ANALYSIS
"The U.S. Midterms and Erdoğan's Lost Bet" by Imdat Oner, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
For Ankara, the results are unfavorable from every perspective. Over the last decade, Erdoğan has invested heavily in his personal relationship with Trump and sought to conduct Turkey-U.S. relations largely through that channel. Apart from Trump's effusive praise and his visit to Turkey, this approach has produced no tangible gains. Congress now presents an entirely different picture, and a weakened president is in no position to advance Ankara's agenda.
Over this period, I have discussed Turkey-U.S. relations on various occasions with both Democratic and Republican members of Congress. On Turkey, however, they share a central concern with Republicans: they, too, distrust Erdoğan.
This should not be mistaken for hostility toward Turkey. Among the members of Congress I spoke with, outright, categorical opposition to the country was rare. Particularly in light of recent crises, they recognize Turkey's growing strategic importance. Their criticism is directed primarily at Erdoğan's policies, his style of governance, and his tendency to oscillate between rival powers. For this reason, lobbying alone will not resolve the problem. However much Ankara invests in its relations with Congress, a lasting improvement on Capitol Hill is unlikely so long as these concerns about Erdoğan's leadership persist.
"The Quiet Revolution in U.S.-Cypriot Relations" by Alan Makovsky and Jonah Brody, Foreign Policy
The broader challenge for the United States is to draw on Cyprus’s location and strengthen its military without stoking Turkish fears to the point of reigniting long-dormant hostilities, an outcome that is squarely against U.S. interests. For Cyprus, the corresponding danger is losing control over a relationship with a far more powerful partner, as a U.S. military increasingly comfortable operating from the island may eventually seek to stage operations from it, drawing the ROC into conflicts that it would prefer to avoid.
"Turkey’s Four Headaches Are Also Europe’s" by Marc Pierini, Carnegie Europe
The rapid expansion of Turkey’s defense industry has resulted in multiple agreements—sales, joint ventures, and acquisitions—though not in Turkey’s formal inclusion in security discussions among Western European countries, with the exception of the coalition of the willing in support of Ukraine. In this respect, the 2026 NATO summit in Ankara served as a showcase for Turkey’s defense industry, but it did not provide its president with the political recognition he expected in the security domain.
The fear of losing power in a fair election—or simply the prospect of political opponents, the media, civil society organizations, and ordinary citizens exerting their fundamental freedoms—has convinced Turkey’s leadership that the best way forward is to hammer the last nails into the country’s rule-of-law coffin. It is a strategy that is hard to understand unless the underlying bet is a total collapse of democratic Europe.
In the future, Europe’s political landscape will be more fractured, and European politicians may be less inclined to listen to Turkey’s admonitions about security policy or requests for particular trade arrangements. Despite affinities between some authoritarian leaders, major divergences will also grow on questions of migration, religion, and EU accession.
POLITICS
Parliament Approves Mutual Defense Pact with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan
Turkey’s parliament has approved a mutual defense agreement with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan that treats an armed attack against any one of the three countries as an attack against all, despite opposition warnings that the pact could draw Ankara into regional conflicts.
The Mecca Joint Defense Agreement was approved on November 5 by 279 votes to 119, completing Turkey’s parliamentary ratification process. A total of 398 lawmakers participated in the vote.
The ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party), its ally the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) backed the agreement. The main opposition New Party, the Good Party, the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) and other opposition lawmakers voted against it.
Opposition lawmakers warned that the agreement could involve Turkey in conflicts stemming from Saudi Arabia’s confrontation with Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels or tensions between Pakistan and India.
The main opposition New Party leader Ozgur Ozel said his party would not support any arrangement that could make Turkey a party to a war in Yemen. “The New Party will never remain silent about or support Turkey being made a party to the war and Turkish soldiers being sent to the deserts of Yemen,” Ozel said.
Good Party leader Musavat Dervisoglu also rejected the agreement, saying, “We say ‘No’ to turning Turkish soldiers into Aramco’s legionnaires; we say ‘No’ to the Mecca Agreement,” referring to Saudi Arabia’s state-controlled oil company.
Former Minister Sayan Kaya Arrested in Multi-Billion-Dollar Investment Fund Scandal
Istanbul prosecutors have summoned former Family Minister Fatma Betül Sayan Kaya, her husband and a former senior financial regulator for further questioning in an investigation into a multi-billion-dollar investment fund scandal.
Sayan Kaya and İlyas Kaya appeared at the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office on November 5. After her statement, prosecutors referred Sayan Kaya to court and requested her arrest. Her husband, İlyas Kaya, and former Capital Markets Board (SPK) Chairman İbrahim Omer Gonul were also brought before a judge, with prosecutors seeking judicial control measures for both.
According to the prosecutor’s referral document, Sayan Kaya sold her shares in OZATD one day before authorities decided to liquidate the funds. The proceeds from the sale were credited to her account on the same day.
An SPK report indicated that Kaya was suspected of possessing non-public information that could influence the price or value of a capital market instrument or affect investors’ decisions.
An Istanbul court subsequently ordered Sayan Kaya’s arrest on charges of violating capital markets legislation and membership in a criminal organization. İlyas Kaya and Gonul were released under judicial control measures.
Separately, authorities arrested Borsa Istanbul Chief Executive Officer Korkmaz Ergun on bribery charges on November 3. Ergun had been detained for questioning on October 31 as part of the same investigation, which Justice Minister Yilmaz Tunc linked to a criminal network involving senior financial officials.
The investigation, led by the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office, expanded on November 7 with the arrest of several other individuals, including former SPK Deputy Chairman Enver Usca, Ercan Urkan, former head of the SPK’s Market Surveillance and Inspection Department, Mustafa Alper Tas, a department head at the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BDDK), and Umit Sincanli, an executive at Tera Holding.
Usca, Urkan and Taş were remanded in custody pending trial on bribery charges. Sincanlı was arrested on charges of membership in a criminal organization and money laundering.
Meanwhile, Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek disclosed the scale of repayments to investors during parliamentary budget deliberations on November 5.
Speaking before the Parliamentary Planning and Budget Committee during discussions on his ministry's 2027 budget, Simsek said authorities had paid out 130.2 billion Turkish lira, covering 614,874 accounts across 108 funds undergoing liquidation. The payments went to 420,031 individual investors, 179,449 of whom received the full net value of their investments.
DEM Party Co-Chair Says Turkey's Peace Process Still Moves Forward
Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) Co-Chair Tuncer Bakirhan addressed current developments at a party meeting. Calling on all segments of society to embrace the peace process that the government has described as a “Turkey without terrorism,” Bakirhan said it had not reached a dead end and was “moving forward in some way.”
Bakirhan stressed that the government must take steps commensurate with the importance of the process. He said its success would bring relief to all segments of society and could create a more democratic and relaxed political environment in which parties and social groups could participate more freely.
Babacan Says Pension Debate Signals Approaching Election
DEVA Party Chairman Ali Babacan commented on proposed adjustments to retirement pensions, responding to Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz's social media post. “If our retirees have finally crossed the government's mind, it means an election is approaching,” Babacan said.
He added that retirees would not forget the financial hardships they had endured or the injustices they had faced for years. “But rest assured, they will not forget the financial hardships they have endured or the injustices they have faced for years. They will deliver the necessary message to the government at the ballot box,” Babacan said.
ECONOMY
Annual Inflation Rises to %29.77 in October
Turkey’s annual consumer price inflation edged up to 29.77 percent in October from 29.73 percent in September, while monthly inflation accelerated to 2.58 percent from 1.84 percent, according to data released by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) on November 3. The 12-month average inflation rate stood at 31.23 percent.
Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuel costs recorded the highest annual increase among the main categories, rising 40.24 percent, TurkStat reported. Transportation prices climbed 36.39 percent, while food and non-alcoholic beverage prices increased 27.73 percent.
Meanwhile, the independent Inflation Research Group (ENAG) put annual inflation at 45.12 percent in October, with consumer prices rising 2.68 percent from the previous month.
Turkey's Central Bank Reserves Fall By $4.1 Billion To $158.1 Billion
The Central Bank’s total reserves fell by $4.084 billion in the week ending October 30, dropping to $158.107 billion, according to the bank's latest weekly money and banking statistics released on November 5.
Gross foreign currency reserves declined by $2.955 billion to $56.09 billion, down from $59.045 billion on October 23.
Gold reserves also fell by $1.129 billion during the same period, decreasing from $103.146 billion to $102.017 billion.
The combined decline brought total reserves down from $162.191 billion to $158.107 billion, their lowest level since June 26, according to the data.
Foreign Investors Sell $3.65 Billion in Turkish Stocks and Bonds Over Seven Weeks
Foreign investors recorded net sales of $3.65 billion in Turkish stocks and bonds over the seven weeks through October 30, following the emergence of an investment fund crisis in mid-September, the financial news website Ekonomim reported on November 6.
Most of the outflows came from bond holdings. Foreign investors sold a net $1.67 billion in corporate bonds and $1.53 billion in government bonds during the period. Net sales of Turkish stocks totaled $444.3 million.
In the week ending October 30 alone, foreign investors sold approximately $879 million in Turkish securities, according to figures from the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
Government bonds accounted for the largest share of the weekly outflows, at $750.4 million. Investors also recorded net sales of $66.3 million in stocks and $62.3 million in corporate bonds.
Turkey's External Debt Rises to $572.8 Billion, Fifth-Highest Among Developing Economies
Turkey's total external debt stock reached $572.8 billion at the end of 2025, up from $509.9 billion a year earlier, according to the World Bank's International Debt Report 2026, published on November 5.
The figure includes both public-sector borrowing and debt incurred by private companies and other entities from foreign creditors.
Among developing economies, Turkey ranked fifth in total external debt. China topped the list with $2.278 trillion, followed by India with $763.5 billion, Brazil with $659.8 billion and Mexico with $645 billion.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Turkey's Prison Population Rises to Nearly 438,000, Exceeding Capacity By 44%
Turkey's prison population reached 437,889 as of November 2, 2026, including 365,758 convicted inmates and 72,131 people held in pre-trial detention, according to recent data from the Justice Ministry's General Directorate of Prisons and Detention Houses.
The country's 402 correctional facilities have a combined capacity of 304,304, putting occupancy at 144 percent. The number of inmates exceeds the available capacity by 133,585.
The latest figures show a net increase of 3,552 inmates between October 1 and November 2.
The number of children held in penal institutions has also surpassed 5,000, reaching 5,121 as of November 2, the ministry said. Of these, 3,809 are in pre-trial detention, while 1,312 have been convicted.
EU Says Turkey’s Democratic Record Continues to Diverge from Membership Standards
The European Commission warned in its annual enlargement report, dated November 4, that Turkey’s deteriorating democratic record is widening its gap with the political standards required for EU membership, despite closer cooperation between Ankara and Brussels.
The commission said intensified legal proceedings against elected officials, opposition politicians and civil society groups had deepened concerns about Turkey’s commitment to democratic principles.
Its detailed assessment found that judicial and administrative measures were overwhelmingly directed at opposition-run municipalities. It also identified political influence over the Council of Judges and Prosecutors (HSK) as a structural obstacle to judicial independence.
The report said the underlying reasons for the suspension of EU membership negotiations, which have been at a standstill since 2018, remained unresolved.
Turkey’s Foreign Ministry rejected the report’s findings on political criteria, the judiciary and fundamental rights, describing them as baseless. It called the EU’s approach “prejudiced and unfair” and accused the bloc of applying double standards.
Turkey Blocks Access to at Least 207 X Accounts in 2 Days
Turkish authorities blocked access to at least 2,137 accounts on social media platform X in September and October, including accounts belonging to journalists, news outlets and political parties, according to a freedom of expression organization.
The Freedom of Expression Association (İFÖD) documented at least 867 blocked accounts in October, following 1,270 in September, through its EngelliWeb project, which monitors internet censorship in Turkey. The association said authorities were also targeting replacement accounts and accounts whose usernames had been changed.
The two-month total was nearly half the more than 4,800 X accounts that IFOD documented as blocked under Article 8/A of Turkey's internet law between 2015 and 2025.
İFÖD also reported that authorities blocked at least 207 additional X accounts on November 1 and 2. The vast majority of the identified accounts were made inaccessible to users in Turkey by X itself.
Turkey Detains 93 People in Operations Targeting Gulen Movement Across 32 Provinces
Turkey’s Interior Ministry said security forces detained 72 people on November 2 during operations targeting the Gulen movement across 32 provinces.
The ministry alleged that those people were active in the movement’s current organizational structure, provided financial assistance, and shared movement-related content on social media.
Authorities formally arrested 41 of the 72 suspects, while legal proceedings against the others remained ongoing, the ministry said.
In a separate development, Turkish police detained 21 people on November 3 in two investigations into alleged links to the movement. Seven of those suspects were accused of providing financial assistance to the families of imprisoned individuals.
The first investigation targeted 11 people suspected of financially supporting alleged movement members and engaging in unspecified activities linked to the group. Police detained seven suspects and continued searching for the remaining four.
In the second investigation, police detained all 14 people named in arrest warrants during simultaneous raids across 10 provinces. Prosecutors accused them of participating in what authorities described as the movement’s clandestine network within public institutions.
FOREIGN POLICY
Erdogan Reaffirms Support for Azerbaijan's Peace Efforts During Karabakh Visit
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reaffirmed Turkey's support for Azerbaijan's efforts to establish lasting peace in the region during a visit to Shusha on November 8 to mark the sixth anniversary of Karabakh's liberation.
"Just as we have supported Azerbaijan's just struggle, we also support its sincere efforts to establish lasting peace in our region," Erdogan said at a joint news conference with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.
Speaking after a bilateral meeting with Aliyev at the Shusha Governor's Office, Erdogan also praised Azerbaijan's ongoing reconstruction efforts in the Karabakh territories.
Highlighting the longstanding ties between the two countries, Erdogan said relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan had reached their current level after overcoming various historical challenges. He stressed that the bond between the two nations extended beyond their shared language, history and culture. "With God's permission, our unity will endure forever," he said.
Aliyev, for his part, thanked Turkey for its support during the 44-day Second Karabakh War, saying Azerbaijan would never forget the solidarity shown by Erdogan and the Turkish people.
Describing the partnership between the two countries as "eternal and unshakable," Aliyev said attempts to undermine their close relations would fail. "Our unity and brotherhood with Turkey are unshakable. Those who seek to drive a wedge between us will never succeed," he said.
"We will not allow anyone to come between us or cast a shadow over our unity, brotherhood and solidarity for their own personal interests," he added.
Aliyev is expected to attend the COP31 climate summit in Antalya on November 11.
Erdogan Vows Continued Engagement With Washington After U.S. Midterm Elections
President Erdogan said Turkey would maintain close dialogue with both the US administration and Congress after Democrats won control of the House of Representatives and the Senate in the November 2 midterm elections.
In his first public comments on the results, Erdogan said Turkish-American relations rested on longstanding ties and solid foundations. "Our greatest wish is for the election results to contribute to lasting peace and stability in our region,” Erdogan told reporters aboard his return flight from South Korea.
Meanwhile, New Party leader Ozgur Ozel portrayed the Republican Party’s losses as a warning to Erdogan over his close relationship with US President Donald Trump. “Those whom Trump loves are losing one by one,” Ozel said, arguing that the two presidents had placed excessive confidence in their mutual support.
Following the elections, Erdogan held his first telephone conversation with Trump on November 7. The two leaders discussed bilateral relations, tensions between Iran and the United States, and the war between Ukraine and Russia.
During the call, Erdogan said cooperation between Turkey and the United States would continue to expand, and that the two countries would work to build further momentum in their bilateral relations.
Turkey and South Korea Agree to Deepen Nuclear Energy and Defense Cooperation
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan paid an official visit to South Korea on November 3-4, during which the two countries agreed to expand cooperation in nuclear energy and defense at a summit in Seoul.
Speaking at a joint news conference on November 3, Erdogan said documents signed on nuclear energy, building on a memorandum of understanding reached in November 2025, “will take this cooperation even further.” “During my meeting with the president, we underlined the need to increase the number of successful joint projects,” Erdogan said.
South Korean President Lee Jae-myung said cooperation on Turkey’s planned Sinop nuclear power plant, including site assessments and the work of a joint working group, was “progressing smoothly” under the November 2025 memorandum.
“Building on this progress, we have signed a memorandum on nuclear project financing cooperation to proactively support Korean companies’ participation in Turkey’s new nuclear power projects,” Lee said.
The two leaders also agreed to expand defense industry ties through increased joint production, technological cooperation and efforts to help companies from both countries enter third-country markets together, Lee said.
They further agreed to broaden cooperation into emerging growth sectors, including biotechnology, energy, science and technology, natural resources and mining.
In the energy sector, the countries agreed to establish the Korea-Turkey Energy Transition Forum to promote cooperation in clean energy, hydrogen and renewable energy.
Fidan Says Dispute Over Greece-Cyprus Electricity Cable Surveys Resolved
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on November 7 that a dispute over seabed surveys for a planned electricity cable linking Greece and Cyprus had been resolved, a day after Ankara challenged the planned work.
Greek and Cypriot authorities issued navigational notices, known as Navtex messages, on November 6 to alert ships to the planned surveys and other activities or potential hazards at sea.
Turkey responded with a counter-notice, arguing that part of the survey area falls within its continental shelf. The Turkish Foreign Ministry described the planned operations as unauthorized scientific research, saying the process for obtaining Ankara's consent had not been completed. It also claimed that Turkey had canceled the Greek and Cypriot notices.
However, Fidan sought to downplay the dispute in comments to the Greek daily Kathimerini on November 7. "Everything is normal, everything is fine," he said, without providing details of any agreement or explaining how the disagreement had been resolved.
The French-flagged research vessel Abeille Marengo is expected to depart from Heraklion, a port on the Greek island of Crete, on November 9 to resume seabed surveys for the electricity cable.
Energy Minister Says Planned Gas Pipeline to Cyprus Could Eventually Supply Power to Entire Island
Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said a planned 101-kilometer (63-mile) natural gas pipeline linking Turkey with the breakaway Turkish Cypriot community could eventually help supply electricity to the entire island.
Speaking to representatives of international media in Istanbul on November 5, Bayraktar said Turkey planned to transport natural gas to the island to generate electricity at a gas-fired power plant in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC).
He said the Turkish Cypriot side could eventually sell some of the electricity it generates to the Greek Cypriot administration if the two sides reach an agreement, after meeting its own electricity needs. "If we find some gas or someone else can find some in the eastern Mediterranean, they can use this pipeline with the reverse flow, and they can bring the gas to the island and from the island to Turkey and to the European market," he said.
Bayraktar added that Ankara was also open to energy cooperation with Greece.
Turkey To Begin Gradual Handover of Bashiqa Military Base to Iraq
Turkey will begin gradually handing over the Bashiqa-Zilikan military base to the Iraqi government, according to a joint statement issued on November 8 by the two countries.
The announcement follows a September 23 meeting in New York between Turkish President Erdogan and Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Zeidi, after which the two sides said Turkish forces would gradually transfer control of the facility to Baghdad.
The statement also said the parties had agreed, in line with a previous agreement, to activate a Joint Security Coordination Committee aimed at ending the presence of members of the PKK terrorist organization in Sinjar.
.svg.avif){kind=small}
