ANALYSIS
"From Drones to ICBMs: The Expansion of Turkey's Defense Industry" by Mustafa Enes Esen, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
Turkey's defense industry has grown substantially over the past decade, and recent weeks have brought fresh evidence of its expanding reach with weapons revealed at a defense exhibition, new arms contracts and the use of its weapons on the battlefield. This is not coincidental. The expansion of Turkey's defense industry is a deliberate government policy, pursued through state-owned companies and private firms with direct ties to President Erdoğan and his inner circle. This growing arms export business also reinforces an expanding military footprint across multiple regions.
"Why Turkey sees opportunity in Hormuz crisis to boost Middle Corridor" by Barin Kayaoglu, Al-Monitor
According to Pinar Dost, a non-resident fellow with the Turkey Program at the Atlantic Council in Washington, Turkey is “seeking to turn [the Hormuz] disruption into an opportunity by strengthening its role as a key transit hub between East and West through the Middle Corridor.”
Turning the Middle Corridor into a reliable alternative will require more than geopolitical momentum. “This route cannot replace trade through the Strait of Hormuz or fully substitute for commerce passing through that chokepoint,” Dost said. “Rather, it should be seen as a diversification and a complementary corridor.”
The corridor can help reroute some containerized goods and non-energy trade, but it cannot absorb the same scale, speed or type of traffic that normally passes through Hormuz.
POLITICS
Opposition-Elected Mayor Joins Erdogan's AK Party
The mayor of Afyonkarahisar, elected from Turkey's main opposition party in 2024, formally joined President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's ruling AK Party on May 12.
Erdogan pinned the AK Party badge on Afyonkarahisar Mayor Burcu Koksal during an expanded provincial chairs meeting at party headquarters in Ankara. He also pinned an AK Party badge on Veysel Topcu, mayor of Dinar district in Afyonkarahisar province, at the same ceremony.
Erdogan welcomed the two mayors to the AK Party during his speech and accused the CHP leadership of engaging in "dirty politics."
Hours before Koksal formally joined the ruling party, Halk TV columnist Ismail Saymaz, citing sources familiar with the matter, said prosecutors had decided to detain her husband, Yasin Koksal, on February 19 as part of a corruption and bribery investigation, but had not acted on the decision.
Saymaz said the case involved allegations of 700 million Turkish lira in bribes and corruption, adding that he had heard the investigation included technical surveillance.
Jailed Antalya Mayor Seeks Leniency in Corruption Case
Jailed Antalya Mayor Muhittin Bocek and his son have applied to benefit from a Turkish legal provision that can allow suspects to seek reduced sentences in exchange for cooperating with prosecutors, as part of a bribery and corruption investigation targeting Antalya Metropolitan Municipality.
Bocek and his son last testified at the Antalya Courthouse in the investigation conducted by the Antalya Chief Public Prosecutor's Office. Their questioning began on the evening of May 10 and continued until the early hours of May 11.
Gokhan Bocek alleged in his statement that CHP lawmaker Veli Agbaba called him on the instruction of CHP leader Ozgur Ozel and requested 1 million euros in exchange for his father's nomination as mayor again.
Gokhan Bocek claimed he delivered the money to Agbaba through an intermediary. He also claimed that $200,000 was delivered in a bag when Ozel came to Antalya, with his father's knowledge, and that 15 million lira was provided to the party during the Konyaalti district mayoral election process.
"My son Gokhan's statement that 1 million euros was requested is true," Muhittin Bocek said.
Agbaba denied the allegations, calling them "slander that has nothing to do with reality." He filed a criminal complaint with the Ankara Chief Public Prosecutor's Office for defamation, insult, and the fabrication of a crime.
Prosecutors Order New Raids on Opposition Municipalities
The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor's Office launched a new operation targeting CHP's Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IBB) on May 15, issuing detention warrants for 13 people over allegations of tender-rigging involving two municipal directorates.
Twelve people were detained, while one suspect was reportedly abroad.
On the same day, a second wave of operations targeted Uskudar Municipality, which is also run by the CHP, resulting in the detention of seven people.
Those detained are accused of seeking financial gain from contractors and project managers by citing alleged project irregularities during applications for occupancy permits for construction projects under the municipality's responsibility.
Bill Seeks Green Passports for Teachers in Turkey
A new bill submitted to Turkey's parliament has revived debate over granting teachers eligibility for green passports, also known as special passports.
CHP Antalya lawmaker Aykut Kaya told a news conference in parliament that the bill would cover not only teachers working in state schools but also those employed in the private sector.
The proposal is expected to be discussed in the relevant parliamentary committees in the coming days.
ECONOMY
Current Account Deficit Hits $39.7 Billion in March
Turkey’s annualised current account deficit widened to $39.7 billion in March, Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek said.
In a post on his social media account, Simsek said he expected a significant decline in the annualised current account deficit in April, citing an improvement in the foreign trade balance. He said the current account balance could temporarily deteriorate in May due to the extended holiday period.
Simsek said the current account deficit was expected to rise this year due to high energy and non-energy commodity prices.
He also said foreign direct investment inflows stood at $1 billion in March, bringing annualised inflows to $12.6 billion, while Turkey’s risk premium, measured by credit default swaps, was approaching pre-war levels, and debt rollover ratios remained high.
Central Bank Raises 2026 Inflation Target to 24%
Turkey's central bank on May 14 raised its end-2026 inflation target to 24% from 16%, citing geopolitical developments, weaker foreign demand, and higher assumptions for oil, import, and food prices. The bank also said it now expects annual inflation to end 2026 at 26%, above the 15% to 21% forecast range it announced in February.
Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan announced the revisions while presenting the bank's second inflation report of the year in Istanbul.
Karahan said the bank had raised its interim inflation targets for 2026, 2027, and 2028 to 24%, 15%, and 9%, respectively. The previous targets were 16% for 2026, 9% for 2027, and 8% for 2028.
"We estimate that inflation will be 26% at the end of 2026, 15% at the end of 2027, and 9% in 2028," he added.
Belgian Queen Leads Economic Mission to Turkey
Belgian Queen Mathilde led a five-day economic mission to Turkey from May 10 to May 14, 2026, aimed at expanding investment opportunities, strengthening diplomatic ties, and deepening economic cooperation between the two countries.
The mission covered Istanbul and Ankara, though Queen Mathilde took part only in the Istanbul program from May 10 to May 12 before departing due to prior commitments.
The 428-member delegation included Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Maxime Prevot, Defence and Foreign Trade Minister Theo Francken, regional officials, representatives of 194 companies, 17 trade federations, eight universities, and public institutions.
During her visit, Queen Mathilde held closed-door talks with President Erdogan at the Vahdettin Pavilion, where the two sides discussed regional issues, bilateral trade, and the modernization of the Turkey-EU customs union.
She also met First Lady Emine Erdogan at Dolmabahce Palace for talks focused on social solidarity, education, women's rights, and cultural heritage.
The delegation visited the Baykar Ozdemir Bayraktar National Technology Center, where company executives Selcuk and Haluk Bayraktar briefed officials on Turkey's drone industry and potential European aerospace partnerships.
Queen Mathilde also visited the Istanbul Financial Center alongside Bank Governor Fatih Karahan, Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek, Family and Social Services Minister Mahinur Ozdemir Göktaş.
She also attended the Turkey-Belgium Business Forum in Istanbul and took part in a panel on the role of women in business.
At the forum, Prevot, Francken, and Turkish Trade Minister Omer Bolat signed a joint declaration aimed at developing bilateral trade ties.
The delegation later visited the Istanbul Naval Museum and met Bolat at the Belgian Consulate in Beyoglu. During the event, Bolat said Turkey and Belgium aimed to raise bilateral trade to $15 billion, up from $9.3 billion in 2025.
Turkey and Belgium signed a letter of intent on defence industry cooperation in Ankara on May 13, Turkey's Defence Ministry said. Turkish Defence Minister Yasar Guler met Belgian Defence and Foreign Trade Minister Theo Francken at the ministry before the signing. The letter was signed by Turkey's Defence Ministry, the Presidency of Defence Industries, and Belgium's Defence Ministry following the talks.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan also met Belgian Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Maxime Prevot in Ankara on May 13.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Prison Population Rises to 420,798 Despite Reforms
Turkey's prison population has risen to 420,798 according to Justice Ministry data, despite a series of recent penal reforms aimed at easing overcrowding.
Data showed that, as of May 4, 2026, 118,190 people are held in open correctional institutions and 302,608 in closed correctional institutions. Of the total, 357,283 are convicted prisoners, and 63,515 are detainees.
Among convicted prisoners, 339,706 are men, 16,284 are women, and 1,293 are children. Among detainees, 56,177 are men, 3,951 are women, and 3,387 are children.
The number of people under supervised release also remained high. Justice Ministry statistics showed that, as of April 30, 2026, 494,692 convicts are under supervision and monitoring.
Of these, 232,966 are serving their sentences under supervised release measures, while 126,073 are being monitored under judicial control.
Security Forces Arrest 43 in Nationwide Raids Targeting Gulen Movement
Turkish security forces detained 69 suspects and arrested 43 others in simultaneous raids across 33 provinces targeting the Gulen movement, the Interior Ministry said.
The ministry announced the operation on its official X account. Those detained are alleged to have coordinated with one another, held meetings, discussed illegal activities through social media platforms, and attempted to flee the country, according to the ministry's statement.
FOREIGN POLICY
Turkey Proposes $1.2 Billion NATO Fuel Pipeline Ahead of NATO Summit
Turkey has proposed building a $1.2 billion military fuel pipeline to help meet the energy needs of NATO allies on the alliance's eastern European flank, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
The proposed pipeline would run from Turkey to Romania via Bulgaria, following a push by NATO to expand its military pipeline network, the people said. The planned pipeline would not be available for civilian use.
They said a fuel pipeline from Turkey to Romania could cost about one-fifth of alternatives already proposed, including routes via Greece or Romania's western neighbours. Those routes would also be more vulnerable because they depend on maritime transport, they added.
Turkey hopes to secure support from allies for the proposal, which could be decided before or during NATO's summit in Ankara in July, the report added, citing the same sources.
Canada eyes Turkish drones as Ottawa seeks to diversify arms suppliers
Canada is considering the purchase of Turkish medium-altitude, long-endurance drones for surveillance, a move that would mark a sharp reversal after years of restrictions on defence exports to Turkey, officials told Middle East Eye. Ottawa imposed an arms embargo on Turkey in 2019 following Ankara’s military operation in Syria.
Officials cautioned that the talks remain at an early stage and may not lead to a deal. But they said the change in tone under Prime Minister Mark Carney was clear.
A second official familiar with Canada’s thinking said Turkey’s improved prospects in Ottawa were partly the result of shifting Canadian views of the United States under President Donald Trump. “Canadians don’t want to rely on American weapons anymore; they would like to diversify,” the official said, adding that Carney no longer fully trusts Washington’s security umbrella.
Carney is expected to visit Turkey during a NATO summit in Ankara in July. Officials said he is also planning a separate formal bilateral visit in October, during which several defense cooperation initiatives are expected to be announced, including projects linked to drones.
Ernst & Young Audit Finds Halkbank Met US Deal Terms
Ernst & Young has completed an independent audit of Turkey's Halkbank in a long-running case over alleged violations of U.S. sanctions on Iran and has prepared a report stating that the bank met all terms of its agreement with the United States, the pro-government Sabah newspaper reported.
Under the agreement, the case was suspended for 90 days while the bank underwent an independent audit to show it had not violated U.S. sanctions or money laundering laws.
Ernst & Young, authorized by Halkbank, prepared a report stating that the bank had fulfilled the agreement's conditions, Sabah said, adding that the process to dismiss the case is expected to be completed in June.
SDF Commander Says Turkey Visit Under Discussion
The commander of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, Mazloum Abdi, said plans for a visit to Turkey were being discussed and that a trip could include a meeting with Abdullah Ocalan, the jailed founder of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK.
Abdi made the remarks in an interview with Amberin Zaman published by Al-Monitor on May 13.
Asked whether he had received an invitation from Turkey after previously saying he would consider traveling to Ankara, Abdi said such plans were "currently in the making."
Asked whether a confirmed visit could include a meeting with Ocalan, Abdi replied, "It might."
Abdi said contacts with Turkish officials were continuing, but declined to give details. He also said the SDF believed the Syrian government should be part of any talks with Turkey.
Turkey Reopens Akcakale Border Crossing with Syria
Turkey has reopened the Akcakale border crossing with Syria after a 12-year closure, allowing civilians with passports to pass through the gate in the southeastern province of Sanliurfa. The Sanliurfa Governor's Office said people with passports could begin entering and leaving Syria through the Akcakale border crossing starting from May 12, following instructions from the Interior Ministry.
Turkish citizens, Syrians with dual citizenship, and Syrians with valid residence or work permits in Turkey will be able to apply to use the crossing, the governor's office said. Syrians under temporary protection in Turkey who cannot use the passport system may still apply to cross for trade, funerals, or other reasons, and their requests will be reviewed under the relevant rules, it added.
Turkey Weighs New Powers for Erdogan on Maritime Zones
President Tayyip Erdogan's ruling AK Party is drafting legislation that would give him authority to declare an exclusive economic zone extending up to 200 nautical miles, or 370 kilometers, from Turkey's coast, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
The proposed legislation would allow Erdogan to assert Turkish rights over fishing, mining, and drilling, as well as to establish marine parks, including in disputed waters of the Aegean and eastern Mediterranean seas, where Greece and Cyprus, both European Union members, have overlapping claims.
The move is intended as a response to claims by Greece and Cyprus in gas-rich waters of the eastern Mediterranean and to signal that Ankara cannot be sidelined, the people said.
Turkey, Kazakhstan Target $15 Billion in Trade
Turkey and Kazakhstan signed a new strategic partnership declaration during President Erdogan's state visit to Astana on May 14, setting a target to raise bilateral trade to $15 billion.
The document, titled the Declaration on Eternal Friendship and Expanded Strategic Partnership, was signed during the sixth meeting of the High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council, co-chaired by Erdogan and Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.
The two leaders said cooperation would expand in transport, energy, investment, agriculture, mining, the digital economy, and cultural ties.
The two countries also agreed to deepen cooperation in the oil and gas sector. Tokayev welcomed plans by the Turkish Petroleum Corporation to enter the Kazakh market, describing joint energy projects as a priority for bilateral ties.
Erdogan said Kazakhstan's growing role in regional connectivity and energy trade had put the country in a strategically important position, adding that Turkey wanted to increase the transportation of Kazakh oil to global markets through its territory.
Turkey Eases Customs Restrictions on Armenia
Turkey lifted some customs restrictions on Armenia on May 13, paving the way for direct trade links between the two countries in a further sign of normalizing ties.
The Turkish Foreign Ministry said the new regulations mean goods traveling from Turkey to a third country and then on to Armenia, or vice versa, can now list their final destination or country of origin as either "Armenia" or "Turkey".
Armenia welcomed the decision. "This decision is significant for expanding trade and business ties between the two countries, promoting economic connectivity in the region, and ensuring peace and prosperity," Armenian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Ani Badalyan said.
Turkey Denies Interfering in Somalia Politics
Turkey, on May 13, denied claims that it was using its military presence in Somalia to pressure opposition groups or support a political actor, after Somali media reported Turkish military activity over Mogadishu during protests against President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.
The Somali Guardian reported that two Turkish F-16 fighter jets flew over Mogadishu on the first day of opposition protests and that Turkish-supplied armoured vehicles were deployed at major intersections in the city.
Turkey's Center for Combating Disinformation, a government unit under the presidency's Directorate of Communications, said claims shared on social media that Turkey was interfering in Somalia's internal politics were "entirely unfounded."
"Turkish military personnel have absolutely no involvement in Somalia's electoral processes or internal political dynamics," the center said in a statement on X. It added that Turkey supported the peaceful continuation of Somalia's democratic process and respected the country's sovereignty and the will of the Somali people.
Pakistan Signals Turkey, Qatar May Join Saudi Defence Pact
Pakistan has indicated that Turkey and Qatar could join its mutual defence cooperation pact with Saudi Arabia, as Islamabad seeks to broaden security ties with like-minded states.
Pakistan's Defence Minister Khawaja Asif said on a local television program on May 11 night that the arrangement was being finalized. "If Qatar and Turkey also join this existing agreement, it will be a welcome development," Asif said.
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