgyzstan's independence.
Meanwhile, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan was received by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Baku on October 16 while representing Erdogan at the seventh summit of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA), a forum for regional security cooperation.
Fidan said Turkish-Azerbaijani relations had weathered numerous historical tests and rested on solid strategic foundations. He warned against turning disagreements into social media propaganda and confirmed that he had discussed the matter with Aliyev.
Tensions continued on October 17, when Azerbaijani news outlet Qafqazinfo, which is considered close to Aliyev's administration, accused Turkey of orchestrating “coups and chaos.” The outlet cited a meeting Fidan held at the Youth Aid Foundation (Genclige Yardim Fonu) in Baku on October 17, alleging that the organization had links to Turkish intelligence.
The report claimed that the foundation served as a vehicle for expanding Turkey's influence in Azerbaijan, gathering intelligence and cultivating pro-Turkish cadres. It also alleged that Fidan gave instructions to young participants and made serious accusations against organizations with ties to Turkey.
The Turkish Embassy in Baku rejected the allegations as “entirely baseless slanders” in a statement after the report, which was subsequently taken down, appeared. The embassy said the claims sought to damage relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan.
Israeli President Herzog Flies Through Turkish Airspace on Azerbaijan Airlines Flight to Baku
Israeli President Isaac Herzog travelled to Baku aboard an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger flight on October 14, passing through Turkish airspace despite Ankara's ban on Israeli government aircraft, Middle East Eye (MEE) reported.
Herzog visited Azerbaijan to attend the seventh summit of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA).
Flight-tracking data from Flightradar24 showed Herzog travelling on flight J222, operated by Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL). The flight departed Tel Aviv at 11:35 a.m., crossed Turkish airspace and arrived in Baku at 3:40 p.m. local time.
Photographs and video footage from Herzog's welcoming ceremony in Baku showed him arriving aboard an AZAL Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner, matching the aircraft type listed by Flightradar24 for the flight, the report said. The arrival time also matched an announcement from Herzog's press team.
A Turkish official familiar with the matter told MEE that Azerbaijan had not informed Ankara that Herzog was aboard the aircraft.
Footage from the event showed Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan walking out of the room as Herzog began delivering his speech.
Turkish Crime Gang Suspected of Arson Attack on Polish Starlink Station
A Turkish crime gang may have carried out an arson attack on a Starlink station in Poland on behalf of Russian intelligence, targeting infrastructure used to support Ukraine's military, German magazine Der Spiegel reported on October 16.
The report suggested that two Turkish citizens detained in Germany over the attack may belong to the Daltonlar criminal group, or may have acted on instructions from people linked to the gang.
The suspects, identified as Umit E., 38, and Muslim T., 34, were detained on October 12 in Nurtingen, near Stuttgart in southwestern Germany. Authorities arrested them under European arrest warrants issued at Poland's request.
The alleged leader of the Daltonlar, Beratcan Gokdemir, who goes by the name “Can Dalton,” was detained in Russia in 2024 but was not extradited despite requests from Turkey. German security officials suspect Moscow may have protected Gokdemir in anticipation of receiving services in return. His current whereabouts remain unclear, Der Spiegel reported.
Trump Says He May Ask Turkey to Join Efforts Against Yemen's Houthis
US President Donald Trump said on October 13 that he might ask Turkey to take action against Yemen's Houthi movement in support of Saudi Arabia, expressing confidence that Turkish President Erdogan would agree to his request.
“I might do it,” Trump told reporters outside the White House when asked whether he would seek Turkey's participation in a response to the Houthis. He was speaking before departing for Alaska.
Trump described Erdogan as a friend and expressed respect for the Turkish president before adding, “President Erdogan, I think, would do as I ask.”
Egyptian and Turkish Foreign Ministers Discuss Iran Crisis, Regional Security in Baghdad
Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty discussed escalating regional crises, including tensions involving Iran, Yemen, Sudan, Libya and Syria, as well as security in the Red Sea, with his Turkish and Yemeni counterparts in separate meetings in Baghdad on October 17, Al-Ahram reported. The meetings took place on the sidelines of the 52nd session of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation's (OIC) Council of Foreign Ministers, held on October 17-18.
During talks with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, Abdelatty called for continued diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis involving Iran and the United States. The two ministers also exchanged views on developments in Yemen, Libya, Sudan and Syria.
Cyprus President Confirms Attendance at COP31 in Turkey Next Month
Cyprus President Nikos Christodoulides has confirmed that he will travel to Turkey next month to attend the UN climate summit in the southern province of Antalya, the Cyprus Mail reported.
Christodoulides announced on October 13 that he would attend the COP31 summit after diplomatic efforts secured his participation. “Of course I will attend. The Republic of Cyprus always attends these summits,” he said. He credited Cyprus's international partners and behind-the-scenes diplomatic contacts with securing the invitation.
Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erhurman also confirmed on October 14 that Turkish President Erdogan had invited him to the conference months in advance and that he would attend.
If the visit proceeds as planned, Christodoulides will become the first Cypriot president to visit Turkey in a decade. His predecessor, Nicos Anastasiades, last visited Turkey in 2016 to attend the UN World Humanitarian Summit in Istanbul.
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