"Ankara Expects the Iranian Regime to Survive but Risks for Turkey Persist" by Mustafa Enes Esen, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
Ankara remains convinced that the Iranian regime will survive this ordeal, even after the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. For this reason, Ankara has adopted a dual-track approach: while unsuccessfully lobbying for an end to the war, it has simultaneously kept its channels open with Tehran.
The Turkish government hopes Iran will avoid targeting a NATO member. Nonetheless, the March 4 incident suggests that Turkey should not assume its neutrality guarantees security. Given the country’s limited air defense capabilities and concerns about potential threats to critical infrastructure such as the BTC pipeline, Ankara may need to take precautionary steps. Although Turkey is unlikely to invoke NATO’s Article 5, it could consider initiating Article 4 consultations, as it did in 2003 during the Iraq War, when NATO allies deployed Patriot missile defense systems to Turkey.
"An Urgent Need to Contain Turkey" by Bradley Martin, Wall Street Journal
While neutralizing the regional threat posed by Iran, the U.S. and Israel must ensure that Turkey doesn’t take its place. Should NATO continue its relationship with Turkey? What should its role be in the Middle East after the Iranian regime falls? When considering these questions, the U.S. shouldn’t forget that Turkey opposes U.S. foreign policy and is a headache for its allies.
"Turkey Has Two Key Interests in the Iran Conflict" by Alper Coskun, The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Ankara’s expectation from Washington is twofold. First, that it manages the confrontation with Iran without triggering direct security concerns for Turkey or any form of prolonged regional disruption. Second, that it restrains Israel, including its impulse to confront Turkey as a rival, just like last spring when Trump publicly advised Netanyahu to be reasonable when it comes to his disputes with Turkey.
If the confrontation with Iran deepens, particularly in ways that involve regime change with a spillover effect on Turkey or security implications as a result of expanded cooperation with hostile Kurdish militants, this war could quickly evolve into another fault line in U.S.-Turkish relations. Avoiding such an outcome will require careful management and sustained diplomatic engagement focused on ending the conflict soon and working toward a self-sustaining regional security architecture that brings a shared sense of security and stability to the wider region. Otherwise, Washington may fail the stress test.
"The Iran War and Ankara’s Three Strategic Scenarios” by Suleyman Ozeren, Manara Magazine
Though not too promising in the short term, the Iran war could present Ankara with some promising options. First, if Ankara maintains its cautious neutrality and leans toward the Gulf States, it could find its role elevated in the region. Iranian barrages of missiles and drones against Gulf states have torpedoed any future diplomatic normalization between the two sides of the Gulf. Even if they reach a ceasefire or an agreement, security concerns will persist. On the other hand, US security guarantees for allies in the Middle East will be questionable if the current campaign ends with a political disaster, even if not a military one. Turkey could fill this security vacuum, by deepening relations with Gulf countries.
Turkey opposition leader accuses Erdogan of joining "new American plan" on Iran
Speaking at his party's weekly parliamentary group meeting on March 3, Turkey's main opposition leader Ozgur Ozel accused President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of becoming "part of a new American plan" as fighting around Iran escalated. Ozel said Ankara should prioritize diplomacy rather than align with Washington and Israel.
"Erdogan today is part of a new American plan," Ozel said. He added that Erdogan "has neither a game plan nor does he see the game," while U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu "know what they are doing."
Court extends detention of 105, including Imamoglu, ahead of March 9 trials
In the fourth and final pre-trial detention review ahead of proceedings set to start on March 9, the court ruled to keep 105 people in custody, including Ekrem Imamoglu, the CHP's presidential candidate and Istanbul mayor.
Prosecutors are seeking a prison sentence of 828 to 2,352 years for Imamoglu on 142 separate charges. The indictment alleges that he is the "founder and leader of the organization."
Turkish court orders arrest of CHP Bolu mayor
A Turkish court on March 2 ordered the arrest of Bolu Mayor Tanju Ozcan, a member of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), and the Interior Ministry later suspended him from office pending trial. Authorities detained Ozcan on February 28.
The Bolu 2nd Criminal Magistrate of Peace ordered Ozcan's arrest on charges of misconduct as part of an investigation into alleged extortion involving supermarket chains.
Deputy Mayor Suleyman Can was also arrested, while city council member Ali Sariyildiz was placed under house arrest for four months. Ten other suspects were released under judicial supervision.
Turkey's economy grew 3.6% in 2025, TurkStat says
The Turkish economy expanded by 3.6% in 2025, official data released on March 2 showed.
The Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) said gross domestic product (GDP) rose 3.4% year-on-year in the fourth quarter. Full-year growth accelerated from 3.2% in 2024 to 3.6% in 2025, according to the data.
In current prices, TurkStat said GDP jumped 41.3% in 2025 to 63 trillion 20.9 billion Turkish lira. Per capita income came in at 712,200 lira, or $18,040.
By sector, construction recorded the strongest annual growth at 10.8%, while information and communications expanded by 8%. Agriculture contracted 8.8% over the year, data revealed.
On the external side, exports of goods and services fell 0.3% in 2025, while imports increased 4.9%.
Annual inflation edges up to 31.5% in February
Turkey’s annual inflation rate rose slightly to 31.5% in February, up from 30.7% in January, ending several months of decline, official data showed on March 3.
Consumer prices increased 2.96% month on month, compared with 4.8% in January, driven mainly by housing and food costs, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) said.
A separate estimate from the Independent Inflation Research Group (ENAG) put monthly inflation at 4.01% in February. ENAG calculated annual inflation at 54.14%.
Turkey spent $12 billion to steady lira amid global volatility
Turkey spent about $12 billion to support the lira during a week of global market volatility triggered by the war in Iran, Bloomberg reported. The sum equals roughly 15% of Turkey's foreign-currency reserves, according to the report.
The Turkish central bank tightened liquidity conditions before markets opened on March 2, Bloomberg said. When trading began, lenders sold dollars to curb volatility, according to traders familiar with the transactions. The traders said dollar sales declined as the week progressed, and they did not observe similar transactions on March 5.
The central bank holds roughly $200 billion, including net foreign-currency reserves and gold, the report said. Analysts cited by Bloomberg said the buffer could allow interventions to continue for now, but warned the approach may be harder to sustain if further shocks persist.
EBRD chief urges Turkey to stay course on inflation fight
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) President Odile Renaud-Basso said on March 5 that Turkey must "stay on course" in its fight against inflation, while praising steps the central bank took this week to contain market fallout from the war in the Middle East. Renaud-Basso spoke during a four-day visit to Turkey that included meetings with Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek and Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz.
She also mentioned that the EBRD is assessing Turkey's plan to invest about $30 billion over the next decade in a high-voltage electricity transmission system. "We are looking into that," Renaud-Basso said. "It is part of the discussion we have with the government."
Draft EU industry law may treat some Turkish goods as EU-origin
A draft European Union law designed to boost the bloc’s industrial production could allow certain products from countries tied to the EU through a customs union or a free trade agreement, including Turkey, to be treated as EU-origin under specific conditions.
The European Commission adopted a legislative proposal on March 4 as the Industrial Accelerator Act. The package would link “Made in EU” and low-carbon requirements to parts of public procurement and public support aimed at expanding manufacturing capacity and reducing reliance on external suppliers.
Turkey’s Trade Minister Omer Bolat welcomed what he called recognition of the customs union relationship in the proposed framework. He said the measure could support investment and competitiveness across shared supply chains, citing the automotive sector. Bolat added that the move could deepen sectoral integration between Turkey and the EU and speed up the green and digital transformation of value chains.
Turkey, Canada sign nuclear energy MoU on potential CANDU reactors
Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar announced on March 3 that Turkey and Canada signed a memorandum of understanding in the nuclear energy sector.
Bayraktar said the MoU was signed between the Turkish Nuclear Energy Corporation (TUNAS) and Canadian nuclear energy company AtkinsRealis. He said the framework envisions developing nuclear power plants in Turkey and includes a detailed assessment of whether Canada’s CANDU reactor technology could be applied in Turkey.
The agreement was signed on the sidelines of the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) Congress. Canadian Energy Minister Tim Hodgson attended the signing ceremony alongside Bayraktar.
"We attach great importance to the potential for joint work between the two countries to diversify our energy mix and increase the capacity of nuclear energy," Bayraktar said.
Canadian SSR Mining to sell 80% stake in Turkey's Copler mine to Cengiz Holding
Canada's SSR Mining announced on March 4 that it signed a binding memorandum of understanding to sell its 80% stake in Turkey's Copler mine to Cengiz Holding A.S. for $1.5 billion in cash. The company suspended operations at Copler in 2024 after a landslide left at least nine miners missing.
It said the agreement, expected to close in the third quarter, covers all of its mining licenses and assets in eastern Anatolia, including Copler and nearby satellite deposits.
SSR Mining also said it is reviewing its remaining presence in Turkey, including its 20% interest in the Hod Maden development project.
U.S. court postpones Halkbank conference in Iran sanctions evasion case
A court conference in the U.S. government's criminal case against Turkish state-owned lender Halkbank was postponed from March 3 to March 11, according to a filing in Manhattan federal court.
U.S. prosecutors accuse Halkbank of fraud, money laundering, and conspiracy for allegedly helping Iran evade U.S. economic sanctions. The filing said both parties requested the adjournment.
The court document did not give a reason for the postponement. The scheduling change comes about five months after the U.S. Supreme Court declined to review a federal appeals court ruling that allowed the prosecution to move forward.
Turkey arrests 182 in two-week sweep over alleged Gulen links
Turkish authorities have arrested 182 of the 298 people detained in nationwide operations over the past two weeks on allegations of links to the Gulen movement.
In a statement dated March 3, the Interior Ministry said security forces carried out raids across 38 provinces, detaining 298 people. Of those, 182 were formally arrested, and 75 were released under judicial supervision, while legal proceedings continue for the remaining detainees.
Authorities accused the detainees of involvement in activities allegedly connected to the movement, including providing assistance to families of people imprisoned over suspected Gulen ties and sharing social media posts that authorities said aligned with the group.
CoE platform flags Turkey as hostile to independent journalism
Turkey ranks among Europe’s most hostile environments for independent journalism, with jailed reporters, widespread legal harassment, intimidation, and censorship, according to a new report by the Council of Europe’s Platform to Promote the Protection of Journalism and Safety of Journalists.
The report lists Turkey among the countries with the highest number of jailed journalists, putting the total at 24. It also places Turkey among the leading sources of alerts on the platform, which tracks alleged press freedom violations across Council of Europe member states.
The report further cited concerns about political interference in public media. It referenced the 2025 Media Pluralism Monitor, which ranked Turkey third among countries most at risk of political interference in public broadcasting.
Ruling AK Party proposes social media ban for children under 15
The ruling AK Party submitted a draft bill to parliament on March 4 that would ban children under 15 from accessing social media.
Under the proposal, social media companies would have to establish age-verification systems and provide parental control tools to improve child safety online. The bill also says platforms must offer separate, safe services for users over 15 and remove harmful content within one hour in emergency situations.
Leyla Sahin Usta, deputy head of the AK Party's parliamentary group, said social media and gaming platforms would have six months to comply if the bill becomes law. Companies that fail to comply could face fines of up to 3% of global revenue or bandwidth restrictions, the bill says.
U.S. advances $660 million bomb sale to Israel involving Turkish-owned producer
The Trump administration is moving ahead with a major arms sale to Israel worth about $660 million, including more than 27,000 bombs, Israeli outlet Ynetnews reported. The U.S. State Department announced the sale on March 6, and the package includes thousands of MK-80 series bombs and related equipment.
According to the official breakdown, the deal includes 12,000 BLU-110A/B bombs, each weighing about half a ton, valued at about $151.8 million.
Ynetnews reported that project documents list Repkon USA, based in Garland, Texas, as the prime contractor. The company is a subsidiary of Turkish defense manufacturer Repkon. In March 2025, Repkon bought the Garland production facility from U.S. defense contractor General Dynamics. The report said the factory is the only facility in the United States capable of producing bomb bodies for the MK-80 series.
Turkey denies Reuters report on MI6 role in protecting Syria's Sharaa
Turkey's intelligence agency asked Britain's MI6 last month to take a larger role in protecting Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa after recent assassination plots, Reuters reported, citing five people familiar with the matter. The sources, including Syrian and foreign officials, pointed to rising concern over a series of reported Islamic State plots to kill Sharaa.
A Turkish source cited by Reuters said the National Intelligence Organization (MIT) sought additional MI6 support after one incident last month. A senior Syrian security source said the request followed what he described as a "high-risk assassination plot," adding that MIT, MI6, and Syrian authorities were regularly sharing intelligence.
Reuters said it was not clear what MIT specifically asked MI6 to do, or whether MI6 had assumed any new responsibilities.
After the report was published, Turkey denied that MIT had made such a request. The Turkish presidency said the agency maintains effective cooperation with the international intelligence community and Syrian security units in counterterrorism efforts, but said the report was not true.
Turkey Lifts Domestic Measures on HTS After UN Delisting
Turkey has lifted domestic measures tied to UN terrorism sanctions against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), according to a presidential decision published in the Official Gazette.
The document, dated Feb. 28, 2026, and published on March 1, cited UN Security Council sanctions resolutions and said it removed provisions that had extended Turkey’s implementation of UN asset-freeze measures to the “Al-Nusrah Front for the People of the Levant,” also known as HTS.
The move follows a UN delisting announced on Feb. 27, when the UN Security Council sanctions committee removed the entity from the ISIL (Daesh) and Al-Qaida sanctions list, lifting measures such as the asset freeze, travel ban, and arms embargo under that regime.
Syria reopens northern air corridors to Turkey, resumes Aleppo flights
The Syrian Civil Aviation Authority announced that it will reopen air corridors in the northern sector of Syrian airspace toward Turkey and resume operations at Aleppo International Airport starting at 00:00 on March 4, 2026.
The authority said the move aims to meet aviation safety and security requirements while maintaining a minimum level of air connectivity. The authority added that all other air corridors will remain closed and that Damascus International Airport will remain shut until further notice.
Syria, Turkish Maarif Foundation sign MoU to expand education cooperation
The Syrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates signed a memorandum of understanding with the Turkish Maarif Foundation on March 4 in Damascus to strengthen educational cooperation. Syria's Qutaiba Qadish and Nuh Yilmaz, Turkey's ambassador to Damascus, signed the agreement.
The MoU seeks to formalize the Maarif Foundation's work in Syria in coordination with the Ministries of Education and Higher Education. It also outlines plans to establish schools from kindergarten through secondary level, support higher education through scholarships and scientific research, and provide students with technical and vocational skills.
Turkey closely monitors PJAK as Reuters cites Israeli support in western Iran
Turkey is closely monitoring the activities of the outlawed PJAK group in Iran and broader regional developments in coordination with relevant state institutions following U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, the National Defense Ministry said.
The ministry stated that Turkey supports the territorial integrity of neighboring countries and opposes any attempt to divide them.
It also rejected social media posts and media reports claiming there has been a mass migration from Iran toward Turkey's borders in the wake of the latest developments.
Reuters reported on March 6 that Israel has been bombing parts of western Iran to support Iranian Kurdish militias seeking to exploit the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran to seize towns near the frontier, citing three sources familiar with Israel's talks with the factions. The sources said an initial objective would be to take Iranian territory along the border. One Kurdish source said the factions aimed to seize towns including Oshnavieh and Piranshahr.
Separately, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on March 7 that U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told him Washington has no intention of arming Kurdish groups in Iran. Fidan made the comments at a press conference after an informal meeting of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) Council of Foreign Ministers in Istanbul, adding that Turkey is using all available diplomatic channels to help end the war.
Turkey considers deploying F-16s to Cyprus
Turkey is considering deploying F-16 fighter jets to Cyprus, a Turkish defense ministry source said on March 7. The source said the move is among steps under consideration as part of phased planning aimed at ensuring the security of the Turkish Cypriot state in the north of the island, amid conflict spreading across the region.
Turkey says NATO shot down Iranian missile headed toward its airspace
Turkey said NATO air defenses destroyed an Iranian ballistic missile headed into Turkish airspace on March 4, though it was not clear where the missile was ultimately intended to strike.
The Turkish Defense Ministry said the missile flew over Iraq and Syria before NATO air and missile defense systems stationed in the eastern Mediterranean Sea intercepted it. The ministry said the incident caused no casualties.
NATO condemned Iran's targeting of Turkey and said it stood firmly with all allies.
NATO said on March 5 that it has strengthened its ballistic missile defence posture. “Yesterday NATO increased its alliance-wide ballistic missile defence posture,” spokesman Colonel Martin O’Donnell said in a statement shared on social media.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan conveyed a protest to his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araqchi, during a call after the incident, a Turkish diplomatic source said.
Iraq halts Kurdistan oil exports to Turkey amid regional conflict
Iraq has halted oil exports from its semi-autonomous Kurdistan region to the port of Ceyhan in Turkey, Bloomberg reported, citing people with direct knowledge of the situation.
The sources said around 200,000 barrels a day of shipments have been shut in after producers cut output as a precaution amid the widening conflict in the Middle East. Only about 50,000 barrels a day are currently being produced for local consumption, the sources said.
Sharif, Erdogan discuss Middle East tensions in phone call
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said he spoke by telephone with Turkish President Erdogan on March 3 to discuss the escalating situation in the Middle East.
In a post on X, Sharif stated that he reaffirmed Pakistan's full solidarity with Gulf countries and expressed Islamabad's readiness to play a constructive role in promoting de-escalation and dialogue.
Sharif added that the two leaders also exchanged views on recent developments in Afghanistan and agreed to stay in close and frequent contact in their shared pursuit of peace and stability in the region.
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