"With or Without Netanyahu: The Lasting Turkey–Israel Rift" by Mustafa Enes Esen, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
Relations between Turkey and Israel are unlikely to improve dramatically anytime soon, and the National Intelligence Academy's report shows why. The report, The Anatomy of Israeli Expansionism, was published in Turkish and is an open source that reflects the thinking of some influential pro-government circles in Turkish intelligence and the ruling AKP. It is also the most recent and most detailed public account to date of how Turkish intelligence views Israel. The academy is part of Turkey's intelligence service, MİT, which has gained considerable influence over the country's domestic and foreign policy over the past decade.
The report describes the rivalry between Turkey and Israel as a clash between two views of regional order. According to the report, Ankara wants neighbors that are strong and control their own territory, while Israel prefers weak and divided neighbors that allow it to intervene when it chooses. As a result, every gain in Turkish influence limits Israel's freedom of action. The report therefore treats the rivalry as lasting rather than temporary, identifying Syria as the place where the two views clash most directly. It also points to competition in the Eastern Mediterranean, in the Horn of Africa.
Based on this diagnosis, the report sets out general principles for Turkey. First, Turkey should not answer every Israeli move in kind. Second, it should not try to replace Israel as the dominant power in the region. Instead, it should help neighboring countries build stronger states and security forces, support closer regional cooperation, and prevent ethnic and religious divisions from inviting foreign intervention.
The report then turns to specific countries. On Palestine, Turkey should continue supporting a two-state solution and help protect the land, people, and institutions a future Palestinian state would need. On Lebanon, it should support the country's borders and its government's authority. On Syria, it should help rebuild a central government strong enough to control its own territory. The report also links Israel to Turkey's domestic "Terror-Free Turkey" peace process with the PKK. It argues that better relations among Turks, Kurds, and Arabs would make it harder for Israel to exploit ethnic divisions in the region.
Finally, the report looks at the wider region. It warns that regional security could come to depend entirely on networks built around Israel, such as US support, normalization agreements with Arab states, and Israel's integration into US Central Command. Turkey should ensure that no security, energy, or trade arrangement that excludes it becomes the only option. The aim is to prevent Israel from turning its military power and US backing into unlimited freedom of action.
As the National Intelligence Academy's report argues, a change of leadership in Israel is unlikely to alter its foreign policy. (For Israel, however, a change of leadership in Ankara would make all the difference.) Tensions between Turkey and Israel are therefore likely to persist for the foreseeable future. Syria, where both countries are active and pursue opposing goals, remains the most dangerous arena. Preventing an escalation there will require sustained American engagement with both sides, rather than dismissing the dispute between Turkey and Israel as mere political theater.
"As the PKK packs up, will Turkiye also leave Iraq?" by Mehmet Alaca, Amwaj.media
On Oct. 15, Erdogan's chief advisor Mehmet Ucum said he considered it highly likely that Turkiye's National Security Council would announce a decision on the peace process before the end of the year. Under the August law, that decision would formally declare the PKK's end and start a six-month process to reintegrate eligible members, according to Asharq Al-Awsat.
A PKK withdrawal does not make Turkiye's departure from Iraq automatic. But it does seem to weaken the case for maintaining existing deployments at their current scale. Whether Bashiqa becomes a model will depend on Baghdad taking full responsibility for security in areas previously held by the PKK, and, critically, on its doing so on terms acceptable to Ankara and other regional stakeholders.
"How Turkey’s defence industry is squeezing Greek foreign policy" by Eftychios Damilakis, Brussels Signal
Turkey is not developing its defence industry solely to equip its armed forces. It is systematically transforming the sector into an instrument of economic power, diplomatic reach and strategic influence. Every export contract, co-production agreement and new technological partnership expands a network of states and companies with an interest in maintaining productive relations with Ankara.
This is the dimension that directly concerns Greece. The growth of Turkey’s defence industry is altering not only the military balance but also the diplomatic environment in which Athens must defend its sovereign rights and secure international support in the event of a crisis.
The political consequence is clear: by creating an increasingly dense network of strategic, economic and technological interests around Ankara, Turkey’s defence industry is tightening the squeeze on Greek foreign policy. This does not mean that countries cooperating with Turkey will automatically adopt Ankara’s positions at Greece’s expense. It does mean, though, that they gain additional reasons to avoid a rupture with Turkey. When governments, armed forces and major companies link jobs, production lines, technological programmes and security requirements to the country, the political cost of a decisive confrontation with Ankara rises.
"Turkey Courts Gulf Oil Weeks Before Hosting The World's Climate Talks" by Ken Silverstein, Forbes
In Antalya, it will ask the world to judge it as a climate leader. In the capital city of Ankara, it is using the war with Iran to make itself the indispensable route for Middle Eastern oil and gas, and to gain leverage over every producer that needs a way out.
Here is the contradiction. A COP host’s job is to move the world away from fossil fuels. Turkey’s energy strategy bets the other way. Pipelines are built to run for decades, and every barrel of Iraqi crude or cubic meter of natural gas that crosses Turkey earns Ankara fees and influence. The more oil and gas the world needs from the Gulf and the Caspian, the more Turkey gains.
Call it hypocrisy or call it hedging. Either way, the record is clear. Turkey’s solar farms are real, but its priority is fossil fuels. The country presiding over the world’s climate talks has a stake in the very fuels those talks are meant to phase down.
Mecca Defense Pact Advances in Parliament Despite Opposition Objections
A proposal to ratify the Mecca Mutual Defense Pact between Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan was approved by parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee on October 27, advancing the agreement toward a vote in the General Assembly.
The proposal received support from the ruling People’s Alliance and the Republican People’s Party (CHP). Representatives of the New Party, the DEM Party, New Path and the Good Party voted against it.
The 16-article proposal is expected to be brought before the General Assembly in the coming days.
In a statement on October 27, New Party leader Ozgur Ozel said sending Turkish troops into conflict zones or involving them in offensive operations to serve the interests of the United States or Israel was “absolutely unacceptable.”
Ozel said his party would not remain silent or support Turkey entering an agreement with a country at war, becoming a party to that conflict, or sending Turkish soldiers to Yemen’s deserts.
New Party to Hold First Major Congress on November 14–15
The New Party will hold its first major congress in Ankara on November 14–15. The party’s assembly met online on October 28 under Ozgur Ozel’s chairmanship. Speaking after the meeting, Zeynel Emre, the party’s deputy chairman and spokesperson, announced that the first regular congress would take place at Ankara Arena Sports Hall.
39 Arrested in Bakirkoy Municipality Tender Probe
The Bakirkoy Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office has launched an investigation into allegations of irregularities in municipal tender files that caused public financial losses and unlawful demands for money from business owners.
Authorities issued detention orders for 68 suspects, including deputy mayors, municipal council members, municipal employees and representatives of companies that participated in tenders.
Investigators examined 42 tender files processed through an open negotiation procedure by various Bakirkoy Municipality departments between 2024 and 2026.
On October 27, authorities detained 58 suspects. The number of suspects later rose to 63.
Of those 63, a court ordered the arrest of 39 on October 31, including 20 municipal officials. Another 18 suspects were released under judicial control, while six were released after giving statements to prosecutors.
Those arrested include deputy mayors Abdulhamit Pehlivan, Cemalettin Ozdemir, Arda Karadag and Ali Riza Akyuz; acting deputy mayor Nurcan Alan; municipal council members Mustafa Fazlioglu and Erkan Gul; as well as municipal department heads and company representatives.
Turkey Court Orders Release of Suspended Uskudar Mayor
A Turkish court on October 29 ordered the release of Sinem Dedetas, the suspended opposition mayor of Istanbul's Uskudar district, to house arrest after 90 days in pretrial detention on corruption charges.
Dedetas subsequently left prison, her lawyer, Akin Atalay, said in posts on X.
Atalay said the court had granted a request to release Dedetas under judicial supervision in the form of house arrest. In a subsequent post, he confirmed her release, saying he had picked her up from prison.
Turkey’s Unemployment Rate Rises to 8.4% in September as Jobless Total Nears 3 Million
Turkey’s unemployment rate climbed by 0.5 percentage points in September from the previous month to 8.4%, with the number of unemployed people reaching nearly 3 million, according to data released by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat).
The number of unemployed people aged 15 and older increased by 198,000 from August to 2.967 million, TurkStat said in its September labor force statistics.
The unemployment rate stood at 6.9% among men and 11.3% among women.
Youth unemployment also rose sharply. The jobless rate among people aged 15 to 24 increased by 1.6 percentage points from August to 14.8% in September.
The rate was 10.4% among young men, compared with 23.3% among young women.
BlackRock Cuts Turkish Stock Exposure After Initially Backing Market’s Potential
Emily Fletcher, co-manager of BlackRock’s London-listed Frontiers Investment Trust, described Turkey as a market with strong potential in January 2026. The fund’s holdings reflected that optimism, with its exposure to Turkish assets rising from 9.3% of net assets in October 2025 to 11% in February 2026, Turkiye Today reported.
Based on the trust’s reported assets of £326.6 million at the time, the February allocation was worth approximately £36 million ($48 million).
But the fund reversed course over the following three months, cutting its Turkish exposure to just 0.5% and exiting its positions in Akbank and Isbank. By the end of June, Turkish stocks no longer appeared in its reported holdings.
The shift came as the fund’s managers grew increasingly concerned that rising oil prices and the war involving Iran could derail the disinflation process underpinning their investment case for Turkey.
Borsa Istanbul Chief Detained as Muhsin Atci Appointed Head of Turkey’s Market Regulator
Korkmaz Enes Ergun, general manager of Borsa Istanbul A.Ş., was taken into custody on the evening of October 31 as part of an investigation into the investment fund crisis that has shaken Turkey’s financial markets. Ergun faces charges of “membership in an organization established to commit crimes” and “bribery.” He was appointed general manager of Borsa Istanbul in 2021.
Following a decision by the company’s board of directors on November 1, Atila Türeli, a deputy general manager, was appointed acting general manager.
Meanwhile, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan appointed Muhsin Atci, the former head of the country’s Tax Audit Board, as chairman of the Capital Markets Board (SPK), Turkey’s financial markets regulator. According to a decision published in the Official Gazette on November 1, Erdogan also appointed Ersin Basar Ekmekci as deputy chairman and Yasemin Girici as a board member.
Market Regulator Raises Qualified Investor Threshold Fivefold to 50 Million Liras
Turkey’s Capital Markets Board (SPK) raised the financial asset threshold for qualified investors fivefold on October 26, increasing the minimum from 10 million liras to 50 million liras (about $1 million). The regulator also raised the minimum required transaction volume from 5 million liras to 25 million liras.
On the same day, the SPK extended the deadline for compliance with the new rules until the end of January. It also abolished an exemption for public-sector securities from fund investment limits and scrapped a separate exemption from qualified-investor thresholds for real estate and venture capital funds.
Turkish Prisoner, 73, Dies Amid Calls for Release on Health Grounds
Abdullah Tirpan, a 73-year-old Turkish prisoner convicted over links to the Gulen movement, died on October 26 after authorities kept him in prison despite his deteriorating health and repeated appeals for his release.
Tirpan's family and supporters had warned that he could die without urgent medical intervention. However, state medical authorities had repeatedly deemed him fit to remain in prison.
He died at Istanbul's Basaksehir Cam and Sakura City Hospital, where authorities had transferred him from Metris Prison the previous week.
Doctors amputated his left leg below the knee on October 22 because of advanced gangrene. His condition deteriorated after the surgery, and he was transferred to intensive care and placed on a ventilator on October 25.
Turkey Detains 10 in Raids Over Alleged Gulen Movement Links
Turkish police detained 10 people on October 30 over alleged ties to the Gulen movement during coordinated raids across three provinces. The operations took place in Istanbul and the western provinces of Aydin and Izmir.
At Least 31 X Accounts Including Two Journalists Blocked in Turkey
Authorities blocked at least 31 accounts on X on October 26, including those belonging to journalists Birsen Altuntas and Erk Acarer, according to the Freedom of Expression Association (IFÖD).
The association said the blocking orders were issued under Article 8/A of Law No. 5651, which allows authorities to restrict online content on grounds including national security and public order.
Turkey Nominates OSCE Chief Sinirlioglu for Next UN Secretary-General
Turkey has nominated Feridun Hadi Sinirlioglu, secretary-general of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), as a candidate to become the next United Nations secretary-general.
In a letter dated October 30 to the presidents of the UN General Assembly and Security Council, Turkey's UN envoy, Ahmet Yildiz, formally submitted President Erdogan's nomination in accordance with the UN Charter and a General Assembly resolution.
Erdogan cited Sinirlioglu's more than 40 years of diplomatic experience, including his previous roles as foreign minister and Turkey's permanent representative to the United Nations. He also highlighted Sinirlioglu's 2023 appointment to lead an independent assessment of the situation in Afghanistan.
Aliyev Skips Turkic States Summit in Ankara; Azerbaijan Welcomes UAE's Candidate for UNSG
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev's aides described his absence from Friday's Organization of Turkic States (OTS) summit in Ankara as a reciprocal response to Turkish President Erdogan's decision to skip a meeting in Baku earlier this month, Turkish journalist Deniz Zeyrek reported on the T24 news website.
According to Zeyrek, one of Aliyev's aides pointed to Erdogan's absence from the October 15 Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) summit in Baku. Turkey sent Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan to represent the country instead.
The aide said Azerbaijan took the same approach, sending Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov to the OTS summit in Ankara, a gathering aimed at promoting cooperation among Turkic-speaking countries. OTS summit brought together Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, and Turkey assumed the organization’s rotating chairmanship.
Aliyev's aides also reportedly urged Ankara to take action against seven Turkish citizens accused of targeting Azerbaijan and its leadership over school uniform regulations that have reportedly resulted in girls wearing Islamic headscarves being excluded from classes.
They complained that Turkish authorities had questioned only two of the seven individuals on a list submitted by Baku. They wanted Ankara to investigate all seven and shut down social media accounts accused of targeting Azerbaijan, Zeyrek reported.
Meanwhile, Azerbaijan welcomed the candidacy of Lana Zeki Nusseibeh, the United Arab Emirates' minister of state, for UN secretary-general.
Turkey nominated Feridun Hadi Sinirlioglu, the secretary-general of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, for the position. However, Baku's statement welcoming Nusseibeh's candidacy stopped short of explicitly committing Azerbaijan to supporting her in the selection process.
Erdogan Urges Russia, Ukraine to Avoid Black Sea Escalation During Zelensky Visit
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Istanbul on October 31, urging Russia and Ukraine to act responsibly and avoid attacks on civilian vessels in the Black Sea.
Zelensky visited Turkey at Erdogan's invitation and was welcomed with an official ceremony at the Turkish president's Dolmabahce Office. The two leaders held bilateral and delegation-level talks before addressing a joint news conference.
"Attacks against civilian vessels and actions that further escalate tensions in the Black Sea serve no one's interests," Erdogan said, describing such strikes as unacceptable and calling on both sides to act responsibly.
"We will continue our talks with the parties concerned with a view to restoring the safety of navigation in the Black Sea," he said, adding that an agreement on maritime security could give fresh impetus to efforts to achieve lasting peace in Ukraine.
Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler had also warned Russia and Ukraine against further attacks on commercial vessels in the Black Sea, saying Ankara reserved the right to take legal action over the strikes in its most direct intervention to date.
Speaking on October 28 in Sofia after a security meeting of defense ministers and military chiefs from Black Sea littoral states Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria, Guler said a commercial vessel was struck by three drones in Bulgaria's maritime jurisdiction on October 28.
For his part, Ukrainian President Zelensky accused Russia of undermining security in the Black Sea and said the issue featured prominently in his discussions with Erdogan. "We discussed with President Erdogan some ideas and proposals that can help. And I thank Mr. President personally for this dialogue," Zelensky said.
The Ukrainian president also said he discussed with Erdogan the format of a possible next round of talks involving Russia, Ukraine and the United States, planned for November in the United Arab Emirates. Zelensky said the discussions covered options for involving Turkey, Europe and other partners, including the possibility of holding a meeting in Turkey.
Erdogan, Trump Discuss Bilateral Relations, Ukraine, Middle East in Successive Calls
Turkish President Erdogan and US President Donald Trump held two telephone conversations on October 28 and 29, discussing bilateral ties, Russia's war in Ukraine, tensions in the Middle East and a summit of Turkic states in Ankara, Turkey's Communications Directorate said.
Erdogan told Trump that Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, members of the Mecca Joint Defense Alliance, were closely monitoring developments in Yemen and the Strait of Hormuz and supported a diplomatic solution.
On Ukraine, Erdogan said Turkey was ready to support efforts to revive diplomacy between Kyiv and Moscow and end the war through negotiations.
Trump also congratulated Erdogan and the Turkish people on Republic Day, which marks the founding of the Turkish Republic on October 29, 1923.
The following day, Trump called Erdogan, who hosted visiting leaders at a Republic Day dinner, and wished him success at the Organization of Turkic States summit in Ankara.
Erdogan conveyed greetings from the leaders attending the dinner, the Communications Directorate said.
Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan Hold Talks with Iran to Ease Regional Tensions
Senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan met with Iranian officials in Tehran on October 26 in an effort to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East, marking the first high-level engagement between Iran and the three countries since they signed the Mecca Mutual Defense Pact in August.
Saudi Arabia was represented by Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman, Pakistan by Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Turkey by intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin.
Iranian state media released images showing President Masoud Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, attending the meetings.
The talks reportedly covered US-Iran negotiations, Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, the Strait of Hormuz and the US blockade of Iranian ports. The four countries agreed to continue their dialogue to strengthen cooperation on peace and security, Iranian state media reported.
Turkey Rejects Claims of Interference in Israeli Elections as ‘Baseless’
Turkey on October 29 rejected allegations in international media and on social media that it had interfered in Israel's recent elections, describing them as "entirely baseless."
The Communications Directorate's Center for Countering Disinformation said the claims were part of a "deliberate and blatant disinformation campaign aimed at manipulating public opinion."
The center urged the public not to believe reports and allegations it said were intended to mislead.
Turkey Hosts Talks Between Rival Libyan Administrations on Reunification
Turkey hosted talks last week between Libya's rival eastern and western administrations aimed at reunifying the country, but the discussions ended without an agreement, a senior Turkish official familiar with the negotiations told Agence France-Presse on October 28.
Military officials from both administrations and diplomats attended the meetings in Ankara, with Turkey acting as mediator, the official said.
"Discussions have so far focused primarily on military unification, while political unity is expected to be addressed at a later stage," the official said.
The parties agreed to continue meeting, the Turkish official added.
PKK-Linked Yazidi Group to Disband, Join Iraqi Security Forces
The Sinjar Protection Units, a northern Iraqi armed Yazidi group linked to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), is handing over its weapons and integrating into Iraq's security forces, the Iraqi government announced on October 26.
"Today a ceremony will be held for the disengagement of the Sinjar Protection Units and their integration into the official Iraqi agencies, transferring security responsibility in Mount Sinjar to the federal authorities," Iraqi military spokesman Sabah al-Numan said.
The group confirmed an agreement with Baghdad, according to the Firat news agency, saying the deal would end its independent military status and integrate its 4,165 male and female fighters into Iraq's federal security system.
Canadian Opposition Senator Urges Carney to End Engagement With Turkey Over Human Rights
Leo Housakos, the Greek-Canadian Conservative leader of the opposition in Canada's Senate, criticized Prime Minister Mark Carney's engagement with Turkey during a question period on October 28, days after Carney concluded a visit to the country.
Describing Turkish President Erdogan as a "dictatorial tyrant," Housakos questioned whether the economic benefits of closer ties justified dealing with his government. "Trading our soul should never be part of any trade deal. Carney should show human rights abusers like Turkey the door," Housakos wrote in a post accompanying a video of his remarks.
In the video, Housakos accused Erdogan of imprisoning political opponents and journalists and restricting freedom of expression. He also claimed there was "no freedom of religion in that country whatsoever."
Pierre Moreau, the government's representative in the Senate, defended Ottawa's engagement with Ankara, saying Canada regularly raises human rights, labor rights and freedom of expression with its trading partners, including Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
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