ANALYSIS
"Changing Strategic Calculations in Ankara" by Hasim Tekines, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
In his foreign policy decisions, Erdoğan has been open to inputs from domestic politics. Increasing anti-American, anti-Western, and anti-Gulf sentiments within Turkish society have significantly influenced Turkey’s foreign relations. Erdoğan attached importance to emphasizing Turkey’s autonomy from NATO, the US, and the EU. This also led to Erdoğan’s diplomatic escalations with Trump, Merkel, Mohammed bin Zayed, and many other leaders.
However, as Erdoğan consolidated his own rule, the value of inputs coming from domestic politics has been decreasing. Today, Erdoğan exercises control over all levels and sectors of the state, the business world, the media, and civil society. His power relies less on his popularity and more on his security apparatus and the judiciary. This allows Erdoğan to pursue unpopular foreign policy choices.
"Deciphering Europe’s Relationship with Turkey" by Marc Pierini, Carnegie Europe
The core question is whether European nations or the EU should entrust their security to a formal partnership with Turkey. Seen from Brussels, the argument is that while this happens through individual sales and joint projects, it does not and cannot happen in a more structured way under current political circumstances.
Turkey has put in place a governance system squarely at odds with the EU’s democratic requirements, while still pretending to keep EU accession at the top of its foreign policy priorities. The end result of these contradictions is a genuine lack of trust from Europe in Turkey’s leadership in an era of major geopolitical upheaval and direct threats to the European continent. In this context, it is arguable that an EU security and political alliance with Turkey would be too unsettling to be worth the risks.
If Ankara is to participate in Western European efforts to beef up Europe’s defense, it will likely be through more bilateral commercial and industrial agreements, not as part of a political grand bargain.
POLITICS
Ozel Claims Justice Minister Wiretapped Erdogan’s Calls
Prosecutors have opened an investigation into the main opposition leader, Ozgur Ozel, after he alleged that Justice Minister Akin Gurlek had told people around him he was secretly listening to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s phone calls.
Speaking on Sozcu TV, Ozel said Gurlek communicated with Erdogan through an encrypted phone line, passed along information about judicial processes and told associates: “I’m wiretapping Erdogan too, they can’t do anything to me.”
Ozel also alleged that Gurlek recorded phone calls and gave Erdogan false information linked to the case against jailed Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu.
Gurlek denied the accusations, calling them baseless slander and “an open attack” on national security. In a statement published by the justice ministry, he said Ozel was trying to cover what he described as his own political exhaustion with fabricated scenarios and said legal action would follow.
Within hours, the Bakirkoy Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office in Istanbul said it had opened an investigation into Ozel on suspicion of publicly spreading misleading information. It said his televised remarks were deemed capable of disturbing public order and peace.
Court Delays CHP Congress Case to July 1
A Turkish court on May 6 postponed the case alleging irregularities at the main opposition Republican People’s Party’s (CHP) 2023 leadership congress, which brought current party leader Ozgur Ozel to power, until July 1.
The fifth hearing in the case was held at Ankara’s 26th Criminal Court of First Instance. The court delayed proceedings and ruled that businessman Adem Soytekin, who reportedly gave a “confession” statement in a separate Istanbul municipality investigation, would be heard at the next session.
Former CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu is listed as the complainant in the indictment prepared by Ankara prosecutors. Other defendants include senior CHP officials and mayors from several municipalities.
CHP's Afyonkarahisar Mayor Says She Will Join Ruling Party
Burcu Koksal, the mayor of Afyonkarahisar, announced on May 8 that she would leave the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and join the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) at the party’s expanded provincial chairs meeting on May 12. “Yes, I have made a decision. I will join the AK Party at the expanded provincial chairs meeting,” Koksal said.
Koksal denied making the decision under pressure, saying there was “no threat or coercion” behind her move and that she was not the subject of any criminal investigation. Koksal was elected mayor in March 2024 from the main opposition CHP, ending 20 years of AK Party rule in the city.
29 Detained in New Operation in Imamoglu-Linked Tender Investigation
Turkish authorities detained 29 people after prosecutors launched an investigation into what they described as the “activities of a criminal organisation established under the leadership of Ekrem Imamoglu,” the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office said.
Prosecutors issued detention warrants for 30 suspects, including 2 senior officials. Twenty-nine were taken into custody, while one suspect was abroad, the prosecutor’s office said. The suspects are accused of manipulating public tenders through a municipal subsidiary.
Bahceli Proposes Formal Role for Jailed PKK Leader Ocalan in Peace Process
Devlet Bahceli, leader of Turkey’s far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), has proposed giving jailed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Ocalan a formal role in Turkey’s renewed peace initiative, suggesting he could be named “coordinator for the peace process and transition to politics.”
Speaking at his party’s parliamentary group meeting on May 5, Bahceli said the next stage of the process should involve “political and legal steps” and argued that Ocalan’s status could no longer be ignored. “If there is a status gap for Abdullah Ocalan, this gap should be addressed in a way that serves the goal of a terrorism-free Turkey,” Bahceli said. “I propose that this position be called the 'Peace Process and Politicisation Coordination Office. ' Other formulations could also be considered, he added.
Tuncer Bakirhan, co-chair of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party), supported Bahceli’s remarks during his party’s parliamentary group meeting later the same day, calling the MHP leader’s comments “historic.” “We endorse the framework Mr Bahceli put forward today in his group meeting regarding status and legal steps,” Bakirhan said. He also proposed setting up a mechanism to monitor and safeguard the process, naming it the ‘peace monitoring and follow-up board’.
ECONOMY
Turkish Inflation Jumps to 4.18% in April as War Fallout Weighs
Turkish monthly inflation surged to 4.18% in April, pushing annual inflation to 32.37%, official data showed on May 4, exceeding forecasts. The biggest monthly price rises came in clothing and footwear, where prices rose 8.94%, and housing, which increased 7.99%, Turkish Statistical Institute data showed. Prices in the key food and non-alcoholic drinks sector rose 3.7%.
Analysts said the jump in consumer price inflation could pressure the central bank to raise its inflation forecasts and either hike interest rates or keep policy tight for longer than planned.
The data also showed the domestic producer price index rose 3.17% month-on-month in April, for an annual increase of 28.59%.
Turkey's Red Meat Output Falls 10.5% in 2025
Turkey's total red meat production fell 10.5 percent in 2025 from a year earlier to 1,885,130 tons, the Turkish Statistical Institute said in its 2025 red meat production statistics. Production stood at 2,105,895 tons in 2024, according to the data.
Beef accounted for 69.7 percent of total red meat output in 2025, followed by lamb at 24.9 percent, goat at 4.8 percent and buffalo at 0.7 percent.
Turkish Company Signs Major Drone Export Deal
Turkey’s Pasifik Technology has signed a framework contract with an undisclosed country for 101,035 unmanned systems, including 100,000 FPV kamikaze drones, the company said.
The package covers five unmanned air and ground platforms. It includes 100,000 MERKUT FPV kamikaze drones, 10 ALPIN unmanned helicopters, 25 DUMRUL mini unmanned helicopters developed by Titra Technology, 500 DELI tactical kamikaze drones and 500 KORGAN autonomous ground support and surveillance units.
Pasifik Technology did not disclose the buyer or the value of the contract. The agreement is one of the largest single drone export deals publicly announced by a Turkish defence company.
Autoliv to Wind Down Manufacturing Operations in Turkey
Swedish car safety equipment maker Autoliv said it will wind down its manufacturing operations in Turkey as it reduces capacity amid a slowdown in the global automotive industry.
Autoliv’s operations in Turkey employ 2,200 people, about 4% of its global workforce, and produce parts such as steering wheels, airbags, and seatbelts. The company said production would be transferred to its other facilities in Europe and the Middle East region.
The full closure of the Turkish manufacturing operations in the industrial province of Kocaeli, in northwestern Turkey, is expected to happen in the first half of 2028, the company said.
CATL to develop EV models with Turkey’s Togg
Chinese electric vehicle battery maker CATL announced on May 7 that it would co-develop cars based on its Panshi EV chassis with Turkish electric vehicle maker Togg, marking the first overseas supply of the Chinese EV platform.
The two companies will jointly develop three B-segment models, with the first model scheduled for mass production in 2027, CATL said in a statement. Togg said the partnership would support the development of new electric vehicles for the Turkish market, adding that the models are expected to become available in Turkey gradually from the middle of next year.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Turkey Blocks CHP’s Website Citing National Security
A website announced by Turkey’s main opposition CHP leader Ozgur Ozel as a new party “service” was blocked on the grounds of protecting national security and public order, the Freedom of Expression Association said.
Ozel introduced the website, akpden.com, at his party’s parliamentary group meeting on May 5, saying it would publish information on highways, bridges, the sale of profitable businesses and taxes on consumer goods ranging from cars to game consoles.
The Association said the website had been blocked on the grounds of protecting national security and public order. The site is now inaccessible from Turkey.
Security Forces Detain 57 in Gulen-Linked Operations
Turkish police detained 57 people in three separate operations across multiple provinces as part of an ongoing crackdown on the Gulen movement, authorities said.
In an operation on May 5 led by Istanbul counterterrorism police, 25 people were detained in coordinated raids across six provinces. The suspects were accused of continuing the group's activities and of recruiting new members through shared student housing.
In another operation led by the Malatya Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office, police detained 23 people in raids in Malatya and 16 other provinces, including Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir. The detainees were accused of activities linked to the Gulen movement.
In a separate operation overseen by the Izmir Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office, police detained nine people who had been convicted of membership in a terrorist organisation over alleged links to the Gulen movement and whose sentences had been finalised.
European Court Reverses its Chamber Judgment in Gulen-Linked Conviction
The European Court of Human Rights’ Grand Chamber ruled on May 5 that Turkey violated the rights of a man convicted of membership in a terrorist organisation over alleged links to the Gulen movement. The ruling reversed the court’s chamber judgment dated August 27, 2024, which had found no violation of either Article 3 or Article 7.
In the case of Yasak v. Turkey, the Strasbourg-based court found by 11 votes to six that Turkey had violated Article 7 of the European Convention on Human Rights, which prohibits punishment without law. It also ruled, by 9 votes to 8, that Turkey had violated Article 3, which bans inhuman or degrading treatment.
FOREIGN POLICY
Turkey Plans ICBM Test that Could Significantly Expand Military Reach
Turkey is preparing to test a missile that could put much of Europe and the Middle East within reach and eventually support the launch of real-time intelligence satellites, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the plans.
Turkey showcased an intercontinental ballistic missile at an expo this week, joining the United States, Russia and a handful of other countries with such weapons, the report said. The missile, named Yildirimhan after an Ottoman sultan, has a range of 6,000 kilometres (3,750 miles) and could be test-fired in Somalia at the earliest, later this year, the people said.
The missile’s unveiling marks progress toward Turkey’s ambitions in the space arms race, the report said. Turkey plans to use similar technology to place satellites in orbit to strengthen its independent operational capabilities as a NATO member, the people said.
Israeli Broadcaster Alleges Hamas Members Trained in Turkey
Israel’s state broadcaster KAN alleged that Hamas members received firearms, combat tactics and UAV training at public shooting clubs in Turkey, a claim Ankara denied as “entirely baseless.”
The report said Hamas operatives had carried out military training on Turkish soil by exploiting gaps in civilian law and government licensing systems to build combat capabilities under the cover of ordinary civilian life.
KAN said the alleged Hamas members presented themselves as civilian hobbyists, wore civilian clothes and enrolled in professional drone-pilot courses, obtaining official Turkish licences to fly drones.
Israeli officials cited in the report said the training was intended to prepare the men for deployment to Lebanon, Jordan and the occupied West Bank for possible future attacks on Israel.
Turkey’s Presidency Directorate of Communications denied the Israeli media reports, saying that the claims were “entirely baseless.”
Iraq Finalising Purchase of Turkish Air Defence Systems
Iraq is finalising a deal to buy 20 air defence systems from Turkey, a senior Iraqi defence official told The National.
Iraq’s skies have been “filled with drones” during the Iran war, and the new systems will help intercept projectiles targeting oilfields, diplomatic missions and other sites, Deputy Army Chief of Staff for Operations Lt Gen Saad Harbiye said in an interview at the Saha defence show in Istanbul.
Harbiye declined to disclose the deal's value or identify the Turkish companies supplying the systems, but said they were state-owned enterprises. “Turkish defence systems are top-notch and low cost, and we are their neighbour,” he said, explaining Iraq’s decision to buy from Turkish companies.
Harbiye said Iraq was also exploring closer cooperation with Turkey in cybersecurity, an area where Turkish firms are expanding their capabilities.
Turkey, Saudi Arabia Sign Visa Waiver Deal
Turkey and Saudi Arabia signed an agreement on May 6 to mutually waive visa requirements for holders of diplomatic and special passports, known in Turkey as “green passports.”
The agreement was signed in Ankara by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and his Saudi counterpart, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, after the third meeting of the Turkish-Saudi Coordination Council. The deal will allow eligible passport holders to travel between the two countries without a visa for specified periods.
Fidan and Prince Faisal also held bilateral talks and led the Turkish and Saudi delegations at the council meeting. The talks focused on expanding cooperation in regional security, connectivity and economic ties, according to a Turkish diplomatic source who briefed journalists ahead of the meeting.
Turkey Plans Bill on Disputed Maritime Claims
Turkey is preparing to submit a bill to parliament asserting maritime jurisdiction in disputed areas of the Aegean and Mediterranean seas, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
The draft law would mark Turkey’s first step toward formalising its claims and officially declaring ownership of potential natural gas resources, the report said.
The bill is expected to set out Turkey’s position in official form for the first time, according to the people cited by Bloomberg. It was not immediately clear when the bill would be debated.
Turkish Vice President Meets Armenian PM in Yerevan
Turkish Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz met Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Yerevan on May 4, marking the highest-level visit by a Turkish official to Armenia since 2008.
Yilmaz represented Turkish President Erdogan at the eighth European Political Community (EPC) summit in the Armenian capital, where leaders gathered under the theme “Building the Future: Unity and Stability in Europe.”
In a statement on X, Yilmaz said he held a “comprehensive and productive” meeting with Pashinyan, discussing bilateral ties and cooperation in transportation, customs, energy, digital infrastructure and connectivity.
The two sides also signed a memorandum of understanding for the joint restoration of the Ani Bridge. The memorandum was signed under the auspices of Yilmaz and Pashinyan by Serdar Kilic, Turkey’s special representative for the normalisation process, and Ruben Rubinyan, Armenia’s special envoy.
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